Sign on Options
Theme:
To Dark

August US game sale slide predicted

Analysts disagree on depth of dip; Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter expects single-digit declines in US retail software sales as Pacific Crest's Evan Wilson projects 18% drop.

Given the industry's prolonged sales struggles this year, the question for analysts isn't, "Are you pessimistic?" It's, "Are you pessimistic enough?" Wedbush's Michael Pachter and Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson today released their August NPD Group sales expectations to investors, offering two divergent--but still dismal--outlooks on the game industry's performance for the month.

Madden reigned in August, but the NPD numbers could still be a cold shower for hopeful industry watchers.

Madden reigned in August, but the NPD numbers could still be a cold shower for hopeful industry watchers.

When the industry-tracking NPD Group releases its August retail sales figures on Thursday, Pachter believes the firm will find software sales were down 6 percent year-over-year to $445 million, with hardware revenues slipping about 3 percent to roughly $289 million. On the other hand, Wilson expects software sales to be down a whopping 18 percent to $385 million.

One of the main reasons for the expected decline on both fronts was the stellar August 2009 debut of Batman: Arkham Asylum. While Electronic Arts already touted a 5 percent bump in sales for Madden NFL 11--likely August's biggest release--Pachter believes that August of 2009's one-two punch of Batman: Arkham Asylum and Wii Sports Resort will prove more than last month's debuts of Mafia II and Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days can match. While Wilson also pointed to the month's release slate as a primary factor, he did say Mafia II should lead new release sales alongside Madden 11.

Other titles that Pachter singled out as notable performers for last month were Red Dead Redemption, NCAA Football 11, Super Mario Galaxy 2, and Wii Fit Plus. While Nintendo's latest evergreen Wii titles continue contributing to the industry's haul, Pachter said the system's overall software sales were "driving most of the decline" for August, down 30 percent in total.

"While August will likely be another down month, we expect a meaningful rebound in September (due to the release of Halo Reach and the Move controller) and we expect to see evidence of a sustainable rebound in the following months, as the game lineup in October and November is very strong," Pachter said. "We expect modest sales gains in each month to help restore confidence in the sector."

Wilson was less rosy about September's prospects. He acknowledged that the combination of Halo Reach, the Move controller, and Nintendo's recent DS price cuts makes the month "the best opportunity for growth since May," but also noted the industry faces a tough comparison versus September 2009. Halo: ODST sold very well last September, he noted, and the month saw multiple weeks' worth of sales for The Beatles: Rock Band and Guitar Hero 5. This year, there is no Rock Band release in September and Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock will launch at the very end of the month.

96 Comments

  • z50macdaddy

    Posted Sep 12, 2010 10:35 am GMT

    2 day left till halo reach

  • Mr_Bodywave

    Posted Sep 9, 2010 5:39 am GMT

    @seriousplayer_d--you know what I find over-rated? YOUR favorite games! It doesn't matter what you say it is, I will say that. The point is that it is just opinions.

  • seriousplayer_d

    Posted Sep 9, 2010 2:42 am GMT

    sorry giuys but i also find the Halo series overrated.

  • AverageGamer99

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 9:27 pm GMT

    I always wonder even if a Xbox720 or Ps4 came out, wouldn't the games from thier previous consoles prices stay right where they are since Ps2 games have basically nothing close to them, so they could sell them at thier same price still?

  • Gelugon_baat

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 9:22 pm GMT

    After having reality slap their faces left-and-right, I expect these analysts to be quite grim in their assessments.

    And in case you don't know (and I previously did not either, at least until a more well-versed-in-business person informed me), these analysts belong to stock brokerage firms. They are paid commissions by their clients to make "satisfactory" transactions between each other, in this case, likely between publishers and distributors (who are the ones at the near-end of the product supply chain).

    "Satisfactory" means that these transactions have to result in significant pay-off for their clients later, so brokerage firms are actually giving advice that is not exactly free of risk to their clients and themselves. Their clients could end up having paid commission for advice that turned out bad (thus their clients could go to their competitors for advice next time).

    As for income, they don't rely on salaries as much as they do on commissions. They can be quite poorly paid or not paid at all - especially if they have been dishing bad advice. I wouldn't perceive them as stinking rich by default in light of this.

  • stziggy

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 7:42 pm GMT

    I guess returning games to a $50 price point is out of the question.

  • damo320

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 6:12 pm GMT

    This Wilson character is clueless. He's comparing the ODST sales to Reach. Everyone knew ODST was not a fully fledged game like Reach. I guess knowing what you're talking about is not a requirement for being an analyst.

  • aliasghar96

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 4:32 pm GMT

    Cod black ops is outselling mw2 in preorders on both xbox and ps3. Halo reach outsold mw2 on 360 on preorders too. Good year but I m not going to buy cod black ops. In fact, I m not buying any shooter other than reach this year. Already have bfbc2.

  • XboxGuy1537

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 4:03 pm GMT

    @ T_Money420 Well put my friend. Well put.

  • XboxGuy1537

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 4:01 pm GMT

    Halo Reach will save September.

  • Mr_Bodywave

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 2:54 pm GMT

    @Knightarce---"decent games" is a matter of opinion. I grant you that Madden is decided US focused, but the others are better than just "money making clones". At least no more so than any other sequel.

    However--as for Madden--considering this News item is about NPD--which is a measure of US sales, I think Madden is a pretty important release for the month. August is often pretty slow because people know Madden is coming out and basically avoid it.

  • Knightarce

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 2:00 pm GMT

    @Mr_Bodywave ok I meant decent games, im not going to knock madden as I have never played it but as someone from outside the USA (England) I couldn't care less and would be extremely suprised if it sold more than 5-10k copies here. now on to kane and lynch 2 and mafia 2, these are just money making clones of games that came before them and not adding anything new in genres that are increasingly boring, and the cover and shoot mechanic is just thrown into these games without much thought, compare mafia to gears or SC:C.
    furthermore i doubt many people who use gamespot were excited about wii sports resort

  • jad206

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 1:06 pm GMT

    The last new game I bought was Borderlands back in October. Wait...did any new games come out after that?

  • brown_flame

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 12:05 pm GMT

    @uglypinkmoose

  • Quietpower09

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 10:57 am GMT

    Valkyria Chronicles 2 had saved me from August boredom.

  • Swavo69420

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 10:40 am GMT

    It's been slow since Red Dead...

    I've only bought NCAA and Madden since then and my next purchase will be Fallout: New Vegas which is another month+ away...

    Can't wait til November (GT5 and COD: BO) and 2011...

  • Gooshnads

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 10:26 am GMT

    Games like Red Dead didn't get enough publicity about how great the story was...

    SC2 is catered to a very specific market in which casual gamers usually won't want it because of the competitive history

    All in all, PS3 games don't get the proper recognition they should either.

  • advanracer

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 10:23 am GMT

    Every 3 years...game sales skyrocket...take for example the Gears of War franchise... they release a new game every 3 years.

  • fattass21

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 10:20 am GMT

    i think not enough good games have come out this year, thats why i think its declined. nothing to do with people not buying games. there just wasnt enough games that people wanted to buy this year. ill be as bold to say that, next year we will see a jump in games sales. because if you think about it, there is a hell load of games coming out next year. killzone, fable, gears, portal, next starcraft games, ace combat(i think XD), batman, cyrsis, and much more. and didnt valve also say they had some surprises in the mix? maybe ep3? ill say it again, ill be bold enough to say that it will increase again.

  • atopp399

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 10:11 am GMT

    Everybody must have been waiting for the Playstation Move to release...

  • donalbane

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 9:51 am GMT

    I didn't buy anything in August despite my plans to do so prior to playing the Mafia 2 demo. I got some DLC add ons for some existing games I had, and am currently enjoying Limbo, but other than that, I think this Summer really sucked for games overall. I purchased fewer games this past summer than any in recent memory.

  • zombiechopper

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 9:43 am GMT

    Nothing to do with the fact Aug was crap for games this year, except for a couple of exceptions.

  • starbright_2012

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 9:18 am GMT

    I'm sure Michael Pachter is a really intelligent, friendly and stand up kind of guy...but can we please stop hearing about him and his "predictions ?" This news is pretty irrelevant to us, the gaming community. We have eyes and ears too.

  • T_Money420

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 8:59 am GMT

    Sales are always lower in the summer because some ppl don't have their lives revolve around video games. I actually take the time to enjoy my summers since I live in Michigan, which means I don't spend all day everyday in my room full of halo posters eating potato chips while I run around in 1st person shooting things. Plus, holidays such as Christmas are always a factor to help selling games...
    So were they posting this hoping all the nerds that saw this go out and buy games to stimulate this? lmao!

  • lightwarrior179

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 8:56 am GMT

    The industry is simply facing a backlash from the lack of any of those high-selling,mass-appealing games like Rock Band or Guitar Hero.
    Not like we need more of them. We've had more than enough of them already.

  • Mr_Bodywave

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 8:21 am GMT

    @Knightarce--no big games? Madden, Kane & Lynch 2, Mafia 2. Last year was Batman: AA and wii sports resort. I think those count.

  • steveguttenberg

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 8:17 am GMT

    I blame those sinister used games.

  • Knightarce

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 7:46 am GMT

    August is the month where they don't release any big games because the industry feels people deserve to go outside for a bit and enjoy their real lives and get a bit of sunlight , bit of a fail in england tho as august's weather was crap

  • faceman4523

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 7:30 am GMT

    Did Starcraft 2 really flop? I thought it was selling amazing numbers the first week, although I didn't really follow it because I couldn't care less. I'm not really all that big on Blizzard charging people $180 for the 3 "parts" of Starcraft 2.

  • tu2pac

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 5:47 am GMT

    What games came out in Aug?

  • Mr_Bodywave

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 5:19 am GMT

    What amazes me is that news is always about how poorly the game sector is doing. That is not true. The fact is Wii (and DS lately) are doing poorly and that is dragging the rest down. xbox360 is up. PS3 is up. Both of them are up year over year. PS3 by large numbers. and their softwawre is up too. It is only Nintendo that is down. Wii is crashing and dragging the whole sector with it. Screw that--state the truth--that the Wii fad is crashing. Wii will be down 30% y/y for the year.

  • acasero44

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 4:43 am GMT

    well Starcraft 2 was a big flop no wonder
    The game failed at every level.

  • uglypinkmoose

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 4:29 am GMT

    @brown_flame thats a horrible argument considering how many people love generic crap "cough" COD ;D

  • Animatronic64

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 2:05 am GMT

    Analysts... Who pays these guys?

  • Pete5506

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 2:01 am GMT

    The start of fall is almost here, game sales are only going to go up

  • Seiki_sands

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 12:47 am GMT

    Looking at last year's September-end of year on consoles: Reach crushes ODST's sales. Gran Turismo 5 and NFS: HP2 Obliterate Forza's and NFS: Shift's sales. Black Ops and MoH combined should be able to match MW2. I don't see why Rock Band 3 & Guitar Hero 6 shouldn't do as well as Beatles and Guitar Hero 5. Donkey Kong Country, Epic Mickey, Kirby's Epic Yarn, Goldeneye and Sonic Colors combined should certainly match last year's NSMB Wii, Mario & Sonic: Winter Games, and A Boy and His Blob. And you would think Fable III, Little Big Planet 2, Castlevania: Lords of Shadow, Fallout: New Vegas, Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood, Enslaved, Vanquished, Force Unleashed 2, Kinect & Move can be a match for Borderlands, Assassin's Creed 2, Brutal Legend, Tekken 6 and Uncharted 2. This month might be lower and that month might be higher, but for the season the games are there, whether people can afford to buy them...

  • brown_flame

    Posted Sep 8, 2010 12:38 am GMT

    how is this a surprise ? the industry is losing its creativity and is mass producing generic titles. not to mention games that feel unfinished.

  • karloss01

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 11:54 pm GMT

    in other words: Analysts point out the obvious... again.

  • organbank

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 11:29 pm GMT

    Not a surprise considering the absolute crap that has been released this year. I think developers should flood the market with even more generic FPS games. That will solve the problem....

  • vicsrealms

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 11:10 pm GMT

    October and November should do pretty well. Fallout New Vegas is on my must buy. Fable 3, MOH, and the next COD are on my maybe list. Civ 5 comes out this month. Plus, multiple DLC's from Mass Effect 2, Borderlands, and Dragon Age. I a game a month isn't too bad.

  • hotdiddykong

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 10:54 pm GMT

    meh, dont care
    All i care about is getting the games i want to get

  • drokmore

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 10:39 pm GMT

    Why do they always worry about month to month sales. Theres some huge titles coming out that will sell like crazy.Gaming development takes some time and not every month is going to be a killer.

  • Lotus-Edge

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 10:27 pm GMT

    I think Reach will sale just as well, if not better, than ODST, The Beatles: Rock Band, and Guitar Hero 5....

  • Bungiehalo

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 10:20 pm GMT

    as far i remember, there is usually aren't much games release following trade shows like E3 and such. plus Fall always seems to be the most popular time to release games... or maybe its just games that I like... lol

  • Tarmac_Hunter

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 10:19 pm GMT

    August is traditionally a slow month anyway, so how is this news?

  • Wula_

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 9:52 pm GMT

    Everyone knows if you were a smart buyer you would have bought a ton of games at the beginning of July when everyone was doing specials. Now people are sitting down and enjoying all those games they bought back then. So why would they feel like they have to buy more now?

  • daman246 posted Sep 7, 2010 9:38 pm GMT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    daman246

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 9:38 pm GMT (hide)

    halo is an overhyped series the crap inst even that fun u gus tell me whats so good about halom halo 3 was trash

  • iiIsSueZ

    Posted Sep 7, 2010 8:48 pm GMT

    August sucked because nothing came out! Even I predicted that one.

Subscribe to GameSpot's YouTube Channel

Hot Stories

Newsmakers

Featured Stories

Submit News

Got tips? Send them in!