Analyst: GTAIV could best Halo 3's debut

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey says Rockstar's latest could "conceivably" ship 9.5 million in the first week, more than twice Microsoft's 4.4 million.


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In announcing Halo 3's first-week sales of $300 million, Microsoft called it "the fastest-selling video game ever." That record might be relatively short-lived, if a new report from Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey proves accurate.

Hickey attributes the success of Halo 3 to a growing fan base for the franchise, a general demand for high-quality content, and the game's release early in the current generation's life cycle. Those same factors will be playing into next year's release of Grand Theft Auto IV, Hickey said. In addition, the Xbox 360 installed user base will be significantly larger by the time GTA IV comes out, and the addition of a PlayStation 3 edition of the game should boost sales significantly as well. Putting those factors together, Hickey suggests that the market is generally underestimating the next GTA game's initial success.

With Halo 3, Hickey believes Microsoft shipped 5.2 million copies of the game for its first week of release, and sold through 4.4 million. That leads to a 67 percent attach rate (percentage of all console owners who purchased the game) in the US, Hickey said. He believes that rate dips to 46 percent when adding in Europe.

Although Hickey doesn't think Grand Theft Auto IV will sell to as large a percentage of Xbox 360 owners, he notes that the expanding installed user base for the Xbox 360 and PS3 could offset whatever shortcoming there is. Even with a projected attach rate of only 20 percent (which Hickey stresses is very conservative), that would indicate first-week sales for the game of 3.5 million units. Hickey seemed more comfortable with a 30 percent attach rate, which would suggest first-week shipments of 5.3 million copies. But there's also a best-case scenario.

"If the upcoming release of GTA IV attached at the same rate as Halo 3," Hickey wrote, "the title could conceivably ship 9.5 million units of [the] game in the first week, producing an astonishing $466 million in sales." In such a case, Hickey projects first-week sales of the game would approach 8.1 million copies.

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Avatar image for SuP3R_TooT

if they do beat halo by less than double i wont be to impressed seeing as they are releasing it on 2 platforms one of which hasnt had that many great games so far.

Avatar image for darren05r

if the BBFC ban this game, Ek-Andy, everyone will just get it imported from the US

Avatar image for Franzkill

Its such a blow for Sony that this is multi-platform. This game will (just like Halo 3) sell inevitably and I mean SELL. People would have bought a PS3 simply for this game and still been happy.

Avatar image for Thorpe89

Taking into consideration that Christmas will be here before the release - that means there will be a larger user base for both consoles. So, I should assume this should sell incredibly well now the consoles have been out for a little while. I will certainly be contributing to the opening week.

Avatar image for Destroyeron13

Multiple consoles > 1 console, basic math? Omg?

Avatar image for Michael_EF

Gentlemen, gentlemen... It's understandable that Halo is big...Huge. But being realistic... GTA IV has already sold more than 4 million units in PRE-ORDERS! So Even if it turns out to be overhypped the single fact that PS3's alone cant support and will ship on both consoles guarantees that it will sell more than any other franchise combined. GTA with all its violence and all its gross conduct and all its BS will without a doubt end up superior. Just think of it this way, good or bad how much noise does GTA make. Law suits, court battles, acusations of people killing others because of it (which is rediculous by the way). Lastly find out how many BS fansites GTA has and compare it to how many Halo has. -Wake up and smell the chaos

Avatar image for digimrm2004

It should be an interesting battle between the two even though GTA IV will probably come out on top, just have to wait and see.

Avatar image for deactivated-5925dfb1d1fe6

Yeah, it probably will do better. GTA is a much more legendary and popular series than Halo.

Avatar image for Ek-Andy

The analyst failed to mention the incredible amount of advertising put on the game as one of the factors. But yeah it generally makes sense that GTA4 will sell more than Halo 3, unless of course the BBFC decide to ban it in Britain, but then again im sure the North American sales would be far greater anyway. In theory GTA should be one step ahead of Halo, becuase is on its 4th game (kind of) where Halo is only on its third, allowing the GTA series to build up a larger fan base presuming it grows with each game release. The only real diffrence is one was considred a finale, which may have affected sales a little. Presuming Rockstar and Take Two produce a good avertising campagin, GTA4 is sure to become the fastest selling video game of all time, though it would be a shame that Halos record be so short lived.

Avatar image for ViscaBarcaInter

Where are people getting the idea that Halo is a bigger franchise than GTA? 3 of the top 5 selling games of the PS2, including spots 1, 3 and 4 were the 3 main GTA releases. The top selling game on the PSP is GTA Liberty City Stories, by miles. The series has over 50 million sales, which is more than double Halo's total sales. Not only is GTA a bigger franchise, it is by a large distance. It is almost certain that GTA4 will comfortably pass Halo 3, just like the previous 2 GTA games outsold the previous Halos. Doesn't mean Halo is a bad franchise, not even remotely, but people need to face facts.

Avatar image for Gursewak_rules

well im getting gta 4 hope that'll make a difference

Avatar image for McGregor

this is in a completely different market. halo 3 had parents that didn't mind the content that gave it a mature rating. GTA IV is mature for a much different reason. Killing slugs is one thing, but killing girls to get your money back, that isn't on a parents "buy" list for their kids. at least not parents that pay attention.

Avatar image for laverdegamer

i do think that GTA IV will do very well in sales the first week but i dont think that it can top halo. i mean yes GTA has been around for longer but its not as big as halo. halo has such a better story line then the GTA franchise. GTA is multiple stories put into all of the different games in its franchise. halo is one continuous story which in my opinion will make people buy it more then then GTA games.

Avatar image for eViL_kA

kantjd: "This guy's been smoking some weird kind of pot lately or what??? I mean, GTA IV can and will do good in sales, but beating Halo 3 is a completely different story..." ballroomwest: "Halo 3 (cringe) (more like HYPO 3 ) the most overhyped overrated game of all time" Umm, i'm going to have to agree with ballroomwest on that one.

Avatar image for SixFt12

Both Halo and GTA deserve high sales. Halo has been my favorite multi-player game of all time and GTA has been my favorite single player game ever. ---------------------------------------I'm actually glad one of them was delayed though because the control schemes are so differant that it's hard to switch back and forth. -----------------------------------------------------------------------I keep reading about one or the other is so over-hyped. BS. A game isn't overhyped if it lives up to the hype and neither one of these have let me down yet.

Avatar image for johnmetcalf

If you look at it being on both consoles it can't help to sell more copies but personally I don't think the number sales of the the 360 version will amount to the number of copies of Halo 3 sold. Cross platform that is most likely possible.

Avatar image for hbciwdbg

GTA4 WILL be the king of games

Avatar image for rusky4ever

I think GTA IV will beat Halo just because its gonna be multi platform.

Avatar image for kantjd

This guy's been smoking some weird kind of pot lately or what??? I mean, GTA IV can and will do good in sales, but beating Halo 3 is a completely different story...

Avatar image for ballroomwest

Halo 3 (cringe) (more like HYPO 3 :P ) the most overhyped overrated game of all time, will be forgotten in a couple of years and will be outta the top ten charts in not so many months from now. Look at GTA:San Andreas........three years since its release...and it's rarely ever left the Top Ten (go check it now if you don't believe me!!) other game has achieved that longevity and popularity! When was the last time you saw Halo 1 or 2 (also 3 years old) in the Top Ten eh???? The only thing that sucks about GTA titles, is that the PC versions are always released soooo long after the console versions.....which is kinda ironic as the console versions are developed on PCs in the first place! By the way - GTA DOES INDEED have multiplayer.......maybe not on consoles but on PCs they do.....its called has a thriving online community and its DAMNED FUN!! I've had some KRAAAAZY fun riding scrambler bikes on skyrapers etc Check it out!

Avatar image for asiaticman

gta iv will destroy halo3 just like the past game destroyed halo 2.

Avatar image for qiwihead

radbytrade: Are you friggin high on crack? No one plays single player games? Jebus, man, I just don't know how to respond to such a ludicrous statement. I've already played through Halo 3's campaign twice, once solo and once coop, and plan to play it several more times. Previous GTA games were some of the bestselling games of all time, and none of them even have multiplayer. Do you need me to show you a list of bestselling games from the past 5 years that had no multiplayer at all? Ever hear of Nintendo? Hardly any of their games have multiplayer. I'm not a fan of flaming, but that's just about the dumbest thing I've ever read in a gaming forum. Yes, as some other posters have pointed out, mp games tend to sell better, or at least have longer legs in the marketplace. But this analyst was clearly basing his projection at least partly on the sales numbers of the previous GTA games, so it's not like he's just pulling these numbers out of thin air.

Avatar image for Mjolnirukl

Oh about my last post: I meant by saying UT3 IS way better i meant it most prolly will be

Avatar image for Mjolnirukl

Ok from what i experienced so far, I can say Halos single player was great and all but not what it could have been, Keep in mind fan-boys i am NOT forgetting the multi-player but even that will prolly be overshadowed by UT3 which imo is better multi-player wise. Now I predict this game will appeal to the many people that complained that halo was too short on the Halo preview area and elsewhere (the ones you spam negative voted for saying so). There also is a mega large GTA fan-base globally not as big as halos mind you. I definatly think any PS3 owner will really want a copy after a crappy 2007 year of games as well as tons of 360 owners who played the first game. All in All i have to say that there is a slim chance that it wont beat halos sales, but since its not released yet we'll have to see, but I know im getting a copy anyway PS I own both consoles and love them both, so I dont think im a fanboy.

Avatar image for jay_rock_

It will be bigger I think I'am a bigger gta fan then halo, no matter what people say I think halo1 is the best one out of all of them ,maybe gears of war 2 will be bigger but halo 3 is the most overrated game in history.gears of war is still better but yaeh I can.t wait till gta4 come out that and mgs4,fable2,so many games!!!!!!! ps I'am not a fanboy I'am a grown a$$ man lol

Avatar image for radbytrade

tekmojo, No one plays single player games. Halo's drawing in MMO numbers and it's not because of its stellar single-player campaign. It's certainly possible that GTA IV will sell more copies, but I don't think it's as probable as everyone is making it out to be.

Avatar image for tekmojo

let's see everyone wanted to buy halo 3, that's on one system...same situation but now there's one extra console to buy it on = more sales

Avatar image for radbytrade

"GTA IV could best Halo 3's debut" Yes, and a meteor could fall on my head at any second. Does this make me an expert analyst now? Whatever happened to reporting news and facts? :P Could and might will never be is and will.

Avatar image for juggleJUGGLER

the game will be different and doesn't have as much hype right now even as halo 3 did right now a year or so before its release i will get gta 4 but i dont think it will out sell but if it did it would be all over the normal news warning parents to stay away from the violence

Avatar image for diablobasher

I hate to break it to you MR.Analyst, but Multiplayer games sell much better than single player games unfortunately. I mean Halo 3's single player is weak, and multiplayer is just more popular these days. God knows why though.

Avatar image for masterchief1994

I can't wait for the Q1 of 2008.There is going to be so many a*s kicking games.

Avatar image for SuperbGamer

So far, these are the games I am anticipating the most for each of the consoles. No matter which game has the most sales, they are all going to be fun! :D Wii = Super Smash Bros. Brawl PS3 = GTA IV Xbox 360 = Halo 3

Avatar image for ewmgreendawg

it will outsell halo but not by that much.

Avatar image for Deloreanman

Personnaly I think GTA IV wil out sell halo 3 no prob honestly I love all the systems I think they are all on the same playing feild. Halo's only replay value is in the fact that it has the online function Welll now so will GTA 4 so GTA 4 will have an even larger replay value. Also the people at rockstar are being smart in not releasing much info on it so it leaves peepole to speculate getting them more curious in the game halo gave all it's secrets away almost instantly other than it's ending

Avatar image for packernation31

I don't think it will sell nearly that much

Avatar image for batosaims

i think over the next few years gta will sell more then halo but i doubt it will sell as fast as halo 3 halo 3 has too big a fanbase and had its own soda for crying out loud but yeah imma getting gta also its an awsome game so is halo 3 halo 3 will be played for alot longer then gta thought if i recall halo 2 has over five billion man hours invested into it in 30 months so as far as a launch goes i doubt gta will be bigger then halo 3 but i do think gta will eventually outsell halo 3 since its on two platforms just not at first

Avatar image for CarlosValmer

LMAO! Right...

Avatar image for garethbroodlord

haha, and priests could start liking females of their own age!!!!

Avatar image for garethbroodlord

haha, and priets could start liking females of their own age!!!!

Avatar image for ratzombie

GTA being multi-console really doesn't matter, how many of those copies do you think went to the Xbox? Not very many... most were for the PS2, the dominant platform. It'll be the same way this time around, except reversed. The PS3 has a severely lacking fan base, and with the exclusive content that the 360 version will be getting... you get your dominant platform (the 360.) I assure you that GTA IV will sell an equal amount, if not more copies in the same time frame, and if not then in the long term. Not counting PS3 sales, of course. This is all speculation of course, but given how insane people are for GTA... and given that this is the first next generation version of that game, will have it selling like hotcakes.

Avatar image for bigc072005

ok if u have a halo related name dont room for fanboys...just sayin...but yes ur right gta does appeal to a bigger crowd...halo is def one of those overrated games...u buy it thinkin ur gonna play it for months....i got bored of that game in 3 weeks...i no there r others out there that happened to as not sayin gta is THE BEST GAME EVER!! im just sayin since it is more...modern i guess more ppl will like it easier...cuz its one of those games where u can do wtf u want without consequences in real least thats how i feel but yes halo is not all its cracked up to be...just too many losers that play games all day

Avatar image for neonblueshadow

GTA appeals to a much bigger crowd than Halo. Halo was still mostly followed by its own fan base, like the worlds largest cult classic. But GTA appeals to gamers, and more so to folks who don't play games that often. its more of a pop culture monument than Halo is...

Avatar image for spartan-dude

GTA is good but it will never match up to HALO.

Avatar image for Mastajoker

IMo, yes gta will outsell halo because there will be more ps3 owners because of christmas and there will be more games out that make it worth buying a ps3. I think that gta being multi platform will definetly win it for them. The only reason it might not is because gta has the worst reputation a game can have. I am not a Sony fan boy. I own all three consoles and right now I'm playing halo 3. Every1 is entited to their own opinion. I just dont get why people just cant cut the fanboy sh** and just grow up.

Avatar image for v8nnwilder

Well I'm not sure about that... I own a PS3 so when I say this especially to the 360 fanboys that always hammer on PS3 and the PS titles I'm actually saying something positive about the XBox so chillax... Halo 3 was only on the 360 and it sold a record amount of copies in the first week, so firstly seeing that GTAIV is on two platforms gives it an unfair advantage... So even if it does outsell Halo 3 it will be because it has a bigger market to sell to. On my opinion thou is that GTAIV will plainly be a better BIGGER game than Halo 3.... 5 years down the line Halo 3 will be forgotten and GTAIV will still be played by many a folk out there. And once again 360 fans.... I have played Halo 3 and I have finished it but all in all it wasn't all that freakin' great. There will be many many games that will put "the biggest game in history" to shame.... And actually I hope to god there will be games that will put GTAIV to shame as well!! That just simply means that things will just keep getting better and better...

Avatar image for artdrawnbyv0mit

Lul, I'm not sure. I think that the Grand Theft Auto series has a big fan base, but so does Halo 3. I'm positive it will out sell Halo in the FIRST week, but not overall.

Avatar image for matthiewcorner

ZEALOTzeus: of course theres going to be huge lines at midnight (if it even comes out on midnight) to buy this game, because its freaking incredible. In Halo you can only shoot and drive a couple of vehicles, by the way you are a focking robot in it. But Grand Theft Auto 4 is something much greater. you can do almost anything you could possibly imagine from a videogame.

Avatar image for rockutd

Wow thats gonna put Halo to shame wif the maketing and gimmicks by M$ beofre the release.And i can tell u that hype is something that blinds people's judgement so much so as to the extent that they cant tell when something is just simply overrated...

Avatar image for ZEALOTzeus

heh, more like being published on 1.5 consoles. It may win on the long run but it won't beat halo's opening week. There won't be 200+ lines at midnight to buy gta4

Avatar image for seankane

Zeroninetyseven, thats why you dont work in the gaming business. You severly underestimate figures based on your own biases. Not very smart, in a business sense.