Analyst: GTAIV could best Halo 3's debut

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey says Rockstar's latest could "conceivably" ship 9.5 million in the first week, more than twice Microsoft's 4.4 million.


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In announcing Halo 3's first-week sales of $300 million, Microsoft called it "the fastest-selling video game ever." That record might be relatively short-lived, if a new report from Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey proves accurate.

Hickey attributes the success of Halo 3 to a growing fan base for the franchise, a general demand for high-quality content, and the game's release early in the current generation's life cycle. Those same factors will be playing into next year's release of Grand Theft Auto IV, Hickey said. In addition, the Xbox 360 installed user base will be significantly larger by the time GTA IV comes out, and the addition of a PlayStation 3 edition of the game should boost sales significantly as well. Putting those factors together, Hickey suggests that the market is generally underestimating the next GTA game's initial success.

With Halo 3, Hickey believes Microsoft shipped 5.2 million copies of the game for its first week of release, and sold through 4.4 million. That leads to a 67 percent attach rate (percentage of all console owners who purchased the game) in the US, Hickey said. He believes that rate dips to 46 percent when adding in Europe.

Although Hickey doesn't think Grand Theft Auto IV will sell to as large a percentage of Xbox 360 owners, he notes that the expanding installed user base for the Xbox 360 and PS3 could offset whatever shortcoming there is. Even with a projected attach rate of only 20 percent (which Hickey stresses is very conservative), that would indicate first-week sales for the game of 3.5 million units. Hickey seemed more comfortable with a 30 percent attach rate, which would suggest first-week shipments of 5.3 million copies. But there's also a best-case scenario.

"If the upcoming release of GTA IV attached at the same rate as Halo 3," Hickey wrote, "the title could conceivably ship 9.5 million units of [the] game in the first week, producing an astonishing $466 million in sales." In such a case, Hickey projects first-week sales of the game would approach 8.1 million copies.

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Avatar image for a1gaius

You can't compare a multi-platform game with a console exclusive!! UNFAIR

Avatar image for StarKiller2127

@zeroninetyseven your just a halo xbox and halo fanboy by the way you talk. no people who baught the PS3 are not retards but some are fanboys i will admit that but the PS3 is a good system it is just suffering from bad choices from it's creators. the system it self is great. and no im no fanboy i own both a xbox and ps3 and will get a wii in a few months.

Avatar image for catach

Count me in 9500001!!! GTA is the best game of all time, period. It's the real "evil" life simulator...we could have a "good" gta too, it would be cool..

Avatar image for jamesfffan

@BWSword 1. they just knocked £56 off 60gb ps3 lol, it also includes 2 games (£349). 2. theyve just released the 40gb version selling for £299 inc. vat.

Avatar image for bigmick07

the problem is i know so many parents that let their kids play halo 3 but won't evne let them come close to GTA IV, so i don't think GTA IV will even come close to breaking halo 3's sales. P.S. I will do all that i can to find a way that i can buy GTA IV.

Avatar image for BWSword

they need to lower the price down first on ps3 and maybe they might have a chance...

Avatar image for smc_sewer

Fists1 your saying GTAIV has no hype.... for years rockstar left it to the their fans to create the hype, players start hanging out for the next game even before there finished the current one. Rockstar mostly only gave you a very small taste of the game in press releases I was surprised that we got a look at GTAIV so early. Besides if any GTA fans are the same as me they,ll get the game on the first day it comes out and will play it until they can no longer stay awake such is the drug GTA is. The fact that it always seems to be delayed even adds to the need to want the next installment. GTA forever.

Avatar image for zeroninetyseven

ROFLMFAO! This Mike Hickey guy or whatever must have bumped his head somethin' fierce before this article was written, because he'd have to be an idiot to believe GTA IV will out-sell Halo 3. Granted, it will also be on PS3, but who was even stupid enough to buy a PS3 anyway besides the PlayStation loyalists, hmm? You have the lack of sales the PS3 has against GTA IV. You have the controversy that went along with San Andreas that's now against GTA IV. And I HIGHLY doubt more Xbox 360 owners who did and the few who didn't buy Halo 3 will buy GTA IV. In case they've forgotten, Halo 3 set the record in entertainment in America. That's books, movies, magazines, television shows. Halo 3 beat both Spiderman 3 and Harry Potter in sales. GTA IV won't get ANYWHERE near that. GTA IV will be a great game, but why don't they try stickin' more to reality. It might help them a little more. They seem to think more copies (the 9.5 million) will help them out. HELLO ROCKSTAR!!! Even with how many people who bought Halo 3, 4.4 million copies was still too many. There were plenty of copies left over as Bungie stated: "Nobody will be left out to finish the fight.". And that they overly fulfilled. I'm sorry Rockstar, but... you're idiots!

Avatar image for Xbox_Gamer_117

Of course GTA-IV can outsell Halo-3!! It'll be in 2 platforms.....:|

Avatar image for Fists1

even with multiple platforms it is going to be hard for it to out do halo in first week sales because everyone was hyped for it ages ago then they delayed it and now everyone is just "i'll get it when i get bored of these other 8 topsellinggames i bought a month ago"

Avatar image for Homerj

I'm not going to really dig on GTA, as many people seem to have enjoyed the series a lot. But there are a lot of people that see it as nothing more than the video game equivalent of gangsta rap. I dont think its going to have nearly the attach rate that the Halo series has seen. It seems that a lot of the raw sales figures have been due to underage kids who only want it because they think its "stickin it to the man." The one thing it will do without a doubt is boost the situation for PS3, as there are simply no quality, high visibility titles releasing for it in the forseeable future. The problem is numbers though....even if it sells on 90% of the PS3's in the NA/EU markets...youre looking at 3 million copies tops.

Avatar image for ocdog45

its jsut gonna get worse and worse to be honest. if gta does beat it, then you got mgs4, then you got gears 2, it won't stop.....

Avatar image for madmartindale

See this is why i don't often appear at multi console websites, because all PS2/PS3 owners seem to be ****s On topic, GTA might (and thats a big might) out sell Halo 3, because its a mutli format game. I love Halo 3 the most, but i like GTA, simple, piss easy, fun. Even if it does out sell, its in no way a point up for Sony and fan boy army. Nb- Halo has another absolutely massive market that GTA wont touch. Multiplayer.

Avatar image for Olly464

"Halo 3? MORE LIKE FAILO 3 LOL M I RITE GUYZ? In all seriousness....." rofl

Avatar image for Blackhawk692

I think the forgot to add in the controversy that San Andreas had, parents aren't going to let their kids buy games that might have more mature content that halo 3 doesn't, because seriously it is almost a T game and the lack of PS3 owners

Avatar image for Pie_FOREVER

Halo 3? MORE LIKE FAILO 3 LOL M I RITE GUYZ? In all seriousness, it's seems logical that this game would outsell Halo 3 because it's being released on multiple platforms, giving way for a wider range of sales, whereas Halo 3 is only on one platform, restricting it's userbase

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man i cant wait till it comes out im buyin for sure !!!!!!!!!!!!

Avatar image for Roman_Slayer

@WR_Platinum "I prefer a game that has more than 8 missions. " Then Halo 3 is the game for you, it has ten missions.

Avatar image for gamefan

Nothing will beat GTA series in sales. GTA SA has about 20 million copies out there and growing so if there's one game that can beat GTA series in sales, I'll be impressed but I doubt it'll happen.

Avatar image for WR_Platinum

I prefer a game that has more than 8 missions. GTA 4 ALL DAY! >B)

Avatar image for Cubbies

I like this game a lot better than Halo, even though I'm a big fan boy of Halo. Just like how you can explore the city and wreck havoc in it.

Avatar image for commando2

while yes GTA may slip past halo in sales, it also has the added bonus of the PS3, where as Halo did not. the only real way to tell is comparing the two sales on the same system. So the only way GTA can really pass Halo is because of the PS3 sales, if at all. I m not bashing any game im just stating that if this does happen this is going to be the reason.

Avatar image for spydiggity

MedevilDragon that doesn't make any sense. You say it has more history? Anyone can make random comments but since you can't back that up, it's meaningless. Halo has books, comics, and 3 games that deliver a far bigger story with much more background information. And then you go on to say Halo 3 is just Halo 2 with better graphics followed by "Half Life 2 should have gotten more hype." What are you retarded? Don't get me wrong, i just bought Orange Box about an hour ago but Half Life 2 is the SAME game, not a sequel. So there is another comment that makes no sense. These forums really should be monitored to prevent pointless comments from being made. GTA will be good, Half Life is good, and Halo (in terms of multiplayer and replayability) owns them all. Unless of course, Team Fortress takes off on 360, which it probably won't since most ppl will get it for PC.

Avatar image for deactivated-57fce817a4cf5

I agree. GTA4 is going to squash Halo 3's sales.

Avatar image for deactivated-5b4ca531ee76c

"blackhawk101, I agree with what you say. Halo 3 is an epic game and GTA4 will not outsell it in first week because there is not that much anticipation. GTA 4 is just a yob game and will never attract as many people as the epic Halo series." .. I'm not even going to bother with that one.

Avatar image for MedevilDragon

Halo 3 will sell more because of the hype, I personally like GTA better (it has more history and I like the open world gameplay more) and Rockstar are changing the series by introducing new features like the internet and a new combat system in IV, but Halo 3 to me is the same game as Halo 2 except with better graphics, it still an awesome game but there is nothing new to the last game, Half-Life 2 should have gotten more hype.

Avatar image for Greatcook42020

So I think that this article make alot of sense. If you put together the fact that GTA is already a popular game and they are goin to offer it to the ps3 and 360 owners, its going to out sell halo 3. Now I like gta, but I love Halo. I just think thats sense Halo is offered to only the 360, it's not going to sell as many copies of the game, but people nought the 360, just for Halo 3, huh like me.

Avatar image for Phazevariance

I'm getting this game for 360.. unless there is reason not to.

Avatar image for grand17

does anybody even read the articles? or do you just come here to be fanboys? now to the article, its pretty obvious that gta4 will outsell halo3 seeing as it is a multi platform game that everyone loves and the fact that by the time it comes out there will be a lot more people with these consoles then when halo3 came out. anyone who thinks otherwise should just keep their mouth shut as you know can quote me on this haha

Avatar image for oscaritoqueloco

Don't think that will happen, these analysts don't know anything. I would make a better job predicting the friggin weather and without a friggin radar.

Avatar image for F1sTDaCuffS

this guy is way way off the mark. not even close. i could do a better job then this guy.

Avatar image for meneger

PeachyRamune, well i am saying I live in london, i am english and people i know have not had to send their 360 for repairs.

Avatar image for Carashnak

... only because Halo 3 was only released on Xbox, and GTA is to be released on PS3 aswell, so I think it would have been 'fairer' to not include the PS3 on this one. I reckon then that it would be close, because GTA is a very good game.

Avatar image for PeachyRamune

meneger: You must be American. Using crappy anecdotal evidence to support your argument. The simple fact is that 360's break with or without irresponsibility. You're right, Vista is a great OS and doesn't screw over users of XP. Especially with the whole DX10 exclusive deal.

Avatar image for rgsniper1

I can't really explain it, but I get offended when a analyst opens his mouth. Maybe it's because 1/2 of the time they have no clue, 1/4 of the time they are attempting to explain a common sense situation that anyone with a brain already figured out and the other 1/4 they are making an acute statement by guessing to fill up space and get a paycheck. Somewhere I think there should be an analyst page that shows how many times they are right and how often they are wrong. I'd be willing to bet my magic 8ball would be just as worthy of there job.

Avatar image for Phatjam98

You are right PeachyRamune Why get a 360 that might break and be replaced for free for 3 years when you can get a system that dosn't break and has no good games. I mean it makes no sence to go with a system based on Games. Specially if you have to get a replacement in a couple years. I mean why play games on a system that might crap out when you could have a big Black Brick to watch Blue-Ray movies on? I mean really people, lets stop playing favorites and go with the system that has the content and accessability. You may hate MS, but they got the 360 right, and Sony tried to do too much with the PS3. It will be at least another year before the PS3 game development catches up to the games on 360 currently. Get whatever system you fancy and enjoy the content provided. If you are upset that the big games are currently on 360 and not on your PS3 that is your fault. And please let me know when a game comes out for both systems and the PS3 version gets the higher rating. I'm eager to see that game since the XBL portion of games has easily sent the 360 version over the top. This is the funniest battle of all time I think. Seriously, Sony kills Sega with overmarketing of the Playstation 2(combined with Sega's push to do too much too soon), and takes a system created mostly for Nintendo, and you all fall in love with Sony. Microsoft does the same thing this time around to Sony(without the killing of the playstation) and they are the most evil empire ever created. PICK THE SYSTEM THAT HAS THE GAMES YOU WANT TO PLAY AND BE DONE WITH IT!!!!!!!! ALL BIG CORP'S ARE EVIL AND THAT INCLUDES SONY!!!!! Wow the world is full of smart people LOL

Avatar image for meneger

PeachyRamune, agreed people are having problems but what the HELL do you lot do to your 360's. I have had mine for over 2 years and it is in perfect condition. Do you lot hump, throw your 360s around the room whilst blocking the vents and placing next to a heater? I also have vista and have no problem with that. Must be crazy people to find ways to damage their systems.

Avatar image for DJ-PRIME90

Well I am not into Halo, or any type of FPS games, so I really hope this is true. And I'm dam sure that most of the people who bought Halo 3, will buy GTA. That just leaves out all the other people who didn't buy Halo who will buy GTA, because back in the old days of PS2 and Xbox, there wasn't a single person I know who has those consoles and does not have at least one GTA game.

Avatar image for jeivindr

"it was never about which games are better. it which systems are better. i dont give a s*** cause fanboy will always exist". Wow, you so did not get the point, the news was not about which game is better nor about which console is better. It's some people's lack of critical thinking that has turned it into that.

Avatar image for gagan21

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

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Avatar image for PeachyRamune

meneger: Tell that to my 360 that's being repaired. Tell that to PC users that use VISTA. Obvious fanboy swallows everything up.

Avatar image for meneger

blackhawk101, I agree with what you say. Halo 3 is an epic game and GTA4 will not outsell it in first week because there is not that much anticipation. GTA 4 is just a yob game and will never attract as many people as the epic Halo series. I am not saying GTA4 (I will buy it) will not be a great game but it does not deliver as much excitement as Halo 3. enoslives7 get lost, microsoft makes quality products you blatently a bloody Sony fanboy. .

Avatar image for PeachyRamune

smarb001: You mean boring to you, typical over opinionated American.

Avatar image for smarb001

meh, boring game, after playing san andreas for like 2 months straight, free roaming is getting seriously boring. boring game=mediocre sales

Avatar image for enoslives7

More likely it will triple sales of halo. I dont care how many billions that micro$oft throws at a game, it still cant compete with a real game like GTA. I love how micro$oft thinks they can buy a winner. Kind of like the New York Yankees....they have the biggest expenses in the league, with weak returns. micr$oft should worry more about fixing that flop of an O/S they call vista.

Avatar image for zekere

GTA4 should have been game of the year 2007 , and Halo3 only rules for its multiplayer because the campaign had only 3 cool levels and was way too short .

Avatar image for Phatjam98

Well unfortunatly it is yet again very easy to tell the fanboys from the true gamers. For those of you that think Halo 3 is overrated, you are sony's favorite mindless zombie. You may not enjoy Halo as a whole, or even not like FPS games. But you cannot say the game is overrated or overhyped. Hundreds of Thousands of people are online right now and anytime you care to check, playing Halo 3. And as a side note, many people arn't playing online and are playing the very enjoyable Campaign. To be overhyped and overrated it would have to have sold a few million, the first few days would have a huge online numbers and then it would die off because the game isn't fun. That hasn't even come close to happening yet, numbers have only gotten bigger. To those that think GTA4 has no shot at beating Halo 3 sales... you are MS whipping boys. GTA4 has a strong possibility to come close or match Halo numbers. However the idea that it will sell 9 mil in the first week is stupid. There aren't that many PS3's in homes and I dont know a single person that is waiting to get a PS3 so they can play GTA, like many I know waiting for Halo 3 before they got there 360. Bottom line Halo 3 and GTA4 success is good for everyone that loves good, well made games. The stories, the presentation, and gameplay is all that really matters. The question is, do you spend more money for a system with 1 of 2 must have games. Or do you spend slightly less and get a system with (currently) every top hardcore game on the market?(and please, dont use the stupid Blue-Ray response to this GAMEING question.) Until PS3 games stop getting pushed back because of development problems and they find a better way to initiate online play, X360 will continue to Reign Supreem over the Hardcore realm. And if they dont figure out how to make killer games for the PS3 soon, very very soon, the PS3 will become a very cheap Blue-Ray player that can play games plain and simple.

Avatar image for wateverboy

it was never about which games are better. it which systems are better. i dont give a s*** cause fanboy will always exist.