Starcraft II slipping into 2010?

Market Watch speculates Activision Blizzard's 14% stock slip is due to a soon-to-be announced bump for Blizzard's heavily anticipated sci-fi RTS.

Source: A report on the financial Web site Market Watch.

What we heard: With no end to the global recession in sight, many nervous publishers have been pushing their games out of the 2009 holiday season. One-time 2009 titles include Sega's Bayonetta, Ubisoft's Splinter Cell: Conviction and Red Steel 2, and Take-Two's Red Dead Redemption, Mafia II, and BioShock 2. The world's current top third-party publisher, Activision Blizzard, also recently postponed its high-profile new IP Singularity until the first quarter of next year.

Now, though, worries are spreading that Activision Blizzard may soon announce a much bigger schedule change. In particular, Market Watch is wondering if fears of a Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty delay are behind the publisher's 14 percent, 30-day stock slide. As evidence, it points to several analyst notes which raise the specter of the game slipping into 2010.

"While it is not inevitable that Starcraft II is delayed, the speculation is running rampant that this is the case," said Signal Hill's Todd Greenwald. Brean Murray's Jess Lubert got even more specific, saying, "The beta testing for Starcraft [II] hasn't started yet. If it starts in August and takes 5-6 months, then launching the game this year is next to impossible."

The official story: Shortly before last month's Electronic Entertainment Expo, Blizzard CEO Mike Morhaime said that he expected the first of the three Starcraft II installments to launch by year's end. However, he gave the typical Blizzard caveat that it would only ship when it was done.

Morhaime's words were echoed today by a Blizzard rep, who would only say the following: "Development on Starcraft II is progressing nicely, but as with all Blizzard games, we won't release it until we feel it will meet our high standards and the expectations of our players."

Bogus or not bogus?: With Blizzard remaining mum, GameSpot asked two top game analysts whether they thought Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty would be delayed. One believes it will, the other is less sure.

"Starcraft II will likely be delayed into Q1 or Q2 of next year," declared Jesse Divnich, director of analyst services at Electronic Entertainment Design and Research. "The rumors of a Starcraft II delay are rampant, very similar to the same rumors that existed with Splinter Cell. And like Splinter Cell, the parent publishing company is not going on the record to dismiss these rumors…probably for good reason."

As evidence of a delay, Divnich points to Activision's announcement last week that it will release its quarterly numbers the afternoon of Wednesday, August 5. "Pre-announcing the delay of Starcraft II without informing investors on how this may or may not affect the company's financial health is borderline illegal and in bad taste. With their quarterly call just around the corner, we can expect Activision to make a firm decision on whether or not Starcraft II will be hitting store shelves this holiday season." He pointed out how Take-Two Interactive announced BioShock 2's delay via a conference call.

Webush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter is less sure that Starcraft II has left 2009's orbit. "Nobody actually knows," he declared. "Blizzard quite likely made a flawless game, so the beta test is not going to be about discovering bugs in the software. It's all about balance of gameplay, making sure that the three races have equal powers, weapons, defenses, etc. Blizzard has probably gotten pretty close already (the friends and family beta is going on right now), but until they get 30,000 people playing 20 hours a day, it's going to be tough to know if everything is perfectly balanced. Will this take more than 4 months? Who knows."

The oft-quoted analyst does think that the massive media push behind another Activision Blizzard holiday release will act as an insurance policy. "Activision has taken steps to mitigate the possible delay by deciding to advertise the heck out of Modern Warfare 2," declared Pachter. "They hope to drive higher sales of the game this fall, partially or fully mitigating the loss of sales from a potential Starcraft II slip."

That said, one thing Pachter is absolutely confident of is that Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty will soar at retail. "I think Starcraft II will sell 4 million its first quarter, and 2 million in the three quarters thereafter," predicted the analyst. "I'd bet that 3/4 or more of these units are international."

281 Comments

  • Delston

    Posted Aug 11, 2009 6:09 am PT

    @placksheep

    I second your thoughts, I'm not going to buy 1/3 of a game for full price. I'm sure it'll be wonderful etc....whatever. Count me out. Diablo II was my game for a long time, however if D3 does the same thing, I'm out.

  • SkiNner_07

    Posted Aug 9, 2009 7:36 pm PT

    i really hope this is a good game, they just keep pushing it back......

  • placksheep

    Posted Aug 9, 2009 5:00 pm PT

    I stopped caring when I found out that I'd have to buy 3 separate games to play through all the campaigns.

  • CheeseDogs

    Posted Aug 8, 2009 7:28 pm PT

    At first, I thought it was a rumor that StarCraft would release 3 seperate games for 3 seperate campaigns..but it's actually true! They're really going to be getting a lot of $$$ off this...and once Diablo 3 hits...damn...

  • Sovereign_13

    Posted Aug 7, 2009 8:42 pm PT

    Blizzard still hasn't put the Lich King in Wrath of the Lich King. I think that combined 14 year break for Starcraft shows that they like to take their time.

  • kunfushun

    Posted Aug 7, 2009 9:37 am PT

    not happy jan!

    though it would be good since im in my final semester of uni.. sc2 prob would of fkd me up..

  • LordGath

    Posted Aug 6, 2009 3:37 pm PT

    Is anyone shocked? Blizzard have missed xmas with loads of games. It's like groundhog day on 1997 for starcraft. Going on form, I don't expect see SC2 till at least April 2010.

  • jjohn52

    Posted Aug 6, 2009 3:19 pm PT

    Let's see delayed for almost 3 yrs. $50 for each of 3 campaigns. They can delay it forever. Warhammer is playing on my rig now Thank You

  • thundaro

    Posted Aug 5, 2009 10:01 pm PT

    sigh, the grim reality of things in our gaming world is that most "gamers" buy games b/c of their name/pedigree, instead of knowledge and forethought aka research

    this means companies delaying games to avoid others (which is good business on their part) so we must wait b/c of our own "trust" in the franchise or company, which activision I have NONE left for and the absolute last game I will buy from them is Diablo 3 and that is only if I keep hearing good things about it

    I miss the ignorance of my youth when I owned a new game weekly, many of which i would NEVER buy now but such is life I guess

  • masterpinky2000

    Posted Aug 4, 2009 9:33 am PT

    @Challenger12389

    That definitely makes sense. In the case of Starcraft, of course, we're probably looking at less of an economic deliberation than a development decision. Blizzard is guaranteed mad bank as soon as they release the game, so they're just making it to their usual perfectionist standards.

    I am surprised that so many games are rushing into 1Q 2010. In the end, half of those games will probably push themselves into the summer of 2010 rather than releasing in Jan.-March because of the heightened competition and to capitalize on the summer season. So I wouldn't be surprised, for instance, to see Bioshock 2 be another summer release like its predecessor.

  • Challenger12389

    Posted Aug 2, 2009 8:11 am PT

    You know, with all these games pushing back to 2010 it might be the wiser move by a game publisher to release in 2009 regardless of the recession. Consider: all these games push back to early 2010 and all of the sudden there's a bunch of new games all out at the same time. Competition will go up and sales will go down, hurting everyone. Chances are, people will not buy all of these games at once but might buy 1 or 2 and wait awhile to buy the next one they want. I know there's a couple games here I'm interested in but if they release close to the same time, I won't buy them all but only 1 or 2 and then wait. Meanwhile, since Modern Warfare 2 is as of the moment the ONLY game coming out for Christmas, they stand to make a fortune due to a lack of competition. Of course, the other option here is that publishers will catch on and try to seperate themselves from the pack by pushing release dates back even more...

  • toadman682000

    Posted Aug 1, 2009 9:35 pm PT

    lmao Phazevariance

  • clqtte

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 7:14 pm PT

    May we can zoom in and out at this game?

  • LaiPt

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 4:35 pm PT

    Actually... as time progresses, I loose more and more interest in this game.
    I'm starting to be less of a strategy player now and more into racing games.

  • crowskull-666

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 12:37 pm PT

    as long as it's fun and well made, i don't care when blizzard releases it. unless i'm dead

  • Otoribashi

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 10:24 am PT

    Well said illmatic87...

  • Omega189

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 9:54 am PT

    As long as it is good...very good.

  • Phazevariance

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 8:17 am PT

    They should rename this game to Starcraft Forever.

  • noobst3R

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 3:36 am PT

    Sigh.... I can't keep waiting for it... well, i have to..

  • lightwarrior179

    Posted Jul 31, 2009 2:41 am PT

    Seems like all the big games everyone was looking forward in 2009 are suddenly moving towards 2010 leaving this year more or less barren..

  • illmatic87

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 9:30 pm PT

    oh dear.. Hey starcraft while you were away for 14 years i fell in love with Homeworld, Supreme Commander, Sins of a solar empire, Dawn of war & Tiberium sun... bit too late to come back in 2010 aint it? i may take you back into my arms... but it seems like you cut off your LAN.

  • oopomop

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 8:58 pm PT

    And ffs guys, once again i will say that the campaign is split into 3 games. Yes?
    Yes we all know that, that is why everyone is complaining. However, you could theoretically say that Command and Conquer is split into 8 or so games. Why? Well C&C builds up on itself. (from what i know.) Each of the SC2 games will feature a FULL LENGTH campaign mode, roughly 30 missions each game. That in total is 90 missions. Please tell me one, just one, other RTS game that has 90 missions.

    Just think of the first game as the real game, and the next 2 as expansions. And dont pull that price BS, because they have yet to state an actual price for the games. (and yes, they said they might be considering selling the 2 follow ups at 'expansion' price.)

  • oopomop

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 8:53 pm PT

    @gamer628, that is when they announced the game. Not when it was coming out. That is also when the Starcraft2 website was made.

  • pwnzord

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 8:01 pm PT

    6 million units? Yeah right. It's a popular game no doubt about it, but this isn't an international release, so you're looking at importing something that requires considerable more effort than going to your local store. Those Koreans are crazy for SC but I just don't think this many will ship. Hell I loved SC1 but I won't be purchasing a third of a game without LAN support, and I can't imagine I am the only consumer that has been miffed by their recent decisions.

  • playa42018

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 5:02 pm PT

    I wouldn't be surprised if it gets delayed. I just hope I get into the beta if it does!

  • gamer628

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 4:21 pm PT

    i am still amazed that the game has been push back again it was suppose to come out in October of 2007

  • lil_luz_10

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 4:06 pm PT

    Blizzard??? .Delay a game???....no way!!!...

  • NuKkU

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 4:04 pm PT

    wouldnt suprise me at all that means Diablo III will be hitting in 011 or 012

  • endocrine

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 3:22 pm PT

    Considering the open beta has not started yet, I would not be surprised if it was not released until mid 2010.

  • AlfaxD_Centauro

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 3:22 pm PT

    Well, finally we know SCII will be on Q1 or Q2 in the next year.

  • Humorguy_basic

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 3:13 pm PT

    @_Rye_ That's $50 for the FIRST CAMPAIGN! You'll need another $100 or so to get 'the game'!

  • enoslives7

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 2:53 pm PT

    those fatass lazy geeks at Blizzard are content to just milk WOW.... Blizzard moves slower than the government

  • _Rye_

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 2:12 pm PT

    Dont no just no its going to be alot, most awaited pc game of all time am sure it will be the best selling to date when its finally out wouldnt be surprised at all if it sold 10 million copies first 6 months

  • _Rye_

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 1:56 pm PT

    @Humor that's exactly what we want anyway we dont want it to be that much different cuz its already perfect, dont change whats not broken starcraft 2 is picking 4 years after the original to continue that story, new units, better graphics and am sure this will be one of the best games any of us has ever played am sure where going to see some stuff at upcoming blizzcon that will make us jump like little school girls with the next starcraft, more in depth story, graphics, new units, better battle net, cinematics what more can u ask for, and i highly doubt there all going to be full price $50 price but if it is u bet am paying it couldnt think of a better game to buy

  • Spikedjester

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 12:47 pm PT

    @Humorguy_basic

    I dont know if there is anything they can add either. But there is something they can take away... LAN. haha, good idea, go grab that old copy. Ill join ya.

  • raahsnavj

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 12:38 pm PT

    @oopomop - On your command and conquer note... exactly, that's why I don't bother with that either.

  • rydamusprime

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 12:35 pm PT

    you like saying "for the life of me" and "prettied up" a lot, eh? lol

  • Humorguy_basic

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 12:17 pm PT

    I've watched the gameplay video's and read the interviews and the previews and the 'hands on', etc and for the life of me, I cannot see how it is going to be that much more than a slightly prettied up original Starcraft.

    So please tell me, how can Starcraft II be going to be more 'balanced' than the original, that was considered balanced perfectly?!

    Screenshots and movies don't show it to be too different. If they had made it like a Total War game or something that would have been something to talk about, but just being able to spin the map around, because it's 3D doesn't strike me as worth $150 to get the same three campaigns.

    I am sure it'll be good, and I am sure there won't be a demo, so I hope all you pre-order and immediate buy guys tell us the truth if it's just a prettied up Starcraft One, because i'd rather dig out my original Starcraft than spend $150 for the same game just prettied up. and for the life of me, I don't know what significant thing they can add to Starcraft 2 outside of graphics. Because Starcraft One was so perfect. I feel like someone has to be the kid saying the King has no clothes, so it might as well be me.

  • bernoo

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 12:00 pm PT

    Blizzard delaying a game... Doesn't sound new to me... It's kinda like when Windows does a time estimate of how long large files are going to take to copy... Don't hold your breath waiting... It'll come when it comes...

  • Vasot

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 12:00 pm PT

    FAIL...

  • funkmugumbo

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 11:45 am PT

    If they delay it for quality that's fine by me, but they really need to start throwing more content onto their site instead of bottling it all up for blizzcon.

  • bahamut_au

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 11:44 am PT

    Congratulations, Thorsen. This news is only about a month old.

  • tommynj

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 11:21 am PT

    Thats because the people they have working on these games aren't as good as the ones that left. Almost 10 years since Starcraft and Diablo 2, houston we have a problem..

  • superdance14

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 11:13 am PT

    In other news, the sun is scheduled to set this evening.

  • Stryker521

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 11:05 am PT

    Yawn...it was never going to come out this year when they never bothered to give a better release date than "TBA 2009" since this time LAST YEAR.

  • Sins-of-Mosin

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 10:47 am PT

    Shoot, didn't even know it was coming out this year. Oh well, I'm still buying a new laptop to replace my old desktop. If I was buying it for games then I'd be one mad bored sucker.

  • xeridae

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 10:45 am PT

    @Plaidboy1 6 million over four quarters is about half the wow player base...

  • chappy_man

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 10:44 am PT

    i hope it comes out i really want to get my hands on it soon

  • xeridae

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 10:42 am PT

    For what it's worth.. Gamestop still has a reserve date for Novemebr 09.

    It also would not make any sense to delay the release of the game for the holiday season if it is already done. You would think they would want to make as much as possible in 09 to show that they have a commanding share of the market compared to everyone else even if their stock is slipping selling the game is the only way to bring it back up.

  • Plaidboy1

    Posted Jul 30, 2009 10:35 am PT

    Right now there are millions of Koreans crying from this news! I think the sales estimates they give are much lower than I would predict. I would guess that at least half of the WoW players will pick this up just because it's from Blizzard.

advertisement

Hot Stories

Newsmakers

Featured Stories

Submit News

Got tips? Send them in!

Related Game

Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty Boxshot
Starcraft II: Wings of Liberty

Game Stats

Full Game Details »Close

Related Games

Recent News

See All News »

Site Blogs