Expect Wii HD 'upgrade' in '10, no new consoles until '13 - Analyst

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter tells investors to expect a high-definition version of Nintendo's console next year, but believes publisher investment will put off next hardware generation.

Although Sony's PlayStation 2 is holding up remarkably well nine years on, game-console life cycles traditionally last around four to five years. However, if one of the leading US game-industry analysts is to be believed, the current crop of consoles won't be succeeded as soon as their forbearers.

The Pachter Speaks.

Although the Xbox 360 was released in 2005 and the Wii and PlayStation 3 arrived in 2006, Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter said that we shouldn't expect truly new consoles in 2010 or 2011. "We do not expect the 'next' generation to begin before 2013, if at all," he said. The latter part of his comment may be in reference to new technologies that may disrupt the console model, such as the OnLive cloud-computing game network revealed at this year's Game Developers Conference.

"We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle," Pachter continued.

"We therefore think it is likely that the 'next' generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6-10 percent for another five years. Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years."

One thing Pachter does expect next year, though, is "the long-rumored high-definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology." Last year, similar rumors circulated about a HD Wii, but those pegged the device as arriving in 2011.

447 Comments

  • WALLEYE1199

    Posted Nov 16, 2009 2:34 pm PT

    I like how they're making a Wii HD, but they should of made the Wii HD in the first place (don't hate on me, I own a Wii, it's my primary consule, ps2 second)

  • Ted_Zanarukando

    Posted Oct 30, 2009 10:16 pm PT

    Nintendo should kick off the eighth console generation, while Sony would conclude it.

  • Gio1766

    Posted Jun 4, 2009 6:33 pm PT

    The new Black Wii Bundle is just as good as a new HD Wii,So I say that makes up for it.Sorry no new HD Wii next year.

  • Gio1766

    Posted Jun 3, 2009 6:55 pm PT

    There is no need for A new HD Wii. If Nintendo could release a Firmware update to add 720p capablity,like Microsoft did with XBOX 360 adding full 1080p support some time ago. DVD,and CD Playback would be nice to.

  • revofanboy2005

    Posted Jun 2, 2009 7:38 am PT

    If this happens, I'll Finally have a reason to buy a Wii. I don't care what anyone says, playing a game in HD is an awesome experince. An HD capable console is what they should have realeased in the first place. Somebody at nintendo should have had a V8.......

  • Mr_Wii_99

    Posted May 25, 2009 4:32 pm PT

    Nintendo does need some good graphics to go with the wii's amazing gameplay. Reason why: Companies that make good games for only the PS3 and Xbox 360 can make games for the wii to attract hard-core gamers. More memory storage for games, wii ware games, channels, and virtual console. Creates many new features like Blu- Ray.

  • Gio1766

    Posted May 22, 2009 7:14 am PT

    Wii 2 should include
    1x HDMI
    3x USB 2.0
    DVD/CD Player
    1080i Capability
    Better Graphics

  • gobbo00

    Posted May 6, 2009 8:27 pm PT

    I agree with this but still don't like it, I realy can't see console games looking much better than they do now. And I will personally begin to get disinfrancised with games on the whole.

    Before just as I began to feal this way new consoles came around. And the truth of the matter is I am begining to feal this way now. With the exeption of maybe a few key titles that push boundries on more than a tecnical level, Mass effect & Bioshock & Dead Space for example. Everything from FPS (Call of Duty games takes the crown) Racing games look & play just like everything else on the market, and as there is hardly any boundries being pushed from a inovative perspective. And no new hardware comming any real time soon to push the tecnical side to woo me back in, I can see myself turing off games for the most part for the foreseable future.

  • agturboninja

    Posted May 6, 2009 2:00 pm PT

    In the future, consoles are becoming more like PC's, and PC's are becoming must have internet connection to play any game.

  • 2fistsintheair

    Posted May 6, 2009 1:09 pm PT

    @ guitarshank007

    "I own my Wii for the virtual console. Old school gaming is where it is. I'm tired of seeing the same old first person warfare games coming out on the PS3 and 360 that change nothing but the story and graphics between any one of them."

    I like old school games too, but isn't what you're saying of new FPS exactly what side-scrolling and beat 'em ups were in the 80's and early 90's? Pretty much the same game with different graphics and story? No offense to anybody, but I think nostalgia can play too big a part in people's regard for the old school days.

    And I think Pachter has a lot of valid points. I don't understand why people think he's being a douche by pointing out a lot of truths. The current generation systems are massively expensive to develop for and hasn't paid for itself yet. With the way companies are getting torn apart by this recession it makes it virtually impossible to invest in the next-gen.

  • Pipluplikeslink

    Posted May 6, 2009 12:06 pm PT

    O MAN i already have a normal wii (sad face)

  • nappan

    Posted May 6, 2009 3:53 am PT

    An admin should delete the comment that I'm writing right now, and lock the thread with FloodOne's last post as the tagline. What more needs to be said after all? Pachter... total douche.

  • FloodOne

    Posted May 5, 2009 7:00 pm PT

    Pachter is an idiot, disregard everything this douche says

  • gamer082009

    Posted May 5, 2009 5:46 pm PT

    Haven't gotten a Wii yet just because it doesn't take advantage of HD technology. I would love to see Mario in HD you know. I love Nintendo, but in order to get us hardcore gamers you need to bring out a Wii that is HD capable.

  • killer336

    Posted May 5, 2009 11:28 am PT

    @uberjannie
    I did not add the comma between true and graphocs. It was supposed to say: True, graphics are important but it is ultimately how well the game interacts with the user. I think pretty much everyone gets that idea

  • thenephariouson

    Posted May 5, 2009 11:04 am PT

    @nappan,

    Nice : )

  • brendanhunt1

    Posted May 5, 2009 10:54 am PT

    graphics are important, but gameplay is more important

  • snarple_basic

    Posted May 5, 2009 9:47 am PT

    Well for Nintendo this would be creating a Next Gen system!!! There a generation off and for them to add this to there current system it would be more then a revise of a last generation system it would be creating a whole new system for them. So in fact him saying all Next Generation systems will come out in 2013 isn't correct and he contricts himself with a HD-Wii!!!

  • Will47

    Posted May 5, 2009 9:32 am PT

    @CaptainCrazy - no kidding, it drives me insane everytime someone says "graphics don't matter" becuase they do. Don't get me wrong, I still play very old games (arcade and old FPS alike) but when I buy a new console and drop some big bucks on it...I want up to date stuff. The wii may boast "innovation" but it's going to need more then that. Let's just hope this "HD Wii" fix's that.

  • raahsnavj

    Posted May 5, 2009 9:14 am PT

    @nappan - I completely agree... unfortunately creating a gaming network of 'dumb terminals' is the only way they can 'find' to elimate piracy. So they will just keep attempting it and we'll have to keep hearing about it...

  • nappan

    Posted May 5, 2009 8:50 am PT

    @raahsnavj: Expect OnLive to never reach consumers, or blow up in its developer's faces.

    @CaptainCrazy: Agreed. I just played some God of War II on my PS3 and it looked better, on a 46" hdtv than most Wii games do on the same screen. That... is wrong. That said, so is releasing a new Wii so soon... they need to focus on stunning gameplay, and cut out the shovelware and just treat this like a fundraiser for the next gen.

    Am I the only one who thinks that an "analyst" with a track-record like Pachter shouldn't be taken seriously? I mean, yes, I do believe that a new gen of consoles is at least 2013+... but... the guy is guessing! Calling it in an educated guess just spits on diplomas everywhere...WBS needs to hire someone who is ocassionally RIGHT... not a human bobblehead.

  • CaptainCrazy

    Posted May 5, 2009 8:36 am PT

    Some people keep saying that graphics don't matter for the Wii but when they look THAT terrible and dated I beg to differ. The Nintendo cheaped out big time by barely advancing the graphics capabilities beyond the Gamecube. It's about time they spent more money on their hardware.

  • raahsnavj

    Posted May 5, 2009 6:43 am PT

    Keep plugging OnLive developers and media, if it is the way of the future I'll keep playing my games from the past and move on to other hobbies.

    In a related comment, didn't this article get written last week...

  • nurse_tsunami

    Posted May 4, 2009 8:29 pm PT

    Graphics aren't necessarily going to make or break the Wii in the future, it is going to be the availability of good games for both casual and hardcore gamers. The Wii had a killer year last year due to all the excellent 1st party games that came out for it. But without 3rd party publishers figuring out how to make games for the Wii other than party-game crap, I don't know how long Nintendo can get by just putting out 1st party games. That is a big part of what sunk the N64.

  • Ted_Zanarukando

    Posted May 4, 2009 7:43 pm PT

    There will not be an eighth console generation until after 2013, due to the current financial crisis, which began in late 2008. I disagree with Rottenwood. The shelf life of the seventh generation consoles is longer than the previous console generations. It is not possible to release the eighth console generation in 2011 due to this economic crisis. Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony can no longer release a new console generation within five or six years.

  • hatieshorrer

    Posted May 4, 2009 7:32 pm PT

    @4quarters

    Your comment is so lacking in common sense Im just going to assume your trying to set a record for the lowest rated comment but because you may ask whats wrong with it.

    "The Wii collects dust and the kids(11 and 13) don't play it , I just bought Madworld and they didn't play for more than an hour."
    1)Your stated your kids play the game that you just bought so how dose your Wii collect dust and how are they not playing it and playing Madworld at the same time.
    2)You bought an M-rated game for under-aged kids.
    3)You bought a single player game for two kids.
    4)You bought a game criticised for being repetitive for your kids and you complain they loose interest too quickly.
    5)Did it even occur to you that your kids dont play Madworld for very long because they prefer different games such as ones that are higher rated or better saling.

  • jeffokiecorry2

    Posted May 4, 2009 5:32 pm PT

    @guitarshank007
    Amen.

  • 4quarters

    Posted May 4, 2009 3:58 pm PT

    I cown all 3 systems(2PS3's) so I CAN say the Wii motion is terrible and Sony's isn't much better. If the technology were REALLY accurateit would be more fun to play.The Wii collects dust and the kids(11 and13) don't play it , I just bought Madworld and they didn't play for more than an hour. 360 is in serious need of more original games, and Sony is getting most play lately. A HD Wii will not make better games, developers make better games. And the graphics are NOT the problem, Wii needs BETTER GAMES!!! The other two need to get prices back down to $50, we buy a lot of download games for all 3 for less than $10.00( of course Sony is the only one that actually charges in dollars) and get more gaming bang for the buck.

  • guitarshank007

    Posted May 4, 2009 3:14 pm PT

    I own my Wii for the virtual console. Old school gaming is where it is. I'm tired of seeing the same old first person warfare games coming out on the PS3 and 360 that change nothing but the story and graphics between any one of them.

  • nini200

    Posted May 4, 2009 3:12 pm PT

    This should've been included with the Wii to begin with along with Motion Plus. As a Wii owner, I feel a little gypped (If that's how it's spelled). Buy the core system then have to buy every bit and piece to fully utilize the system. (This is also done on the other systems too so don't get too happy Sony and MS Fans). The only reason I can see that Nintendo is doing this is because they see how MS and Sony are getting ready to release their Motion Controllers (Which if I can recall correctly, MS and Sony Fans were calling Gimmicks but now that it's coming to their system, it's all of a sudden a great new fresh idea) and since they already have HD graphics, the addition of Motion Controllers would pretty much isolate the Wii due to the fact that the motion controls (Which Nintendo did NOT create, just utilized first with a gaming console other than a PC) are the only thing that truthfully set it apart from the other two competitor consoles. MS and Sony are copying Nintendo with the Motion Controls and now Nintendo is Copying MS and Sony with HD. That's just how I see it.

  • andrew_ribbons

    Posted May 4, 2009 2:57 pm PT

    Why does Gamespot keep bringing OnLive up again and again as if it's seriously got any hope of succeeding? It's horrible! It'll have massive latency issues and the cost will be horrendous. Also the slight issue that it can only support 25000 players online at once? Compare that to the 4Million+ that are on Xbox Live at any one time around the world. Now can they seriously turn round and say that's got a hope in hell of competing with mainstream consoles? It may work, it may stay alive and functional, but it'll always be a little niche project.

    Anyway on-topic, I don't really care what Nintendo do with the Wii any more. Until they stop faffing around with bathroom scales and stick waggling, i'm completely turned off their efforts. Their games output has been generic and boring so far anyway, which is the main reason i'd buy a console over my default, which is PC gaming.

  • wiiplay1

    Posted May 4, 2009 2:01 pm PT

    @SicklySunStorm: Where did I say he thinks that? I just quoted what he said. I didn't say I think he does care.

    @nappan: Your sarcastic hurt. But in all seriousness, I don't really have a say in his idea of "fair." I'm not saying he truly wants things to be fair for everyone. Chances are his idea of fairness are just for his company. You think I'm offended? Hell no. I don't plan on buying another Wii whether it's half priced or not.

  • Trmpt

    Posted May 4, 2009 1:27 pm PT

    I hope that the next gen consoles are released long before 2013. Why? I got my 360 a few months after launch and its already starting to seem old to me. I hope that they roll out next gen softaware in 2011 at the latest.

  • 07pops07

    Posted May 4, 2009 1:26 pm PT

    they wont a make a mid-system upgrade due to instal base devs couldnt makes games for it knowing that most the the wii owners could play it....makes no sense

  • grillepain_man

    Posted May 4, 2009 1:13 pm PT

    @ uberjannie: You suck!

    Useless commentary, we all know what killer336 wanted to say

  • Jim_bo_bo

    Posted May 4, 2009 1:12 pm PT

    @Rottenwood

    The rumored HD Wii is just supposed to add DVD playback and support for 1080p TV screens... I'd hardly call that cutting-edge...

  • uberjannie

    Posted May 4, 2009 1:08 pm PT

    @killer336 : What is "True Graphics" ?*LOL*

  • gordos24

    Posted May 4, 2009 1:00 pm PT

    nintendo we dont need a wii hd.we need some good games.before 2010. where are the old days of nintendo?

  • Rottenwood

    Posted May 4, 2009 12:34 pm PT

    Nobody bought a Wii for cutting-edge technology; an upgrade would seem to be a waste of resources.

    As for no new consoles until 2013... highly unlikely. The shelf life of a console is around 5 years now as everyone tries to get the jump on the others with the newest machine. I WISH consoles would last longer - some of the best games come at the end of a console's shelf life, as developers have tons of experience with the machine and can push it to the limits - but that business model is gone.

  • slayersdeath200

    Posted May 4, 2009 12:25 pm PT

    @ eagles_band
    How are graphics the most important part of any game?
    It is gameplay that makes a good game heck i still play my megadrive why because it has awesome games on it

  • Frankasti

    Posted May 4, 2009 12:17 pm PT

    I cant agree with eagles_band... I think "having fun" is the most important thing... i.e; Flower is great looking, but boring to play... Okami is not that great looking, but very enjoyable

  • killer336

    Posted May 4, 2009 12:14 pm PT

    @ eagles band
    actually it's the gameplay that matters the most.
    True graphics are pretty important but ultimately it is how well the game interacts the user.

  • eagles_band posted May 4, 2009 12:06 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    eagles_band

    Posted May 4, 2009 12:06 pm PT (hide)

    Graphics are the most important part of any game.

  • gonzalezj1

    Posted May 4, 2009 12:06 pm PT

    I wish GS would mention in these analyst articles the previous predictions that the analyst has made and how accurate the analyst is. Or at least provide links to past articles on the analyst.

  • jtthegame316

    Posted May 4, 2009 11:34 am PT

    i got a wii already but the 360 is my main console. wii can do hd but just barly with 480p

  • dashizy666

    Posted May 4, 2009 10:51 am PT

    This is a bad move. All good games are on PS3, 360. Wouldn't be nice to have Fallout 3 on a nintendo console. How about a Zelda in HD? what about COD2 modern warfare. The wii is cool but the games just don't impress me. How many Half *** mini game title will be released until this system goes stale?

  • chocolate1325

    Posted May 4, 2009 10:39 am PT

    I aren't bothered by HD just as long as the games are fun. I just hope that Nintendo doesn't wait till 2013 to bring out the next big Mario platform game.

  • Rect_Pola

    Posted May 4, 2009 10:28 am PT

    Not that HD won't come to a Nintendo platform, but I doubt it'll be the a relative to Wii. Nintendo already proved that graphical baby steps are perfectly allowable if the content behind it is worthwhile.

    I wonder if analysts listen to themselves. Unless he's talking about some form of add-on (not terribly likely), getting upgraded Wii's into millions of homes in 2010 wouldn't be worth the effort with new consoles to compete with coming around 3 years later. Might as well stay the course and play out Wii.

    Nintendo is addressing the limits of the original remotes with MotionPlus because it was provably flawed and being functionally lacking hurts games. Graphics are an artistic limitation that can, and arguably has been worked around with enough care.

  • genfactor

    Posted May 4, 2009 10:27 am PT

    Nintendo is not going to make an "HD" anything until next gen. I think Nintendo learned from Sony and Microsoft what happens when you introduce multiple SKU's. You don't capture the mainstream by confusing them to the point where they have to ask questions like "what's the difference between this version or that version".

    Has this dude Patcher ever been right? Did'nt he predict that the wii would never sell more than 11 million units and PS3 would sell more than 90 mil, and that this would be nintendo's last system or was that one of his insightful analyst friends?

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