Ooooh, my first blog. Let's see how this goes. I think I'm going to try to do EVERY category. That's right, all twenty-four of them. So... shall we begin?
Best Motion Picture of the Year
What will win? - The Hurt Locker seems to be a near-lock at this point. It's gotten the support from the DGA and PGA as well as being the highest reviewed movie of all BP nominees. With nine nominations, it is tied with it's only competitor, Avatar. That is the only problem. The Hurt Locker made only $15~ million in the box office, which would be the lowest gross for a Best Picture winner since, uh, ever. Avatar, on the other hand, made... 1,985,000,000 more dollars. It is hard to deny the popularity and great reviews it has gotten. Avatar however, lacks acting nominations as well as the Screenplay nod (last BP winner to not get a Screenplay nomination was Titanic lolololol). Along with that, sci-fi buffs in the Academy may choose to place District 9 over Avatar. That could hurt its chances a little with more points going to District 9.
What do I want to win? - I would really like to see Up in the Air win, as it is my favorite movie of the year. But sadly, there is very little chance of that winning. It didn't get a nomination for Editing, which might not seem like a big deal, but that last BP winner to not get a nomination in that category was Ordinary People, all the way back in 1980. It probably has the 5th or 6th best chance at winning (the movie it might switch places with is Distrcit 9, which *did* get an Editing nod).
Possible upsets? - Inglourious Basterds has been picking up steam and I'd put it at #3 behind THL and Avatar. The eight nominations looks good, it has lots of technical nominations, and the biggest helpers are the Original Screenplay/Editing nod. However, basterds wasn't super praised by Europeans, and there are plenty of Europeans in the Academy who may place it lower on the vote. Precious got that Editing nom over Up in the Air so I would place it at 4th. Very slim chances to win as it seems to be over the hill since it first started getting buzz at Sundance, which was over a year ago... still better chances than UitA and D9 though.
Other Thoughts/Rants/Musings - Well, a lot of these movies have zero chance at winning. A Serious Man is going nowhere with just a Screenplay nod. An Education only has a Screenplay and Acting nod. Up obviously has no shot. And of course... The Blind Side. Where the **** did that come from? All TBS got was an Acting nomination. AND it knocked out Invictus which was considered a lock all year! When you look at the fringe movies trying to scramble in for the last spot, like A Serious Man, Crazy Heart, The Messenger, Star Trek, and The Blind Side, TBS has the least amount of nominations when disregarding the BP nod (well, it's actually tied with A Serious Man, but whatever)! The Messenger got Orig. Screenplay/Supp Actor (Orig. Screenplay really should have helped it get over TBS), Star Trek got loads of technical stuff, and Crazy Heart got three nice nominations, and I figured that on acting alone it could bully its way into the top ten. But NOPE. You got The Blind Side. Zero chance of winning. Ten nominations is a dumb idea.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Who will win? - Well it certainly seems like Jeff Bridges will win for his performance in Crazy Heart. He already got the SAG and GG which are the biggest precursors. Plus, he's been nominated four other times and the Academy loves to reward people for long, good careers like Bridges has had.
Who do I want to win? - Well, I've only seen two of the movies, so I guess I'm too knowledgeable on the subject, but I did prefer Clooney over Renner. He really seemed to be Ryan Bingham in Up in the Air, and Clooney is one of those Actors that I hear people criticize for "playing themselves". But I really thought he put on a great show. Probably my favorite performance of the year, even over FAU's beloved Sam Rockwell.
Possible upsets? - Clooney won a lot of critic circle awards, so I'd give him the second best chance of winning. Renner has THL to help him out a bit though. I don't see Firth or Freeman winning.
Other Thoughts/Rants/Musings? - If Invictus managed to not get pushed out of the way by The Blind Side, I'd say Freeman would have had a shot. Also, even though I haven't seen all of these movies, I am going to go ahead and say that Rockwell was snubbed.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Who will win? - Sandra Bullock. There is no doubt about it. Had The Blind Side not been nominated for BP, it would have been a close race (the only race among the four acting nominations, really).
Who do I want to win? - I have no idea! I've only seen Sidibe's performance in Precious which was good but I'm not sure if I'd call it "Oscar-worthy."
Possible upsets? - Meryl Streep was the only person with a chance other than Bullock and it has been squashed by TSB being a BP nominee. So...
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Helen Mirren wouldn't have won in a close race anyway since she just got this same award not too long ago. Mulligan has been praised a bunch for her performance and she has two Oscar-y movies coming out this year so she may get a chance very soon, as will Mirren, who is going to be getting a great role in The Tempest this year. Sidibe has lost lots of steam like most of the Precious crew has.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Who will win? - Christoph Waltz. Duh.
Who do I want to win? - I preferred Tucci to Waltz. I don't know if I want a crappy movie like The Lovely Bones to be awarded with anything though.
Possible upsets? - Christopher Plummer, who was getting a lot of hype earlier in the year. He's old as hell and probably won't have another chance for an Oscar, so the Academy might feel the need to give him one. That is highly, HIGHLY unlikely though.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Nice to see Damon and Woody get nominated. I like them. I'm sure Damon will get more buzz this year with Green Zone and Hereafter. That's really all I have to say about that.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Who will win? - Mo'Nique. She has been the favorite since Sundance, before the 2009 Oscar nominees were even announced.
Who do I want to win? - I enjoyed Vera Farmiga's performance quite a bit. She was basically a female Ryan Bingham. I preferred her to Kendrick, though I appear to be in the minority on that.
Possible upsets? - I would say one of the ladies from Up in the Air, but they might steal votes from each other. Mo'Nique has this locked up
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Maggie Gyllenhaal getting in was a bit of surprise. She knocked out Julianne Moore! I thought if anyone was going to sneak into this category, they would beat Penelope Cruz. Oh well. Moore is in Chloe, this year, which gives her a chance at being a Lead nominee in 2011. Also, I hope Cruz wears a revealing dress.
Best Achievement in Directing
Who will win? - All signs point to Kathryn Bigelow taking this one. The DGA win usually means with an Oscar win. Her ex-hubby is the biggest competition.
Who do I want to win? - Bigelow! Created loads of tension in numerous scenes and she also brought the best out of some very small-name actors.
Possible upsets? - Cameron is definitely the second most likely to win, but Tarantino may have a shot as well. And if that happens, expect Basterds to take BP as well.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Lee Daniels being nominated angers me. I really hope Cameron doesn't get the award. Avatar didn't have a load of suspense, the romance was shallow, and the acting left a lot to be desired.
Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Who will win? - Good question. The Hurt Locker easily could as it is the favorite to win BP. But they may choose to give the win to something more wordy, like Inglourious Basterds, or something imaginative like Up. I am guessing THL soley because of it being a BP favorite.
Who do I want to win? - I would like to see A Serious Man win. I don't see the Oscar going to the deepest screenplay though, especially since this is the only other nomination for the movie.
Possible upsets? - As I mentioned earlier, I think this will be a three-man race. Basterds and Up could easily win as well.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - The Coens will win next year for Adapted if they get True Grit out quick enough. Pixar also gets another chance for Original with Toy Story 3. The Messenger not getting a BP nomination is odd considered it got into this category. (500) Days of Summer not getting in is a bit of a disappointment. It had been a favorite to get nominated all year.
Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Published or Produced
Who will win? - Up in the Air seems to be the favorite right now.
Who do I want to win? - Up in the Air, of course! Fantastic characters and clever dialogue. Loved it.
Possible upsets? - Precious and District 9 pose the biggest threats but I don't think either will manage to win.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - An Education doesn't have enough momentum to get this. In the Loop was a fringe contender to be nominated so it is extremely unlikely to win as well. It was a big spoiler for Invictus.
Aaaaaaand I have been writing this for nearly an hour. 1,729 words. Sweet Jesus. I can edit this to put in the other nominations, right? I need a break. .... Edit: OKAY TIME FOR PART TWO.
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Who will win? - Up is the best reviewed animated film of the year and won the GG. Oh, and it's the only animated movie to get a BP nomination. So...
Who do I want to win? - I liked Coraline just a little more, but there is no way that's winning.
Possible upsets? - Fantastic Mr. Fox *could* win if there is a miracle of some sort. Kind of like at last year's BAFTAs when Slumdog won Best Film and then lost Best British Film to Man on Wire, even though Man on Wire wasn't nominated for Best Film. This is an extreme longshot, of course.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - The Secret of the Kells being nominated might be the most shocking nomination of the year. Ponyo, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, and Mary and Max were all much more widely seen and expected to be fighting for the last spot. Guess that just shows strong of a year it was for animtion. Hell, 2009 is probably THE BEST year for animation ever. Next year we can look forward to going back to three nominations. Toy Story 3 might have some strong competition with The Illusionist.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Who will win? - It's a close race between A Prophet and The White Ribbon. They both have loads of critical acclaim, but A Prophet has no other nominations, whereas The White Ribbon has a cinematography nod. Michael Haneke is a big-name foreign director and the Academy may decide to award him with something. So I guess I'll give the edge to The White Ribbon.
Who do I want to win? - I have no idea. I only saw The White Ribbon. :/
Possible upsets? - I really don't see anything other than those two winning. It'd be a big surprise if something else did.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I... don't think I have any.
Best Documentary, Feature
Who will win? - The Cove. It's the higest reviewed doc of the year and has been the favorite all year.
Who do I want to win? - Again, no idea. I only saw Food, Inc.
Possible upsets? - Food, Inc. is probably the second most high-profile doc, so I would assume it could get a lot of votes. Probably not enough to beat The Cove.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I wonder if Michael Moore is angry he didn't get nominated, or even be chosen as a finalist. Really quite surprising he didn't get nominated considering most people think the Academy is liberal.
Best Achievement in Cinematography
Who will win? - I'm not too sure about this one. I would give the slight edge to The Hurt Locker for being an action movie that doesn't utilize shaky cam. Avatar did have a lot of vast landscapes though. However, a lot of Avatar was just... shooting a green screen. I'm not sure if the Academy would go for that. The White Ribbon was nominated and that's a foreign movie, and those usually don't get a whole lot of love outside of that category. Maybe they like it enough to give it the Oscar?
Who do I want to win? - The White Ribbon was the most beautifully shot movie I saw this year. I might tortue children if it doesn't win.
Possible upsets? - I'm not really sure if there could be an upset as it is a pretty wide open race. Basterds could even win. I really doubt Harry Potter's chances though since it wasn't even expected to get a nomination.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I still don't get why Avatar was nominated. The camera work sucked. >_>
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Who will win? - I would say Giacchino's score for Up, as it won the GG. Avatar, composed by Horner, could win though.
Who do I want to win? - I've only heard Avatar's and Up's. Avatar's bothered me. Up's was very enjoyable.
Possible upsets? - I wouldn't be surprised if The Hurt Locker beat one of the big two contenders.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I haven't listened to Mansell's score for Moon, but everyone I know is flipping out about it not getting nom'd. He also got snubbed for The Fountain, apparently (never heard it either)? Poor guy.
Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Who will win? - Gonna with Crazy Heart's "The Weary Kind". It won the GG. So yeah.
Who do I want to win? - I haven't heard any of the songs hehe.
Possible upsets? - The two songs from The Princess and the Frog will take votes from each other. The Nine song isn't even the Nine song that everyone predicted being nominated (Cinema Italiano). I guess the other song... Faubourg 36... might win. Hey, FAU is in that title!
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Time for more Avatar bashing: I am glad "I See You" wasn't nominated.
Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Who will win? - Avatar...
Who do I want to win? - Avatar!
Possible upsets? - Lol.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I didn't think District 9's effects were very good. I would also like to point out that Transformers was not nominated and I find that amusing. They sure do hate Michael Bay.
Best Achievement in Makeup
Who will win? - Probably The Young Victoria.
Who do I want to win? - Someone not named "Star Trek".
Possible upsets? - Unfortunately, Star Trek might win.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I will be angry if Star Trek wins. Dumb movie. That's it.
Okay, break time again.... edit number two coming up.
Best Achievement in Art Direction
Who will win? - I'm going to go with Nine. It had big set pieces thanks to Rob Marshall and I think the Academy will try to find out some way to award Nine, which was a huge Oscar favorite when 2009 starterd.
What do I want to win? - I have only seen Avatar, so I can't really comment...
Possible upsets? - The Young Victora and The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus could snatch it up. I doubt Sherlock Holmes or Avatar will.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I thought Inglourious Basterds should have gotten a nomination. *shrug*
Best Achievement in Costume Design
Who will win? - This is tough to call since there are two period pieces as well a movie about Coco Chanel... I don't think the Academy will be that predictable and give it to Coco Before Chanel. Bright Star didn't get as many Oscar nominations as most thought it would, so I guess the Academy is disappointed in it. So I'm going with The Young Victoria.
What do I want to win? - I haven't seen any of these, so...
Possible upsets? - Any of the three I mentioned could easily take it.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Uh... nothing to add. :(
Best Achievement in Editing
Who will win? - The Hurt Locker. It has action and is the BP favorite. So I'm pretty sure it will win.
What do I want to win? - The Hurt Locker!
Possible upsets? - Inglourious Basterds or Avatar could take it. Both had a fair amount of action or tense scenes that required good editing and are the other top two BP nominees.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Precious was a big surprise, getting in over Up in the Air.
Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Who will win? - Avatar. Dinosaurs or monsters or aliens or whatever those are make lots of noises. And explosions are everywhere. The Academy likes that stuff.
What do I want to win? - Avatar, I guess.
Possible upsets? - The Hurt Locker, since last year's BP winner got this award.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Hmmm... I got nothin'.
Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Who will win? - Avatar, again.
What do I want to win? - Hmmm... Avatar had nice nouses.
Possible upsets? - The Hurt locker blah blah blah.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - Nope.
Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Who will win? - The Last Truck.
What do I want to win? - I'm gonna go ahead and file this category under "I don't care".
Possible upsets? - China's Unnatural Disaster, since it is also depressing as hell.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - The only stuff that will win is gonna be either depressing or uplifting. These are the only two that standout as being one of those, so... that is how I came upon this decision.
Best Short Film, Live Action
Who will win? - The New Tenants since it has famous people.
What do I want to win? - I also do not care what wins this.
Possible upsets? - Hell if I know.
Other thoughts/rants/musings? - I should try to find these on YouTube or something.