Analyst: 2 million Lost and Damned, next GTA by Nov. '10

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter expects first Grand Theft Auto IV DLC to go double-platinum by October 31; raises rating on Take-Two stock, believes new full game due during publisher's next fiscal year.

Last Friday, Microsoft triumphantly announced that Grant Theft Auto IV: The Lost and Damned had "eclipsed first-day revenue for all previous downloadable content on Xbox Live." The software giant also played up the fact that the Xbox 360-exclusive expansion--the first of two due this year--was the "highest-reviewed downloadable content ever from Rockstar Games."

Profits for life, Lost forever!

What Microsoft didn't do was offer any sales figures for The Lost and Damned, which won't be tracked by the retail-focused research firm the NPD Group. Today, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter stepped into the breach, estimating that the $20 add-on has sold more than 1 million units to date. The game-industry cognoscenti went on to predict that it will go on to sell more than 2 million units by October 31, the end of Rockstar Games parent Take-Two Interactive's fiscal year.

Pachter went on to say that he considers Take-Two a "one-hit wonder." Luckily, that one hit is the Grand Theft Auto series, which the analyst is confident will haul the publisher's stock out of Wall Street's basement. Initially valued at $26 a share in Electronic Arts' rejected buyout offer last year, Take-Two stock was trading under $6 as of press time--still almost four times as much as General Motors, and nearly six times as much as Citigroup.

However, Pachter upgraded his rating on Take-Two today from "hold" to "buy," and set a target price of $10 for its stock. He pointed to Take-Two's recent signing of long-term contracts with Rockstar Games founders Dan and Sam Houser as ensuring a steady stream of top-quality GTA games for the foreseeable future. That's in addition to the all-new franchise the brothers are working on, possibly exclusively for the PlayStation 3.

"We acknowledge that this upgrade may appear early in light of the company's cautious outlook for near break-even results in fiscal year 2009," wrote Pachter, before making an industry-rattling prediction. "However, we believe that the company's share price fully reflects the cautious guidance, and disregards a potential GTA release in fiscal year 2010, as well as better performance in the future." (Emphasis added.)

Pachter went on to say it was a "reasonable expectation" for the next GTA to arrive sometime between November 1, 2009 and October 31, 2010. That means that the next game in the series could hit anytime: Although installments in the series traditionally shipped during October, last year Grand Theft Auto IV launched in April after months of delays. He also believes that it's likely the next batch of GTAIV DLC will arrive after Take-Two's current fiscal year ends in October.

240 Comments

  • aaaaaa12

    Posted Aug 31, 2009 6:53 pm PT

    this pachter guy gets everything wrong i don't know if we should believe him anymore...

  • Warlord_Irochi

    Posted Apr 9, 2009 5:30 pm PT

    @parhar67
    "already your saying the only money being made from the DLC is the people buying it"

    Yes, the DLC... and the retailers... and the D2D...

  • cid_007

    Posted Mar 12, 2009 3:01 am PT

    This Pachter guy is a chump! Anyone can predict GTA will sell millions.

  • Noctobum

    Posted Mar 11, 2009 1:04 pm PT

    @FinalDuo1886

    I believe there were reports that Rockstar was making an exclusive title for PS3, but they never stated it to be GTA 5. As well, I doubt it would be GTA since they'll sell more copies if its multiplatform.

    @Nem1
    Theres also other exclusives, that have been released for the PS3, with some still upcoming, and are not limited to just MGS4 and KZ. These games include GoW3, SOCOM, GT5, LBP, etc.

    As for the topic, great to see some sales coming up to help the economy, although a shame that the DLC is 360 exclusive. But then again, I have a 360 and haven't bought it yet. Not sure if I will, I'm sure its a great game but GTA 4 was enough for me for now.

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 11, 2009 9:01 am PT

    @parhar67
    "already your saying the only money being made from the DLC is the people buying it"
    that's how buying and selling works...

  • magusat999

    Posted Mar 11, 2009 7:51 am PT

    They would have made DLC - it just wouldn't be called "DLC" and we wouldn't have to pay for it. Microsoft is the one who started calling what was previously called "free mods" DLC - and then charging people for it.

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 11, 2009 4:31 am PT

    @parhar67
    you say im repeatiing myself when im bringin out different facts to disprove your arguement. And all you have said is, "im saying rockstar wouldnt of made the dlc if microsoft didnt give them the idea" "Rockstar probably would have never made DLC if microsoft didnt ask them" and my favourite "rockstar doesn't care about sales." right after you say "microsoft makes no money off of DLC sales". Don't contradict yourself. And don't ignore half of what I say man. I tell you that the can't have possibly made $200 million a year and all you say is stuuf you said before. " All you've done is repeat repeat repeat. Seriously just accept the fact that more than 1 milliom copies of the DLC would have sold out of the 13 MILLION copies of GTA4 if it was released on the PC as well as PS3. Just look at the company's trouble now.(which you ignored since your just like a broken record with nothing else to say)
    Bottom Line: If a corporation's product sells 13 million at $60 a pop, sells 1 million DLC(which is pathetic) at $20 a pop, take a $50 million party favor from Microsoft, and STILL is complaining about money, they have no dealing with the business.
    But all you gonna say back is"But microsoft asked them to make the DLC" and "rockstar doesn't care about sales."
    do me a favour and bring fact to prove the microsoft ASKED rockstar to make them DLC. that would be like sony asking for guitar hero song packs... just plain stupid.

  • parhar67

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 10:45 pm PT

    Malco_Vincenzo

    You are truly stupid man seriously give it up already your saying the only money being made from the DLC is the people buying it like seriously man you are not smart are you? do you think they would make more money putting it on PS3 and 360? then getting paid by microsoft a lot and then putting it only one the 360? Stop putting words in my mouth im saying rockstar wouldnt of made the dlc if microsoft didnt give them the idea buddy like honestly your like a little kid i have to keep repeating myself here just stop your making yourself look stupid.

    And the 360 was always cheaper than the wii in japan even before the price drop here in north america.

  • nem1

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 7:28 pm PT

    to : FinalDuo1886

    The PS3 doesnt have the user base to warrant an exclusive title (especially one as large as GTA) So far only Metal Gear and Kill Zone are like the only major games not to jump ship. GTA 4, Assassins Creed, Devil May Cry 4, and many others were all meant to be PS3 exclusive, but facts are that the 360 has continued to outsell the PS3. and nobody jump me and say that im just against the PS3

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 4:08 pm PT

    @ parhar67
    #1. THE 360 IS CHEAPER THAN THE WII WORLDWIDE DUMMY. (Only Arcade Tho)
    #2.TAKE-TWO ROCKSTAR'S PARENT COMPANT LOST OVER $900 MILLION DOLLARS, making the $200 million a year you claim that Rockstar made null.
    #3. rockstar averaging 200 million a year? BULL! When their parant company only made 130 mill last year? How does Rockstar not only out perform it's own parent company in revenue? That makes no sense seeing as how Take-Two Owns 20 other developers, including 2K.
    #4. your saying that companies now only make DLC when microsoft pays them to? What do you call level packs in every shooter game on both consoles? I call that you being ignorant of DLC that comes out not only on other consoles, but in the case of a lot of games, FREE.

    And if you just read the top story Take-Two aint lookin to good. Their stock took a major drop. Truth is they've been losing money since 2007. Exclusivity was the last thing they should have done at that point man. Exclusive games when your company ain't doin too hot is just plain stupid.

  • FinalDuo1886

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 3:44 pm PT

    I'm not for sure on this, so don't hold me on this, but I've heard and seen on different forums that Rockstar has made a deal with Sony, so the next GTA is going to be a exclusive, and the DLC's will be exclusive for the 360, and if that true? Rockstar will officially be milking these companies bone dry .

  • parhar67

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 3:06 pm PT

    @ malco_vincenzo

    Your not understanding anything man Rockstar probably would have never made DLC if microsoft didnt ask them to they only did it becuase they already got paid for it. If microsoft didnt say we would bay you XX amount of dollars to make a DLC why would they waste their time if they didnt get one download of the DLC they wouldnt have lost anything microsoft already paid them for it. Your earlier remark of rockstar not making 50 million a year....they average over 200 million a year.

    End of discussion Rockstar said hey we will pay you this much money to make a DLC.

    Rockstar replies Ok sure we can do that although we wouldnt have if you never asked

    In Japan and China the 360 is cheaper than the WII look it up

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 12:27 pm PT

    @ parhar7
    "rockstar doesn't care about sales"
    really?
    because the $500 million dollars that they made off of the game says otherwise champ.
    if every game company didn't care about sale and sat around waiting for a microsoft paycheck would we even have a gaming market today bud?

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 12:24 pm PT

    @ parhar67
    "And the star ocean thing you have to remember it was only on the ps2"

    it seems you don't know your games. Star Ocean has been around since the SNES days man. Star OCean 1 was a SNES title. Star OCean 2 Was A PS1 title. and i think we're all pretty sure that Star Ocean 4: The Last Hope( which is a prequel by the way) will hit PS3s around next year. come one there are already talks of the Last Remnant bieng ported due to bad 360 ales as well as Infinite Undiscovery. JRPG are too popular in Japan to be just left on console that no one in that country owns. Secondly, to you remark about spending money to make money, what the system sales come down to, at least in N. America, is pirce. N. Americans are cheap so we'll buy the cheapest system, right now being the 360 arcade. everywhere else in the world people think that buying the most expensive thing means better quality. Sorry man but that's the European Market's mindset. M$ buying out DLCs and exclusivity hasn't worked out there.
    as for M$ not receiveing any money for the DLC, that's b.s. You're using XBOX LIVE to buy the damn DLC of course M$ gets money off of sales.
    and as for your remark about there being over 1 billion asian people overseas your right. but there aren't that many people in china that can afford a PS3 let alone a 360. that's what we call a communist/command economy. that and there are only 100 million people in japan. N. Amereica has over 333 million people. It just goes to show that buying exclusivity for the 360, and from the PS3 doesn't make everyone want a 360. that tactic hasn't at all. Besides we allknow the ultamite sales tactic the Sony used to keep the original xbox's sales at only around 20 million. It's called the PRICE DROP.

  • brendanhunt1

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 9:50 am PT

    rockstar wont be happy, they gave away two dlc for $50 million when they could of made that much for just one dlc on both consoles

  • parhar67

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 7:38 am PT

    @Malco_Vincenzo

    Your intial statement was about profit rockstar has their money so they dont care about profit and microsoft doesnt make anything off the DLC all that goes towards rockstar so if they did no sign the contract with microsoft for the dlc in the first place they wouldnt of made it at all. Since they have the money before hand they had nothing to lose. Profits already made And about the ps3 outselling evreywhere except north america it could help that there are over 1 billion chineese and japanese people oversease. Not saying all of them bought a ps3 but if even 10 percent of that population bought a ps3 it would obviously outsell

    And the star ocean thing you have to remember it was only on the ps2 and its obvious all those people switched to the ps3 and you would have to play the other star ocean games to know what was happening in this one....and they only bought the rights to boost sales in japan for the 360....again its called marketing man you have to spend money to make the potential profit not evreything works

  • StarlightHunter

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 5:13 am PT

    @KyoValdez Jesus: "You know what will be a great idea for the DLC?
    KV: What's that, Jesus?
    Jesus: A PS3 version of the DLC.
    KV: That's a great idea, Jesus."

    do you know how stupid you sound, a ps3 version of the dlc, how about a xbox 360 version of mgs4, you wouldnt like that would you. shut up and give it a rest you inbecile.

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 10, 2009 4:50 am PT

    @parhar67 50 million is chump change?
    not for Take Two, rockstars parent company. that companie lost almost I billion dollar in revenue over the past two years. and secondly don't think that hiding behind the "i own both systems therefore im not a fanboy" excuse really works. YOU have nothing to complai about. it's the 5 million other people that own GTA 4 ps3 that are pissed. And as for spending money to make your console #1, how much do you think M$ paid for exclusivity of Star Ocean 4? cause that game as popular as the series is hasn't even sold 70, 000 world wide yet. after being out for a month that's kinda pathetic. That ain't helpin 360 sale at all.
    Another fun fact with all of the M$ spending happening how come the PS3 is selling more systems everywhere except N. America?

  • parhar67

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 9:01 pm PT

    rockstar does not care about sales they have their money they probably wouldnt care if not one person downloaded this game

  • parhar67

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 9:00 pm PT

    @Malco_Vincenzo

    Its not about money buddy its about advertising microsoft did this to draw people towards the 360 so you say they pissed away that money i dont think so 50 million dollars for microsoft is chump change remember they own the computer industry so you gota spend money to make your console number one. You think rockstar gives a crap they already got their 50 million you think they now care about the ps3 fanboys crying? I own both systems so do not call me a 360 fanboy just stating facts

  • da_illest101

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 8:45 pm PT

    so basically out of 6 millions of 360 owners that brought gta 4 only 1 million downloaded the expansion pack. I hope the fanboy are gonna stop saying that the ps3 is jealous of this expansion pack because it seem like the majority of the gta 4 owner just don't give a damn about it.

    @ yoko81, you must have failed mathematics pretty bad lol

  • gnrlstuart

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 8:40 pm PT

    @vin cenzo
    ms went with a strategic victory, so even though money was lost, it meant their console had the exclusivity which = more console sales.

  • TheArcade

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 8:27 pm PT

    @DullBozer:

    "As for the "lack of good games syndrom" that was never a problem on the 360 for me, in fact the last time i had this many games to play was about 22 years ago when i played my NES. So what bothered me in your post was your lame comment on Halo players."

    Seconded. I own more games for my 360 than I've ever owned for my NES which happens to be plenty.

  • DullBozer

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 8:02 pm PT

    @ecko1o1

    Hehe, yeah... you know a month ago someone would have given me a PS3 and i would have sold it, honestly there was nothing for me to play on that system and all the games released on both platforms look and/or play better on the 360, but KZ2 does look good. I can't justify buying a 400$ system for 1 game, so im still wating, so far, its been 2 and a half year since the PS3 came out and im still waiting. By the time theres at least 2 or 3 games i want to play the thing it will be down to 300$? 250$? Anyways im glad i waited. On the other hand, i could easily justify buying a second 360 for my bedroom.

    As for the "lack of good games syndrom" that was never a problem on the 360 for me, in fact the last time i had this many games to play was about 22 years ago when i played my NES. So what bothered me in your post was your lame comment on Halo players,

  • Malco_Vincenzo

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 8:00 pm PT

    @parhar67 rockstar actually recieved $50 million to give M$ exclusivity for the DLC. I'm sorry to say but selling DLC to one system over the other limits the profit made. no question. Only 1 million people so far have bought the DLC out of the 11 mil that own it. 6 mil of those are 360 owners. we all know that 2 million sales of the DLC by October won't happen. Even if it does happen that way do the math. 2mil time $20= $ 40million. M$ isn't the sole creator of the DLC and won't get even 15% of that. M$ just pissed away $50 million they won't see again. Rockstar doesn't even make $50 million a year, of course they were going to take the money.

  • spikedwraith

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 7:46 pm PT

    "Did I strike a soft spot? Did I insult your favorite game? haha you sounded so offended. I guess the 'lack of good games syndrome' is starting to hurt isn't it? Maybe you should engage in the "2000 hours of your life doing something they wouldn't want to do even if paid to do it" activity so that you could finally buy a ps3? Good idea isn't it? But then again you probably live in your grandmother's basement. Oh well."

    Why would you buy a ps3 now? If anything the best time to buy a ps3 would be in 3 or 4 years time, when they can actually make good games that aren't sequels or cheap ports of 360 games...But then if you're gonna wait that long you might aswell get a good PC.

  • TheArcade

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 4:45 pm PT

    @ecko1o1: Yeah you were, from what I remember.

  • ecko1o1

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 4:22 pm PT

    @TheArcade

    I was?

  • TheArcade

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 1:58 pm PT

    @Sweet Water '94:

    You mean the game with the control-lag problems and the busted patch fix? Just kidding, I know PS3 has good games and I expect KZ2 to be successful.

    But seriously calling people "Xbots" is so juvenile. Xbot, hm, I didn't know anyone used that word any more.

  • niels200683

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 1:57 pm PT

    Hm... I wonder what the possible ps3 exclusive will be...
    I sure hope it isn't bully 2 - actually I hope it is, but I hope it will not appear at the end of the PS3's lifecycle - only to come out for the Xbox1080 and the Swii (I don't know what nintendo will call their next console, so I just assumed the NES/SNES moniker) half a year later.

    Although last time that happened with 'a' bully / canis canem edit title, I was glad (owning GC and Wii... and no PS2 )

    However, being the proud owner of a PS3 (mainly because of the hard disk / blu-ray / media center options) I do feel like I'm really missing out on this DLC...

    On the other hand, I still haven't finished GTAIV itself... actually, after owning the PS3 for about 3 months, and owning 10 games for it - I have only managed to finish one of them (Spiderman, WoS - because it was short and easy...) - so I should be content with what I have...

    yeah...

    I should be...

    At least we got Darth Vader for free...

  • Sweetwater94

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 1:46 pm PT

    whoa, motorcyles, thats nifty for the xbots!!!

    *snickers while playing KZ2

  • TheArcade

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 1:45 pm PT

    @ecko1o1:

    How can he "waste" so many hours on a game he enjoys? That's not a waste that's time well spent on a great hobby. Halo is a good game so no matter how much you bash it, the gamers will just keep embracing it. Another thing if most PS3 owners don't care about the Lost & Damned expansion then how come we see alot of them asking for it everytime a related article surfaces? In fact I recall you were the main one throwing a fit about the DLC not being multiplatform.

  • DullBozer

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 1:27 pm PT

    ecko1o1

    Its great that you know most PS3 owners and are able to share this information with us, i knew there weren't many but wow. Im also glad that most PS3 owners don't care about this DLC, because if i only owned a PS3 and could't afford a 360 for whatever reason, i would be really pissed to miss this right now. Also, im no Halo fan and didn't play it much, but its a good game and a lot of people like it. Im sorry you didn't, but im sure you also "wasted" 2000 hours of your life doing something they wouldn't want to do even if paid to do it. Anyway, sorry you had to find out you weren't the center of the universe on a gamespot board like this, but i guess it had to happen sometime, i might have saved you a few bucks on therapy and hookers later on.

  • ecko1o1

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 12:36 pm PT

    Hah, there's the xbot fanboy salarian chemist. Sorry but most ps3 owners couldn't care less about the lost and damned. I think 40 hours of the original GTA IV was more than enough. Time to move on you know? But then again you've probably wasted 2000 hours of your life on Halo 3 multi so w/e.

  • brendanhunt1

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 12:12 pm PT

    If gta v is exclusive on ps3 then dont expect it to be cheap

  • brendanhunt1

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 12:07 pm PT

    What we do know is that ps3 will be getting an exclusive from rockstar north, it might not be gta but who knows?? You will just have to wait

  • SalarianChemist

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 11:32 am PT

    Grand Theft Auto 5 may end up as an Xbox 360 exclusive according to rumors floating around the Internet.

    But, we won't need to worry about that for quite a while, because Rockstar Games is going to be busy releasing the second expansion pack for the Xbox 360 version of Grand Theft Auto 4 later this year.

    I really do feel bad for Playstation 3 and PC owners who didn't know these expansion packs were only going to be released for the Xbox 360.

  • Teh_Total_Nub

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 11:10 am PT

    I wanna be able to play as the mafia again, loved GTA 3 during it's first set of missions working to be made was truely fun.

    I just hope they bring back the mobster, i wanna play as ray or someone in that organisation, maybe someone who skips town and managed to avoid niko? whatever they decide im sure they will do it successfully.

  • necronaux

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 10:19 am PT

    GTA 5 by '10 xmas? Ambitious.

  • yoko81

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 9:46 am PT

    2 million thats more than the all the ps3 users combined lol.

  • Heffe2020

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 9:44 am PT

    All they are trying to say is that take two is doing a lot better then they were at the end of there last fiscal year. I am truely happy for them they definately deserve it after the huge slump they went through.

  • technowiz999

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 9:42 am PT

    SgtDetritus you know nothing of the stock market. GM didn't dilute their stock. They have kept relatively the same number of shares since their stock was high. This means that they have lost value. It is a perfectly legitimate comparison. TT only diluted their stock a small fraction when EA was attempting to take over. For example a year ago GM had around 500 million shares at 27$ a pop. That's around 13.5 billion dollars. Now they have 610 million shares at 1.50 with a value of a little over 900 million dollars. The company still has assets, meaning property, which has a face value, and i think that is what you are confused with. GM lost 10 billion dollars in cash last year, that is not the signs of a lasting company.

    But you are correct our government will waste its money and bail them out for whatever reason. You will be able to buy an unattractive and unreliable Chevy in 50 years.

  • jazilla

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 8:47 am PT

    i agree with SgtDetritus. The price per share thing was a bad thing to point out. But hey, these guys are in the business of reviewing and reporting on game news, however fast or slow that may be.

  • SgtDetritus

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 7:54 am PT

    "Initially valued at $26 a share in Electronic Arts' rejected buyout offer last year, Take-Two stock was trading under $6 as of press time--still almost four times as much as General Motors, and nearly six times as much as Citigroup."

    This means absolutely nothing. How many outstanding shares are there? $0.50/share for 400,000,000 shares is a lot of capital, $999/share for 2,000 shares is not. GM isn't going out of business, boneheads. The UAW might, but you'll still be able to buy a Chevy when you grow up and learn to drive actual cars made of molecules instead of photons.

    I like my GTA, but R* vs. GM?? Not even a contest........

  • DullBozer

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 7:03 am PT

    The more i play the more i wish this was the storyline included in the original game. Playing as Niko was fun, don't get me wrong, but playing as Johnny is just awesome.

    I would welcome more DLC like this for many other games. 60$ gets you the DVD to play, the engine,the whole backbone of the game and one story to play through. Being able to buy more stories makes the original purchase even more worthwhile. Awesome move from MS and Rockstar, thanks guys.

  • am1damaru

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 6:47 am PT

    Beardrewz I read your comment and I can't believe what the hell you've written. How... just how... nevermind I have no words for people like you. Well Microsoft made a good move with buying Lost and Damned for Xbox. I want to see the "possibly exclusively for the PS3" addon which can make a something like kick-back in Microsoft ass.

  • thenephariouson

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 6:31 am PT

    I therefore foresee MS going down the Online Storage route via 'Kiosks' where all the content you purchase is stored online, but this wont happen for a while, however it would justify the XBL Gold subscription.

  • thenephariouson

    Posted Mar 9, 2009 6:29 am PT

    MattyWoah, I absoloutely agree, i have attached an External USB drive which i stream my films from, however you dont get the option to download to an alternative destination, so im supposed to download a fill my 20g 360 drive with the understanding of purchasing/ upgrading it to a 60/120gb 360 drive, when i could simply plug in a 1TB USB drive as storage saving me alot of ££££, that does get on my 111s.

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