Analyst predicts Big 3's E3 gameplan

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter explains what Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft need to get out of next month's trade show, speculates about new Twisted Metal, Starfox possibilities.

Earlier this week, Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich laid out his expectations for the 2009 Electronic Entertainment Expo, set to take place at the Los Angeles Convention Center June 1-4. Today it's Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter's turn. Pachter laid out a game plan for each of the big three, starting with Microsoft.

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter.

"Microsoft has to focus on exclusives," Pachter said. "They have Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, and I'm sure some undisclosed stuff up their sleeves. At the end of the day, they have to just keep plugging away and minding their business, growing the installed base and broadening the offering on Xbox Live."

He added that the deal to allow Netflix subscribers to stream movies directly to their Xbox 360s "worked exceedingly well." As a result, that might lead Microsoft to set the stage for customers to consider its console as a multimedia device as much as a simple game player.

As for Sony, Pachter addressed the rumors of a redesigned digital-distribution-focused PSP without a slot for the system's UMD discs, saying it would make a lot of sense.

"The PSP has been at a disadvantage because its disc drive was not only a power hog, but the UMD caused the device to be somewhat bulky," Pachter said. "Without a UMD or disc drive, they can make the device thinner, and the battery should last longer. They also should be able to apply some kind of digital rights management to limit piracy. They also are likely to spend some time showing off PSN, which appears to be working extremely well."

Pachter added that success stories from Sony's ancillary businesses (like movie downloads) are likely to be highlighted and guessed that gamers might be treated to a new version of Twisted Metal. However, one thing Pachter doesn't expect to see at the show is a price cut on the PlayStation 3. While he believes one is coming, Pachter said Sony is more likely to announce it later this year at the Tokyo Game Show.

Wrapping up with an assessment of Nintendo, Pachter said the Wii and DS maker needs to--and likely will--make an appeal to the core gaming audience.

"Last year, they focused on Wii Music, and this year, they have to focus on the hardcore," Pachter said. "It's been three years since the last Zelda game, and two years since Mario, so they have a lot to work with. Maybe something from the distant past, like Starfox or GoldenEye. Who knows? E3 is clearly the right venue for them to cater to the hardcore, as the entire hardcore fan base is paying attention."

Finally, Pachter came down alongside Divnich with his appraisal of the job done by the Entertainment Software Association in reorganizing the show.

"I think ESA is getting it right this year," Pachter said. "They are incredibly gracious, have really tried to be all-inclusive without allowing the show to be poisoned by 'outsiders.' [ESA president] Mike Gallagher really 'gets it' and has shown a lot of courage to address the issues of the small format he inherited and change back to something splashier in just two years on the job."

213 Comments

  • SQUALL20XX

    Posted Jun 9, 2009 11:34 am PT

    Very big

  • SSBFan12

    Posted Jun 7, 2009 8:35 am PT

    They are making so many prediction for E3.

  • asian_pride69

    Posted Jun 3, 2009 7:33 pm PT

    Man I just hope Nintendo won't disappoint next year...then again...they could...

  • PSFreak1

    Posted Jun 3, 2009 6:22 am PT

    predictions are always correct (not)

  • gmax Site moderator

    Posted Jun 2, 2009 8:24 am PT

    Predictions. Yay!

  • Gamer4Iife

    Posted Jun 1, 2009 4:33 pm PT

    I get the feeling Nintendo will do the exact opposite and repeat last year's mistake. Hopefully, they'll prove me wrong.

  • DarkNeoBahamut

    Posted Jun 1, 2009 2:33 pm PT

    I don't need predictions now

  • borninvincible

    Posted Jun 1, 2009 10:01 am PT

    i think some major stuff is going to be dropped this E3.

  • Strife88

    Posted Jun 1, 2009 9:32 am PT

    Last year for Nintendo was a little weak, hope they do announce a new Star Fox game.

  • dth_dlr

    Posted Jun 1, 2009 7:35 am PT

    i highly doubt Nintendo will capture the interest of hardcore fans. They failed to produce at last years E3 and i would be highly surprised if they don't do the same this year.

  • shinian

    Posted Jun 1, 2009 4:29 am PT

    We will have great fun laughing at those misshot predictions after the end of e3.

  • pakhair

    Posted May 31, 2009 3:02 am PT

    Good Predictions............

    I have better than U, As far as I think, Nintendo will have problems this year...............



    Check out My Pre E3 Blog

  • hhap52

    Posted May 29, 2009 4:43 pm PT

    new Starfox looks interesting

  • Zartan3000

    Posted May 29, 2009 3:47 pm PT

    PSP piracy...hot damn! First I've heard of it!

  • neoand12

    Posted May 27, 2009 11:26 pm PT

    With FPS now-a-days do we NEED Goldeneye again? no even more, Do we NEED to play goldeneye on a Wiimote? knowing it won't be in HD idk guys I hope they make something good this year cuz I can't take anymore Wii-don't give a crap games.

  • WizengamotX

    Posted May 27, 2009 8:51 pm PT

    I am surprised that one can support a life as an E3 "analyst." Regardless, some of the article caught my interest: "... and this year, they have to focus on the hardcore," Pachter said. "It's been three years since the last Zelda game, and two years since Mario, so they have a lot to work with. Maybe something from the distant past, like Starfox or GoldenEye. Who knows?"

  • Junior_AIN

    Posted May 27, 2009 8:13 pm PT

    He's right, Nintendo must be ashamed about last year's show. Nintendo should release a new F-Zero! If they don't at least say "F-Zero" in their show I'm gonna be pissed! Star Fox too, also 1080 and Wave Race (which should be out right at the Wii's release). It's also about time for a new Mario platformer for the DS, an improved NSMB including Yoshi and other good stuff, all with Super Mario World-oriented physics. A new Zelda is now mandatory, if they don't announce it I'm gonna be extremely pissed! This Goldeneye thing is daydreaming.

  • GuilSSJ

    Posted May 27, 2009 4:18 pm PT

    this E3 will be great I'm feeling it

  • hollow56771

    Posted May 27, 2009 1:20 pm PT

    How Long has it been since Conviction was announced!?!?!?

  • Iamsmee

    Posted May 20, 2009 9:23 pm PT

    @ enragedrenegade
    He was probably talking about the concept that is Goldeneye, which was a revolutionary FPS that was made for hardcores and sold exclusively on a Nintendo console.

  • MagicOneUp

    Posted May 20, 2009 3:39 am PT

    who's this wacko?! most of his infos are obvious, i'd expect more from someone in the 'know'. how about a glimse of the 'next' gen stuff like direct X-box 1080 or sony gone third party or ps3 will have better games, or the next Wii will be call Pii with mind control.

  • Glade_Gnarr

    Posted May 19, 2009 7:54 pm PT

    Sure, Pachter says all kinds of crap but a new StarFox would be awesome.
    But i mean the arwings and tanks goodness not the walking bs.

  • Razorbak1986

    Posted May 19, 2009 7:29 pm PT

    Umm - just a correction to JackHoleFace00 - Nintendo did retain the rights to Goldeneye along with Diddy Kong. So yes, it's possible. I'm not neccesarily saying this guy really knows what he's talking about, but yes, a new Goldeneye is possible.

  • CharlieFubar

    Posted May 19, 2009 5:42 pm PT

    i hope this guy doesnt make money at his job, as i crap out more intelligent garbage than that nonsence.

  • nappan

    Posted May 19, 2009 11:21 am PT

    @JackHoleFace00: Pachter would like to answer you, but the gerbil wheel in his head needs oiling. The squeakig of the metal-on-metal is keeping him up, and interfering with his MAGICAL FORESIGHT. lol... Pachter... what a putz.

  • JackHoleFace00

    Posted May 19, 2009 11:18 am PT

    "Goldeneye"? You mean the one that was made by Rare? And is now owned by Microsoft? Idiot. Maybe they'll release a new Battle Toads too! But I digress...
    Does this guy really get paid for his "analysis"? Example:
    '"Last year, they focused on Wii Music, and this year, they have to focus on the hardcore," Pachter said. "It's been three years since the last Zelda game, and two years since Mario, so they have a lot to work with.'

    Umm... yeah no s**t. How about telling us something we haven't already known for months?

  • enragedrenegade

    Posted May 19, 2009 11:02 am PT

    Again according to his prediction, there's still no mention of a PS3 price cut. Its about time that Sony realize that their console will suck even more without a price cut since they're facing increased competition from MS and Nintendo and I doubt that people will continue to buy the PS3 after seeing what Nintendo and MS has to offer them in the upcoming months and year.

  • Cabal23

    Posted May 19, 2009 9:31 am PT

    Increased prices for bandwidth are already a reality. Comcast and many others charge when you go beyond a certain capacity. The writing is on the wall. First they need to find a faster and cheaper way to provide content over the internet if that is going to work.

  • RetroGamer34233

    Posted May 19, 2009 8:56 am PT

    Digital distribution may sound nice on the surface, but keep in mind experts are saying the World Wide Web is just about filled up, and online gaming shares some of this space/bandwith. Also keep in mind if EVERYONE is streaming/downloading content for a video game, it's going to create quite a bit of lag in a game, no matter how much horsepower the servers have. Some ISPs are even beginning to charge customers extra for using excessive amounts of space. So if gaming moves primarily in that direction, also look for your Internet bill to increase.

  • nappan

    Posted May 19, 2009 8:48 am PT

    @Weddum: Apparantly all you need to get the job is a pic of you with the fakest smile (seriously, zoom the pic, the guy looks like he's having a prostate exam) and a gerbil on a wheel in your head instead of a brain. At least... that seems to work for Michael Pachter

  • Weddum

    Posted May 19, 2009 7:13 am PT

    I wish I got paid to state the obvious.

  • nappan

    Posted May 19, 2009 7:07 am PT

    This just in, Ms. Cleo predicts that Michael Pachter is even less effective than her fake-Jamaican ***! John Edwards was heard saying, "I mean, I just throw out common nonsense to a crowd of people, and then edit it... but this guy, he's some kind of sorceror!". Who to believe...

  • Cabal23

    Posted May 19, 2009 5:42 am PT

    It has already been stated ad naseum, there will be NO PS3 price drop at E3. Sony is already leaking money like a sieve. Lowering the price of an item they will take a loss on in a time frame where there aren't a whole heap of Sony games(or any Sony product for that matter) on the horizon to recover the loss of profits from cutting prices of systems doesn't make any financial sense. Although you may think more systems = more game sales, it wouldn't be enough to help. Sony does a whole lot more than supply you with a game system. Their product line is thousands of items. The PS3 is just ONE of those items. PS3 is really not a priority when the rest of the company can't seem to get it together. The PS3 is not their their flagship item despite what you may think, The price point on the rest of their products creates way more profits than a gaming machine. So no , no price drop.

  • Superzone

    Posted May 18, 2009 9:37 pm PT

    There better be a price drop for the PS3 or I'm gonna be pissed.

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted May 18, 2009 9:25 pm PT

    Patcher can eat a fat one.

  • psychojosh

    Posted May 18, 2009 9:11 pm PT

    F**K MICHAEL PACHTER.The instant I saw his name mentioned I just closed the window, he's the king of stupidity and misinformation.

  • nappan

    Posted May 18, 2009 8:16 pm PT

    Ahh Pachter, gaming's own Nostradumb***. Either he's so wrong it's hilarious, or he's busy pointing out the painfully obvious. What next? Does he saw a lady in half or just drink a whiskey sour and cry into his ledgers for a while?

  • thenephariouson

    Posted May 18, 2009 12:29 pm PT

    I just hope 2009 is a return to form for E3.

  • Cabal23

    Posted May 18, 2009 11:59 am PT

    @minimario

    The "outsiders" like Paris Hilton and all the Hollyweird A list ruined E3. That is why they are reeling it back in. It started being about who was there and not what was being shown. It is not a big party but a trade show. Trade shows traditionally have a past of parties after the show. But E3 got waaay out of control. Companies like Blizzard, Sierra, Altus, NCsoft,Activison, and Vivendi don't feel it is as important as the gamers do. Save the money on "booth babes" and invest it in games. We will get great games with or without e3.

  • -ColinR-

    Posted May 18, 2009 11:45 am PT

    I want a new PSP from Sony. Hardcore games from Nintendo and maybe even Goldeneye and the Banjo Kazoies for VC. I wonder what Micro$oft will announce?

  • lightwarrior179

    Posted May 18, 2009 10:27 am PT

    It might not be a bad idea for Nintendo to bring up some remakes of the older N64 titles like Starfox,GoldenEye (doubt that since Rare has gone with MS).
    Looking forward to the E3 though no matter what Pachter says.

  • will952

    Posted May 18, 2009 10:25 am PT

    I hope they announce a new PSP.

  • XboxGuyxx

    Posted May 18, 2009 9:35 am PT

    Keep in mind this is the same guy who said for the past two years it would be the year the PS3 outsold the 360, didn't happen. I remember reading alot more from this guy that was wrong that I can't remember off the top of my head. He doesn't know what he's talking about, search his name on gamespot and see how much he gets right.

  • nappan

    Posted May 18, 2009 6:59 am PT

    @newb16: Given that, MS will insist on Live, or keep it in limbo. MS can afford that, Nintendo's only income stream is gaming, and right now they need more good games or the business of a few months only, could become a trend.

  • Aletunda

    Posted May 18, 2009 6:41 am PT

    E3 should be good, gaming is becoming increasingly popular, as there where when tv's were introduced, first there was 1 in the living room, then it increased to each bedroom etc, same with computers, and now with home entertainment, with xbox and ps3 utilizing DVD and Blu-ray. hopefully the lineup for next year wont be as lousy as the 50 june releases heading our way. looking at Fuel and ghostbusters

  • nappan

    Posted May 18, 2009 6:34 am PT

    Changed up the pic... now PAchter doesn't look like a John Edwards wannabe.... he looks like he's getting a mugshot and a prostate exam at the same time. As to his accuracy... even a broken clock is right twice a day. Morgan-Wedbush needs to fix this broken clock with a hammer, and let Divnich do the prognosticating... HIS crystal ball seems to have the right "wavelenth" lol.

    I'm sick of analysts... does it show?

  • Calverz

    Posted May 18, 2009 6:17 am PT

    People who keep saying goldeneye for virtual console are idiots. It makes more sense for it to go to XBLA because they would add online multiplayer. VC would just port it. BORING!

  • deivis21

    Posted May 18, 2009 5:50 am PT

    I want see Halo 3 ODST game play

  • Mr_Fujiv1

    Posted May 18, 2009 5:31 am PT

    i have all the games that are going to be shown at E3 09 on my profile

  • endocrine

    Posted May 18, 2009 1:28 am PT

    I owuld love Pachter's job. Saying things everyone already knows and getting paid for it.

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