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ForumsXCOM: Enemy Unknown ForumHit Percentage Appear to be Lying!

# Hit Percentage Appear to be Lying!

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• Oct 16, 2012 6:28 am GMT
Wassabi21 wrote:

Demsul wrote:
Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses?

I'm willing to bet you are making that up. I've clocked over a hundred hours in this game, beaten it on impossible, and not once seen 100% miss. That, or you misread the percentage.

You should youtube and immortalize yourself as a perfect example of current generation of m*rons, and you just took the title "m*ron of the day". Congrats on that bro

Using an elementary school logic, it has been stated that the calculations are already predetermined. And that even a 92% chance hit misses or not connects, due to a either a misrepresentation and/or coding error. Wouldn't it be only logical to assume that even 100% can and is misrepresented and/or miscalculated. For the record I personally had a dozen of 100% shots miss. If you still don't want to accept you are not superior in any way to other human beings, I will make a video just for you. So that you can actually see what he is talking about, if you have a problem understanding the concept of mathematics and probability. Here is an good book on a subject.

http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf

It is my heart's desire that you actually read it, to your own benefit in the future. All the best.
[QUOTE="Wassabi21"]

[QUOTE="Demsul"]Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses? [/QUOTE]

I'm willing to bet you are making that up. I've clocked over a hundred hours in this game, beaten it on impossible, and not once seen 100% miss. That, or you misread the percentage.

[/QUOTE] You should youtube and immortalize yourself as a perfect example of current generation of m*rons, and you just took the title "m*ron of the day". Congrats on that bro:) Using an elementary school logic, it has been stated that the calculations are already predetermined. And that even a 92% chance hit misses or not connects, due to a either a misrepresentation and/or coding error. Wouldn't it be only logical to assume that even 100% can and is misrepresented and/or miscalculated. For the record I personally had a dozen of 100% shots miss. If you still don't want to accept you are not superior in any way to other human beings, I will make a video just for you. So that you can actually see what he is talking about, if you have a problem understanding the concept of mathematics and probability. Here is an good book on a subject. http://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf It is my heart's desire that you actually read it, to your own benefit in the future. All the best.
• Oct 16, 2012 6:36 am GMT
I would like to see a video of a 100% chance shot miss, I have yet to miss on a 100% after about 50 hours playing.

Typical Post Trolls stomachs can only swell up to about 14 pages, any more and it ruptures, forcing their bodies to go septic with logic and what not. ~cursedseishi

I would like to see a video of a 100% chance shot miss, I have yet to miss on a 100% after about 50 hours playing.
• Oct 16, 2012 6:58 am GMT

veryraiser wrote:
it has been stated that the calculations are already predetermined.

You're right, it has been stated.  It just happens to be wrong.

[QUOTE="veryraiser"]it has been stated that the calculations are already predetermined.[/QUOTE]

You're right, it has been stated.  It just happens to be wrong.

http://techland.time.com/2012/10/12/why-xcoms-random-results-sometimes-arent-and-you-should-play-on-ironman/

• Oct 16, 2012 1:11 pm GMT
An interesting read - if you do a set sequence of actions over and over again they will have the exact same outcome if the reload is within the mission - but if you change your sequence slightly it may give a different outcome. Obviously they don't want to give away exactly how it works or people would find a way around it - but this method does stop people just reloading for each action that doesn't go exactly as they want it.
An interesting read - if you do a set sequence of actions over and over again they will have the exact same outcome if the reload is within the mission - but if you change your sequence slightly it may give a different outcome. Obviously they don't want to give away exactly how it works or people would find a way around it - but this method does stop people just reloading for each action that doesn't go exactly as they want it.
• Oct 16, 2012 3:18 pm GMT

Sorry but FAR to often I miss 75% and higher shots, seems more like 50/50 chance per shot to me. If I am not behind full cover good luck with the aliens missing tho....

Sorry but FAR to often I miss 75% and higher shots, seems more like 50/50 chance per shot to me. If I am not behind full cover good luck with the aliens missing tho....

• Oct 17, 2012 6:15 pm GMT
Might be a bit of a conspiracy theorist here - but I've noticed that these seemingly unmissable shots that miss happen more as the game goes on. It's either part of an artificial difficulty spike, or just a bit of a rip.

It sometimes just feels a bit too - convenient, maybe, when you have 4 90% + chance to hit a later-game Muton Berzerker and they all miss. My poor sniper isn't the only one vocally lamenting those misses.

I even had my first missile go wide yesterday, it was very nearly a controller-throwing moment.
Might be a bit of a conspiracy theorist here - but I've noticed that these seemingly unmissable shots that miss happen more as the game goes on. It's either part of an artificial difficulty spike, or just a bit of a rip. It sometimes just feels a bit too - convenient, maybe, when you have 4 90% + chance to hit a later-game Muton Berzerker and they all miss. My poor sniper isn't the only one vocally lamenting those misses. I even had my first missile go wide yesterday, it was very nearly a controller-throwing moment.
• Oct 17, 2012 6:22 pm GMT

Yea it reminds me of the old "comeback code" in Madden.

Yea it reminds me of the old "comeback code" in Madden.

• Oct 18, 2012 12:10 am GMT

I've changed the difficulty to easy, the percentages seem to be exactly the same, yet my guys hit probably 75% of the time whereas on normal shots usually connect at most 50% if I'm lucky.  The percentages don't seem at all consistent.

I've changed the difficulty to easy, the percentages seem to be exactly the same, yet my guys hit probably 75% of the time whereas on normal shots usually connect at most 50% if I'm lucky.  The percentages don't seem at all consistent.

• Oct 18, 2012 9:13 am GMT

As the saying goes, random is random. Missing four 90% shots in a row is entirely possible when we're dealing with random numbers.

Part of the problem, I think, is that people have a tendancy to remember the high percentage shots that missed rather than the majority of ones that hit. In order to test the accuracy of percentages, you'd need to keep track of every single shot throughout several battles -- the more the better -- and then see how the numbers add up.

Edited on Oct 18, 2012 9:14 am GMT Edited 2 total times.

As the saying goes, random is random. Missing four 90% shots in a row is entirely possible when we're dealing with random numbers.

Part of the problem, I think, is that people have a tendancy to remember the high percentage shots that missed rather than the majority of ones that hit. In order to test the accuracy of percentages, you'd need to keep track of every single shot throughout several battles -- the more the better -- and then see how the numbers add up.

• Oct 18, 2012 4:53 pm GMT

Go sit for a shot and save.

Take the shot and note if its a hit or a miss. Load the save and t ake like 50 shots.

After like 50 times you could argue if its really a 70% chance or just bullocks. If its rigged like some say, then you are going to get either 50 hits or 50 misses.

Go sit for a shot and save.

Take the shot and note if its a hit or a miss. Load the save and t ake like 50 shots.

After like 50 times you could argue if its really a 70% chance or just bullocks. If its rigged like some say, then you are going to get either 50 hits or 50 misses.

• Oct 19, 2012 9:40 am GMT

I've kept track of mine, and I don't trust the hit percentage system. Most of my shots are from experience playing FPS.

On a side note, I've noticed that snieprs are 90% more accurate.... I've gotten a lot of close range kills with 50-65% using sniper rifles, and even when I have a 78% chance to hit the target I can still hit it....

One thing I've known though, the statistics is not locked. I've missed a shot some missions ago and reload the game again, and I managed to land a shot ('till my Heavy died, and then it's all re-load again)

I've kept track of mine, and I don't trust the hit percentage system. Most of my shots are from experience playing FPS.

On a side note, I've noticed that snieprs are 90% more accurate.... I've gotten a lot of close range kills with 50-65% using sniper rifles, and even when I have a 78% chance to hit the target I can still hit it....

One thing I've known though, the statistics is not locked. I've missed a shot some missions ago and reload the game again, and I managed to land a shot ('till my Heavy died, and then it's all re-load again)

• Oct 23, 2012 1:05 pm GMT

redsoull wrote:

Go sit for a shot and save.

Take the shot and note if its a hit or a miss. Load the save and t ake like 50 shots.

After like 50 times you could argue if its really a 70% chance or just bullocks. If its rigged like some say, then you are going to get either 50 hits or 50 misses.

Except the random seed is saved with the game so that people can't "save scum" -- that is continuously reload a game until even a 1% chance results in a hit.  That's why I said you'd have to keep track of multiple shots throughout several battles.

[QUOTE="redsoull"]

Go sit for a shot and save.

Take the shot and note if its a hit or a miss. Load the save and t ake like 50 shots.

After like 50 times you could argue if its really a 70% chance or just bullocks. If its rigged like some say, then you are going to get either 50 hits or 50 misses.

[/QUOTE]

Except the random seed is saved with the game so that people can't "save scum" -- that is continuously reload a game until even a 1% chance results in a hit.  That's why I said you'd have to keep track of multiple shots throughout several battles.

• Nov 19, 2012 1:34 am GMT
err... one of my guys missed a 100 % shot. No joke. It was a couple nights back, up close with a laser or plasma pistol i think
err... one of my guys missed a 100 % shot. No joke. It was a couple nights back, up close with a laser or plasma pistol i think
• Nov 19, 2012 1:41 am GMT
...might've been that fragment shotgun thing actually... but anyways, he missed and i let it slide cos my sniper pulls a 40% headshots on a regular basis. Those percentages dont seem to mean much more than a very fuzzy idea of what might happen. Stick n move
...might've been that fragment shotgun thing actually... but anyways, he missed and i let it slide cos my sniper pulls a 40% headshots on a regular basis. Those percentages dont seem to mean much more than a very fuzzy idea of what might happen. Stick n move :D
• Nov 19, 2012 5:47 am GMT
and they appear to mean even less on classic difficulty - just had an 80% shot with 100% crit for headshot and scored 3 dmg on one of those purple zombie makin dudes... slightly inconsistent stats to say the least eh
and they appear to mean even less on classic difficulty - just had an 80% shot with 100% crit for headshot and scored 3 dmg on one of those purple zombie makin dudes... slightly inconsistent stats to say the least eh :D
• Nov 19, 2012 11:38 am GMT

After 30+ hours and a TON of shots fired, I haven't had any issues with the hit % and I've played TONS of games that have had them (going way back to the original 2D fallout games).

While I've never had a hit miss on 95% I have had some frustrating runs of bad luck.  I.e. 90% missing or 85% missing a few in a row, which can suck.  But that's what happens when a dice is rolled.  A 95% chance isn't a guarantee, nor any other high percentage chance.

What would the dev benefit in messing with these numbers?  Nothing.  The game is difficult enough.

And for the guy missing a 100% chance to hit, I find it difficult to believe that it would happen (I am NOT saying you're lying btw)... Has that been reported anywhere else by anyone else?

__________________________________

"As bent as the soviet sickle, and as hard as the hammer that crosses it."

.

After 30+ hours and a TON of shots fired, I haven't had any issues with the hit % and I've played TONS of games that have had them (going way back to the original 2D fallout games).

While I've never had a hit miss on 95% I have had some frustrating runs of bad luck.  I.e. 90% missing or 85% missing a few in a row, which can suck.  But that's what happens when a dice is rolled.  A 95% chance isn't a guarantee, nor any other high percentage chance.

What would the dev benefit in messing with these numbers?  Nothing.  The game is difficult enough.

And for the guy missing a 100% chance to hit, I find it difficult to believe that it would happen (I am NOT saying you're lying btw)... Has that been reported anywhere else by anyone else?

• Nov 21, 2012 7:01 am GMT
As a matter of fact; my character did miss completely on a 100% shot, BUT!! This is a huge But... the alien got hit. So, the animation screwed up, my soldier stood right beside the alien and aimed completely the wrong way, and fired his shotgun into thin air. The alien still died.... 100% hit that missed really hit... so he did not really 'miss'.

I've made my soldiers, though I usually don't take low-percentage shots, killed aliens with 33% hit percentage. It is more annoying when soldiers miss on reaction shots, especially if the alien is 3-4 meters away :p but I guess it balances out when my sniper shoots through buildings and kills and ethereal

So remember people: even 80% shots have 20% chance of missing. 33% shots have 67% chance at missing. 100% shots have 0% at missing. I like the fact that the Fallout-games never give you 100% hit chance. I believe the best is 95%.
As a matter of fact; my character did miss completely on a 100% shot, BUT!! This is a huge But... the alien got hit. So, the animation screwed up, my soldier stood right beside the alien and aimed completely the wrong way, and fired his shotgun into thin air. The alien still died.... 100% hit that missed really hit... so he did not really 'miss'. I've made my soldiers, though I usually don't take low-percentage shots, killed aliens with 33% hit percentage. It is more annoying when soldiers miss on reaction shots, especially if the alien is 3-4 meters away :p but I guess it balances out when my sniper shoots through buildings and kills and ethereal ;) So remember people: even 80% shots have 20% chance of missing. 33% shots have 67% chance at missing. 100% shots have 0% at missing. I like the fact that the Fallout-games never give you 100% hit chance. I believe the best is 95%.
• Dec 2, 2012 2:28 am GMT
Demsul wrote:
Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses?

True, I experienced the same thing 5 minuts ago. A sniper with 95% normal hit percentage and 100% critical hit percentage(using the headshot ability) missed 5 times.

if this is going to happend more times, throughout my playthrough... Ill ragequit.
[QUOTE="Demsul"]Well, my sniper had a no kidding 100% chance to hit. He fired and he missed. I am not making that up. A 100% chance and he frikkin' misses? [/QUOTE] True, I experienced the same thing 5 minuts ago. A sniper with 95% normal hit percentage and 100% critical hit percentage(using the headshot ability) missed 5 times. if this is going to happend more times, throughout my playthrough... Ill ragequit.
• Dec 4, 2012 5:19 pm GMT
How do people not know that reloading changes absolutely nothing? You will always miss that shot what you do is not shoot and let the alien shoot next. Shot will miss.

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How do people not know that reloading changes absolutely nothing? You will always miss that shot what you do is not shoot and let the alien shoot next. Shot will miss.
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