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Pachter projects March sales surge

By Tom Magrino, GameSpotPosted Apr 14, 2008 1:23 pm PT

Wedbush Morgan's headline-grabbing analyst believes Nintendo has lifted US Wii constraints, PS3 has bested X360 sales, Smash Bros. Brawl and Vegas 2 led industry to 47 percent software sales spike.

Last week, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian predicted gaming software sales had grown by a heady 35 percent in March, defying the US' current period of reduced economic activity that former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan has called a recession. According to Sebastian, consumers were drawn out of their spending cocoons by new releases such as Super Smash Bros. Brawl, Tom Clancy's Rainbow Six Vegas 2, and Army of Two, strong catalog sales of Call of Duty 4 and Rock Band, and improving PlayStation 3 sales.

Today, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter issued his predictions for the five-week period of March, concurring in large part with Sebastian but predicting a far more bullish take for the month. According to Pachter, software sales rocketed 47 percent in March to $850 million, with current-generation titles contributing $705 million and the remaining $145 million coming from legacy systems.

Unsurprisingly, Pachter named Nintendo's Super Smash Bros. Brawl and Ubisoft's Rainbow Six Vegas 2 as sales leaders for March, selling through 2 million and 600,000 units respectively. EA's controversial Army of Two also performed well at retail in its first month, Pachter believes, selling 300,000 units. Take-Two's two debuts--MLB 2K8 and Bully: Scholarship Edition--performed similarly well, with each selling respective 250,000 and 100,000 copies. In all, Pachter thinks 20 different titles sold more than 100,000 units in March, up from 16 during the same period of time last year.

Pachter also took a stab at hardware figures for the month, saying Nintendo's Wii would far-and-away be the console sales leader with 700,000 units. If that number seems disproportional to February's 432,000 units, Pachter says it is because Nintendo has decided to ship to the US its "fair share."

"Since April 2007, Nintendo has manufactured 1.8 million Wiis per month, implying that US share should be somewhere between 720,000 to 900,000 units per month (40 to 50 percent of total units produced). We believe that Nintendo has diverted a significant portion of its available supply to Europe since April, as the weakening dollar has made US sales less profitable for the company. However, we believe that European supply has caught up with demand, and think that the company likely shipped the US its 'fair share' in the month of March, particularly in light of Nintendo's need to support the launch of Super Smash Brothers Brawl."

As for the Wii's competitors, Pachter believes Sony's PlayStation 3 continues to make gains on the Xbox 360, outselling Microsoft's console 365,000 units to 310,000. On the handheld front, Pachter predicts yet another big month for the Nintendo DS, with the ubiquitous portable logging another 700,000 systems sold. Pachter also foresees Sony's PlayStation Portable as also having had a strong month, selling 300,000 units.

138 Comments

  • teknicz

    Posted Apr 17, 2008 4:23 pm PT

    Wow people care about how many thumbs down's they get? What difference does it make? Online pride?

  • Trintyofme

    Posted Apr 17, 2008 8:12 am PT

    haha people just don’t get it.. I like the 360 sure its got ups and downs but so does the PS3 I got one too.. but I know that its a preference, I don’t believe that either system is really better then another I think that they are better for the people that like them. There will always be the people that like Sony over Microsoft and vice versa I loved my PS2 never was in to Xbox until I got one then I liked that still I didn’t think OMG I must hate anyone who likes Sony that’s stupid, you like what you like its like saying if you like pasta over Chinese you are a fan boy to Italian umm no you just like pasta just get over it its called OPINIONS! o·pin·ion o·pin·ion [ə pínnyən]
    (plural o·pin·ions) n 1. personal view: the view somebody takes about an issue, especially when it is based solely on personal judgment In my opinion it's all a waste of time.

  • goldeneye_basic

    Posted Apr 16, 2008 11:21 am PT

    Darkride, do you honestly believe that your posts are not biased? You religiously defend the PS3 (look at how many posts you've made) and yet you say anyone that is pro Xbox 360 is a fanboy while acting like you are neutral. I agree with mysterylobster. You thought he was kidding because he said he liked Halo3. I'm pretty sure millions of people like that game. Gamespot gave it a 9.5. Anyone that goes into a forum to bash a game of that stature is just trolling. Just because a game is not for everyone doesn't mean a lot of other people don't like it.

  • mysterylobster

    Posted Apr 16, 2008 6:57 am PT

    darkride, it has nothing to do with fanboys. You and others get thumbs down due to your constant negativity, like when you suggested I must be joking because of my enthusiasm for a game which has gained almost universal acclaim.

  • darkride66

    Posted Apr 16, 2008 5:46 am PT

    @ the_real_VIP. Yep. No love around these parts for those that actually want to look at numbers and discuss what the game and console sales actually mean. Generally, if you've not 100% pro Xbox360, or your comments can even be construed as anything but "360 rulz", expect to get thumbs downed around these here parts. It's sad really. I remember what this site used to be like. You always had a few fanboys, but this gen it's almost become a religion.

  • the_real_VIP

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 11:56 pm PT

    Man, those comments' rating should be removed: some people have totally wrong info in their comments and they get lots of thumbs up because of fanboyism, but others have the correct info and gets thumbs down so much their comment is hidden.

  • K-Grogg

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 6:37 pm PT

    Lookin' good.

  • mysterylobster

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 2:09 pm PT

    "Is Michael Pachter on Gamespot's payroll? He gets a little too much attention from this site."

    He seems to be the primary source in many of Tom Magrino's articles. I think it's a case of lazy reporting.

  • pezus posted Apr 15, 2008 1:48 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    pezus

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 1:48 pm PT (hide)

    @Makaatsu
    Maybe the difference in Game sales is because of user base difference?

  • darkride66 posted Apr 15, 2008 1:45 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    darkride66

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 1:45 pm PT (hide)

    @ Makaatsu. I'll keep this short. I used the hardware table on vgcharts, plugged in the 4 weeks of Dec and selected Total (for worldwide sales). That's where my numbers come from. Anyone doesn't believe me, and why on earth would I lie, can easily go and verify this. MS is in last place this quarter. Recent mulitconsole titles such as DMC4 and Burnout are selling almost as good if not better on the PS3. This is a recent trend, but a trend none the less. You dismissing this based on past sales data doesn't change this fact. Hopefully for the 360's sake MS is taking notice and not just burying their head in the sand like you're implying they should do. I really can't understand your motivation in spinning this info. What does it matter to you that the PS3 has pulled ahead of MS? The Wii's still far in front and knowing the PS3 is doing better doesn't hurt my enjoyment of 360 titles anymore than the 360 leading thus far hampered my enjoyment of RFOM, or Uncharted, or Warhawk.

  • Makaatsu

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 1:31 pm PT

    @Darkride
    Those numbers i just linked were from vgchartz......
    So your numbers must have come from a different source because the numbers i just showed you were from there AND fthe NA part were backed up by NPD hence the link.

    And again i am neutral and speaking from an analysts point of view i don't think Microsoft will be worried by being 3rd for as long as this generation remains. They were ahead of the PS3 for 13 of the PS3's 16 months (if this month the PS3 comes ahead of the 360 ofc)

    The numbers that they are ahead by are by only 100k max a month as i keep mentioning. Those numbers will DECREASE as the months go by meaning that if even the 360 failed to sell one single console for a month they wouldn't sell 100k to catch up. It's what happens with all technology.

    Microsoft won't be concerned because they have the one thing going strong that they specialise in and that is software. You know as well as i'm sure everyone else does the $$$ is made by selling games. And right now the PS3 isn't even on the same page when it comes to game sales. For the month of march if you add up the figures for WORLDWIDE sales you get PS3 - 4.572m games sold
    360 - 6.511m games sold
    That is almost 50% more games sold on the 360.

    So i don't think Microsoft would be worried at all. I think it confirms what i said all along that the reason the PS3 sales appear to be better is because people who already own a 360 are buying one for various reasons. But selling a console is one thing, getting those people to buy games for that console is something totaly different and Sony should be more concerned about the fact that 2m gap is widening each month.

  • darkride66 posted Apr 15, 2008 1:01 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    darkride66

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 1:01 pm PT (hide)

    @ Makaatsu. Hey, don't tell me I'm wrong, I'm just taking what vgchartz shows for worldwide sales, and it sure isn't 2:1 for the 360. I didn't count them myself. Your numbers could just as easily be incorrect. You say 80000 to the 360 side, vgchartz says 80000 for the PS3 side. It's pretty close either way. End of the day, the 360 loses this quarter. How many months do they have to come in last before MS starts to get concerned? 4 months? 6 months of last place? I'm also sick of you throwing around that fanboy label. I'm a huge fan of the 360, and of the PS3. Just because I'm not blind to sales trends (3 months=Trend) doesn't mean I'm a PS3 fanboy, only that I can read. How many times do I have to repeat, I could care less if people think one console is better than the others. I don't get caught up in that nonsense, and console preference is going to differ from person to person. The only person looking to make this fanboy flame bait appears to be you.

  • Makaatsu

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 12:43 pm PT

    @Loucetios & Darkride

    Dear oh dear, see the difference is you guys are fanboys trying hard to come across neutrual. So because of that you dismiss facts and exchange them for your opinion. But okay lets look at it shall we...
    Dec 2007 figures. 360 sells - 1.26 million PS3 sells - 797k
    That is almost 2-1 sales....
    http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6184847.html

    Now to "the rest of the world and Japan"
    December 2007 sales
    PS3 - 1.05m
    360 - 668k

    Now combined Dec 2007 numbers = Ps3 = 1.847m
    360 = 1.928m

    So both of you are wrong that the PS3 sold more then 360 worldwide for that month.....

    As for the Japan comment you are right Loucetios 360 is doing major poor and selling like 2k a week! But so is the PS3 on home soil it is selling only 10k a week, that is only 8k more a week...

    So as i said in my initial post before you both went commando fanboy on us the 360 has had it's day in terms of shiffting more consoles then the PS3, that is expected. But the PS3 gains are slowing and that means it will take a very long time to catch up. At it's current rate it would take over 5 years to do so. So does that mean the PS3 is great because it has sold more per month? Clearly you would like us to think so!

  • puppiemaster

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 12:32 pm PT

    Love all my consoles, might even buy a new game for my PS3 this year, but it wont be MGS, I just don't like those types of games.

    Still playing my 360 (COD4) the most, then my Wii (GH3,Mario Kart, Mario Galaxy) and then my PS3 (GTA Vice City), glad I have 60Gig, would just be a paper weight otherwise.

  • Phazevariance

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 11:28 am PT

    Halo is hardly the best series IMO but I sitll love my 360 more than any of the other consoles I won or have owned. Yeah, I'll miss out on a few PS3 titles most likely, the exclusives anyways, but that's ok, because i'm happy with the exclusives the 360 has to offer. I"m freakin pumped for NG2!! Summer time can't get here fast enough!!

  • _JPH_

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 10:51 am PT

    @ loucetios:

    Halo 3 is not on the top 10 best review games list on gamespot? After gamespot changed its review system to be rounded to 0.5, no game earned a 10/10, so the highest score is 9.5. The orange box earned 9.5, crysis too, along with other few games. Halo 3 is one of the best FPS shooters in the world, and it has one of the best entertaining features in a video game. And about the FF games, I was one of the biggest FF fans ever. i finished each FF at least 3 times. But after FF 10, the game kinda lost its touch. I mean look at FF 12. What a joke. And FF7? Please, the game is too much overrated. They just make the story much more complex every time an FF 7 is released.

  • darkride66 posted Apr 15, 2008 10:09 am PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    darkride66

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 10:09 am PT (hide)

    mysterylobster. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to sound condescending. I didn't think you actually believed that, but clearly you thoroughly enjoyed Halo 3. As for the reviews, I believe Legend of Zelda - OOT was the best reviewed game of all time, until Super Mario Galaxy game took that crown. A quick check of metacritic shows a number of titles rated higher than Halo 3, including LOZ: Twilight, Super Smash, Orange Box, Bioshock, the first Halo, RE:4 among others. I liked Halo3, finished it twice, but the online didn't do anything for me. I found it much the same as Halo 2, and always found the weapons too cartoony for my liking. The first Halo is still my favorite. I'm glad you enjoyed it, though.
    Update: I just re-read your post. I thought you said the best reviewed game. You're right. The reviewers and fans sure liked it.

  • thekey posted Apr 15, 2008 9:56 am PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    thekey

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 9:56 am PT (hide)

    PS3 is going to come out the winner in the end. It will still be here in 2012 The Wii is a sinking ship thats staying afloat because of all the consoles it's selling but, WHERE'S THESE PHENOMINAL GAMES SALES AT? The Wii has the power od well the gamecube. The Wii sucks I don't care what you all say. The Xbox360 has games but systems that don't last more than a year and half. PS3 the winner hands down!

  • mysterylobster

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 9:49 am PT

    Um, no. Halo 3 is one of the best-reviewed games of all time. This site, for example, gave it a 9.5. It's commonly held to be the greatest online experience of all time, and the conclusion to the epic storyline of the Halo saga. Its greatness cannot be denied.

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