Pachter: $299 PS3 due in April, $249 360 in June

Wedbush Morgan's game-industry wise man forecasts tit-for-tat price cuts from Sony, Microsoft in weeks leading up to E3; $2.62 billion in December software sales forecast.

Shortly after EEDAR's Jesse Divinch weighed in with his forecast of NPD Group's December game sales--expected this Thursday--another game-industry wise man stepped up to the plate. Wedbush Morgan's oft-quoted Michael Pachter nearly concurs with his peer, predicting that more than 3.25 million Wiis were sold domestically during the month, followed by 1.35 million Xbox 360s and 750,000 PlayStation 3s.

Software-wise, Pachter thinks that December saw a 10 percent rise in monthly US software sales, from $2.39 billion in 2007 to $2.63 billion in 2009. He believes the top games of the month were (in no particular order) Guitar Hero World Tour, Call of Duty: World at War, Gears of War 2, Rock Band 2, Wii Fit, and Prince of Persia. Though the NPD numbers cover only console games, he also doffed his hat to the wildly popular PC expansion pack World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King.

By the analyst's estimate, $2.42 billion of US game software sales were for the PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS, with the remaining $205 million coming from games for legacy systems. He thinks that PlayStation 2 game sales will continue to fall by roughly half each month, having slid 51 percent year-on-year in November and an estimated 54 percent year-on-year in December.

Although his comments on the PlayStation 2 were noteworthy, it's Pachter's predictions for the PlayStation 3 that will likely pique gamers' interest. The financial veteran believes that, after being relegated to third place in the console race by the 360's $199 price drop in September, the 80GB PS3 base model will be cut from $399 to $299 in April.

He also believes that, wishing to maintain momentum, Microsoft will follow suit, knocking $50 off of its 60GB 360 Pro model around the time of the 2009 Electronic Entertainment Expo, which runs from June 2-4. Pachter expects no price cut for the Wii until the holiday season--if there is one at all--due to still-record-high demand for the console.

341 Comments

  • geedotherodian

    Posted Jan 29, 2009 4:03 pm PT

    what about price cut for psp it is outselling the ps3 and i think resistance retribution and some new sony support will boost its popularity this year

  • zacattack214

    Posted Jan 21, 2009 7:28 pm PT

    Well I guess we will not know until April if he is right. I for one think it would be good for Sony. Even though the are already selling PS3's at a loss, I assume (I'm no master of economics) they will still be able to make a larger profits by selling more consoles because it will in turn lead to more game sales and PSN customers. They have a healthy list of exclusives coming their way. And with a price tag of $299, there is no reason not to buy a PS3. I know I will ... if it drops that is

  • Compilation

    Posted Jan 20, 2009 11:32 am PT

    Microsoft's volume of sales is better than the PS3. Quote, 'Maintain momentum'. Okay so they work diligently, but why act full of disdain and disparagement? Decreasing the 360 consoles sales price for example, that won’t prove a great difference. Microsoft and Xbox are doing considerably well in this moment in time, but still they stick their noses into Sony’s epic loss. In all due respect I feel it was them mainly who plagiarized Sony and Nintendo's initial ideations. They literally leech off of successive ideations and what not nowadays. Playstation has been bullied so much in recent years, hardly anyone favors it anymore. But then again I suppose no one would with all battered scars and bruises. Hardly an attractive person in analogical sense? If they do decrease the PS3’s price cost, then pat-on-the-back. You have to realise the PS3 is equipped with so much booty it’s understandable it costs so much, but product volume is terrible in competitive relations. There’s no need to blabber on. I’ve made my point.

    Back on topic. Those stipulated prices are dreamy wishes and probably won’t even fall in price for some time yet. For the love of a grilled cheese sandwich, where the hell has this bloke been in the past year or so? It’s nice to know he seems passionate about by analytically given us predictions on console price change, but who hasn’t recently?

  • ajac

    Posted Jan 19, 2009 9:28 pm PT

    I can see a 299 ps3. They need to make money and to sell games they need thier system to be affordable. The economy so hurt right now ps3 is gonna die if they dont do something. A 249 360 I cant see right now. One thing microsoft needs to do is drop the price of its hard drives I mean come on 60 gig for 99 bucks? 179 for a 120 gig? All 360 hard drives are sata 2.5 inch drives. If I could get away with putting a store bought one in thier like on the ps3 id be game but they love to ban on xbox live. Also xbox live should be free as well.

  • usmaan7000

    Posted Jan 19, 2009 4:47 pm PT

    imagine how low the price would be on Black Friday........

  • tehpurplepills

    Posted Jan 19, 2009 8:58 am PT

    no offense zintar but are you a professional?
    cuz this guy is...

  • grlew

    Posted Jan 19, 2009 6:53 am PT

    This has been said before and I may as well say it again PS3 has a Blu-Ray player so why the hell would they cut the price, if you bought it as just a Blu-Ray player its pretty cheap, you add into that a great game system too, it is well worth the price. If Sony cuts the PS3 price it will also have to cut the price on its Blu-Ray players. As far as this who has the best exclusives thing again this year I honestly can't see that Xbox particularly has anything unless you are really into FPS I do enjoy a good FPS now and again but personally I much prefer action adventure there are boat loads of quality FPS's on both systems I don't see the big deal. Take Bioschock got it christmas time liked it alot but I just don't think it stands up in comparison to something like Dead Space, maybey its just me. Anyway what I'm saying is PS3 is going to have alot more diversity in its batch of exclusives this year than the 360

  • zintarr

    Posted Jan 18, 2009 8:36 am PT

    WOW...more predictions from a "professional" analyst. Seems to me the only reason Sony would drop the price anymore is if they want a repeat of the $1-Billion loss they posted for this year all over again. Sure, Sony is about to break even on the cost to make and sell the PS3 but it will be years before they begin to recover from the initial carnage.

    This Pachter is a moron and seems to be the type of investment guru that was BLIND to the impending implosion of the US economy. Thats ok though Mr Pachter...keep up the good work and lead those that listen to you into bankruptcy.

  • rockutd

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 8:40 pm PT

    That is insane.How bout $150 PS3 in 2011 and $99 360???

  • akirakorn

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 2:28 pm PT

    @superchink Xbox has overpriced acessories?? I still keep my PS2 around and had to get new controllers (don't ask) they still cost $25-$30 as does an 8MB memory chip

    come on, it's been over 8 years, can i at least backup some games for less than the cost of a new game?

    @morons who expect a $199 PS3, last time i check (yr ago mind you) a new PS2 was $125... again 8 years still 40% the price compared to launch ($299 if not mistaken), so you want a PS3 at less than 30% of the cost at launch, just 3 years later?

    @nearly the entire gaming community
    screw you and your 'exclusive titles' BS, most of us can only afford one, and i missed out on the original Xbox. I am extactic most of the 'top tier' games are multi platform, now more people can enjoy more quality games, was PS/PS2 fanboy, only reason i got xbox jones cause PS3 didn't come out, would've swapped back but xbox games were fun, made friends on live and FFXIII and Gran Turismo were nowhere in sight

    2 1/2 years later still no FFXIII or Tursimo in sight...

  • Mini-15

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 1:00 pm PT

    What the heck are you talking about bkn!gg@ . You said the PS3 has "fewww exclusives." Are you crazy, i could name the same number of exclusives the for both consoles. Also, if you look at the games coming out in 09, the PS3 has a lot of exclusies coming out. Killzone, InFamous, God of War, Heavy Rain, MAG, and a lot more.

  • eayoshi

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 12:09 pm PT

    What is this guy talking about? I already got a $130 Xbox Arcade w/ free DDR and a $230 Xbox Pro from Amazon this past Christmas!

  • rmoorevtps3

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 10:01 am PT

    the PS3's price won't be cut. They're still selling it a loss 2 years after its release you think now they're going to cut the price a 100 dollars so they go back to losing a 100 bucks a console just as they start to make money on consoles sold? If people were smart they would be buying a console that costs more to make than the company is selling it for, it truly shows its value in the hardware. Anyways, this "analyst" is an idiot and his story shouldn't be on Gamespot. This article is garbage.

  • amulbocus

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 5:29 am PT

    God of war 3 has 4 TIMES THE GRAPHICAL RESOLUTION as that of gears 2, this is where ps3 moves away from the preceding pack lol. Oh and forgot Killzone 2 hahahha.

  • rockutd

    Posted Jan 17, 2009 2:08 am PT

    this is good news for late porters.

  • spiritbreaker22

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 8:00 pm PT

    So if I wait for my PS3 until April and the price doesn't drop will he send me a $100 cheque?

  • ahpuck

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 4:45 pm PT

    such long and pointless comments for an unconfirmed rumor? get a job!

  • odoyle420

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 3:03 pm PT

    I really hope this is true but it just seems unlikely since sony is close to making a profit.

  • Kleeyook

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 2:53 pm PT

    299$!?
    I guess I should wait a bit more.

  • Masa_Cheez

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 12:26 pm PT

    I apologize for the weird characters in my last post. They were mostly comma's and quotation marks that for some reason went goofy.

  • Masa_Cheez

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 10:23 am PT

    @ UrbanMessiah - not to pick on you, but I think you're going to be waiting awhile for your PS3 if you decide to wait till it's $199. I would also love a $199 PS3, I just think it's going to be a while before that is a reality.

    @ TWiSTEDmerc - I agree, Microsoft’s hardware does malfunction too much. There's no denying that. Supposedly with the newest hardware that is supposed to be all but taken care of. We’ll have to wait and see what actually happens with that. I have to say that the rest of your argument is pretty soft though. The exclusives aren’t attractive or plentiful enough?? Console exclusives aren’t what they once were when it comes to the console wars. I agree they do still help sales but there are plenty of options to keep people happy if they can’t afford to buy all the consoles or just don’t want to. The Gears of War franchise, Halo Franchise, DLC exclusives (ala GTA IV) just off the top of my head. Those are some pretty successful franchises. I know Sony has theirs also but what does that have to do with anything about pricing??? As for the older console comment - the Wii is newer than the 360, yet the hardware is years behind the 360. The PS3, while on paper, seems to have an edge in hardware (besides the physical RAM) is being edged out (not by much and it's hard to tell) in graphics comparisons on a few games that are cross platform. Software and development, not hardware, really makes the games what they really are. For example, there have been comparisons between RE5 (although this is not on the final product) and Soul Calibur between the two systems. The 360 has the edge. Not by much, but for the graphics whores I guess it matters. I really don't think age has anything to do with this current generation of consoles. They are all very close in age and technology. If your argument for that is, “wait and see what the PS3 will do in the future”, well now is now, and this current run of software is what’s selling these consoles. For the gaming icon argument, what the hell does that have to do with anything and what do you even mean?? Who cares about gaming icons?? Lastly, the argument about avatars, achievements and online functionality - ok there has been a lot of steeling of ideas on all of these and no company is a saint when it comes to this. However, Xbox Live is the leading online gaming place to be. The PSN is slowly gaining the same respect of Xbox Live; however, you get what you pay for. The Xbox achievements have been a huge success and have helped drive sales on cross platform titles for the 360. The proof in that is Sony now implementing a Trophy system in their games to encourage gamers to buy their games so they feel as though they have accomplished and earned something for their efforts. As for avatars... both Sony (home) and Microsoft have stolen those ideas from Nintendo. But once again, I don't really think avatars are driving sales for any of these systems. Now, feel free to flame the crap out of me... :-D

  • bknigga

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 9:58 am PT

    @ Superchink

    HAHA

    I'll admit PS3 was appealing when it came out, just like obama it promised a "change." And at the time it was the cheapest Bluray player(@ release) you could get saving you around $250-$300. However now that standalone bluray players are the same price or less, its lost its appeal. Since its realease its proved, its AS effective AS the 360. PRO's, Its got the ability to go on the internet, which for people who dont have a pc, thats sweet good for them. However like most people that have a computer thats irrelevant. As is Bluray now, Its got a fewww Exclusives.. But not worth paying $400 for. And this promised "cell technology" and all the other bells and whistles, of how its so much better then the 360 = The difference between ATI and NVIDIA cards i.e. slight difference in color and shading. Nothing making 1 better then the other. Like most fan boys your just to upset to admit you payed out the butt for a PS3 for no advantage.

  • UrbanMessiah

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 9:08 am PT

    $299 for a PS3? Still too much for me, not when all the games I might have had to buy one to play wound up on the 360.

    Let it drop to $250 and get more games, then we'll talk. Better yet, drop it to $199 and I'll bite.

  • warlok9

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 8:23 am PT

    @ superchink

    $100/year gaming subscription? What is that? For Live? Check your facts, it's 49.99/year.

    Bottom line: How much does it cost to play HD games on 360? $199.99 (includes EVERYTHING you need including enough memory for game saves and also INCLUDES HD CABLES)

    How Much does it cost to play HD games on PS3? $399.99 (And you HAVE TO buy HD cables, so add $25 - $50)

    With the 360 you don't HAVE TO buy anything else. It is what it is. You don't need a blu ray player to play 360 games. Alot of people dont NEED a wireless adapter, that's why it's optional and the cost of the system is less because it is not included. (again, lowest possible market entry price). You don't NEED a hard drive to play 360 games.

  • Drkr_Zen

    Posted Jan 16, 2009 8:14 am PT

    Eh, if the 360 comes out with a few more games that interest me (one or two doesn't justify a purchase, unless its something like MGS, R&C or an FF title), it might be worth it.

    At the moment, though, even a $249 price tag isn't appealing considering all the extras and add-ons needed, alongside the problems the system suffers from (malfunctions, a company not devoted to its product in the long run, limited exclusive top tier titles).

    Anyway, it was bound to happen... Nintendo started near this price range and they sold their systems like hotcakes, after all.

  • Anteraan

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 6:28 pm PT

    I have had a 360 almost since release, but if the prices drop enough, I'll consider a PS3. It has done very well in Blu-Ray comparos. Like many, I look at the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player first, and secondly as a game system that has wonderful hardware specs, but suffers significantly on the software end.

    Note to both sets of fanboys: Yes, I would consider having them BOTH.

  • frazzle00

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 6:08 pm PT

    @superchink

    LOL. Go take a look at December's NPD figures. Despite your OPINION, it's obvious that in general, the American consumers DON'T agree with you. It sucks to be a Sony fanboy this generation doesn't it ?

  • superchink

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 5:31 pm PT

    Although Xbox360 is cheaper, the quality is just not there.

    1. The console malfunction alot

    2. $100/year online gaming subscription

    3. Overpriced accessories
    (It puzzled me when I hear people saying 360 "cheaper" than PS3???)

    4. Other than Halo and Gears of war there aren't that many other great exclusive titles on the console.

    On top of it all, it's still rocking up DVD games while the rest of the world shifting to storage space thirsty HD contents it won't be long before Blu-Ray take over DVD entirely as the new digital media.

    Also the console is intended for 5 years live cycle just like the first XBOX was. So if you haven't bought XBOX 360 yet, then don't. Because we're entering the 3rd year of 360 and which means you'll only get 2 more years of use before the console and the games developments being discontinued.

  • TWiSTEDmerc

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 5:08 pm PT

    I'll sum up my opinion on price for consoles easily: I'll pay a higher price if it means the console will be catered to longer by developers and publishers. Microsoft is dropping the price of the 360 quickly because they don't have too much else:
    -their hardware malfunctions too much
    -exclusives aren't attractive enough or plentifull
    -console is older than the PS3 & Wii by an entire year
    -doesn't have many gaming icons
    -concepts such as avatars, achievements, online functionality have become the standard and there aren't new ideas

  • superchink

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 4:34 pm PT

    PS3 is getting cheaper, Xbox360 is getting cheaper....

    If you're bitter about the fact that you were paying higher price for the same console before than now. Then I suggest that you stick with playing Boardgame!

    New technology becomes cheaper and cheaper as time progress.
    That's the way electronic IS!

  • PumpkinBoogie

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 4:30 pm PT

    @ASG_,

    I know right, LOL. From what I heard about this dude he's made a many gaming 'predictions'....in which most of them have been wrong. So I'd say talk it with a grain of salt until we actually SEE otherwise. But even if it is a price cut on the PS3, I don't think it'll be as drastic as $100.
    You know them analyst just wanna feel 'special' by making such wonder predictions! (/sarcasm)

  • zeniftan

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 1:47 pm PT

    No offence bostonpimpdaddy but I've had 3 replacement XBOX360's (via warranty) in the past 4 month's, trust me when I say this: The problems with the XBOX 360 RROD are still here, I hate this fact but it's true.

    Why only the other day ryan davis (previously with gamespot, now with giantbomb.com) on the giantbomb bombcast said he's now sent in his 5th XBOX 360, this guy is trusted through and through in this industry so if he's having problems then microsoft's RROD problem is still a problem.

    How many time's did I say problem then? lol.

  • BMWPro77

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 12:02 pm PT

    "ASG_ Posted Jan 15, 2009 9:59 am PT How the hell could that guy be right about anything?"

    Because it's his job to predict this stuff. While they are not always right these analysts are very very close.

  • ASG_

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 9:59 am PT

    How the hell could that guy be right about anything?

  • xElite_GameRx

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 8:44 am PT

    Wii is not even 250 anymore, its sold out in all the major retailers so its around an average of 350 to get one off ebay or craigslist. What a slap in the face to all PS3 owners who bought their console at 600 or 500.

  • ratm247

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 6:07 am PT

    sony needs to drop the ps2, or reduce the price to 50$ and make it a little kids starter system, push some learning games for it. kids can watch dvds and play games for 50$, theyd even have people buying them just to play dvds.

    most of all they need to return backward compatibility to the ps3 so they dont lose thier ps2 market to the 360. does anyone know if it is just a software issue, or the new ps3s lack hardware to play ps2 games?

  • bob1387

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 3:22 am PT

    IMDLEGEND, I just gave you a thumbs up solely because of your user photo.

  • IMDLEGEND

    Posted Jan 15, 2009 12:01 am PT

    The real question remains, how much longer will it take for the PS2 to drop to less than $100? This was predicted years ago.

  • PandaBear86

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 11:47 pm PT

    A PS3 costing $300 USD and Xbox 360 costing $250 would be a massive jump for the modern games industry (especially if they were slim-line consoles). PS2 would slowly get phased out if the current consoles were that cheap, and Wii would experience harsh competition due to aggressive pricing. Who WOULDN'T pay an extra $50 to get PS3 over Wii, considering the huge difference in graphics, online, Blu-ray and storage space?

  • REA24409

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 9:31 pm PT

    I think it is hilarious that all the XBox fanboys are giving thumbs down to people who are giving their opinions about the PS3. Here something for you XBox guys, I DON"T CARE WHICH SYSTEM SOLD THE MOST!! Are you going to start complaining about that now? The system that sold the most isn't automatically the better system it's the more popular one, is it not? The PS3's cell processor and it's blu-ray technology compared to the Xbox's DVD player... and... uhh.... that's about it. So go ahead and brag about being in second, I don't care if you are more popular, I still get the better system and some solid games are coming out this year. As Ricky Bobby said, "If you ain't first ya LAST!!"

  • funnysplay

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 3:32 pm PT

    Maybe ill get a PS3 around holidays, but i
    dont think ill get it this april when it drops a 100 bucks.
    But ill see.

  • guyvue

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 12:05 pm PT

    if so, i'll wait for Summer to come up to buy a new pro 360. $249.99+$299.99, great, should be $549.98+tax could be around $585 i bet.
    and a new PS3 as well.

  • squarejp

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 11:45 am PT

    smc8788,
    I love my PS3 backward compatibility. But there are sure some classics that I have missed and still haven't finished in PS2 such as FINAL FANTASY X, X-2 and XII. I haven't even finished Metal Gear Solid 3, Rogue Galaxy, Persona 3 FES and Persona 4. I still have a lot of PS2 games to complete so I definitely love the Backward Compatibility when I have the time.
    But I understand that you should look forward instead when you have played all the old ones.

  • MG_GEKKO

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 7:57 am PT

    @SPOONMAGIC - Well said and 'nough said.

  • bobthegoat2001

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 3:04 am PT

    What are they going to take out this time, Blu-ray?

  • smc8788

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 2:47 am PT

    I have a 60GB PS3 with backwards compatibility and I can say that I only used it to play PS2 games once, and never will again. They just look horrible on a high-def TV, especially compared to PS3 games. Get a damn job and buy PS3 games instead, or don't buy a PS3 at all, because you're clearly not making the use of it if you're only playing 5 year old standard def games. There's a reason why they hardly make any new games for PS2 any more (lacklustre ports aside).

  • skipper847

    Posted Jan 14, 2009 1:45 am PT

    does this price drop include in the UK as well?.

  • SPOONMAGIC

    Posted Jan 13, 2009 11:19 pm PT

    fan boys are so lame why do u bother turning every article on these websites into a console war. grow a pair

  • janderdarkmoon

    Posted Jan 13, 2009 7:49 pm PT

    HA! The PS3 nerfing continues. I'm glad I got mine when I did, even though at the moment it's only keeping my Wii(k) from being lonely.

  • viewtiful_jay

    Posted Jan 13, 2009 7:23 pm PT

    If the PS3 drops to $299, I will definitely get one. Provided they don't further gimp it between now and then.

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