Analyst augurs flat Sept. game sales

By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpotPosted Oct 8, 2008 2:06 pm PT

Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich believes last month saw just 1 percent US industry growth; Force Unleashed pegged as top seller.

US retail software sales have been up significantly every month this year, but analysts have been warning for months that growth would be slowing toward the holidays. September poses the first big threat to that streak of year-over-year game sales bumps, as last year the month saw the launch of the highly anticipated and heavily hyped Xbox 360 blockbuster Halo 3.

According to Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich, this September's smattering of notable releases like Star Wars: The Force Unleashed and the Xbox 360 edition of Rock Band 2 may have filled the hole left by Halo 3, but just barely. In his monthly sales preview, Divnich predicted the industry tracking NPD Group's US retail sales figures for September will show a 1 percent bump in software sales.

"Instead of relying on just one major release, September succeeded on the backs of numerous releases that were able to, when combined, target all the major demographic segments," Divnich wrote. "Regardless of your genre or game style preference, September likely had a release for you."

Divnich projected that The Force Unleashed would dominate the sales chart for the month, with the console versions of the game taking up four of the top 10 spots and the Xbox 360 edition claiming the top slot. He expects the remaining spots to be split evenly between EA offerings (Madden NFL 09, Rock Band 2 and Mercenaries 2: World in Flames) and Nintendo's trio of chart mainstays (Wii Fit, Wii Play, and Mario Kart).

While Divnich said The Force Unleashed "was well executed across the board," he suggested that the game's review scores limited its potential sales to existing fans of the action genre and the Star Wars brand. He estimates combined Force Unleashed sales of more than 1.35 million in the US (it sold 1.5 million worldwide in its first week), but suggests average reviews of 85 percent or higher would have pushed the game to the 2 million mark. The various versions of Force Unleashed carry Metacritic review averages between 61 percent (on the DS) and 73 percent (for the Xbox 360).

As Divnich noted, "quality still plays a crucial role in driving sales."

On the hardware side, Divnich expects the Wii and DS to lead the sales charge once again, with the Xbox 360 receiving a significant bump from its recent price cut and post its best monthly sales for the year to date. As for the PS3, Divnich has it bringing up the rear, and urged Sony to consider a holiday price drop for the system, saying the $399 price point is "simply too steep to entice the casual and mainstream markets, regardless of how great Resistance 2 and Little Big Planet may be."

While the current state of the US economy may have families thinking twice about adding a PS3 to the entertainment center, Divnich expects the effect of the market's troubles to be muted in the gaming sector.

"As was the case with previous economic scares earlier in the year, we expect the current economic panic to play a minimal role in hindering video game sales," Divnich said. "One could even argue that during these tough times, the video game industry benefits as more consumers look for cheaper forms of entertainment as no other industry offers a better bang for your entertainment buck.

NPD is expected to release its September sales data on Thursday, October 16.

48 Comments

  • brian_13un

    Posted Oct 16, 2008 1:45 am PT

    NO a great depression is extremely possible with the simultaneous losses of big company even in london

  • Stonetowerghost

    Posted Oct 10, 2008 6:27 am PT

    a depression isn't possible these days.

  • diped

    Posted Oct 10, 2008 12:40 am PT

    ctg867, we weren't on the brink of a recession/possibly depression back in 2005.

    Of course depressions dont effect everyone (the intelligent people who aren't in great debt and dont have subprime loans(do you/your parents, you may want to ask you might be in trouble!)

    When your parents get laid off, or start making a lot less money and struggle to pay for mortgage and other bills, they won't have 400$ to spend on an entertainment system. If you were a parent, where would you spend your money in a depression, 400$ toward a console, or towards food and keeping your family living in a house?

    The thing is people today (the young ones) have never really experianced any great economic struggle, and if what people think might possibly happen comes true, they will hit in the face with the wall of reality, maybe you included.

    Of course things will continue to sell, but they will sell less, there will be less people being able to spend 400$ at one time on entertainment.

  • ctg867

    Posted Oct 9, 2008 5:40 pm PT

    $400 is too steep? Oh really? So that's why millions of people picked up a $400 360 Pro back in from 2005 up until the summer of 2007 right? That's why millions of people spent $450-$480 on and Elite since early 2007, and will continue to spend $400 until the price drops again.

    Putting aside just the consoles, look at all these music games. The games themselves are only $60, but the guitar bundles are up to $100, the band bundles are up to $200, and there is so much other crap they want you to buy to go along or replace those things. Or how about the hundreds people are spending on downloadable songs?

    Or how about Wii Fit, which cost anywhere from $80-$150 depending on the bundle people are trying to sell you. And guess what: people buy it. Lets not forget that's on top of a $250 console that also asks you to spend another $40 for each remote, $20 for each nunchuck, $30 for a microphone, and $20 for a classic controller which is required for many VC games and even for some retail Wii games to be played properly (Mario Kart, Super Smash Bros, Geometry Wars).

    Believe me, people have money, and will continue to buy PS3s. Don't expect a price drop until next year.

  • LindBergh2007

    Posted Oct 9, 2008 2:10 pm PT

    I except pretty dismal sales figures for gaming in the month of September with the economy taking a turn for the worse. For anyone to imply that the reccession will not affect the gaming market is absolutely foolish and irrelvant to believe that people will still take gaming over everything else.

    The stock market is continuing to dive and I don't see how it isn't affecting game sales. Do people really thing that economic woes aren't going to stop people from wanting to spend thier money on console gaming and hardware especially when economists are predicting this holiday season to be a dismal and dark period for retailers and electronics which in turn could ultimelty cause the entire U.S. game market to cave in and collapse?

    Rakuho, I couldn't agree with you more. These are the factors that are hurting the industry, if we continue to watch developers go under, console sales slump, and if the holiday season is a bad as they're are predicting to be we could see another crash and the year 2009 could be the year that we see fewer games released then ever.

  • ParisSun

    Posted Oct 9, 2008 11:11 am PT

    I'm saving my money for Fallout and Left 4 Dead. At $60.00 a pop many parents are not going to be buying their kids a bunch of games. I'll keep an eye on Dead Space, Fable 2 and Last Remnant but it will probably be next year before I play those games. It's not like thses games will be off the shelf a year from now.

  • Sendmn23

    Posted Oct 9, 2008 8:26 am PT

    Sony Sucks!!! it sucks!!! You can't compare this September to last September. I mean Halo 3? That was huge! HUGE!!! Hey a 1 pct increase is still an increase! Be happy its not a decrease!! sheeeesh!! Well until cows fly make mine X-box 360!!!

  • lightwarrior179

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 10:10 pm PT

    I think most of the family gamers will be looking more for "value for their money" compared to mindless spending on games in a time like this.
    No surprise that Force Unleashed sold an estimated 1.5 million copies just for the lone reason of being a Star Wars game.

  • nephili232

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 10:06 pm PT

    If this generation has taught me anything it's that price is the single most important factor. Forget exclusives, forget features, forget reliability of the hardware or quality of the software. Price. Casual purchasers and parents make up a huge portion of the market and the only thing they understand about game systems is price.

  • Pete5506

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 9:55 pm PT

    I got alot of games last month

  • CaptainCrazy

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 9:03 pm PT

    PS3 needs exclusives in a HUGE way. The only compelling reason to choose a PS3 over 360 at this point is to rid yourself of hardware problems you'll almost certainly have with MS's shoddy system.

  • Anthrax88

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 8:47 pm PT

    And this is why PS3 will never get the upper hand of Xbox 360.

    With titles like fable 2 and gears of war 2 coming out plus a cheaper console. PS3 don't stand a chance.

  • thesaxmaniac

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 8:44 pm PT

    SO UNFAIR that PC games aren't included. Spore probably sold 2 million copies.

  • surppo

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 8:07 pm PT

    sony is counting on the bluray market to pull it through Christmas they need a price drop or at least a rebate.

  • john_russel

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 6:58 pm PT

    sigh! Sony doesn't really get it! They don't have a title like Halo! Resistance and LBP are pretty much new IP's and have a big fanbase but not as big as Halo...They can't use the tactics of MS, they should go for a price cut! I've been wanting to buy a PS3 just because of Killzone 2...but its too expensive!

  • bropie

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 6:49 pm PT

    COD5 and GH world tour will help with this for sure.

  • lordmt

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 6:16 pm PT

    Thats going to change this month with the big games this month and next it will be like a 20% increase.

  • Connor24

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 6:09 pm PT

    less business, more video games.

  • Tandem_Toad

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 5:55 pm PT

    MS should see a larger increase in sales than Nintendo and Sony with the economy in bad shape. Since, the arcade version is now $199.

  • lamprey263

    Posted Oct 8, 2008 5:53 pm PT

    People are probably saving their money for all the highly anticipated games coming out in October and November. Besides, there weren't any big September releases except Force Unleashed, and that probably didn't sell as much as excepted because of the mediocre reviews... though they did port it every which way, that's gotta count for something from a commercial standpoint. Despite the reviews, maybe it would have sold better had not everyone got a chance to demo this awful game beforehand.

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