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Analyst: GTAIV could best Halo 3's debut

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey says Rockstar's latest could "conceivably" ship 9.5 million in the first week, more than twice Microsoft's 4.4 million.

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In announcing Halo 3's first-week sales of $300 million, Microsoft called it "the fastest-selling video game ever." That record might be relatively short-lived, if a new report from Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey proves accurate.

Hickey attributes the success of Halo 3 to a growing fan base for the franchise, a general demand for high-quality content, and the game's release early in the current generation's life cycle. Those same factors will be playing into next year's release of Grand Theft Auto IV, Hickey said. In addition, the Xbox 360 installed user base will be significantly larger by the time GTA IV comes out, and the addition of a PlayStation 3 edition of the game should boost sales significantly as well. Putting those factors together, Hickey suggests that the market is generally underestimating the next GTA game's initial success.

With Halo 3, Hickey believes Microsoft shipped 5.2 million copies of the game for its first week of release, and sold through 4.4 million. That leads to a 67 percent attach rate (percentage of all console owners who purchased the game) in the US, Hickey said. He believes that rate dips to 46 percent when adding in Europe.

Although Hickey doesn't think Grand Theft Auto IV will sell to as large a percentage of Xbox 360 owners, he notes that the expanding installed user base for the Xbox 360 and PS3 could offset whatever shortcoming there is. Even with a projected attach rate of only 20 percent (which Hickey stresses is very conservative), that would indicate first-week sales for the game of 3.5 million units. Hickey seemed more comfortable with a 30 percent attach rate, which would suggest first-week shipments of 5.3 million copies. But there's also a best-case scenario.

"If the upcoming release of GTA IV attached at the same rate as Halo 3," Hickey wrote, "the title could conceivably ship 9.5 million units of [the] game in the first week, producing an astonishing $466 million in sales." In such a case, Hickey projects first-week sales of the game would approach 8.1 million copies.

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DonutTrooper

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Whatever man, I'm going to say what a lot of people have already probably said: multiplatform release=more$$$. With that said I guess it's also fair to assume that they are either right or wrong. Honestly, I think if they assume they'll make bigger bucks than something with the advertising budget MS can throw it's weight around with, it might make the devs lazier. Perhaps they might assume that people will buy the game based on the name itself and it might turn out great or all right, but devs need to assume it will suck, so that they will work hard to beat the hype that kills so many good games. Whatever, I'm no analyst. I don't have a degree. I've just been gaming for a while and I sometimes see patterns with similar events. Good luck R*.

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halfirishhomer

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hey jetblack, i dont think anyone cares what you think

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therealamel

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I wonder if this is the same guy that said the PS3 would far outsell the wii?

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BoobyUnger

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you gotta remeber halo 3 is a series of events more or less a story line. While in every gta its a new story so you dont need to have played every game. Besides it may be a multi plat but it will out sell halo on each system alone not together

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JetB1ackNewYear

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i thnk the GTA seiries is reallly stupid. i wont be getting it

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R3V3N4N7

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If it was only on 360 no way would it out sell but since it's also on the PS3 then it has a chance.

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ProductNumber49

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Sure it will. Its a multiplat :|

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bluntiss

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If it was coming out on ps3 then there's no way it could outsell halo.. I don't even think there have been 5 million ps3 sold. And if there is not everybody would buy it..

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delcidanddarth

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@GrimBee "It won't beat halo 3 sales, especially not the launch figure. If they total up the ps3 and 360 - then maybe. But its released at the wrong time of year for a start, halo 3 will benefit from alot of christmas sales, never forget that." I don't think xmas sales count towards Halo3's launch figure. To the many people whining about how this isn't a fair comparison, what the heck are you talking about? There is no "360 vs PS3" comparison going on. Game sales are all that matter to the companies, and the comparison is between GTAIV and Halo3. People compaining about 2 consoles vs 1 isn't a fair comparison, guess what? That's EXACTLY why developers go multi-platform. To sell MORE games.

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Darkstar_Sinada

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Wow, GTA sells because it lets little kids feel like gangsters. I won't be contributing to those possible 9 million, that's for sure.

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Autolycus

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wrong. the whole GTA series is lame and repeadative and expensive (60+)

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skateboard1587

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Hollywood415: Who do you think parents will listen to, their kids saying, "It's not that bad, I swear!" or the politicians on the news?

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Myst-Vearn

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well yes of course it will, but if it was 360 exclusive then no it wouldn't

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jessefromh-town

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Oh so Hickey says he thinks GTA4 will win off a technicality?? I get it now. :lol: Ya, keep talking man. Halo 3 was only on ONE console so him even saying this is retarded. Madden didn't out sell Halo 3 and Madden is on everything.

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ledgic_13

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way more different people play gta than just dedicated fps fans to halo and even the casual ones... i believe fps's are an aquired taste, one that i like none the less, and gta with is open ended game play view of the character emerssive story line and tons to do will draw in so many more fans, not to mention the gta is looking and is finaly at the best we have every seen it....from over head little cartoony cars to full blown hd 20,000polygon cars and full scale building models. gta is ready to deliver and we know this.

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KDogKool

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psh...only cuz its multiplatform...

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Brotherbraak

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U Skateboard1587, are an idiot. It doesn't matter man. Who cares about the kids. Twice as many adults are gonna grab a hold of it than prepubescent people such as yourself. And people like controversy, its what GTA thrives off. If u think that becuz of that the game won't sell much, u my friend can jump off a cliff and die. Oh yeah, hurray for non-responsible parents so that their kids can enjoy this game.

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brad_d

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wow this is news. Some guy thinks a game can "conceivably" sell 9.5 million units and it goes to press. I think it's going to sell 500,000 units only. Print that.

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bam11bam

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i doubt it will beat it,but yea....its Multiplatform.....Halo would still hold the record for best selling exclusive

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BoobyUnger

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kdt55 zing XD. Of course this will sell better than halo 3 its on both systems and its more fun

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kdt55

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Josepiphus...even if the game isn't that great, it will still sell. Just look at Halo3.

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PS3_3DO

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Halo 3 is only on one platform. So I think GTA IV could break records for a multiplat game but not a single platform game.

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Vraeth

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"The analyst forgot to add: "Not only GTA IV will outsell Halo 3, because there will be almost as many PS3s sold as 360 by its release, it will also sell even more PS3s on top of it because the game is known to be a Playstation franchise for millions of fans." If you're joking, great. If not, your logic is seriously flawed if you think the vast superior number of people that own 360s over a PS3 will go out and buy a PS3 for $400+ instead of just buying it for $60 on a system they already have because they view it as "a playstation franchise". And I also doubt that this is the game people have been waiting for to pick up a PS3, let alone any next generation system. Why buy a PS3 for GTA IV alone, when you can get a 360 that already has many established titles as WELL as GTA IV?

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nightmare451

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This game wont outsell halo 3 but if it does its because its on 2 consoles. If it was only on the ps3 it would never outsell halo 3.

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HollywoodR15

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skateboard1587, this game is meant to be sold to 17 years and up, regardless of the hot coffee debate people will still buy it, its non gamers and political people who made a big deal of it

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LinconSixEcho

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It will sell well but not like Halo since Halo is an "acceptable" violent game. Maybe it's because its story is science fiction. GTA is the end all, blame all when it comes to the violence of society. School shooting? Blame GTA. A kid steals a car? Blame GTA. More eyes will be on the rating of GTA 4 rather than Halo 3 and I think this will prevent large sales of GTA. It's a theory of mine. I am looking forward to the 360 version since I am always wanting achievement points. Now before you Sonybots jump on me, I own a PS3 too so I have no loyalties to anyone.

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HollywoodR15

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it is not even nothing to think, GTA has sold 12 mil plus everytime out, its nothing new, Halo has sold 6 mil on Halo 2, and an collectors edition to boot

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delcidanddarth

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He's basing this on a projected user base for the 360 and ps3, of which we have no idea how he came to that number. He would have to make some assumptions about how many consoles will sell over the holidays, which would be very difficult to predict considering the pricing changes, and the fact the ps3 hasn't gone through a holiday season yet. After the holidays are over, then we'll have a much better idea. I really don't like analysts who jump the gun like this. It's like economists predicting interest rates a year in advance.

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skateboard1587

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There's a very little chance it will sell that much. Why? The GTA series has had an incredible amount of controversy surrounding it for a long time. No responsible parent would let their child have this game, considering the fact that San Andreas had the hot coffee mod and had itself become adults only. This game will only appeal to adults, and therefore will not sell as much as halo 3.

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HollywoodR15

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GTA has always outsold Halo, they just never came out with different types of the game, just the standard 50 dollar game, this time they will have a collectors edition, where Halo 3 made a lot of money on the legendary edition, GTA will too.

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HXCDEW

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The analyst forgot to add: "Not only GTA IV will outsell Halo 3, because there will be almost as many PS3s sold as 360 by its release, it will also sell even more PS3s on top of it because the game is known to be a Playstation franchise for millions of fans."

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amin915

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Well I think this does make alot of sense, i worked at a gamestop for about 3 years especially the gta san andreas launch and i noticed that there is a much more diverse community who are interested in the gta series. I think it will outsell halo 3.

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Vraeth

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Aren't these the same guys who say PS3 will somehow win the console war? Even if they're in dead last and have consoles gathering dust on the shelves?

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Colsworl

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GTA appeals to a wider audience. Add that to the fact it is on two systems then I have no dought it will sell more than Halo 3 in the long run anyway; that is if it doesn't turn out to be crap which I really hope it won't or think.

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kTvTv3

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Hey did you people every think that people will be GTAIV regardless if they have any console? Some people are that hyped up about it, that they want to have the game as soon as it comes out, even if they don't have a 360 or a PS3.

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wizardps2

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That is so real Halo Only on 360 GTA PS3 360 more sales!!! PS3 Rules!!

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Josepiphus

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Is the game even good?

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Tripwolf

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Considering the XBOX 360 is getting exclusive content I would say that it has a good chance of outselling Halo 3. It will have the xbox 360 fans behind it AND because of the limited ps3 game library - the ps3 owners will be picking it up as well. It should be a good race!

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kTvTv3

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Sorchak, start working at Vector. No exp: needed, and you make like $500 a week working only weekends.

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borgmaster

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It'll probably sell as well, if not better than Halo 3. but 9.5 is just ridiculous.

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lvlUNE3B

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it's still a theory.

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rulo_rezn0r

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that sounds like obvious, but i dont think that its going to double halo 3 in sales, mainly because Halo is the best seller in M$ console, and altogether with the ps3 userbase can beat halo, i dont discuss that, but i can say that more 360 user wanted halo 3 than gta4 and the 360 version is gonna sell much better than the ps3...so i dont get how it is supposed to double halo... anyways, just my 2 cents

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msalz1

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this article is lame....of course a title that is multiplat should outsell one that is just on one...how bout you compare Halo 3 to GTA IV on 360....then it's a fair comparison.

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DevilD2005

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Whats interesting is GTA went from being an average video game to an end all revolutionary genre unto itself. I think Halo will not compete with GTA 4, though I dont know about the whole, opening night thing. But in the long run gta4 will likely get more publicity (Rockstar knows how to sell their games.) bigger fanbase, more sales as time progresses, will sell more systems alone, (Be it for the ps3 or 360) and is liable to get more critic aclaim then the Halo series. (I say this based on both series' track records.)

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Sorchak

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I won't be buying GTAIV at release, as I don't have a PS3 yet. However I didn't buy Halo, either, as I despise the Xbox console. Personally, I don't care which platform sells the best because I'm not making any money off of it. And I haven't bought ANY game or console right at release, due to a lack of money and the fact that not all of the bugs are worked out.

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can0of0cheese

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Actually this seems like a possible reality, the ps3 fanbase will buy it and a big chunk of the 360 fanbase will too. Then again I'm not so sure all the 12 year olds who bought halo will be able to convince their parents on this one. No offense but there sure are a lot of squeaky in halo multiplayer.

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myrtlebeach

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yaho, the only reason it would outsell is because ps3 babies could only look foreward to like one or two good games, us 360 pple have several games and there fore have to conserve out money for the other AAA titles shipping in november and december

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GrimBee

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It won't beat halo 3 sales, especially not the launch figure. If they total up the ps3 and 360 - then maybe. But its released at the wrong time of year for a start, halo 3 will benefit from alot of christmas sales, never forget that. Imagine the amount of copies sold over christmas, the absence of gta IV only helps this. And with titles like mgs4 and unreal coming out at around the same time, at that time of year - gamers will probably not get it on launch day. Its just the wrong time of year for a game to sell seriously better than one released at this time of year. GTA is a powerful series, don't get me wrong. But the thirst for games will be mostly at christmas. Remember that gamers younger than 18 can play halo 3 - which opens the bar considerably for halo 3. GTA IV will probably be an 18 only game like the rest of them, shortening the prospects of more people buying it. 15 year olds could just walk into the store and get halo 3 - gta IV won't get any of that. Eventually, GTAIV may over take the sales of halo 3, but I doubt it will beat the launch figures, or the month or 3 months sales figures of halo 3. Because at christmas, people go insane. Gears of war sold 4 million copies over christmas and just a month or two after (or something like that). Halo 3 will probably double that, or tripple it by the time gta comes out. I know there will be even MORE console owners after christmas, but there are so many games coming out soon for christmas, and loads of them coming out in the spring - its not like GTA is filling any "big title" gaps like they used to. Lets see what happens.

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Expo_Smacko

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Sounds like good news. :)

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ashuncc2

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Considering GTA4 is a multi-platform release, the game has a very likely chance of breaking Halo's numbers. I plan on purchasing GTA4, but may wait till I can get it cheaper through gamefly. Halo was a must on day 1, considering multiplayer; ie. maps/weapons.

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