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Modern Warfare 2 to sell 11.1 million in two months - Analyst

Janco Partners' Mike Hickey expects Infinity Ward's upcoming shooter to be the best-selling game of 2009.

In March, Activision revealed that Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare had sold 12 million copies after nearly 17 months on the market. If one analyst is right, it might not take very long for Modern Warfare 2 to beat that mark.

In a note to investors today, Janco Partners' Mike Hickey predicted that Modern Warfare 2 would sell through to consumers 11.1 million copies in less than two months. He says the game can achieve that mark with the help of a ramped-up preorder campaign courtesy of Activision, the more-than-doubled size of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 installed bases since the release of the original Modern Warfare, and the series' massive fan base.

"On May 26 2009, Infinity Ward's community manager Robert Bowling 'fourzerotwo' commented that Call of Duty 4 has over 13 million unique users on Xbox 360," Hickey explained. "A particularly impressive number considering an estimated 30 percent of Xbox's installed base is not connected to Xbox Live. On January 8, 2009, Bowling estimated that there were over 4 million unique online users on the PS3 platform and over 10 million on the Xbox 360. We assume the PS3 unique users have now eclipsed 5 million based on Xbox 360 identified online user growth of 30 percent."

That puts Hickey's estimated online Call of Duty 4 gamers at 18 million. Assume that 30 percent of Call of Duty fans don't take their systems online, and Hickey believes that the potential market for Modern Warfare 2 consists of a whopping 25.7 million gamers.

Putting it bluntly, Hickey said, "We believe Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for [calendar year] '09."

Modern Warfare 2 will release on the PC, Xbox 360, and PS3 November 10. For more on the title, check out GameSpot's latest hands-on impressions.

420 Comments

  • TheRealUser101

    Posted Aug 8, 2011 3:47 am GMT

    Activision, being Modern Warfare 3's publisher, is showing the games multiplayer at the Call of Duty XP convention on September 2. All of the Modern Warfare 3 perks, weapons, maps will be shown there. MW3 is going to be great.

  • jetbruceli

    Posted Nov 4, 2009 12:59 am GMT

    You know MW2 has what it looks like the same engine as COD4, It just shows that great games today do not need to be Crysis like graphical to be great. I think Infinity Ward is just keeping what works and making a new experience at the same time. Awesome!

  • martinwebby

    Posted Nov 2, 2009 12:03 pm GMT

    No offense but ive watched many mw2 streams on justin.tv and it looks, i dunno. Not as good as Cod 4, will probably sell a hell of alot but slowly everyone will go back to cod 4 or halo.

  • Almighty-mints

    Posted Jul 8, 2009 10:02 pm GMT

    To be honest I don't really care about the SP that much. Of course I'll play it and beat it (maybe more than once for Veteran), but my focus is on the MP.

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Jun 18, 2009 4:13 pm GMT

    @ ptown58
    MW2 game of the year? not with God of war 3 and assassin's creed 2 coming out in the same month.

  • ptown58

    Posted Jun 18, 2009 11:06 am GMT

    COD MW2 = GOTY 09 , the new era of video games is here with short campaigns, same story, horrible pc ports I could keep going on and on but COD MW2 = GOTY 09.

  • FBIoh3

    Posted Jun 18, 2009 8:19 am GMT

    im with the guy who said that the analyst was paid off. once again, same game, different skins. im talking MP, not SP.

  • bourne2live

    Posted Jun 18, 2009 5:41 am GMT

    infinity ward will definately deserve it

  • nappan

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 7:24 pm GMT

    This guy is just projecting that the total number who purchased WaW represents a steady fanbase that will snap up MW2 at once. He may be right, but this is hardly amazing analysis.

  • metalkid9

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 4:41 pm GMT

    Maybe some people might disagree with me but imo I'd rather have them work on a long long campaign and some multiplayer maps and add more multiplayer later on as a DLC. I don't buy Modern Warfare games JUST because of their short campaigns. A game with a short campaign doesn't seem worth the $69.99 + tax (In Canada) imo

  • V-Nine

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 3:03 pm GMT

    ...I wonder will operation flashpoint stand a chance?..and COD4 was WT*! short and MW2 is reportedly going to be a lil bit shorter still...*rent this? I guess*.....

  • Valen_Ca

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 10:54 am GMT

    You have to keep it in perspective SkidRow18, the first Modern Warfare game was the same length and because of that the pacing was tight throughout the entire game and there was zero filler.

  • SkidRow18

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 8:38 am GMT

    seriously to me, a game that cost $60 and the campaign is not more than 6-10hrs is just unacceptable.....

  • DeathProofDelta

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 7:29 am GMT

    This looks so good im going to buy 2 copies! (That will help bump up their sales figures......HA!) COD 4 is awesome! COD World At War is awesome! I cant wait for this 1!!

  • mr_pink88

    Posted Jun 17, 2009 5:45 am GMT

    this game could easily sell 11 million units. COD is definitely one of the best FPS's right now and the infinity ward ones are always highly anticipated and always get a great response. even the treyarch ones arent bad but there not great

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 12:03 pm GMT

    @ console-deity
    go back to playing time crisis 2 feet from the TV if you can't play COD 4 well.

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 11:59 am GMT

    @ BenBenBen93
    activision never said that MW2 would sell 11 mil in two months, the analyst did.

  • Sechu

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 11:45 am GMT

    Looking at the growth of the install base of both platforms, it seems logic.

  • BenBenBen93

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 11:37 am GMT

    I now hate Eidos and Activison. Eidos thinks its games are the best games ever and are disappointing with its sales even if there good by other games standards. Whilst Activison is a franchise raping beast. Guitar hero has a game every second and COD again seems to be the same. and claiming there going to sell 11 mil in 2 months is arrogant, although it will probably happen, other companys would be happy to sell 1 million even 500,000 is respectable

  • ZooM-out

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 11:32 am GMT

    although, i don't think people will get rid of this game anyway

  • Half_Size

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 11:23 am GMT

    Fakenamelmao, the used ones were gotten rid of by people who didn't like it and is still a single unit so doesn't make it more.

  • Fakenamelmao

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 8:39 am GMT

    Does that 12million include the used copies sold from gamestop? I wouldnt think it would....so in reality it would be alot more than that. Cod4 FTW

  • LosDaddie

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 5:53 am GMT

    Makes sense to me. I've already pre-ordered MW2 for the great X360

  • TENGILL29

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 4:04 am GMT

    "Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare had sold 12 million copies"
    The reson for that is the multiplayers is great.
    Most of my friends and the people i play with online got this game only for multiplayer, thay havent even played the singel player campaign.

    So far i have not seen anything about multiplayer in the new game.
    So i would bring a shaker of salt to the estimation of outselling the original.
    Im hoping its as god if not better, but only time will tell.

  • MSG-Deathscythe

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 3:38 am GMT

    @console deity: 10 - 15 minutes without dying. that's impressive for little kids. trust me, duck hunt, you won't die at all.

  • Adrianberggreen

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 3:03 am GMT

    i think there is something missing in cod4 maybe they got it in this one...like making ur own characters and outfits

  • TB_Boiler

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 1:48 am GMT

    I´m buying a copy!

  • lamprey263

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 1:32 am GMT

    it'll be interesting to see if it does sell 11 million as quick as they claim, especially since World At War just finally sold about that much in the 7 months it has been out, and that game actually has more ports, including the PS2 and Wii

  • rgame1

    Posted Jun 16, 2009 1:07 am GMT

    Best selling game of 2009?



    They do know the first assassins creed sold 6 million and the second has 450 workers working on it? Don't forget all the other games that will also compete for cash.

    Mario, AC2, Splinter cell, Starcraft 2

    Honestly, if these stupid analysts were so good why on f'in earth could they not forecast the recession?

    I know why. Because they are stupid and paid for nothing. Remember when they said DS would fail hard? Or that PS3 will destroy 360?

    Now they have the publishers of MW2 in some sort of false hope. Activision, please don't cry if it doesn't sell XXX amount in X time frame.

  • ZedX-14Pilot

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 5:25 pm GMT

    I think I will hold out for the next Ghost Recon coming next year. The CoD games are alright, but short. I am definitely a fan of the Ghost Recon style of play over the run-&-gun style of the CoD series. This series lost me with the whole zombie thing in WaW. I like the WaW setting, but I think it wasn't executed as well as it could have been. I think their estimate is a bit high considering the EXCELLENT line-up this holiday season is going to have available. I know I don't have enough time to play all of the good stuff coming, and neither will YOU!

  • Kfoss

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 5:07 pm GMT

    NICE! well, 11.1M or not, my copy is Pre-Ordered now!!! and i eagerly await its arrival...

  • MandoWolf

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 5:05 pm GMT

    I bet they just jinxed themselves.

  • hannify

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 4:55 pm GMT

    What a simple life of a gaming analyst.

    "oh.. I predict Grand Theft Auto 6 is going to break sales records"

  • console-deity posted Jun 15, 2009 4:43 pm GMT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    console-deity

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 4:43 pm GMT (hide)

    @MSG-Deathscythe if I suck at FPSs then why in every other FPS I can last up 10 - 15 minutes without dieing? CoD4 was a huge let down, I knew the single player was short but the multiplayer was just plain lame, that and I hate ballistic weapons.

  • Sydwynder

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 4:40 pm GMT

    Thing is, lots of people will likely just keep playing COD4 and not buy this game on day one. I'm pumped about it but man is this holiday game season gonna be busy.

  • NICKKELANIUS posted Jun 15, 2009 4:12 pm GMT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    NICKKELANIUS

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 4:12 pm GMT (hide)

    E3 demo sucked

  • gearsow

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 4:04 pm GMT

    i dont think he is wrong

  • ja3e

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 3:09 pm GMT

    wow i've finally found a place where people DON'T like halo 3 as much as me

  • shadowkiller11

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 3:02 pm GMT

    i'm with you uberjannie

  • BiancaDK

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 2:16 pm GMT

    Well, hyping a product up to be something of epic proportions when it qualitatively speaking cannot deliver on those expectations can and will probably work. Just look at Killzone2. A self-fulfilling prophecy is any analysts wet dream.

  • MSG-Deathscythe

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 2:14 pm GMT

    @console-deity: die in 5 minutes? lol! all players who suk at fps games share your opinion. i think you should stick to playing duck hunt.

  • uberjannie

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 1:54 pm GMT

    Maybe then will reach that number after 6 months, but 2?
    Highly unlikely.
    I for one didnt play multiplayer in the first one that much.
    The singleplayer campaign was epic but way to short. I completed it in less than 6 hours on the second hardest difficulty. In other words, if I find out that this games singleplayer is less than 10 hours im not going to buy it until it gets in the bargain bin.

  • nicebai1224

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 1:53 pm GMT

    that really high estimate..but modern warfare 2 is going to be big..game of the year!..its a must have!

  • parrot_of_adun

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 1:42 pm GMT

    The only problem I can see with this is that the community will get even worse.

    At this point, COD4 MP is not really fun anymore because of how many people are playing. Its impossible not to wind up with at least a few screechy little kids, glitchers, or others who just take the fun out of it.

  • dukebd699

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 1:37 pm GMT

    Well Mr_Versipellis, if COD is so childish, I guess it's good that this isn't COD anymore then. It's just Modern Warfare 2

  • youngsexynerd

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 1:33 pm GMT

    too high of an estimate, way to high

  • wishiwasuber

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 12:51 pm GMT

    11 million in two months is imo a bit of a high estimate

  • IRTehHardMode

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 12:18 pm GMT

    Console Deity, clearly you were dying "randomly" because you've been spoiled by overshields, and overpowered abilities in a linear single player campaign which consists of no true objective except "Go here and kill stuff.".

    As far as your criticism for multiplayer, all I have to say is you sir...are an idiot. Next time you give such a blunt opinion at least back it up. If you believe the multiplayer in Call of Duty is one where "you can die in 5 seconds"...well quite frankly it's just because you suck.

  • cloudy14

    Posted Jun 15, 2009 11:55 am GMT

    COD games have the best online after MW so NO-ONE can crticise, and console-deity your obviously really bad then theres more skill in COD than HALO and ODST wil never sell as many as Halo 3.

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