Wedbush's Michael Pachter expects last stretch of holiday season to remain true to 2009 form, Zelda: Spirit Tracks to be best-selling debut of the month.
The NPD Group won't release its December US game sales figures until Thursday, but Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter is expecting the research firm to leave a lump of coal in the industry's collective stocking. In a note to investors, Pachter predicted that the NPD Group's figures would show December gaming software sales down 12 percent year-over-year to $2.45 billion.
Pachter chalked up part of the decline to "a precipitous decline" of nearly 47 percent in the music genre alone. He also noted that December 2008 was a particularly strong month, with its 16 percent year-over-year growth making for a tough comparison.
As for specific games, Pachter predicted strong sales for Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 (2.1 million sold), New Super Mario Bros. Wii (2.5 million sold), Wii Sports Resort (1.7 million sold), and Wii Fit Plus (1.5 million sold). As for new releases, Pachter pegged Nintendo's The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks for the DS as the best-selling debut of the month, racking up an expected 700,000 copies sold.
On the hardware front, Pachter actually expects revenues to be up 5 percent, thanks to price cut-driven sales surges for the Wii and PlayStation 3. The analyst has the Wii selling 3.2 million systems for the month, up 49 percent year-over-year, while the PS3 is predicted to have sold 1.4 million, narrowly edging out the Xbox 360's 1.35 million.
"Xbox 360 sales have kept pace with PS3 sales since the price cuts, and we expect this to persist well into 2010, but this implies solid year-over-year growth for the PS3," Pachter said. "We expect another price cut for both systems sometime this year (around summer), but note that because its manufacturing costs are lower, Microsoft has the ability to lower the price as early as March or April."
At the very least, Pachter expects Microsoft to sweeten the deal of its $299 console, perhaps adding a 250GB hard drive into that configuration.
On the portable front, Pachter believes the PSP fared poorly, selling 650,000 units in December for a year-over-year decline of 36 percent. He also pegged DS system sales for December at 2.45 million, down 19 percent year-over-year.
"We believe Nintendo's DS biggest sales challenge will be its own high installed base (36 million in the US) and expect that December will mark the beginning of an overall decline in DS sales that will persist throughout 2010," Pachter said.
Despite the glum results, Pachter is optimistic for 2010. He said game sales would be down again in January, but a dynamite lineup of new releases would lift the industry into positive territory starting in February.
"We think that it is likely that sales will begin to grow in February, hit high single digits in March, and hit double-digit growth from April through October," Pachter said. "Once sales begin to grow sustainably, chatter of an end to the current console cycle will likely be stifled, and we expect investors to again grow interested in the video game publisher stocks."
For the entirety of 2010, Pachter is expecting software sales to be up 10 percent.
see i cant really say much for how right or wrong this will be, but it seems really hard to predict alot of these things. Nintendo's evergreen products will be a given. And the PS3 is due to steadily improve as it only can. But as my prediction.... I think here in Canada at least we will finally see a bundle for the PS3 Slim and i bet its before April. I can be totally wrong but if even one person in sony knows that people are holding off from this then maybe it will work.
To fanboys who are arguing about the sales of thier consoles :- at the end of the day it really doesnt matter what console has sold the most or not. Be true gamers and get both the xbox 360 and the PS3 because both have something the other console do not have and this includes videogames. Unless you guys get paid a ceartain percentage on every " insert console name" sold this is just useless.
@SalarianChemist "And you're talking about 5 and a half million versus 6 million where we'd like to be right now." How's that a claim they've sold that much? Seriously? They're saying THEY'D LIKE to be at that, but they're not. Also, not in any point did you prove that Microsoft is doing the thing that you're accusing Sony of doing, after all many sources including VG Chartz note that the X360 sales are at 37 millions, instead of Microsoft's claim of 39. Also, 25 million PS3s sold is just made up by you, because even GameSpot in one article said 27 have been sold overall in somewhere Q4 2009, keeping in mind that they get money from their work, I'd believe they have far more sources than VGChartz only to make sure the information they post here is valid and therefore making it obvious they'd have more knowledge than you in this. I'll ignore you from now on on this article, seeing that this is just endless arguing and leads nowhere. It's a word against anothers' in this case. You don't believe what I say, I don't believe what you say, so what's the point? *quits* Reply or not, I'll ignore you. Bye. Oh, and don't just say that I'd "agree" with you just because I'm quitting this. Saying something like that is as if you didn't want me to quit and therefore giving you some more attention. There's no point arguing with you as you're "always right" in your own mind if someone else disagrees he/she's terribly wrong in your opinion. That's enough for me to quit.
This is the most boring conversation I've EVER seen. PSN looks like it has more users because most PS3 owners have 2 or 3 accounts (one for every gamer in the family). We can prove that most of the PSN users are softcore by looking at MW2's sales. 360 sold like 6 million and PS3 sold 2 million. This essentially proves that either there are less people who have a PS3 or less people who play hardcore FPS.
@TevoxZi, You did in fact "miss" the information I was referring to in this video interview that I will post a hyperlink to one time, in agreement with the Gamespot TOU: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFIDsTsWJHw As a result I am now going to list the key times in the video interview: * 1:45 shows the chart making it clear that the PS3 had sold 1.4 Million units worldwide * 2:25 talks about how the PS3 had caused Sony to lose $1.9 Billion at its launch * 3:10 talks about how regardless of the "positive spins" Sony tries to put on the PS3, it is definitely a "disappointment" * 3:23 makes it clear that Sony is "a half million units short" of their sales goal. Note: Anyone who had been at the 2006 E3 knows that Sony had said their sales goal was 6 Million units by the spring of 2007. * 3:30 to 3:33 makes it clear that Sony claims to be at "five-and-a-half million" as compared to "six million, which is where we'd like to be." TevoxZi, I certainly hope this detail information "proves" to you that what Sony claims they have "sold" is very different than what others in the gaming industry consider "sold." The simple fact is that in the spring of 2007 Sony changed their corporate definition of the word "sold" to be synonymous with the word "produced." I explain this in detail in comments below. The bottom line is that this interview sets a Precedent that clearly shows that just because Sony "claims" a certain number has been "sold" definitely does not mean that is the number of units that have been shipped to retailers who have purchased the units. As I pointed out before 5.5 Million versus 1.4 Million is a difference of 4.1 Million; that is a huge gap. Sony currently claims the PS3 is at 31 Million units, but in reality it is much closer to 25 Million units. At "this" point in time we have no actual way of knowing, since Sony no longer defines the word "sold" the way that Nintendo and Microsoft do. What we do know is that whatever number Sony is saying is "sold" is several million units larger than the number of units that have actually been shipped to retailers who have purchased the units. Whenever "Worldwide" sales data is mentioned, it is like comparing apples to oranges if the PS3 is involved. This is why VG Chartz is not reliable, since it takes this information from "the manufacturer" into consideration. The fundamental problem is that for the last three years Sony has decided to define the word "sold" differently than Nintendo and Microsoft. NPD Sales data relates exclusively to units in North America based on the number of units shipped to retailers and wholesalers who purchased the units. NPD Sales are not dependent on corporate definitions from any individual manufacturer. Unfortunately, technology like NPD does not exist all over the world. As a result, companies can change their corporate definition of the word "sold" to make it seem like sales are higher than they actually are. So, TevoxZi, I will once again ask the question: Did the comment I made that includes a hyperlink to a video interview with Sony executive, Jack Tretton, "prove" to you that Sony was claiming they had "sold" 5.5 Million PS3 units, even though the data on the chart clearly displayed that Sony had actually sold only 1.4 Million units to retailers? I only want a "yes" or "no" answer. If you do not reply, I will consider that a "yes."
@gamer082009 not excuse...but preferable to me..i dunno other persons opinions.. and i don't have any intention to defend ps3,psn or anything..it's just a matter of opinion.. i have 360 also..so?? what are u trying to tell me actually in ur last msg?
It seems that the 360 is going to win this generation console war. Even with sony price cut people are still buying 360. Sony got of on the wrong foot by having there console be $200 more than closes competitor. The Wii is first party system, but nintendo has been that way for a while. No HD graphics means no big budget games our than first party games. It sold well at first but it is fading even though they sells are up for it. The Wii is more for the hardcore nintendo fans. This generation will be a reverse of the last console cycle. Sony won last previous cycle even though ps2 was not the most powerful system. And now xbox will this cycle.
*Sprays some troll-spray in the air and goes do something that gamers do.. in otherwords: PLAY some games*
@SalarianChemist It sure is funny how that video is almost 3 years old. Also, yeah, it said 1.4 million units, but where exactly did they actually CLAIM they had sold 5.5 million units? Tell me the timestamp. I could've possibly missed it. Right now, that doesn't qualify as proof as it doesn't show him saying that ANYWHERE on the video. Meaning, my answer to your question is: "No." P.S. It's HTTP, not HXXP. Gamespot doesn't auto-censor links.
@TevoxZi: I have one question for you: Did the comment I made below that includes a hyperlink to a video interview with Sony executive, Jack Tretton, "prove" to you that Sony was claiming they had "sold" 5.5 Million PS3 units, even though the data on the chart clearly displayed that Sony had actually sold only 1.4 Million units to retailers? I only want a "yes" or "no" answer. If you do not reply, I will consider that a "yes."
I'd be shocked if the PSP sold that many. Anyway, reading projections from ppl who get paid to make numbers up is a waste of time, see ya tomorrow when it counts!
@SalarianChemist The reason people aren't thumbing up your comments is because hardly anyone agrees with you that's what. Even now, you're the only person that thumbed up your own comment.
@Rudorlf... damnn well I guess u just happy to have a gaming sytem and borsh to eat "ZANGIEF" . ...For mother Russia damn you should move
@tdawg2594, I would like to officially thank you for taking the time to compliment me on my grammar and writing style. I really do appreciate compliments like that from fellow Gamespot gamers. And for the record, I would just like to state that although everyone out there may not type as fast or as accurate as I do, I understand what most people take the time to write. I also appreciate the time and effort that each of you puts into your messages, which is why I always carefully take the time to read what you have to say. I just wish more people would make sure to vote Thumbs Up for me when they agree with what I have written in order to cancel the results of a Chain Email that was sent out against me seeking negative Thumbs Down votes against me no matter what I write. I hope you have a nice day. Your friend, Salarian Chemist
@GlifeG Prove the numbers, otherwise it's irrelevant. If it makes your numbers right only because you say so, does this make this a fact then; My pencil is on the floor. No it doesn't, as it's still on my board. Surprising, eh? I can even take a picture of the pencil if you don't believe me. @SalarianChemist It sure is impossible for you to believe a game can be good without massive sales, eh? Well, if you honestly think that sales make the game superior to those with lower sales, you're not a real gamer then. Just because they didn't do how you would've liked them to do, doesn't make their choice any worse than yours. Learn to respect that not everyone cares about videogame sales when playing the games themselves.
@GlifeG, Killzone 2 experienced disappointing sales, as an article on Gamespot explained in detail. Gamespot pointed out that Killzone 2 was on the market for only three months and it was being outsold by games that had been on the market for 21 months. I personally could not believe my eyes when I saw that Gamespot had nominated games like Killzone 2 for Shooter of the Year, yet the two best-selling Shooters of the year--Modern Warfare 2 and Halo 3:ODST--were not even nominated. Something was wrong with that picture. It's easy to win a competition when you're the only one competing.
@SalarianChemist If it's something like "Because I say so". I'm not going to read it. *edit; Facepalm, you've posted the link to me 3 times by now, WHAT proof do you have that Microsoft doesn't do the same exact thing? After all, you're saying PS3 has sold only 25 million units, while GameSpot with a lot of sources once posted an article that the PS3 has sold 27 million units like half a year ago. Now, google is your friend.
@Tewoxzi, I am going to provide "proof" of what you ask. In compliance with the Gamespot TOU, here is a hyperlink to an interview with Sony executive, Jack Tretton: hxxp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFIDsTsWJHw In this interview you will see that Sony claims to have "sold" 5.5 Million units. As a result, sources like VG Chartz and other websites and magazines all wrote articles about Sony's announcement. However, this interview clearly showed what people in the industry had known all along -- that the PS3 had only sold 1.4 Million units to retailers. The reason for this difference is because Sony literally changed their corporate definition of what the word "sold" meant. It previously meant "shipped to retailers or wholesalers who had purchased the unit." But in spring of 2007 the definition was changed to "produced and placed into inventory." This is the reason why all 5.5 Million of PS3 consoles were classified as "sold" by Sony, even though 4.1 Million were unsold sitting in warehouse inventory. Please take a look at the hyperlink I provided above for "proof" of what I am saying. You will see a chart that shows only 1.4 Million people "owned" the PS3, yet Sony was claiming 5.5 Million were "sold." That's a big difference, and that same type of problem still exists with what Sony considers "sold." Oh, and would people please vote Thumbs Up for me. I get plenty of private messages from people who support me, but it would be nice if I saw more Thumbs Up votes on controversial matters like this. I want to officially state that there was a Chain Email sent out by several people last year in order to try and gather Thumbs Down votes against me, regardless of what I wrote. So, if you are reading this and you appreciate the time I spend trying to help other Gamespot members, please vote Thumbs Up for me.
@GlifeG So games with bigger sales are superior to those with lower sales? Yeah right. You're not getting any of the money, so why even discuss about it? Isn't it the most important thing that they get the money back they put in the development so that they can get more games. The only way money could affect on the gameplay, would be the budget, not what the game makes in money AFTER the release. If Killzone 2 was bad only due to it's sales, I doubt it would've won best competitive multiplayer & best shooter over the -very-well- sold Modern Warfare 2. I much prefer a very good game rather than a game with good sales due to it's known title.
Hey and by the way wtf ever happen to that so called HALO killer KILLZONE???? please what a joke it was a pretty game for a 20 million dollars.... but had poor sales port it to xbox360 please yeaaa
@GlifeG Says a guy who doesn't own a PS3 to defend one who doesn't own a PS3 either, yet still mocks it and pretends being unbiased both-console owner that actually has the time and money to playthrought both of the platform versions of games at the release date. And I surely don't know where you got your information from, but GTA4 has sold more than 2,6mil on PS3. Well, don't care anyways.
@rodorif, The "time" that a game was released simply doesn't matter. The bottom line is that Virtua Fighter 5 is available for both the Xbox 360 and the PS3, but the incredibly important "feature" of Online Play is only available in the Xbox 360 version. I agree with you that if Virtua Fighter 5 was released "now" it probably would include online play in the PS3 version, too, since more of the PS3 "potential" has been realized since the time it was released. But that means nothing to people interested in "games" at "this" point in time. The simple fact is that fans of Virtua Fighter are obviously going to be interested in the "feature" of Online Play. This is the main reason why Virtua Fighter 5 is so much more popular on the Xbox 360. I honestly think that the faster load times and slightly better graphics in the Xbox 360 are not the main reason for the superior sales. I think it is the "feature" of Online Play. With that in mind, I think that the term you classified as "features" definitely play a role in what people are interested in.
@SalarianChemist Get over yourself. First of all; he's not the only one that has heard racial remarks, there are tons on YouTube with X360 that complain about how many kids are on XBL for example. No, I'm not saying there aren't any on PSN, because there are, but it's obviously a bigger problem in XBL, due to the ammount of headsets on the network. "It is unfortunate that the PS3 does not come packed with a headset" /care, those costs 8 dollars as they're pretty much fully third party supported. It's unfortunate that the X360 doesn't come with Wi-Fi packed with as it's way more required as some people have Access Points in difficult locations to wire up with. It's indeed a better thing having a headset than not having it, but the same goes with the Wi-Fi. Not everyone has an AP close enough, but headset is a lot cheaper purchase and is not an essential to even half of the people except in team-work related games. And also, could you please make shorter messages, I doubt many of the people are even going to bother read everything you type.
@ElvesonnEcstacy: If the "only" think you "ever" hear when you play online are racial remarks and sexist remarks, I truly do feel bad for you. My suggestion to you would be that you file complaints against the people making those comments. As far as Adam Sessler from Channel G4 is concerned, he is in a position where he could tell the Gamer Tags of the people making comments to millions of people and make sure they get kicked off of whatever online service they are associated with. The bottom line is that the Xbox 360 comes packed with a headset so that you can chat online while playing. It is unfortunate that the PS3 does not come packed with a headset. This is the reason why virtually everyone on Xbox Live has the ability to chat while playing games like Call of Duty, Modern Warfare, Gears of War, and Halo. Like I pointed out before, this adds an incredible amount of strategic depth to these games because it helps you work together as a team. If "you" and certain "others" do not "personally" enjoy talking online while playing or "hearing what others have to say," then you do not have to use that feature. Just because your Xbox 360 comes packed with a headset does not mean you are forced to use it. Anyone with an Xbox 360 has the flexible "option" of using the headset or not using the headset. The problem with the Playstation 3 is that it does not come with a headset. This means that there are literally millions of gamers who would definitely enjoy talking online while playing and talking with others while playing, but they do not automatically have that option like they do with the Xbox 360. This ends up hurting the entire PS3 market in the end because the size and "scope" of the audience with the "option" of using a headset packed in with the unit is much smaller. Like Channel G4 pointed out, the simple fact is when it comes time to purchase a game like Modern Warfare 2 you often end up asking yourself which console has more friends and which console offers more people the option to talk online while playing if they want to. This is one of the main reasons why the Xbox 360 versions of games like Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 always end up selling so much better than their PS3 counterparts. For the record, if you know of people who are acting immature online I think you need to encourage others to file complaints. I have seen plenty of people kicked off of Xbox Live for making the types of comments you mentioned. There will always be immature people like that on any online gaming service. Thankfully, Xbox Live has an excellent service in place where people can be dealt with appropriately.
[quote="Rudorif"] @SalarianChemist My arse. Online features, yes, but accessories, still no (Old model PS3 can switch hard drives, and both old & new model could use any headset instead of getting the official ones. It's darn consumer-friendly, and it saves us $$$ XD.) If what you say is true, then VF5 can play online because at that time, the developers haven't see the potential of PSN yet. Now, most developers place online features in Xbox Live, WiiWare & PSN as standard. [/quote] @Rudorif You still can swap the HDD with the Slim without voiding warranty actually. :P Only the place you take the HDD away from is at the bottom instead of the side. Here's how: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sRkj89axOU&fmt=22 :)
HEY SONY BOYS STOP THE LIES XBOX 360 games sold~Halo 3 (8.1 million) Gears of War (5 million, Gears of War 2 (5 million) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (4.2 million) Grand Theft Auto IV (4.074 million PS3 games sold~Gran Turismo 5 Prologue (4.17 million) MotorStorm (3.31 million) Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (3 million shipped) Grand Theft Auto IV (2.659 million Uncharted: Drake's Fortune (2.6 million) These numbers dont lie xbox is selling more games sorry --go Halo Reach
@rudorif, Online features and accessories definitely play a role in the sales success enjoyed by a console. Virtua Fighter 5 is an excellent example. Virtua Fighter 5 is available for both the Xbox 360 and the PS3; however, only the Xbox 360 version of Virtua Fighter 5 allows you to play online. This online "feature" represents an absolutely huge part of the gameplay that is definitely important to many gamers.
Haha! Some of the guys here sounds really retared. But 'bout that Mic thingy, I could use my GH:WT mic on the ps3, and it worked fine :D Isn't that awesome?
Everyone bookmark this topic...cause when the numbers get released we all should come back to confirm what a moron Patcher truly is when it comes to his predictions.
fight! fight! fight! Only joking.... on topic, it's kinda obvious that most console sales were going to decline, what with a global recession and current console gens reaching almost saturation point. Obviously, there are a few that break that mould (PS3), but then the PS3 was released later and at a high price tag, so it was almost inevitable that many seasoned gamers would be playing catch up and buying it now, now that it's a much better price.
The DS has such a huge install base. And that's why it's not selling as well recently. Though DS is still outpacing the PSP. I think Nintendo should offer BETTER downloadables for the DSi. Then DSlite owners wouldn't mind the upgrade. But, as it stands, most of the DSiWare catalog sucks. If Nintendo would port some VC games (NES, SNES, Genisis) over to DSiWare, it'd do better. Many of those are really good games.
Playing Xbox One games on somebody else's console will also require a check-in every hour. Full Story
- Posted Jun 6, 2013 3:41 pm PT
Xbox boss Don Mattrick believes concerns over connectivity are overblown, recommends Xbox 360 for those without an Internet connection. Full Story
- Posted Jun 11, 2013 5:52 pm PT