• 10Jan 06

  My 100th post set as a blog for all to read easily instead of tring to find it!

      I woke up this morning and knew what I had to do. I couldn't let my 100th post go on some random post about some other random topic. I had to make sure that it was unique, in it's own way.

      So here I am typing, to all, of you. I realized what I wanted to talk about. The PlayStation 3 and many things surrounding it. The Cell Processor is going to keep companies like Intel and AMD on their toes as it is years ahead of anything they have. Sure it won't be put into computers right away, but you know eventually it will be.

      Then, there is the blu-ray drive. That is so much better then the HD-DVD. It reads faster at 1x spead, and hold so much more information. Not only have they reached the dual-layer capacity of 54 GBs with it, they have reported they can triple and quadrouple layer in them so they can actually get over 100 GBs on a disc when they want and need to.

      The RSX also will be something if not alot ahead of current GPUs it will atleast be ahead slightly and be the best one on the market at the time.

      Now then they are also going to use the famous XDR ram for half the system RAM. Which is so much faster then what the ram is on the 360 it makes up for being so much smaller amount of RAM.

      Then BlueTooth for the controllers. I don't know about you guys, but I have RF controllers like the 360 has and they can have some severe lag problems. The nice thing about BlueTooth is it will eliminate all those lag problems, and also you get seven wireless controllers and in theory the PSP can be one and you could plug in four more so suddenly you could have up to twelve controllers at once.

     Now that is just insane but awesome still. And then there are those 1 GB ethernet ports, which at the moment seems like overkill, but then you remember the PS3 is future thinking not just for at the moment, so it's all gravy.

      Then you have the HDMI outputs. Again to most that seems odd to have two. But again they are forward thinking. I am sure that most of us have heard of LAN parties? Well this makes it nice, because you can have half the systems and still be able to pull it off.

      And for those poor guys and gals that don't have a HDTV yet or their TV is a little older they still have the orginal kind of inputs so you use composit, S-Video, or Compound video to achieve what you want to.

      And the system is Wi-Fi ready out of the box. Sony isn't going to make us pay 100 dollars to buy a special usb adaptor to make it Wi-Fi capable.  Which really means the 360 is $399.99 or $499.99 depending on which one of their SKUs you purchase.

      And last but not least, Sony has said that we should have a HDD of an unknown size in the PS3, so system updates and saves should be much easier. But if we don't feel like doing that there are always those memory card slot readers, to save that type of information and transfer music, video, and pictures to your PS3.

      So I say we rejoice, for the PS3, and wait for Sony to make it perfect, and release it when it's 100% ready!

  • Posted Jan 10, 2006 9:08 am PT
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• 13Dec 05

  The WAR that Sony will WIN because that's the way it is!?!?!

  I've kept well informed of the development of the PS3. I have a few predictions about the PS3. But first on a complete side note I just want to say that the news about motorstorm is insane. If this is how the game will be I will go nuts. The graphics are good, but even if they were only 360 good that'd be fine with me. Because the physics look awesome. This is what Ken and Sony is going for for a new way of gaming harnessing CELL. Instead of making it look 10% more realistic, make it feel 200% more realistic with realtime interactions. I feel like Mad Max watching those videos with dune buggies rolling around, I hate sports titles, and I hate how 1 in 3 games is a racing game, but Motorstorm has me completely thrilled.
  
  The price of the PS3 is going to be $399 - $450 most likely (with the option on $499 maybe). People keep pointing out to history and how the PS2 was $299. But here's the thing, compare it to a computer. Back when the PS2 came out, it had 32 megs of memory. Now let's install windows 2000 on a PS2 with 32 megs of memory and a custom (somewhere around 266 mhz processor.. right?). HA! Now let's imagine installing Linux or OS X on a PS3 with a 3.2 ghz computer with 256 MB of ram. No problem. It wouldn't be blindingly fast unless common libraries were SPE optimized (if for example malloc/free ran on a dedicated SPE, etc) But it's doable JUST on the PPC. the PS3 is definitely going to be more expensive.
  
  The people who add up the components and end up at $299 and then just say the rest will be sold at a loss. That's like taking a computer program estimating the amount of time it will take to code up the 3 main features and then saying we'll be done then. Systems integration, making the custom case, LEDs, buttons, the motherboard, the motherboards chipsets, paying to keep some assembly line running to assemble the things, the box they come in and manual and plastic bags that enclose everything. It's not going to be cheap. Let's face it if they offer it for $399 with blu-ray they are essentially making a console that is already ridiculously cheaper than XBOX360. Here, for the same price have a BD-Rom player. And let's not forget that with 1080p support we are talking about an unparalleled BD player.
  
  Performance. I've seen some people bash the xbox360 for various reasons and there are some technical reasons why the PS3 will be better. Here is my prediciton. The PS3 has more horsepower. But it is harder to harness. My gut instinct is that at launch the PS3 will look better than xbox360 launch titles and be about on par with the newer XBOX360 titles (let's face it 360 launch titles are rush jobs that aren't going to show off the 360). HOWEVER, developers will then over the next 5 years harness the 54GB disc capacity, the PPE + 7 (usable) SPEs to make games that make the ps3 launch titles look pretty sloppy. The ps3 will sell really well throughout its lifetime and the 360 will be bought buy the original fan boys in the beginning and that's that.
  
  Here's where PS3 fans will probably flame me. I think Sony is using its technology smarter than 360. They have so many transistors to use, and the CELL is using them well. RSX isn't likely to be as revolutionary when compared to ATI's offerings as the CELL is compared to 360's CPU. This is why the 120fps at 1080p is an unrealistic claim. People think pre-rendering demos of the ps2 were misleading, but this time around it's this claim that is misleading us. The shear resolution of 1080p is crippling. I would absolutely love to see games run in 1080p. But it's unlikely to be many. I think if sony really wanted to shoot for this, they might have been like ATI and included a dedicated frame buffer RAM module to offload that huge access cost. Cross my fingers hoping I am wrong an that PS3 can do 1080p for real games. But I think it's more likely to do 1080i or 720p upscaled.
  
  Launch. It makes sense to do a USA -> Japan -> Europe launch, because Japan faces no stiff competition. But Japan will get the launch first. This is a Japanese company and they will not dishonor Japan like that I doubt. When they say spring '06 I'm guessing they mean the very very last day that could be considered spring for a Japan launch. Then months later for the USA launch. It just seems like they'd be further along than just having dev kits in the hands of developers a little bit ago.
  
  CES. There is going to be a PS3 presence. This has been announced. But let's think about this. It's not really a game show, it's not a Sony show, it wasn't on the initial roadmap. I'm guessing they aren't going to drop the bomb here. They aren't going to make huge surprise announcements or put the games in people's hands. They are going to do 2 key things:
  
  1. Remind people that the PS3 is making more progress than skeptics think at the moment. They are probably going to show more pre-recorded stuff that was rendered live, or actual gameplay, as in somebody was at the controls while the video was recorded.
  
  2. Make a few key announcements about the PS3 that don't have to do with the actual graphics/gaming. Something like PlaystationOnline. A place to meet, share PS3 media, make friends, etc... ORRRRR. digital convergence, the PS3 will communicate with an upcoming CELL workstation and they will form a computation grid.
  
  This is an electronics show. And this is actually where I think it is MOST important for PS3 to show. Why? Because Sony has got plans. MS has been losing money on xbox, so why a 360? not because 360 is going to make money, and not because the next one might make money. It's because Sony has never called the Playstation a game machine. It's always an entertainment device. This means that Sony has no qualms about creating a device that would completely eliminate the need for Windows Media Center edition, and all the digital convergence technology that MS could cash in on using its windows deployment base. Why do you think MS repeatedly states they don't want to have a keyboard on the xbox? Well for one, they didn't want people to realize that it was a computer, but this time round it's for the shear reason that they want to herd the industry back to just playing games. Sony isn't playing that game. CES is an opportunity to show just that.
  
  How to make the PS3 win and the XBOX 360 lose?
  Sony needs to stop Square and other Japanese publishers from releasing great content on the XBOX. The XBOX is for people who want to play NFL 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008.. And.. Halo.... that's it. Xbox fans are unidimensional. That's where their numbers are.. As soon as Square starts releasing 360 only games, suddenly there's a reason to own a 360. (I think this is a good reason why Japan needs to get the PS3 first)
  
  I hope to buy an XBOX 360, (remember MS loses money on every sale) hopefully at a later time they will have the power brick sorted out as well as the CD eating. Then hopefully hackers will by then allow me to install Linux or Darwin on it. Then I will use it as my $300 email, web, kiosk computer. But if I can't use the 360 for that, forget about it.
  
  The future: Sony sales will remain strong for the PS3, Sony will also not be forced to make a bad mistake with the PS3 like over pricing it too much. Because Blu-Ray is relying on it too. So if PS3 wins, Sony wins with BR too. So there is so much money riding on winning, they can't afford to get no install base because they priced it at $800 or whatever. Sony is also in my opinion set to win on the PS4 too. The CELL processor is really innovative, and I think in 2010 when the PS4 is getting figured out, it's not going to take another 1.4bn dollars. They will make a Cell (perhaps CELL squared) which will be something like 1 PPU with 16 SPEs and then bound with another of the exact same type all running at maybe like 4ghz. Without that much more R&D. Suddenly PS3 games will run on PS4, which won't surprise you, but if they made another huge shift like I think MS would have to, emulating the PS3 would be impossible. Let's face it PS3 will emulate PS2 because it is 10x the mhz for core clock speed. But we've already seen clock speed increasing falling off. I think emulation won't be as much of an option in the next round of consoles.
  
  What do you all think?
  • Posted Dec 13, 2005 3:45 pm PT
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• 13Dec 05

  The WAR that Sony will win!?!?!

  Sony's marketing method for PS3 is very low tune. Basically sony is using MS to kill themself. Making nothing tranperant is the best way to make your enemy worry, and sony have done this well.
  
  By releasing spec that don't reflecked to the actual power of the machine, and talk on the possiblility sound far better then the spec. Force MS to use normal market technic which don't work with game sonsole industry so well.
  
  Result is forcing MS to launch xbox 360 as fast as possible which force all xbox's users to move on. Since PS2 is still main stream and will still be main stream even in 2008. So sony won't lose any present users, but on the other hand MS need to refresh all it's users. And refreshing user is dangerous, the result is you loose some and gain other. But in the case with xbox 360 since sony is not going to loose any, means MS by introduce xbox 360 is just going to loose some customers. And with the bad news for the low quality machine xbox 360 is. A number of xbox users are planning to move to PS3 which not only give them the power of PS3 but also the huge number of games from PS and PS2.
  
  Under a lot of polling done for game console for the last few years, Jap market is in saturation now ie not much to grow, and MS is still talking Jap market. I believe sony is planning a world launch much like MS is doing right now but with planty of stock. A complete machine of PS3 has already been made late Oct. Production of all the chips has already started in Nov (cell was in production since may). I think sony is buiding up stock in millions befoer launch. So eveyone can get their hands on PS3 quickly and spread news of how good PS3 is. The truth is why play with a down growing 20% market when you have a up growing 80% market in NA and EU. And making an region free machine is another smart move (xbox 360 is regioned) since a large number of NA users are willing to buy Jap game (this is why you have import game shop in US), and EU users want to get their games fast by buying NA and Jap games, making the machine region free means no more modding required.
  
  This round of next gen war sony is playing is far different from the console war we have seem it will be a world wide growth in user number and I am keeping my fingre cross for international online MMO games on PS3, since sony is making all the wideband connection standard on pS3. And the game developers will need to keep up with sony's paln on all angle business, expecting new game developers coming out of blue that making big hits. With multi angle business money don't just come from the user. Game is also a very good media for commercial why not putting commercial in games or best even direct sell through games. Hugury go to a pizza shop in you fauvorate MMORPG and buy a real pizza there 30min to you door.
  
  Looking at what they are talking on GDC makes me a little sad , most game developer just have no sense on business. With MMO gaming there is far more source of money then just from the users. Think wide and think big. make coke pay for your developement by making all the game characters drink coke products, get money from Mac by making all the character in the game use ipod. fesion, sports brand. Any commercial on hollywood moive can be done on games and better to save on development fee why just from us.
  
  Production of Cell chip was known, look into the E3 report combine what sony and IBM said and add some factory building business news for sony and IBM it's not hard to work out. Sorry, I did not mention I also have a master of study in Engineering project management.
  
  It's easy with industial process you have a special patten of making things. Look at nvidia's time line shown in E3 manufacture modle of RSX has been made in Oct, there is no way that sony and nvidia will stop and have a rest. And RSX was the last component on PS3 so all they need to do is to replace the present modle wich is using a GeForce 7800 replace by RSX, then you have a working model. this would be happening right after manufacture modle RSX has been made. And surely nvidia won't be resting, after you have manufacturing modle you start production of the chip. So by Dec when 9000 of the complete SDK kit (which needs all the chips in PS3 and more) for PS3 ship out which can be think as an upgrade deluxe version of PS3. Sony will already has some PS3 in stock, but you need time to buld up stock. For sony they use 3 month 1 million stock build up in the past. So by April sony will have 1 million or more PS3 in stock. This time since a number of companies are helping sony the stock build up could expect to be faster. After reading what Fox CEO's interview and a number of interview and polling I think sony is planning to pooling out 30 million PS3 by June 2007 and have the first price drop by chrismas 2006. No wonder all the media people are join force with blu-ray. DVD player was not even near this number even after 3 years on market.
  
  This is how I workout the movement of PS3, still using this info I can't workout the on sale date and price since it all depends on how explosive sony want the sales to be and how much they want to make. The safe line is US$399 which under most polling this number will give the best yeild of number of console sold multipley by the price. Sony could go for $299 which is the peak price but I doubt they will do that since their production rate won't be high enough to cought up the 50 million number estimated. As for the date I would be thinking of April to June possiblly most of the world will have their share of PS3 by July or August. Personally I think PS3 would make some recorde sale, but if I am sony I don't really care because for PS3 the fun only begines after 100 million sale. Expect this number to be reached by 3 to 4 years. Imagine MMO games with 100 million world wide online users. If I am SNK or capcom I will be planning world wide online arcade center since most arcade game players are in asia and US, not much in Japan. With ranking system to show how good a player you are, and price system for getting prize by playing games. Get big companies to support you, put commercial on the background of the games. Next gen games will be a very different style from what we have known games as.
  • Posted Dec 13, 2005 3:43 pm PT
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