Analysts mixed on February software sales

By Tom Magrino, GameSpotPosted Mar 16, 2009 5:16 pm PT

Killzone 2 and SFIV expected to lead month as industry-watcher estimates put game revenues at $659M-$710M; GTAIV: Lost and Damned sales forecasted to be $21M.

The NPD Group will release its US sales recap for the month of February this Thursday, and a trio of industry analysts can't come to an agreement on whether the results will reflect a win, lose, or draw.

Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson believes that the game industry matched its February 2008 performance, predicting software sales for the month will come in at $675 million. High-profile releases Street Fighter IV (Xbox 360, PlayStation 3) and Killzone 2 (PS3) led the sales for the month, Wilson believes that Call of Duty: World at War, Guitar Hero World Tour, Rock Band 2, Wii Fit, and Wii Play are also expected to perform well.

Wilson also noted that one to watch for in February will be Wii hardware sales, given that supply appears to have finally caught up with demand. "During the month of February, Wiis were largely in stock at major retailers," commented Wilson. "This does not appear to be a reflection of increased hardware deliveries. Instead, it was likely caused by the typical postholiday deceleration in demand and the existence of few new, big February releases. February data will be interesting, because they will be an indication of ongoing Wii demand rather than ongoing supply."

Although Wilson didn't take a crack at predicting Wii hardware sales, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter did. Pachter believes that Wii sales continued to soar in February, saying that he expects Nintendo to have sold 725,000 units on the month. That figure remains far higher than what Pachter believes Sony's or Microsoft's console mustered, with the former achieving 200,000 unit sales by his projections, and the latter logging 300,000 systems sold.

Pachter doesn't anticipate the PS3 to have seen much of a bump from the release of Guerrilla Games' highly anticipated Killzone 2, primarily due to the game's release late in the NPD's reporting period. However, Pachter does believe that the game helped drive software sales to $710 million, a 5.6 percent year-over-year climb. Other top performers during the period, as noted by Pachter, include Capcom's SFIV; Activision's Guitar Hero World Tour and Call of Duty: World at War; MTV Games' Rock Band 2; and Nintendo's Wii Fit and Wii Play.

Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich took the most pessimistic view of the US gaming industry's software performance. Divnich believes that software sales actually sunk during the month, a first since October 2008. According to the analyst, software came in at $659 million during February, a 2 percent year-over-year slip.

Divnich also expressed concern about the PS3's performance for the month, noting that the console is poised to log its fourth month in a row in which it saw year-over-year sales declines. Particularly, Divnich believes that Sony is losing the messaging war that the PS3 is the premier "core" gaming console.

"Case in point is Microsoft's recent announcement of a Resident Evil 5 hardware bundle, which is a deal between Microsoft, an American company, and Capcom, a Japanese company," observed Divnich. "Such a deal would have been unheard of in the last generation and its presence in this generation only reinforces the idea that even publishers are beginning to recognize the Xbox 360 as the superior console for targeting the core gaming market in North America."

Lastly, Divnich addressed the Xbox 360-exclusive Grand Theft Auto IV downloadable content, which will not be reflected in the NPD's monthly recap.

"EEDAR currently expects retail brick-and-mortar sales of Grand Theft Auto IV's Lost and Damned expansion to be under $3 million for the month--worldwide," he said. (The retail package contains a unique code that can then be used to download the game through Xbox Live.) "For digital distribution, we expect Lost and Damned to produce over $18 million in sales (worldwide). As we move forward, we expect that 6-to-1 ratio to grow even larger, as digitally distributed games don't have to succumb to retail pressures and loss of shelf space/visibility. Long-term, we expect Lost and Damned to produce up to $40 million in total worldwide revenue."

90 Comments

  • bennae66

    Posted Mar 21, 2009 2:21 am PT

    forget bias; own all 3 of the big systems and sony dug this grave themselves. thier fault. over hyped, over priced. i like mine but it really doesnt much use. when one has the option of psn over live its pretty obvious which one will get used. bluray movies do look and sound pretty tho.

  • joelgargan

    Posted Mar 20, 2009 3:59 am PT

    @ddashboy242

    Noone is laughing stupid loser.

    You are a goddamn loser. Get a life noone thinks you are funny for telling the end to KZ2 you stupid arse. I will glasgow kiss you bro.

  • mysteriojoe

    Posted Mar 19, 2009 7:56 pm PT

    Ps3 is great, Re5 sold 400,000 copies on the Ps3. 360 sold 440,000 copies. Very close in sales. Playstation 3 is catching up...

  • brendanhunt1

    Posted Mar 19, 2009 12:28 pm PT

    ps3 just needs better marketing, nearly every game i see on tv in the uk always comes up with an xbox

  • ChaosStar

    Posted Mar 19, 2009 11:42 am PT

    Firefox fanboys? It's a browser, god.

  • Boomarley

    Posted Mar 18, 2009 9:16 pm PT

    @JackHoleFace:

    Well done parodying annoying Firefox fanboys.

  • Tsunami_pt

    Posted Mar 18, 2009 9:15 am PT

    @ nvfigueiredo

    E um prazer ver outro tuga, que nao seja um "catraio", por aqui.

    Nice to meet you, m8!

  • nvfigueiredo

    Posted Mar 18, 2009 9:05 am PT

    Olá Tsunami,

    Nice to have another portuguese here.
    Regarding your comment, I fail to see your point.

    I've been playing videogames since I was 7, and I am now 33... So I believe my opinion, in the matter of experience, is also valid.

    Portugal is indeed a "Sony owned" country, and I jumped into the PS bandwagon. I could have bought a Xbox360, but the RROD argument was to strong for me. If I am to spend € 300 for a console (plus wireless controller, plus Xbox Live subscription) and another "hundreds" for games and accessories, I DEMAND quality.
    On top of that, all my friends were also buying or planning to buy a PS3 (except for 2 of them... who have both consoles).

    Still, I'm drifting. Question is, I don't think PS3 or Xbox360 are more or less hardcore. It's the games that make the difference, as allways. Killzone 2, MGS5, Warhawk, Resistance 2 ARE hardcore games, only available on the PS3. Just as Mass Effect or Gears of War are, to name a few on the Xbox360.
    Your point regarding multiplatform superiority is also weak, IMHO. There are multiplatform games better on the PS3, as there are some better on the Xbox360.

    Conclusion: both consoles have their merits. Both are as "hardcore" or casual as you make it (mind you, I love a drunk Singstar session and there's nothing like a Guitar Hero WT jam with some friends).

    Your other point: I too think Home was a waste of Sony's resources. As many other titles (Lair on top). But so were Too Human, You're in the movies, Viva Piñata, Halo Wars... Some bets payoff, others don't.

    To be honest, I even believe that the Xbox360 strongest cards are its appeal to... casual audiences: lower price (and the "hability" to run backup games... cof cof) and its large number of casual "cheap" downloadable games (including Catan and Uno).

    I wouldn't also trade my PS3 for a Xbox360. Hardcore gamer to hardcore gamer, I urge you not to miss Metal Gear Solid IV... I'm not even a big fan of the series, but I was amazed with it.
    Rest assured, I will buy a Xbox360 (or loan it from a friend), just to get my hands on Gears of War 1&2.

    Abraço,
    Nuno

  • ddashboy242

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 10:37 pm PT

    KillZone2!! Scolar Visari's Last Words: "The Madness Begins"
    KZ3 in the works!! woot woot

  • Tsunami_pt

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 7:05 pm PT

    @ Hvac0120:

    I'm 29, been playing games since I was 5, and I wouldn't trade my Xbox360 for a PS3 or Wii. I'd love to have them all, but I aint got the time and the money to play them all. And to be honest, I think you are not correct at your analisys. Let's consider my country (Portugal), where any Sony hardware is the king of sales, where the Wii and Xbox 360 together have less then 20% of the market. Here, all casual and softcore gamers buy PS3, while only the hardcore gamers play the 360. If you ask anyone what a PS is, ppl know. And most ppl look for a PS console when they want to buy a home console. I'd play Halo 3 over Killzone 2 any day (Yes, Killzone's graphics are amazing, but it's the gameplay that makes the game). Also, despite being superior on a technical lvl, the PS3 can't seem to achieve the performance level of the 360 (considering multiplatform games), as 360's graphs are, on most of the cases, better on the M$ console (you can check Eurogamer.net, as it has detailed analysis on games launched on both consoles, and 360's are, like 90% of the time, better on the technical issue).

    So, tbh, I believe that PS3 players "invented" that idea that the PS3 is for the hardcore gamer, because tbh, I don't see any real basis for that concept. Imo, if there is one console prefered by the hardcore gamers, that would be the Xbox 360. Also, concerning other news, how many of you think that Home is a shot in the foot by Sony? Because, imo, I think that it's a great waste of human resources and money. I mean, console gamers wanna turn on the console and play. What's the point of creating a virtual avatar to walk around a reality-like place? To stand in queue to play at virtual arcade machines? Meh...

    Yes, I'm a M$ fanboy (atm, at least). Used to be a PS one, but tbh, I think that Sony has made too many mistakes, while M$ and Nintendo have shown more inovation and respect for the gamers.

    My 2 cents... (I cant feel the PS fanboys negative reviews raining on this thread...)

  • maverick_76

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 6:49 pm PT

    I think the Sony console will end up like the XBOX last gen. It will be first in every technical category but second in games and installed base. Not too shabby, but disappointing because of the dominance of the PlayStation ever since it came out. I own one and love it, have friends that own a 360 and that is an excellent console as well. But i am glad I chose, in my mind, the better console.

  • Darth_Nater307

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 6:10 pm PT

    My goodness people! Stop buying "Wii Play"! Save your money and just get the Wii Remote.

  • Sins-of-Mosin

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 5:18 pm PT

    Sony should be happy if any game on their system breaks the top 10.

  • ssnake18

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 5:13 pm PT

    ps3 isnt crap...and even if it is, it still got blu-ray...
    i dont see the ps3 selling games that are multidisk...

    i wonder how many disks theyre gonna need for ff13?

  • JackHoleFace00

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 4:09 pm PT

    I can't imagine that with games like KZ 2 and SF IV, and with fully stocked shelves of Wii, that Feb could have been anything but positive (although the late-month release of KZ 2 could have an effect).

    On a different note: "[Wii had] the existence of few new, big February releases." That's right! No good games because the system is lousy and is 98% shovelware! C'mon, Wii fans, the fad is over! It's not too late to switch to the PS3 and save a real gaming machine! Price cut likely in April! Blu-Ray! Hard Drive! Free online with sweet games like MGS4, LBP, and KZ 2! Now, even if you buy a 360 I couldn't blame you because it also has good games! Please just go with what's right!

    Haha, gonna probably get a lot of thumbs down for that but oh well

  • WhiteSnake5000

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 3:33 pm PT

    Who cares... It's not like Sony will end up like Sega. What's the concern here? So what if the PS3 is the worst seller out of the three. It doesn't change the fact that it has incredible exclusives, a built in blu-ray player, and lots of developer support. That's enough to make the PS3 successful in my opinion.

  • kavadias1981

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 2:08 pm PT

    Who the hell says the PS3 is expensive?! I paid 289 quid for mine with 4 games: Resistance 2, LBP, Fallout 3 and... *sigh* LOST: The Game (which I sold for 13 quid). Then I bought: Mirrors Edge (15 quid), Bioshock (18 quid), GTA4 (18 quid), Dead Space (15 quid) and MGS4 (15 quid second hand). So so far I have spent 357 quid (deducting the 13 quid from selling LOST) on a PS3 with 7 excellent high scoring games. So again, who says the PS3 is expensive?!

  • zaphod_b

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 1:43 pm PT

    What I don't understand is, the Wii is number one in every market, but there are very few people arguing on here that it is the best system. How does number 2 make your system the best? I have all 3 and for the last 5 months have only powered up the PS3. Your mileage may vary. Good for you.

  • mariokart64fan posted Mar 17, 2009 1:20 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    mariokart64fan

    Posted Mar 17, 2009 1:20 pm PT (hide)

    greg thats a lie, you honestly think ps3 is the cheapest, ,
    the console is already the most expensive
    its controllers cost just as much as 360s if not more, its new releases cost the same as 360s and when i got my ps3 it was 599.99 if you call that cheap, then i dont know what world youl live in , because that is not cheap, the only positive thing that came out of that deal was bluray and bc with ps1 and 2 games, and kill zone 2, every other game makes me want to throw the thing away seriously, i dont like mgs series i gave it another go with mgs 3 to my suprise it looked and played like mgs1 on the ps1,

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