Analysts expect April sales surge

Grand Theft Auto IV launch projected to spike retail software numbers; Sebastian pegs growth of at least 70 percent, Pachter predicts whopping 113 percent.

It's not uncommon for industry analysts to disagree when it comes to monthly NPD predictions, but they're usually in the same ballpark. However, when assessing numbers on the scale of the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto IV, those small disagreements get amplified.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter have released their NPD predictions in investors' notes this week, and the pair's growth prognostications vary by 43 percent. While Sebastian predicted software sales growth of "at least" a sky-high 70 percent, Pachter projected growth of 113 percent.

Both analysts noted the obvious Grand Theft Auto IV as the primary sales driver, as well as Mario Kart for the Wii. Pachter also pointed to the two new Pokemon Mystery Dungeon games on the DS as strong performers in the new release category, while Sebastian expected the PlayStation 3 retail-or-downloadable racer Gran Turismo 5: Prologue to turn out a strong performance in stores.

The strength of Grand Theft Auto IV wasn't the only topic on which the pair agreed. Both analysts also expected dueling rhythm games Guitar Hero III and Rock Band to continue lighting up the sales charts. On top of that, Sebastian said the next few months looked promising for the industry, but added that growth comparisons will get more difficult later in the year. Pachter likewise warned investors to expect more modest growth levels later in the year.

47 Comments

  • rynmls

    Posted May 19, 2008 5:09 pm PT

    crisis core didn't sell that well? this will really be the end of psp...

  • darknferno12

    Posted May 15, 2008 4:03 pm PT

    mmmm.....prediction about April 2 weeks into May, expecting a sales surge only when the biggest game of the year was launched and was said to be a record breaker HOW DO THEY DO IT their predictions are better than Miss Cleo and their smarter than your average bear!!!

  • bourne2live

    Posted May 15, 2008 9:48 am PT

    well obviously , they released a GTA title

  • nunes123

    Posted May 15, 2008 8:16 am PT

    GTA IV beats any other game ever!!!!!

    sorry for all the people who think differently but its just my opinion

  • Dagamemonkey

    Posted May 14, 2008 5:24 pm PT

    GTA IV has owned, it is owning, and it will continue to own.

  • CageFury

    Posted May 14, 2008 2:45 pm PT

    Screw this overrated piece of garbage that is GTAiV. GTAIV is awesome!

  • ashuncc2

    Posted May 14, 2008 10:18 am PT

    Hhmmm, I guess GTA did sell a few copies.

  • kavadias1981

    Posted May 14, 2008 9:17 am PT

    April was last month... doh

  • metalkid9

    Posted May 14, 2008 5:46 am PT

    screw sebastian who ever the hell he is, gta4 destroyed every single game in the market!!

  • ketsuatama

    Posted May 14, 2008 4:04 am PT

    A no-brainer but they still draw a salary; wish I had their jobs!

  • lextexrex

    Posted May 14, 2008 12:59 am PT

    I predict high PS3 hardware sales in June. *cough* MGS4 bundle *cough*

  • justfei

    Posted May 14, 2008 12:15 am PT

    lol @ analysts

  • Jebril

    Posted May 13, 2008 11:10 pm PT

    No!!! GTA's gonna come out and nothing'll happen! >.

  • Evz0rz

    Posted May 13, 2008 10:03 pm PT

    I like how they use the word "expect" as if it isn't completely obvious.

  • pencilpusher69

    Posted May 13, 2008 9:45 pm PT

    artson1966 "Will be an interesting month with the NPD numbers this week. I am really curious on how Sony and MS did on the hardware sales on teh back of GTA4. I see it sure helped Europe out with PS3 sales. If it helped Sony in the states it wont be by much. Either way more user base means more and better games for the black beast. Sure would make me happy.
    "

    PS3 Hardware boost for the month were less than 30 percent, if I recall right. Xbox360 under 70 percent. Wii 420 percent. (760,000 systems sold, for the second month in a row. Insane.)

  • Tremblay343

    Posted May 13, 2008 9:16 pm PT

    If someone actually pays them to do this, tell me where i can sign up. Like come on, how obvious is all this?

  • DullBozer

    Posted May 13, 2008 9:08 pm PT

    How do i become an analyst?? its so easy and it doesn't really matter whether your right or wrong, its the perfect job!

    I predict that sales will drop in may. I predict they will go up again when Fable 2, Gow 2 and Gaiden 2 are released. I predict that one system will sell more then another in America but that doesn't even matter cos we will all have chosen our systems by then. God...

  • mysterylobster

    Posted May 13, 2008 8:54 pm PT

    Gamespot relies far too heavily on these analysts, especially the ubiquitous Michael Pachter, in their news section.

  • ShastyMacNasty

    Posted May 13, 2008 7:54 pm PT

    How about this... When the next GTA comes out, it will break the records again, and guess what? That months sales will surge also.
    Can i Have a corner office with a 7 figure income now too?
    At least I'm doing it years ahead of time.

  • artson1966

    Posted May 13, 2008 6:53 pm PT

    Will be an interesting month with the NPD numbers this week. I am really curious on how Sony and MS did on the hardware sales on teh back of GTA4. I see it sure helped Europe out with PS3 sales. If it helped Sony in the states it wont be by much. Either way more user base means more and better games for the black beast. Sure would make me happy.

  • ctg867

    Posted May 13, 2008 6:42 pm PT

    NO!!! YA ****ING THINK????!?!?!?!

    Biggest game in the last 10 years, by far, comes out for two platforms, breaks just about every record you can, and you say "we expect a surge" . Well no ****ing duh.

  • taj7575

    Posted May 13, 2008 5:49 pm PT

    wow. these seriously must be the smartest analysts in the world. WHO in their right mind would think that in a month with one of the mot anticipated games out, there would be a huge surge in sales?

    who, i beg to ask; who? (sarcasm)

  • normsta

    Posted May 13, 2008 5:16 pm PT

    I can't believe this article is here.
    Anyone that knows anything about the gamming industry could have predicted this. Better yet i ain't predicting, i'm saying that it will have risen. those analyst should be shot.

  • nate1222

    Posted May 13, 2008 5:14 pm PT

    I'm going to get thumbed down to Hell for this, but...
    I've played GTAIV and I actually like San Andreas better. At $60 you're getting a game that's not as fun nor large in scale as a $20 equivelant. GTAIV will sell on its NAME ALONE. That goes for Halo 3 as well. Nonetheless, one damn game isn't going to float an entire industry. I don't think GTAIV will sell like San Andreas did simply because far less people own PS3 or 360 than PS2 and XBox. And, of course, word's getting around regarding the 'disappointments' with GTAIV. I also don't think that the next GTA game will fair as well as SA nor IV.

  • pencilpusher69

    Posted May 13, 2008 4:44 pm PT

    The real story will be the 420% spike in Wii sales the week of GTAIV, versus the roughly 70% spike the 360 recieved.

    Can't wait until the time 2-3 years from now, when Mario Kart laps GTAIV in sales.

    Fun times!

  • Adam_the_Nerd

    Posted May 13, 2008 4:16 pm PT

    "Grand Theft Auto IV launch projected to spike retail software numbers"
    isn't this really old new? why are these predictions and projections for April being posted now... in May? ahaha

  • Razzi65

    Posted May 13, 2008 4:12 pm PT

    very disappointing game....
    i remember when san andreas was released we were saying that WHT ROCKSTAR GONNA PUT IN NEXT GTA?? IT MUST BE PETS OR SOMETHING HUGE... but u know.. they eliminate so many fun factors from previous gta's ....too bad

  • lordmarkitgs

    Posted May 13, 2008 4:05 pm PT

    I think anyone who is old enough to hold a game controller in their hands could have predicted GTA IV would break records.. I think everyone has heard of the GTA series after GTA 3 was released.

  • darkride66

    Posted May 13, 2008 3:50 pm PT

    I found a site before that listed Michael Pachter's predictions and, surprisingly enough, the majority of the predictions he makes turn out to be true.

  • AsianG0d

    Posted May 13, 2008 3:05 pm PT

    This is great news for me after hearing about the tragedy in China

  • Phazevariance

    Posted May 13, 2008 3:04 pm PT

    I predict that the sun will rise again tomorrow morning and set yet again in the evening. ... thats about how hard the analysts job is

  • IKRITaiNT

    Posted May 13, 2008 2:31 pm PT

    sales up in April, really, do they pay these analysts to figure this out. I predict a surge of ps3 sales when mgs4 hits, now send me a pay check!

  • cooldude03

    Posted May 13, 2008 2:29 pm PT

    let me see GTA IV world record for sales. Now these analysts are predicting high sales. I wonder if they have job openings. Anybody can do that job. By the way Metal Gear Solid 4 and Gears of War 2 are going to have high sales. There you go, now where can I pick up my check?

  • SolidusHo

    Posted May 13, 2008 2:28 pm PT

    Didn't that dumbass pachter say that gta4 would flop? and that it would be the downfall of taketwo?

  • gatsbythepig

    Posted May 13, 2008 2:26 pm PT

    Pachter is a fool, why does anyone listen to this guy? Of course the game will spike sales, but 113%... no freaking way. I expect to see a stagnation amongst all consoles soon. There are still great games coming out but now that next-gen has become this gen, the dust has settled, the excitement has waned and only big titles are helping they are not going to keep stocks rising. Christmas will help greatly but we won't have another year like this for a few years.

  • Pete5506

    Posted May 13, 2008 2:04 pm PT

    The game is good, I could see that happing

  • JGoWild

    Posted May 13, 2008 1:57 pm PT

    No...Not Patcher again, even though its a good news......

  • zeeshan810

    Posted May 13, 2008 1:29 pm PT

    GOoooo GTA IV Iv ivvvvvvvvvvvv*

  • zeeshan810

    Posted May 13, 2008 1:27 pm PT

    Because of GTA IV the April sale went up go GTA IV

  • onlineps2player

    Posted May 13, 2008 1:12 pm PT

    These "Analysts" are wise. really wise indeed....

  • bgres077

    Posted May 13, 2008 1:10 pm PT

    With the recent blockbusters of SSBB, GTA IV, and now Mario Kart Wii, I would expect sales to slow in a few months.

  • Nineball2112

    Posted May 13, 2008 1:04 pm PT

    I think that saying April sales surged is a pretty safe prediction.

  • okassar

    Posted May 13, 2008 12:59 pm PT

    Ya everyone's who didn't hear about GTAIV yet is probably going to decide to buy it if they have a 360 or PS3.That=even more cash than Rockstar already racked in.Plus,it's getting close to summer so people are figuring out they'll have more time now and are buying more games.And just so you who are confused about this know, when they expect surge in April,that means the results didn't come in yet and they are expecting what the data will add up to.

  • galerian86

    Posted May 13, 2008 12:58 pm PT

    "Analysts expect April sales surge"

    How do you "expect" something that already happened?

  • darkride66

    Posted May 13, 2008 12:58 pm PT

    "Analysts expect April sales surge"
    Ya think?

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