Analyst: Spore to sell 2M, Warhammer OL 650K

Lazard's Colin Sebastian predicts big September openings for EA's evo-civo-aerospace sim and fantasy MMORPG.

In a GameSpot interview published last week, EA Games president Frank Gibeau declined to predict how well Spore would sell at launch. The subject of eager anticipation since it was unveiled at the 2005 Game Developers Conference, the latest game from Sims creator Will Wright aims to do it all. Players begin by guiding a cellular organism's evolution into a land creature--which then becomes sentient, builds a civilization, and begins exploring space.

Luckily, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian doesn't share Gibeau's reticence. In a report released this week, the games-industry expert predicted that Spore will be a massive hit, selling around 2 million copies in its first month on the market. Citing strong sales of Madden and a back-to-school gaming spike, Sebastian gave a "buy" rating to EA stock, which closed the day at $47.61.

Besides Spore, Sebastian also thinks another EA game will debut strong this month. According to his estimates, the massively multiplayer online role-playing game Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning will sell 650,000 units in the 13 days after its September 18 release. Such a launch would be on par with Funcom's Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures, which sold 400,000 units in the week after its release. That said, EA probably hopes that Warhammer Online's subscriber base won't flatline like Age of Conan, which added only 15,000 subscribers in four months after its launch.

77 Comments

  • RedStar

    Posted Oct 20, 2008 4:27 pm PT

    LOL at BloodMist.

  • BloodMist

    Posted Sep 27, 2008 10:59 am PT

    If Spore sells that much, which it probably will, then you're just convincing EA to continue their horrid copy protection schemes.That would not be good.

    Now, people calling WoW a trainwreck are they?How so, exactly?Back up your claims.PvP is dreadful?Why, because you simply suck at it?back up your claims as well, goddamn chumps.

  • brianpoetzel

    Posted Sep 27, 2008 3:35 am PT

    That's too bad. I really liked AoC.

  • Inconnux

    Posted Sep 17, 2008 5:07 pm PT

    I wont buy either. Spore is DRM rootkit rental game and WARs graphics look pre Everquest2. I can't see WAR being complete because it is an EA game... they are bound to ruin it.

  • halofan85

    Posted Sep 14, 2008 11:57 am PT

    In WAR you will be able to take capital cities...nuff said

  • jaybriboy

    Posted Sep 14, 2008 7:54 am PT

    Honestly, there really is no comparison to WoW for me. I've played WoW since Dec.2004 and it was fun but WAR is superior imo.

    I like the way that each class looks unique in comparison to the other classes. The armor graphics blow the graphics in WoW away. I was so tired of looking like a space age purple Tron clone on my pally. WoW reuses all of their armor skins to a nauseating degree and mismatches each classes skins. I wore a re-skinned Nemesis helm on my mage for instance.

    I will admit that, when I first entered WAR beta, I felt that the fighting style of my characters was somewhat awkward and foreign. After 1 month in beta I went back to WoW and tried to play my characters. They felt dull and boring. After 3.5 years and 5 level 70s I guess that is to be expected. I like the way that my WAR chosen feels heavy in his armor and I can hear his boots pounding into the ground. WAR is full of fantastic detail and an intricate style that WoW lacks.

    Yes, WAR does have very strict weapon restrictions but that is because they work very closely with Gamesworkshop in order to stay as true as possible to the Warhammer lore and aesthetic. Imo, lore is something that Blizzard improvises along the way. If you know anything about Warhammer lore then you will see that they have done a great job of building a world that accurately portrays this.

    Things I will miss about WoW:
    1)Flying mounts
    2)Pets (I find the WL lion and the Magus demons to be a little lacking in WAR)

    Things I will not miss about WoW:
    1)Looong repetitive flight paths 2)Long waits in the lfg queue
    3)Spamming lfg for a tank/healer for hours 4)Aweful armor models. I think some of the most ridiculous looking armor I have ever seen in a game has been in WoW. Hunter and pally gear has been the worst imo
    5)Virtually non-existent world pvp
    6)Doing the same 3 instanced pvp BGs from level 10-60 with one added at 70, over and over and over again
    7)Armor clipping. I have seen very little of this in WAR beta
    Bad graphics. I'm sorry but if you say that WoW has superior graphics or graphics that are on par with WAR you obviously have not turned the settings up and/or have a decent computer to run both games on. I run both games on the highest setting and WoW does not hold a candle to WAR.

    I do think that WoW is a good game but WAR is the first game that has impressed me enough to make me want to take a break from WoW if not quit the game all together. I hope this game gets the recognition it deserves.

    Sorry for the wall of text.

  • Vargre666

    Posted Sep 13, 2008 1:42 pm PT

    One thing im NOT saying is "dont play it." Hell, Im going to play it. I agree, WoW is basically a has been. That being said...my complaint is with all the hype EA built up for Warhammer and it just didnt deliver. And your going to find the same problems in WAR, crafting problems, character classes being over/under powered, etc. in WAR as well. I think that as well as UI's, another common thread with MMO's are the same problems. You hear the same thing in AoC, WoW, WAR, LoTR...you get the idea.

  • Leemayn

    Posted Sep 13, 2008 9:42 am PT

    1) What dauminator2337 says is true.

    2) Even if WAR's gameplay was literally identical to WoW 4 years ago, I would prefer it. WoW is falling apart. Like other MMOs before it, the game systems and sub-game systems have become a train wreck with no logical connection. Economy, broken. Class system, broken. Tradeskills, broken. Itemization, broken. PvP, still broken. It simply isn't fun to do almost anything anymore. Time for a reboot.

  • dauminator2337

    Posted Sep 12, 2008 5:36 am PT

    I don't care how much WAR is "like" WoW. WoW PvP was dreadful, absolutely dreadful. WoW is for the PvE crowd and that's fine. Bring me more PvP and less dungeon humping and I'll be happy.

  • Vargre666

    Posted Sep 11, 2008 7:13 pm PT

    What im going to write, ive a feeling many people will disagree with me. So be it. It needs to be said. WAR isnt much different than WoW. Period. I read one of the guys from Ten Ton i think, a blog or review, where he addressed the issue of WoW vs WAR and said basically, theyre both cars (meaning both MMO'S)...WoW is like a Toyota Camry, and WAR is like a Koenigsegg CRR. (he used different vehicles but you get the idea. WoW is old, slow, been there done that and WAR is new, sleek and totally "pwnz") In truth, WoW might be a Camry, but WAR is nothing more than a Corolla. Same breed, same thing. There is nothing really new or innovative with WAR. The AI is sadly redundant. You fight the same way, mashing buttons, waiting for cooldowns, pulling one mob away from the other so YOU can mob it. The loot is the same, socketed weapons and armour to upgrade, tons of vendor trash, etc. (and sadly the same through lvls. My Witch Elf (ive been playing since closed beta) knives never changed during 8 lvls. They can ONLY fight with knives, never anything else. And the knives look the same constantly. Maybe a different coloured hilt if your lucky. Other characters have more options, my Greenskin has a two handed axe, but compared to WoW, well...there isnt a comparison. WoW is much more dynamic when it comes to your character looking good. THeir arguement? WAR was meant to be fun, not look good. Wtf is that supposed to mean? It cant be both??!) If youve played WoW you know the deal. The WAR system for craft/ gathering if anything, is far worse than WoW. It takes forever to cultivate herbs to make into potions. In beta so far, for salvaging, used with Talisman making, there is hardly anything to salvage. The only craft/ gather worth having in beta is cultivate and pots. It IS cool that you can make volatile pots that could possibly backfire in WAR but having to run around with the cult. screen open for like 6 mins, making sure you put each part where it goes and when, doesnt make you feel like your immersed in the game as much as makes you feel your indulging in some redundant grind. Oi...ok, theres no way im going to cover every comparison here, although at some point i may try and post that somewhere...but the basic fact of the matter; WAR has some innovative, nice things to it. The rvr is good and easy, getting a quest group is nicely done. The graphics are on par but not any better than WoW's. Just a different style. But all in all, your not missing out on anything major if you dont go to WAR. WoW has just as many pluses, and minuses. The big factor for me as that I have been a life long fan of GWS, playing Warhammer 40k and fantasy tabletop, as well as the RPG as well as every video game that they have been associated with (going back to Shadow of the Horned Rat)and with all the hype (that wasnt delivered; they scrapped several classes, they did not deliver on innovative new AI and combat system, they got rid of physical changes with lvling, i.e. orks growing larger as they level, dwarf beards growing longer, etc)I feel profoundly disappointed. WAR is a good game, it is. I can see it succeeding to a certain extent. Will it compete with WoW? Maybe initially. Will it compete with the next gen MMO's? Highly doubt it. Theres simply nothing really new with WAR. Its the same thing in a different package, nothing more, nothing less. (sorry about Wall of Text; ive been trying to edit it for the past 10 mins and it wont change.)

  • KelsieKatt

    Posted Sep 11, 2008 12:01 pm PT

    2bitSmOkEy:"its all been done many times before and almost all of it from wow."

    Really? Realm vs Realm warfare was invented by World of Warcraft? Because I could have sworn that World of Warcraft was a PvE based game, with hardly any actual PvP content in it.

    All that heavy focus on Team-Focused Realm vs Realm content must have been so well integrated into World of Warcraft's PvE Gear Grind, that I didn't even know it was there, amazing.

    Thanks for showing me the light.

    That also must mean that since Warhammer Online is based primarily off of Dark Age of Camelot, which was created before World of Warcraft was even in development, that Mythic Entertainment used a time machine to steal Blizzard's ideas long before they were even invented --- It all makes sense now!

  • Excalibur2006

    Posted Sep 11, 2008 10:52 am PT

    2bitSmOkEy "its all been done many times before and almost all of it from wow."

    Your an idiot!! Warhammer has been around A LOT longer than Warcraft, so if anyone ripped of anyone its warcraft from warhammer.

  • 2bitSmOkEy

    Posted Sep 10, 2008 12:52 pm PT

    cipher92 "but I am just looking for a fresh and new environment)" LOL.........you wont find even a passing resemblance of fresh or new environments here....not even the box is creatively new. its all been done many times before and almost all of it from wow.

  • Cipher92

    Posted Sep 9, 2008 12:27 pm PT

    I've Played in both Closed and Open beta now, and War definitely is a solid game, their game play keeps improving as the beta progresses.

    Also to anyone saying that Warhammer Online is a Clone of WoW remember this fact. The original Warcraft Orcs and Humans RTS game was originally commissioned to be a Warhammer RTS game however they lost the contract and converted it to being called Warcraft Orcs and Humans. So if you look at it from the very beginning, WOW, or warcraft as a whole is really the clone. (and I am not dising or putting WoW down in any respect, I love the game, it was great while I played it, but I am just looking for a fresh and new environment)

  • xSleignx

    Posted Sep 8, 2008 7:22 pm PT

    WAR, in my opinion, has the potential to kill WoW. They have there own universe which started loooong before the warcraft universe, and wont end up being some lame ass WoW copy. They also took the things that WoW made completely boring and repetitive (both PvP and PvE) and made it exciting. Im not saying World of Warcraft isnt a good game, because it sure as hell isnt. It just took the MMO market by storm, and started a whole new idea of MMORPGs. I also think that WAR could quite possibly end the whole "raiding with 11 year olds" crap that WoW sadly brought up.

  • Crazyeye78

    Posted Sep 5, 2008 2:47 pm PT

    Wow Aura, your post was filled with so many facts and links I can't help but agree....

  • aura_enchanted

    Posted Sep 5, 2008 9:59 am PT

    all i can say is this, Warhammer online is not an mmo i do not recognize it as such. it is simply a WoW clone that learned from the mistakes of the origional it was based on. i give it a week before wow becomes vacant because all the people who thing WoW is the bomb move over. and then piss n moan cause there 8 year old pc cant run it.

  • Ironmike1981

    Posted Sep 5, 2008 8:20 am PT

    I have played WAR in beta and PV weekend. This game is outstanding, especially if you love PvP. I hope it kicks WoW in the jimmy.

  • Sentinel3dsm

    Posted Sep 5, 2008 12:52 am PT

    i already got it... I live in europe... and i can say WOW!
    awsome game...

  • Waximizer

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 7:02 pm PT

    And by the way, Jaqknife, yea the fantasy theme is getting old, and its age is polishing it beautifully, thanks God.

  • Waximizer

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 6:58 pm PT

    Warhammer Online will have a glorious reign.

  • Tinz

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 2:16 pm PT

    Spore will flop. It's a DRM infested, limited activation game rental with spyware.

  • ninn1000

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 2:06 pm PT

    How did GS give it a f!@#ing 8.0!!! I hope it isn't that bad...

  • blueliquidplus

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 1:57 pm PT

    I doubt a 2M sales record for spore, but I do believe it will be high. Warhammer from what I've seen doesn't overly interest me... might give it a try but was hoping for more of a 40K setting =D

    And Spores DRM/SecuRom setting of 3 installs works fine, after 3 installs call EA and they reset it for you... still really stupid but I wouldn't call it broken.

  • connorb93

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 1:05 pm PT

    i kinda want to buy ea stock, honestly
    and btw, most of you guys are f'in stupid
    spore is gonna be the schizz; and definitely not shallow or anything else like that. Wait and see

  • Lord_Regnier

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 12:58 pm PT

    Spore looks good but i just can't see it selling 2M in it's first month.

  • HufflePuff-TLH

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 12:40 pm PT

    I realy hope they are gonna keep WAR "up to date" with patches, bug fix'es and new content. And i realy realy hope they did not rush it to much..

  • jazzyrider

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 12:33 pm PT

    I think Spore is over hyped. I wasn't impressed watching it at PAX.

  • canuter posted Sep 4, 2008 12:03 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. login to show)

    canuter

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 12:03 pm PT (hide)

    Substract 1 buyer from that 2M. I don't buy games broken on purpose (aka 3 activation limit).

  • SrTVBR

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 11:48 am PT

    Funcom is responsible to make Age of Conan so crap. They don´t patch the game.

  • Jaqknife

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 11:47 am PT

    Where's the WAR in Warcraft? I think the guys at Mythic found it in the trashcan behind Blizzard's studio and put it into Warhammer. Seriously If you haven't played Warhammer then don't slam it. Warhammer is so different than Wow. From the very begining you have a sense that there is an ongoing never ending war that you are thrown into. About 90% of the game is PVP. I would like to see a game that does break away from the character classes mold and goes with a more skill based system instead. Plus the Fantasy theme is getting a bit old.

    Aside from those 2 things I think Warhammer will do well.

  • fantalio posted Sep 4, 2008 11:25 am PT (does not meet display criteria. login to show)

    fantalio

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 11:25 am PT (hide)

    warhammer will fail, all hail darkfall!

  • MC_Raptor

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 11:03 am PT

    @ brunorr i kind of half agree with you!
    I do hope t will be a good game, but surely that is the point of the mmorpg genre? it's an rpg, so its is more or less predefined as you take the role of that character! In the begining you would turn left or riight? oh no you fell down a hole! thats just how it is!

    @ KelsieKatt even the grpahics arn't similar, way advanced over the wow ones! Download some of trents moves at textwall.blogspot.com they are class graphics for an mmo

  • u8nogard

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 10:59 am PT

    I look forward to giving Spore a chance... especially on the Wii.

  • rahl247

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 9:21 am PT

    icebeam17

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 8:22 am PT

    Yes, because 10 million people continue to pay to play a game they think is boring, definitely means gamespot is on the take jeopardizing their objectivity (*sigh). I'm going to check out warhammer and spore myself and while i think spore will prob get old after a month or so, i hope WAR will last a while

    of this 10 million only 3 million are from the US,Euro, and oceanic the rest are from asia.
    so those numbers are very bloated to make it seem better then it really is.

  • rahl247

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 9:19 am PT

    problem with darkfall they just ditched 1/2 or 3/4 of the content to start over i read somewhere. seems they are having their own problems do not be suprised to see it being canceled.

  • brunorr

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 9:06 am PT

    I hope WAR turns out to be a good game, but for me it's the same old leveling mmo as millions out there with a RvR flavor. Like AoC is the same as WOW with a Conan theme. Aren't you guys tired of leveling up your character and playing with predefined classes? I'm really looking forward a game called Darkfall, which promises freedom for character development. It's sad no big game company is willing to try new ideas for mmos.

  • akchase47

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 8:39 am PT

    EA games has nothing to do with Black and White, go complain to microsoft studios, who bought out lionhead studios a few years ago.

  • icebeam17

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 8:22 am PT

    Yes, because 10 million people continue to pay to play a game they think is boring, definitely means gamespot is on the take jeopardizing their objectivity (*sigh). I'm going to check out warhammer and spore myself and while i think spore will prob get old after a month or so, i hope WAR will last a while

  • Ztoky

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 8:12 am PT

    @ DullBozer You are so right

  • MC_Raptor

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 8:02 am PT

    Ok for all you "wow endorse gamestop" believers! I found this website that shows of war for what it really is... fantastic, I am more hyped about this than I was for wow!
    textwall.blogspot.com he's got loads of ingame footage and sort of explanations about the game, the graphics are fantastic, the depth is huge! only 40 levels? try 120 more or less, with 80 renown levels and 40 character levels. guild levels!!!! armour colour customisation! it's gunna be sick!!! Realm vs Realm? OMG!!! come on lets all go play war!
    as for the analysist?! this game has had 850,000 beta applications? thats beta alone, its sold out of nealry 150,000 special editions already! thats more than 500,000 players.

  • thetankfrank

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 7:01 am PT

    Its pretty obvious GameSpot gets paid to endorse WoW. Thats why you see soo many things about WOTLK when WoW is outdated and boring. I have my hopes up for Warhammer, would be nice to see a good game for once. As for Spore, looks real cool. Doubt as much depth as even Black and White, so I would rather see a B&W sequel then Spore. But who knows, it may turn out to be good. I'm betting Warhammer tops Spores sales though.

  • atopp399

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 6:29 am PT

    I might give Warhammer a shot based on player reviews once it comes out. There is too much hype to make an informed decision right now though.

  • halosniper52

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 6:29 am PT

    "Sins-of-Mosin"

    You need to go READ some full reviews about the game before u talk ur half right there but not really.

  • Sins-of-Mosin

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 6:25 am PT

    The truth about Spore is finally coming out, it's a shallow game thats ok but not mind blowing like the hype said it would be. And no, it shouldn't even be a contender for Game of the Year.

  • halosniper52

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 6:17 am PT

    Spore is going to sell out soooo fast. Be harder to find spore than a wii lol.

  • Zennious

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 5:57 am PT

    Amen DullBozer

  • DullBozer

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 5:27 am PT

    Me: Spore to sell 3M, Warhammer OL 500K

    See how easy it is to be an analyst? doesn't even matter wether im right or not, im an analyst!

    Can't believe people get paid for throwing rough estimations around.

  • Cpt_Pugwash

    Posted Sep 4, 2008 3:46 am PT

    Well WAR has almost 900,000 signed up for the beta so I would assume strong sales from that.

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