Moore: 10 million Xbox 360s will sell in first 12 months

The fiery-mouthed Moore from Microsoft tossed another taunt toward the competition today. Using the visibility of the opening keynote address at this week's ELSPA Games Summit, Moore predicted that Xbox 360 sales would reach 10 million units before the end of the console's first 16 months at retail.

The BBC Online today is reporting that Moore, Xbox corporate VP of worldwide marketing and publishing, expects "first-mover advantage" to be one of the console's key ingredients for success.

That number seems not to have been concocted out of thin air. Corroborating that figure is a report published today from analysts at Kagan Research. Kagan sees the 360 selling 11 million units by 2007--a figure consistent with Moore's statement.

"The target of 10 million units gives tremendous momentum to a platform," Moore testified to the audience this morning. According to Microsoft, the 360 will be available to US gamers before the end of the year.

However, Kagan sees any first-mover advantage eventually succumbing to the PS3.

Further on a statement released today promoting the report, a Kagan analyst says: "We believe Sony PS3 will be the strongest seller of next-generation video game consoles. However, Microsoft's Xbox 360 will narrow the gap with Sony to come within 28 percent of the PS3 installed base--selling almost twice as many next-gen consoles as Nintendo Revolution by 2010."

Moore himself knows a little about how first-mover advantage can turn into a story with a very unhappy ending. The once-marketing boss (and then COO) of Sega of America saw firsthand the lead held by the Dreamcast--released some 13 months before the PlayStation 2--evaporate in the heat of PS2 sales.