Hit Percentage Appear to be Lying!

#1 Posted by alodude (114 posts) -

If you have a 92% chance, a 75% chance, a 60% chance, and a 45% chance to role to beat your opponent, but you fail each time....my question is this:  Is this the dice rigged?

If this were a casino, I wouldn't be surprised, but it's a video game...a piece of software concocted from 1s and 0s.  It's a mathamatically sound ivention, is it not?  Where logic and equations are the staple of putting this game together!  Why then, like in the above instance, do I seem to miss almost every shot, even when they have a very high hit percentage?  It seems math and logic don't apply to combat!!

I don't mind losing...but when I lose and my squad mates die because I feel like the game wronged me, and isn't giving me the correct hit percantae numbers, it makes me want to turn that Iron man mode off and cheat the cheating combat system.

What do ya'll think?  Is this your experience too?

 

cheers

#2 Posted by jhcho2 (4427 posts) -

If you have a 92% chance, a 75% chance, a 60% chance, and a 45% chance to role to beat your opponent, but you fail each time....my question is this: Is this the dice rigged?

If this were a casino, I wouldn't be surprised, but it's a video game...a piece of software concocted from 1s and 0s. It's a mathamatically sound ivention, is it not? Where logic and equations are the staple of putting this game together! Why then, like in the above instance, do I seem to miss almost every shot, even when they have a very high hit percentage? It seems math and logic don't apply to combat!!

I don't mind losing...but when I lose and my squad mates die because I feel like the game wronged me, and isn't giving me the correct hit percantae numbers, it makes me want to turn that Iron man mode off and cheat the cheating combat system.

What do ya'll think? Is this your experience too?

cheers

alodude

I noticed this. My theory is that the hit rating itself may be calculated fairly, but to prevent abuse of reloading till you get a hit, the percentages are calculated first, and then the outcome is locked in. So let's say from a certain postion, you have a 70% chance. The game may have already rolled the dice on that 70%, but let's say you have unluckily gotten the 30% miss, then you'll miss no matter what. You can reload 5 times and still miss all 5 times.

What i do is reload a few paces away and close in in a different array. So it all gets recalculated again....and I do eventually luck out this way.

#3 Posted by Cirkelinespark (396 posts) -

Yes the dice is rigged. There's no randomness in this game.

#4 Posted by Niner0 (1601 posts) -

How do you mean that the dice is rigged? To begin with, a computer cannot generate true random numbers, so in that sense, no, the outcomes are not random, the game decides weather or not you hit your target. But what it seems like you are saying is that someone on the development team has foreseen every single one of your moves and determined if you win or lose. This, I can all but guarantee you, is not the case.

I think I'm going to note my hits and see how accurate the percantages are.

#5 Posted by alodude (114 posts) -

Regardless, Niner0, I feel as if the game is stacked against me, and the numbers are telling me it's a fair right.  It seems unjust to be lied to about your chances on hit rates.

#6 Posted by stan_boyd (4923 posts) -
I don't get it, I hit most of the time when my percentage is high and I miss most of the time when my percentage is low. Even with a 90 percent you still have a chance to miss.
#7 Posted by Jomsviking (607 posts) -

This is to prevent save scumming. (save/reload untill even a 1% becomes a hit)

When you move your guy into a enemy's line of sight (and placing them into yours) the game descides if it will hit or not. if you have a 92% chance to hit guy 1, and 26% to hit guy 2, then the game calculates it on your spesific turn. Meaning both can and will always miss, no matter how much you savescum.  

If you were to use an ability however, it will be calculated differently. i assume moving into another possition will also make the game reroll your chances. It does not, however, descide at the start of your turn if your guy will be allowed to hit anything at all.  

#8 Posted by dzimm (4651 posts) -

it makes me want to turn that Iron man mode off and cheat the cheating combat system.alodude

The developers are one step ahead of you: the random seed is saved with the game, so you can't cheese the game by reloading until you score a hit. If you miss, you'll always miss, even if you reload and take the shot a hundred times.

Personally, I don't feel like it's rigged. It's all about percentages. A 90% chance to hit will miss 1 time out of 10. An 80% chance to hit will miss 1 time out of 5. And so on. Sometimes the dice favors you, like scoring a kill on a 33% chance to hit, and other times it doesn't, like missing a 92% chance to hit. Think of it this way: anything less than 100% has a chance to miss, so the key is make sure you always have a secondary option if you fail to connect, or if you connect but don't kill the target.

What keeps everything fair is that the AI is also subject to the whims of the dice. I've seen them get lucky shots, but I've also seen them miss what should have been sure hits.

#9 Posted by Demsul (3 posts) -
Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses?
#10 Posted by DaDizzel (799 posts) -

100% I dont think thats true, but what ever.

I have missed 4 50% chances making the % un true. Not sure but dice roll seems more likely.

#11 Posted by ZakMcKracken (188 posts) -
Have had a couple of 95% misses, standing next to the alien...
#12 Posted by Wassabi21 (8 posts) -

Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses? Demsul

I'm willing to bet you are making that up. I've clocked over a hundred hours in this game, beaten it on impossible, and not once seen 100% miss. That, or you misread the percentage.

#13 Posted by Wassabi21 (8 posts) -

I have missed 4 50% chances making the % un true. Not sure but dice roll seems more likely.

DaDizzel

You're looking at it incorrectly. Just because you have a one-in-two chance of hitting does not mean you will hit by the second shot. Each shot has a 50% chance. You could, theoretically miss over and over and over ad infinitum. Also, in the case of this game, anti save scumming takes place. Anti save scumming is the game auto-saving your results on a shot roll, so that even if you reload the game and take the shot again, the results will not change from the previous roll. There are ways to work around this, but that's another topic.

Edited for clarity.

#14 Posted by IOError (4 posts) -

Let's be honest here folks, there are three basic points here.

 

1) People need to understand that a % chance to hit is a probability. Missing four 50% shots? Hey, it happens and it's completely fair mathematically. Just like getting lucky and landing four 25% shots. The game really and truly is not cheating you.

 

2) They did a really good job of preventing save scumming. Like people have said, reloading alone will NOT help you. If that's your thing, either reload to an earlier point or have your Soldiers do something to generate a change - do other movements or actions with other troops, then try shooting with that first guy again. But, be honest - that's pretty weaksauce. Like I said, the game isn't cheating but it IS trying to make sure you don't cheat, too.

3) The guy who mentioned 100% miss is either lying or simply misread the numbers. I think the group consensus on that point is pretty clear.

#15 Posted by Avenger1324 (16344 posts) -

The % to hit does seem to be calculated prior to the shot happening to prevent save, miss reload until hit, atleast within that turn of movement.

I have seen some odd % to hit though - where when you switch to a soldier in sight of an alien it reports just 1% chance to hit, but when you click on it, zoom to the alien target, then click details the chance to hit jumps up significantly into the 50-60% chance to hit range. This tends to be with either my heavy (LMG) or assault (shotgun) do I don't know if it's something to do with their weapons?

#16 Posted by dzimm (4651 posts) -

Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses? Demsul

Sounds unlikely unless there was something really screwy going on.  I've never seen any of my soldiers miss with a 100% chance to hit.

#17 Posted by Demsul (3 posts) -

Yeah, I made it up but you guys disappoint me. Your supposed to call me names and such. It's refreshing to be called out without being called names and such. You fellas pass the test. On a serious note, I have had high percentage shots miss and I've had low percentage shots hit. I don't get too wrapped up in the numbers and percentages as I just play the game.

#21 Posted by veryraiser (52 posts) -

[QUOTE="Demsul"]Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses? Wassabi21

I'm willing to bet you are making that up. I've clocked over a hundred hours in this game, beaten it on impossible, and not once seen 100% miss. That, or you misread the percentage.

You should youtube and immortalize yourself as a perfect example of current generation of m*rons, and you just took the title "m*ron of the day". Congrats on that bro:) Using an elementary school logic, it has been stated that the calculations are already predetermined. And that even a 92% chance hit misses or not connects, due to a either a misrepresentation and/or coding error. Wouldn't it be only logical to assume that even 100% can and is misrepresented and/or miscalculated. For the record I personally had a dozen of 100% shots miss. If you still don't want to accept you are not superior in any way to other human beings, I will make a video just for you. So that you can actually see what he is talking about, if you have a problem understanding the concept of mathematics and probability. Here is an good book on a subject. http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf It is my heart's desire that you actually read it, to your own benefit in the future. All the best.
#22 Posted by stan_boyd (4923 posts) -
I would like to see a video of a 100% chance shot miss, I have yet to miss on a 100% after about 50 hours playing.
#23 Posted by dzimm (4651 posts) -

it has been stated that the calculations are already predetermined.veryraiser

You're right, it has been stated.  It just happens to be wrong.

You need to read this:

http://techland.time.com/2012/10/12/why-xcoms-random-results-sometimes-arent-and-you-should-play-on-ironman/

#24 Posted by Avenger1324 (16344 posts) -
An interesting read - if you do a set sequence of actions over and over again they will have the exact same outcome if the reload is within the mission - but if you change your sequence slightly it may give a different outcome. Obviously they don't want to give away exactly how it works or people would find a way around it - but this method does stop people just reloading for each action that doesn't go exactly as they want it.
#25 Posted by vfibsux (4205 posts) -

Sorry but FAR to often I miss 75% and higher shots, seems more like 50/50 chance per shot to me. If I am not behind full cover good luck with the aliens missing tho....

#26 Posted by D3nnyCrane (11984 posts) -
Might be a bit of a conspiracy theorist here - but I've noticed that these seemingly unmissable shots that miss happen more as the game goes on. It's either part of an artificial difficulty spike, or just a bit of a rip. It sometimes just feels a bit too - convenient, maybe, when you have 4 90% + chance to hit a later-game Muton Berzerker and they all miss. My poor sniper isn't the only one vocally lamenting those misses. I even had my first missile go wide yesterday, it was very nearly a controller-throwing moment.
#27 Posted by vfibsux (4205 posts) -

Yea it reminds me of the old "comeback code" in Madden.

#28 Posted by MirkoS77 (7619 posts) -

I've changed the difficulty to easy, the percentages seem to be exactly the same, yet my guys hit probably 75% of the time whereas on normal shots usually connect at most 50% if I'm lucky.  The percentages don't seem at all consistent.

#29 Posted by dzimm (4651 posts) -

As the saying goes, random is random. Missing four 90% shots in a row is entirely possible when we're dealing with random numbers.

Part of the problem, I think, is that people have a tendancy to remember the high percentage shots that missed rather than the majority of ones that hit. In order to test the accuracy of percentages, you'd need to keep track of every single shot throughout several battles -- the more the better -- and then see how the numbers add up.

#30 Posted by redsoull (251 posts) -

Go sit for a shot and save.

Take the shot and note if its a hit or a miss. Load the save and t ake like 50 shots.

After like 50 times you could argue if its really a 70% chance or just bullocks. If its rigged like some say, then you are going to get either 50 hits or 50 misses.

#31 Posted by MN121MN (466 posts) -

I've kept track of mine, and I don't trust the hit percentage system. Most of my shots are from experience playing FPS.

 

On a side note, I've noticed that snieprs are 90% more accurate.... I've gotten a lot of close range kills with 50-65% using sniper rifles, and even when I have a 78% chance to hit the target I can still hit it....

 

One thing I've known though, the statistics is not locked. I've missed a shot some missions ago and reload the game again, and I managed to land a shot ('till my Heavy died, and then it's all re-load again)

#32 Posted by dzimm (4651 posts) -

Go sit for a shot and save.

Take the shot and note if its a hit or a miss. Load the save and t ake like 50 shots.

After like 50 times you could argue if its really a 70% chance or just bullocks. If its rigged like some say, then you are going to get either 50 hits or 50 misses.

redsoull

Except the random seed is saved with the game so that people can't "save scum" -- that is continuously reload a game until even a 1% chance results in a hit.  That's why I said you'd have to keep track of multiple shots throughout several battles.

#33 Posted by ttransfer (3 posts) -
err... one of my guys missed a 100 % shot. No joke. It was a couple nights back, up close with a laser or plasma pistol i think
#34 Posted by ttransfer (3 posts) -
...might've been that fragment shotgun thing actually... but anyways, he missed and i let it slide cos my sniper pulls a 40% headshots on a regular basis. Those percentages dont seem to mean much more than a very fuzzy idea of what might happen. Stick n move :D
#35 Posted by ttransfer (3 posts) -
and they appear to mean even less on classic difficulty - just had an 80% shot with 100% crit for headshot and scored 3 dmg on one of those purple zombie makin dudes... slightly inconsistent stats to say the least eh :D
#36 Posted by Jorlen (1013 posts) -

After 30+ hours and a TON of shots fired, I haven't had any issues with the hit % and I've played TONS of games that have had them (going way back to the original 2D fallout games).

While I've never had a hit miss on 95% I have had some frustrating runs of bad luck.  I.e. 90% missing or 85% missing a few in a row, which can suck.  But that's what happens when a dice is rolled.  A 95% chance isn't a guarantee, nor any other high percentage chance.

What would the dev benefit in messing with these numbers?  Nothing.  The game is difficult enough.

And for the guy missing a 100% chance to hit, I find it difficult to believe that it would happen (I am NOT saying you're lying btw)... Has that been reported anywhere else by anyone else?

#37 Posted by _Judas_ (750 posts) -
As a matter of fact; my character did miss completely on a 100% shot, BUT!! This is a huge But... the alien got hit. So, the animation screwed up, my soldier stood right beside the alien and aimed completely the wrong way, and fired his shotgun into thin air. The alien still died.... 100% hit that missed really hit... so he did not really 'miss'. I've made my soldiers, though I usually don't take low-percentage shots, killed aliens with 33% hit percentage. It is more annoying when soldiers miss on reaction shots, especially if the alien is 3-4 meters away :p but I guess it balances out when my sniper shoots through buildings and kills and ethereal ;) So remember people: even 80% shots have 20% chance of missing. 33% shots have 67% chance at missing. 100% shots have 0% at missing. I like the fact that the Fallout-games never give you 100% hit chance. I believe the best is 95%.
#38 Posted by JayNaxious1 (1 posts) -
Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses? Demsul
True, I experienced the same thing 5 minuts ago. A sniper with 95% normal hit percentage and 100% critical hit percentage(using the headshot ability) missed 5 times. if this is going to happend more times, throughout my playthrough... Ill ragequit.
#39 Posted by Diminisher (1006 posts) -
How do people not know that reloading changes absolutely nothing? You will always miss that shot what you do is not shoot and let the alien shoot next. Shot will miss.