I don't see too much wrong with today's consoles, but I am open to continuing forward with tech also. This was written with a bigger focus on 360 since it has been out longer and is a better foundation for my list, so yes I like Halo but won't discredit other platforms because of my experience on 360.
10. Casual market - Microsoft and even Sony to a lesser extent have wanted a bigger percentage of the casual market Nintendo currently enjoys. Microsoft especially as seen in the last few E3 conferences they held, focusing on things like Lips ,You're In The Movies and NXE Avatars very heavily last year. This year they focused even more on the unveiling of Project Natal going as far as saying it's release will be treated like a console launch. After a spot on The Tonight Show and a round-table at the Tokyo Game Show,Project Natal is getting a lot of buzz and will hopefully expand the XBOX audience and game-play. Sony has always appealed to the casuals way more than Microsoft so I wasn't surprised to see them reveal a motion controller for PS3, but it's nonetheless impressive. With both companies going for similar demographics with these devices, I wonder if hardcore gamers could impatient about the extending of the life cycle with such a focus (presumably so) on casuals in the coming years. And if the focus of all next gen hardware is going to be more open to casuals they will have to be price under $350 at launch if they want to sell more.
9. WII - Nintendo has been in second or third-place before, so now that they are market leader one would think they won't risk losing that by releasing new hardware any time soon. However long-time fans of the Nintendo may remember they like to bring out a new a hand-held roughly a year or so before they do reveal a home console.I would think when the true successor to DS is revealed the console counterpart will be right around the corner. Rumors suggest a reveal next Tokyo Game Show for a DS2 are out there, if true I suspect a new console to be at least hinted at the E3 after in 2011. Now why I want it sooner is because I'm just so used to a 5-6 year cycle and WII is already lacking in key areas that I feel Nintendo won't address until the next go-round. My biggest problem isn't even the graphics, but the lacking WII online with no unified user-name to use instead of friend codes used for each game. A "WII2" could sway gamer who stayed away from WII because of it's limitations, plus it would be pretty affordable at launch. Anyway I think they could afford to go early with all the money made off WII, but who knows? They might let WII have a long happy life like PS2 before replacing it, although I think by then WII will be cheap enough to still attract new customers while they focus on the future. Even if they release earlier than expected the new console would benefit from a rejuvenated focus from third-parties. Imagine Modern Warfare 3 day and date on all 360/PS3/WII2, it's anybody's guess. I wouldn't mind Zelda HD, and honestly I think it's possible that the next zelda WII could be released on both WII and "WII2" since at this point the game is not even been revealed yet and wii is 3 years old. Nintendo's E3 2004 was a last push for Gamecube and a reveal of new consoles all in one (both hand-held and home,) could next E3 be like this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c68MTPAGz8c&feature=related
8.PS3 - Least to be replaced any-time soon I just wanna say that first, and I will add that when they do replace ps3 the next system won't be $500-600 unless they didn't learn their lesson. If the rumors of Sony's next machine being based off existing cell and blue-ray tech are true we might see a PS3.5 in coming years. If you have a ps3 you might think I'm crazy to suggest Sony should come out with a PS4 sooner but try to understand my reasoning. When they lost the majority of the Ps2 150 million user-base they lost the a lot of momentum and funding for PS3 games, I think. Some of games got pushed way back or canned to recuperate funds. So in year four of PS3 I finally get Gran Turismo, God of War My two most beloved Sony games. Hopefully with the way ps3 is selling Sony gets more money for development with their big franchise releases, so we don't only get one Team ICO games this GEN. In a few years I wouldn't Mind a seeing a PS4 that was basically PS3.5 especially if they can use the good publicity they have now right so the new console has a popular view from day 1, and since this would lessen the price of the console. A PS3.5 would be cheaper for Sony and truthfully they could get away with it because PS3 was over-engineered in the first place, maybe it'll be like WII>Gamecube and add versions 2.0 of their 3d and motion tech. Who knows? Just guessing, but regardless that does not mean PS3 will not continue to improve, not at all. I will use God Of War 2 as an example of how ps3 will live long but ultimately will not stop a new generation from starting. Is it possible at this point in any of the 3 consoles life-cycle that we know any of it swan song titles, I doubt it. If I had to pick now I'd say The Last Guardian because it's so far out ,but that's a long shot at best. The PS3 hardware was considerably scaled back to launch when it did and combined with being hard to develop for took away from early games. My point is this go look up resistance fall of man's 1st trailer when the game was called I8 ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRn4qM9ep2o&feature=related )or anything else from e3 2005 and you will see graphics the ps3 might never reach due to developments cost these days. ( http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezLe_dE-79M ). My gut tells me Sony will jump to next gen to keep up with Microsoft if they go first ,and if one jumps they all jump but Sony will go last almost for certain IMO. Back in the early PS3 days Sony wouldn't talk about the next-gen ,but everyday they make more and more on PS3 overall so you never know what the plan is for them.
One thing I hope I'm right on is that Sony will not price the "ps4" over $350.
7. Development cycles - This largely due to the economy , but also due to poor management of resources in some cases. A company as big as 2k or EA having low earnings in years without a Grand Theft Auto release or , yet at the same time publishers in a similar situation Have not put their AAA games on the WII. Many publishers simply have not even given the WII a fair shake with AAA software, and are sometimes "betting the farm" on 360/PS3. Most who started work from 360 launch have a routine schedule while others with bigger games struggle to get them out i na timely fashion. At some point though I wonder that the fact we have 1 GTA four years into this life cycle isn't telling enough? A lot of developers are taking so long to make these epic games this gen that if we get sequels they will be at the swan song stage. For a while I was scared that the DLC for GTA was replacing a real GTA game, but by the end of this gen developers might try what Rockstar did with huge DLC for later games they make.
6.High Definition - It's here to stay, but in what form? In the next few years we might hear word of the next wave of HD , eventually it makes since this will happen right? 2k and 2160p are already in development and seeing as barley any ps3 games are really 1080p and lots of 360 games upscale from 640p the hardware needed to go forward will show up sooner or later. Remember when they hyped up the "HD era" the first time? I could see them doing the same for a "HD 2.0" but that is a counter-argument to my list because right now any real "HD 2.0" is far, far off. Still I'd say 720p will be SD of the future and not be what hardcore gamers want in 2014. This is not my strongest reason, but since this gen HD cant be fully realised it is a valid need only new hardware fixes.
5.Game engines - These days we play lots of games with HD art and last gen reactions within them. Yes graphics are great but at what cost? The most impressive things I've seen this gen are mash up genres. The stuff we couldn't get on last gen, like Fallout 3's open-world/rpg's, Fuel's large open-world racing and the like.This brings up my disappointment with this generation , most of those fps+open-world type of things like Borderlands are cool , but not as cool as when PS2's new hardware gave us "new" genres like open 3d worlds like GTA 3. Am I looking for improvements in the wrong genres to and extent yes, but that my taste.
Again not my strongest point but if we did get more power more would be possible, right?
Time will tell, but we have all the power we need for the next couple years I say.
4 - Developers and Publishers - With game cost higher than ever and games taking longer to make one could make the point that these two things would prevent new hardware from being attractive. True ,but I thought the first few years of any gen was expensive and cost should go down at some point as people refined the process. Actually I would suspect any new 360 or ps3 to be a slight revision on tech, enabling developers to get exponentially more power for the budgets the use today. Three weak points in a row, but it wasn't easy to make this list
without some weaker points.
3 - E3!!!!! - E3 05 & 06 those were the last time E3 was it's old self IMO, and now with Sony and Microsoft releasing hardware next year we will get closer to E3 of old spectacle. Zelda WII 2 Gran Turismo 5 The Last Guardian Halo:Reach ETC, the only way get bigger than this next years E3 is to talk about the future successor to your console. If some one start giving away little hints the competition is likely to respond in the same matter, but this can take a year or two from where we are today. So it's a toss up on one hand we keep getting better stuff year by year, will we care for new hardware?
2 HALO 4 (Hey it's MY list so...) The 360 install base was built off three things Gears of War early third-party support and HALO 3's marketing campaign. Master Chief is Microsoft's Mario, and if anything would sell the next XBOX his continued story would or maybe Gears 3? Yeah I like HALO but all I'm saying is if Microsoft wants to make HALO "4" my bet is they would push it on new hardware. Not saying they would kill 360 like original XBOX to do it, 360 will co exist with the next XBOX longer. In 2010 360 's 5th birthday lineup of HALO:Reach and FABLE 3 and Natal launching will no doubt have the most rumors of a new box. 2010's lineup will sound like a swan song to to some fanboy's starting more "NEXTBOX" rumors(remember PS2 later years?). I would like to see a sequel to HALO 3 on new hard ware just to see what they come up with for multi-player.
If at GDC there's no talk announce Gears Of War 3 ,it might be on the next XBOX, EPIC already hinted at as much.
1 - Natal and the Sony Wand will not relaunch 360/ps3 to the extent the hype would have us believe only because it was not in the box from day 1, hence why why I think they are testing these devices for a or two year) or so before they put it in the next systems. Plus for Microsoft relaunching a five year old XBOX is a lot of work for questionable pay off (PSPGO) what if Natal doesn't take off. Plus the way the video reveal of natal started the way those 360 unveiling videos went and I thought for a sec they where showing a new console last E3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5xwXn77TPs or
This was just in response to that 1up article and lots of people's comment's about how they don't want new consoles till like 2015. If new hardware was on the way in a few years sand cost reasonably I would be game, what about you?