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Gaming set to grow through August 2010 - Analyst

By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpotPosted Oct 20, 2009 3:37 pm PT

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter predicts that after potentially disappointing October results, "double-digit gains will be the norm" until the back half of next year.

The industry-tracking NPD Group yesterday released its US retail sales figures for September, and the numbers--while positive for the first time in six months--didn't live up to expectations. Today, Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter released a note to investors, echoing a fellow analyst's warning about the current month's sales while painting a rosier longer-term picture of the industry.

Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band may have disappointed in their retail debuts, but Pachter expects game sales to turn it up next month.

"We think that very solid hardware sales will continue in October, but expect the month to show a slight year-over-year decline, meaning that investors will likely have to be patient until the November sales data is released to see a substantial rebound in growth," Pachter said. "From November forward, we think that double-digit gains will be the norm, at least through August 2010."

In assessing what went wrong with his estimates for the September sales--which were up 5 percent when Pachter had predicted 21 percent--the analyst pointed to the music genre specifically. He had predicted the Guitar Hero and Rock Band franchises to bring in $220 million for the month with new releases like The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5. However, Pachter said the NPD Group's figures showed the brands generating just $115 million combined.

"What's striking is the low overall dollar figure for the two games, which were out for almost the entire month," he told GameSpot. "[The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5] combined fell short of $100 million, and I had forecast $210 million."

57 Comments

  • KrazzyDJ

    Posted Oct 23, 2009 12:18 am PT

    Supposedly, Modern Warfare 2 will bring gamers back to the stores.

  • rann89

    Posted Oct 22, 2009 3:44 pm PT

    I don't know. Considering the $10 hike in games, and people knowing games aren't even being completed now because they save stuff to sell as DLC, you can't compare gaming norms as they were the last few years. Unless you want to be left out of the loop, you're going to spend about 5-15 more dollars on already-60 dollar games. These "analysts" are just hoping Christmas is successful; I wouldn't bet on it.

  • MATERAZZI_23

    Posted Oct 22, 2009 12:58 pm PT

    LoL he's just off by over $110 million. EPIC FAIL!!!

  • Trogeton

    Posted Oct 22, 2009 8:32 am PT

    Well Duh that is when people start buying stuff for Christmas anyone could have thought of that

  • Its_a_me_luigi

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 3:54 pm PT

    Somebody, quote me! After MW2, AC2, Dragon Age: Origins, New Super Mario Bros, and more, the gaming industry will grow. I have just made a prediction, that is most likely true. I think I might be a genius!

  • diabloakaSAHA

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 2:14 pm PT

    ^^ Not much analysis there :/

  • Cwagmire21

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 1:19 pm PT

    Oh Michael Pachter - most overused analyst by GS.

  • SadPSPAddict

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 12:59 pm PT

    Now maybe developers can concentrate on some new games rather than very old and tired re-makes of things like RB and GH!!!

  • UnknownForm

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 12:20 pm PT

    You better be right, Michael Pachter!!!!

  • mutual-assassin

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 12:18 pm PT

    I'd much rather listen to a mute Rabbi's predictions than this guys.

  • ZedX-14Pilot

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 11:40 am PT

    Is this guy serious? This guy is a complete tool! He has been so wrong the last few months, why is gamespot continuing to quote this idiot?

  • Barhooom

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 7:12 am PT

    Given that this guy is never right... I feel bad for the gaming industry

  • ASG_

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 6:57 am PT

    @iilsSueZ
    Now that was funny.

  • iiIsSueZ

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 6:46 am PT

    Arkham and Uncharted 2 are 2 of the best games I've ever played. To be honest, this guy can't be wrong about next month. HUGE titles coming up including MW2, Assassin's Creed 2, Dragon Age: Origins etc. To be honest, my 80 year old granny could have predicted and increase in sales next month with those big boys on the way.

  • brian_13un

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 6:30 am PT

    There are still great titles coming up don't worry ^_^

  • Yuck_Too

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 6:29 am PT

    Oh my gawd...seriously he is still talking?...and we are still listening?

    Analyst Michael Patcher is clueless...honestly...he's the guy that 70% of the time is completely wrong and the other 30% he is only slightly wrong...

    This is the guy that predicted the Wii would be lucky to capture 34% of the console market. That Midway was worth investing in 2008 (promptly followed by Midway filing for bankruptcy). And that by 2009 the PSP and DS combined would sell 43 Million with the PSP outselling the DS.

    Then Patcher has the less-game related predictions that for example the reason Ken Kutaragi was promoted "out" of Sony was because he was going to replace Howard Stringer as CEO.

    And perhaps Patchers best "fail" prediction... he said: "I don't think there are four million people in the world who really want to play online games every month (refering to WoW and MMO's in general)... eventually it will come back to the mean, maybe a million subscribers."

    How this guy still have a job is beyond me...what I do know...you are much better off betting against him no matter what he says.

  • Gjinckxs85

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 6:11 am PT

    1: Those games are getting old. 2: Gaming will always be growing (DUH!). 3: You can't predict the future. 4: Who would listen to this guys garbage anyways?

  • bobbysbits

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 5:52 am PT

    it's good to know we can trust him...

  • Javico3000

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 4:50 am PT

    Junglemanchild has a good point... that must be the most critical reason, it doesn't matter if the guy just printed a guess, sometimes games produce a bit more than expected, or a bit less, but if they produced 1 guitar hero game a year... this year's game would have been purchased a lot more... just like Madden or Fifa

  • dynomitemasta

    Posted Oct 21, 2009 4:46 am PT

    This guy isn't even a gamer/analyst, he's a game industry analyst. There are plenty of gamer analysts out there who are far more accurate in their predictions then this guy. Without being a die hard gamer you don't have your finger on the pulse of the gaming world which is probably why this guy is wrong 90% of the time. Really, just stop printing his guesses.,, please.

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