Analyst predicts 3-4M Wii Fit Americans in '08

Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst says $40 million marketing blitz will propel Nintendo's virtual trainer to multiplatinum sales in the US by end of the year.

Upon release in Japan last December, Wii Fit was greeted by the reception Nintendo was hoping for, with more than 1 million units of the game being sold in its first week on the market. More than just an opening-week sensation, Nintendo's fitness simulation has proven to have legs of its own, having sold more than 1.75 million units in Japan through March 27, according to Japanese stat trackers Media Create. Not a bad tally, considering roughly 5 million Wiis are in Japanese consumers' living rooms, as of January.

With Nintendo's fitness craze having taken firm hold in the publisher's home turf, industry watchers are now turning their eyes to the game's debut in larger markets, namely the US, where more than 9 million Wiis have been sold. Speaking to the New York Post, pervasive Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter said that Wii Fit sales in 2008 could rank alongside 2007 top sellers such as Microsoft's Halo 3 and Activision's Call of Duty 4.

"Wii Fit will sell 3 million to 4 million in the US if they market aggressively," said Pachter to the Post. Pachter also reiterated statements he made in an investor's note early this month, saying that sources have told him that Nintendo is gearing up for its most aggressive marketing campaign ever, with a budget that could top out at $40 million. In comparison, Microsoft's much-hyped Halo 3 reportedly carried a $10 million marketing price tag.

91 Comments

  • wiidominance

    Posted Apr 15, 2008 2:46 pm PT

    @ bardkieran:

    "I love how people are like "I go to a gym, so I won't be getting this" or "Go outside and exercise instead of getting Wii Fit"... I'm a guitarist but I still play Guitar Hero 3, and I am in a band but still play Rock Band. So, if you are a football player are you not going to play Madden? Stop it already. People who ACTUALLY like to exercise would love to have Wii Fit, as it would be another way to enjoy what their passion is."

    Finally !!! Someone talking some sense, I must say, some gamers have really really shallow minds, and whats written above explains the reality behind Wii fit, if the price dropped, I will be getting it. However, seeing how this thing might sell like crack, it seems unlikely it will get any price cut anytime soon. So might as well take the plunge .... or maybe not, we'll have to see .. hehe ..

  • happyhappyman1

    Posted Apr 7, 2008 9:16 pm PT

    i think this is cool cause people get kinda addicted to videogames... so they would maybe play this alot and get exercise...also there arent just fitness games theres others. its like wii sports in a way. and there will also be other games(at least 10) that will use the balance board.

  • KAISERKONG

    Posted Apr 5, 2008 10:56 pm PT

    Sadly, some of us simply don't have the time to go to a gym. With kids in the house, cooking and cleaning to be done, extra-curricular activities, shopping and so on...it's easy to see how little time most Americans might have and with a video game system already in the house to entertain the kids, an investment of $80 for the game is a small price to pay to get into the action with the kids.

    I run and work out regularly, but my wife and I are really looking forward to this release so we can do this together.

  • Gash-Bell

    Posted Apr 5, 2008 9:34 pm PT

    This looks okay. But people who would rather goto a gym aren't the audience Nintendo is try to attract. The ones they are trying to attract are the REAL gamers. Who would like to get "fit" at their own houses using their Wii. Not the kind who want to go outside and get real exercise. Besides, I'm not even sure if it will work. Looks like another **** Mini-game collection to me.

  • majidok

    Posted Apr 3, 2008 12:10 pm PT

    Wow that was some hard prediction ! Michael Pachter must be nostradamuses grand grand son ! Oh and isn't he the same guy predicting that EAs offer for take-two is actually good ? Lol . Calling no-brainers and mis-calling other no-brainers . Way to go !

  • bardkieran

    Posted Apr 3, 2008 6:07 am PT

    I love how people are like "I go to a gym, so I won't be getting this" or "Go outside and exercise instead of getting Wii Fit"... I'm a guitarist but I still play Guitar Hero 3, and I am in a band but still play Rock Band. So, if you are a football player are you not going to play Madden? Stop it already. People who ACTUALLY like to exercise would love to have Wii Fit, as it would be another way to enjoy what their passion is.

  • daqua_99 Site moderator

    Posted Apr 3, 2008 12:28 am PT

    No real surprise ... I think that anyone could say that Wii Fit would sell a lot

  • xcollector

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 11:29 pm PT

    I really don't care about the board for the purpose of exercise. WiiFit won't make you fit, just tired. When a bunch of really good games come out that use the board I might consider getting it then.

  • pastree

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 11:06 pm PT

    i weight lift, and that's enough for me. if this thing is cardiovascular and aerobic though, i might buy it cuz i suck at running

  • salman06p0020

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 10:32 pm PT

    I go to the gym and will keep going to the gym all through my life but that does not stop me from buying this thing. I am going to buy it on day one of its release.

  • retrofraction12

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 8:07 pm PT

    IT does not seem as powerfull as the nes power pad, LOL

  • chibi-acer

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 4:14 pm PT

    I definitely want one, though I wonder how hard it will be to get.

  • decrot

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 3:10 pm PT

    holy crap, 40million campaign.
    i though i was gonna throw up from halo 3 being everywhere.

  • ctg867

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 1:30 pm PT

    I wouldn't be surprised, but it's a sad day when a game like that sells 3-4 million copies in a little more then half a year.

  • Rod90

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 12:54 pm PT

    I hope this game makes you do real exercise.

  • Erebus

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 11:05 am PT

    I am definitely calling BS on the $40 million dollar marketing budget.

  • deadkingdg posted Apr 2, 2008 10:41 am PT (does not meet display criteria. login to show)

    deadkingdg

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 10:41 am PT (hide)

    jjdomo
    The US spends billions of dollars a year on fitness products . . . Wii Fit will be another one that people will gobble up. Think about it, all these "non-traditional" gamers will think, "Wow, i can play a game AND get exercise? All without leaving the comfort of my own home?" they will scoop it right off the shelves.

    No, they'll order it online, because they're too lazy to go out, and right after, they'll finish their 2l of pepsi and their pizza. Irony for the win!

    Sadly, I can see this selling well. But I'm happy not to be one of them.

  • jjdomo

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 9:59 am PT

    The US spends billions of dollars a year on fitness products . . . Wii Fit will be another one that people will gobble up. Think about it, all these "non-traditional" gamers will think, "Wow, i can play a game AND get exercise? All without leaving the comfort of my own home?" they will scoop it right off the shelves.

    For all you people saying, "I'd rather go to the gym or go outside" then guess what? You are not the target audience and most people in the US are not like you. Most people would rather not do any of that. I don't know about 4 million copies, but I'm sure Wii fit will be successful over here.

  • VenomRitual

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 9:12 am PT

    40 million budget? i don't see this selling well. i'd rather just go to my gym or just run for cardio.

  • oli54321

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 9:03 am PT

    'This IS NOT JAPAN !!!! It will not sell as well here.....all artificial hype for the US MARKET......'

    American is the fattest country in the world, somehow I see it selling well

  • p0rkp1e74

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 9:00 am PT

    should be interesting to see how it works out america and gets more lazy people to buy a Wii.

  • pigman239

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 8:52 am PT

    what is the appeal of this game? go to the gym for an hour or two then play a real video game that isn't stupid. am i just not the target demographic? i honestly can't see myself ever playing this game.

  • zeecorner

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 8:42 am PT

    wow, this game is a joke. GO OUTSIDE.
    Just another garbage mini-game compilation for my wii, I still need to play smah bros though! That game looks legit

  • Fondness

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 8:17 am PT

    Fine.

  • catsimboy

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:53 am PT

    Too bad it's about as strenuous an exercise as sneezing.

  • LosDaddie

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:48 am PT

    The Wii continues its dominance

  • litewo

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:33 am PT

    "litewo, the terrible outcome you're describing is already caused by another, much more pervasive device, the scale!"

    Some people with an eating disorder may have developed it by constant use of a scale, yes. But not many scales turn weight loss into the obsessive tracking we see in Wii Fit:

    http://farm1.static.flickr.com/158/358979868_6a9b23266b.jpg

    And to top it off, the Wii Fit doesn't even seem to provide a good workout.

  • smbius

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:31 am PT

    I'm getting this. There's going to be a ton of Wii Fit commercials on NBC's Biggest Loser.

  • Toadster17

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:28 am PT

    Pachter is an idiot. I don't care how much they pay him or who thinks his word is golden. The man is just guessing and doing a poor job at that. I know teenagers who could do a better job of making predictions on the game market.

  • Toadster17

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:27 am PT

    Pachter is an idiot. I don't care how much they pay him or who thinks his word is golden. The man is just guessing and doing a poor job at that. I know teenagers who could do a better job of making predictions on the game market.

  • 4quarters

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:16 am PT

    This IS NOT JAPAN !!!! It will not sell as well here.....all artificial hype for the US MARKET......

  • adultgamer77

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 7:06 am PT

    Re: Oloryn "I think that Wii Fit is an amazing idea. Admittedly, I grew up with extremely poor priorities regarding my health and found my way up to around 260lbs at age 18...my confidence was beyond low, and there was NO way you'd see me exercise outdoors or at a gym where I would be greeted by fit people who would only make fun of me for trying something healthy for once...I didn't have Wii Fit back then, so I turned to DDR. It was fun and was a nice way to exercise in the security of my own home where nobody would discourage me from trying to change my poor health...

    ...I lost 75 lbs.

    Sure, now I love the gym, and I love the outdoors and staying fit and healthy, but when you AREN'T that way to begin with, its tough to find a way out of that depressing rut, and I think that any method of trying to assist someone with a health problem should only be greeted with praise. In fact, just from a humanity and civilization standpoint, I think its positive to hear, for once, that more money is being spent promoting something healthy rather than something that has you sit on the couch all day."

    Good for you man. I do agree with you that if you're not use to physical activity and do decide to do something about it, it is harder for you to get into it much less make a commitment by going to the gym. Part of it is that if your not mentally ready, the depressing rutt will prevent u from going there especially being around those health-nuts. It will prevent u from going and I know because I felt the same way.

    I think people are missing the bigger picture here, Wii Fit is not a replacement for working out/physical activity, but a way to jump start your physical activities mentally....a start in the "right" direction.

    P.S. Don't weigh yourself, I think it is a mental set back...if your not loosing what you think you or a trainer think should, it discourages u and if you are loosing, you tend to get relaxed and go back to bad eating habits or take longer breaks from oysical activity.

    Btw. if anyone wants some tips on making working out fun with it not feeling like a workout...email me and I'll be glad to share info with you.

  • deadkingdg

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 6:57 am PT

    chikahiro94
    Not to mention the weather isn't good everywhere all year 'round, and given its interactive nature that might be more motivating for people than watching an exercise DVD.

    Weather is not excuse to be innactive. I live in Quebec and we have very cold winters. You might not like going outside much when it is cold, I don't like it either. But staying healthy is very easy. There's just so many little things you can do.

    Drink a lot of water.
    In the subway, use the normal stairs.
    Don't eat junk between meals.
    If you're watching TV, why don't you do some sit-ups, push-ups during the commercials?
    This can even be applied for games! Finished the stage? Do some sit-ups!

    For those still at school, most schools offer a lot of different sports, for free or very cheap, outside of class times. When I was at college, I was going at the pool anytime I had an hour break and the pool was open.

    It's easy to play hours of videgames a day and have a six pack, without having to pay for anything, since most things I mentionned are free!

  • wiifan001

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 6:48 am PT

    This is going to be the biggest game for the casual / nongamers.
    It will also sell well with the hardcore gamers too.

  • Rect_Pola

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 6:40 am PT

    This will probably do well; especially with non-gamers who are less repulsed by the "it's not a game"ness of such apps.

  • deadkingdg

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 6:39 am PT

    I will not buy that. I'm a gamer and I play some sports regularly enough. I don't need a game to stay slim. If I want to move, I'll go out, thanks anyway, Nintendo. Now work on a new Zelda or something. You know, something that is a game?

  • WR_Platinum

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 6:36 am PT

    It better not to judge on something that you never tried.

  • bannermanner

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 6:03 am PT

    And I will not be one of them.

    Actually, I don't even know if I will still have my Wii by the end of 2008!

  • PiNwOrM

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 5:28 am PT

    I still don't see the appeal of wii fit. Don't get me wrong, i'm not looking to make people angry - but think about this. Essentially, it's a game based off of standing. There's a few problems with this. One: Why pay money for something you can do for free? Two: Let's be honest, standing around isn't fun. Now, of course, the idea of having your statistics tracked is a good one. It could, in theory, help you to get fit. But the truth is, there's only so much you can do with a pressure board, and most of them involve involve excercises that will not help lose wait or become more fit - rather, they are more subtle, similiar to Yoga.

    If a tracking system is what you need, to see your progress, why not buy other devices which are proven to work, and are designed to work more effectively, while not being limited to a pressure board? They aren't expensive these days.

    We'll see nintendo - being that I'm a collector of sorts, I'll be buying this and giving it a shot, but I remain skepticle. It seems to me this 'game' (or whatever you'd like to call it) is being marketed solely because parents and others will say "oh, hey, it has fit in the name! This MUST be good for the children!" and buy it. I remain skepticle.

  • EnozmeH

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 4:38 am PT

    Hopefully the estimates are correct... i doubt it highly though. People here in the US will have to be convinced the way informercials attempt to with their products of miracle weight loss. Although Nintendo isn't promising or promoting weight loss... i will stress that most American gamers will not go for this. I expect to purchase it because my girlfirned is in love with the interactive, motion controlled games on the Wii

  • epking

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 3:38 am PT

    wow, nice and thoughtful post Oloryn. Glad you were able to get healthy. I think the wii fit is a brilliant concept for the reasons you mention, and also as pure profit standpoint, Nintendo realize parents can get behind a video game system that encourages their kids to excercise and promotes well being.

  • death919

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 2:02 am PT

    It's an interesting piece of software that's for sure. I won't get it though, 140 pounds and 6 feet tall. Fast metabolism FTW! Anyways hopefully this will give Nintendo alot of money so they can put it into the next Zelda and stuff.

  • Oloryn

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 1:11 am PT

    I think that Wii Fit is an amazing idea. Admittedly, I grew up with extremely poor priorities regarding my health and found my way up to around 260lbs at age 18...my confidence was beyond low, and there was NO way you'd see me exercise outdoors or at a gym where I would be greeted by fit people who would only make fun of me for trying something healthy for once...I didn't have Wii Fit back then, so I turned to DDR. It was fun and was a nice way to exercise in the security of my own home where nobody would discourage me from trying to change my poor health...

    ...I lost 75 lbs.

    Sure, now I love the gym, and I love the outdoors and staying fit and healthy, but when you AREN'T that way to begin with, its tough to find a way out of that depressing rut, and I think that any method of trying to assist someone with a health problem should only be greeted with praise. In fact, just from a humanity and civilization standpoint, I think its positive to hear, for once, that more money is being spent promoting something healthy rather than something that has you sit on the couch all day.

  • chikahiro94

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 12:38 am PT

    Not to mention the weather isn't good everywhere all year 'round, and given its interactive nature that might be more motivating for people than watching an exercise DVD.

  • ender003

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 12:27 am PT

    TacticalElefant

    Wow that's alot of possibly fat people (not just stupid). Why buy something like this when you can go outside, out in the real world and go run or something,

    Because if people had any intention of doing that, they would be. Sure, people can keep asking why anyone would spend money on something like this when they can just exercise on their own. But the fact is, people aren't and won't exercise on their own. That's why there's so many fat people. Actually having this thing in their home and making it a fun thing to do is pretty good motivation to actually stick with it once you start. That being said, I really doubt it will be as successful here as it is in Japan. But hey, I hope I'm wrong.

  • nrt25

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 12:18 am PT

    I hope no one is stupid enough to buy this thinking that it will solve their weight problems.

  • FallenAngelXBL

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 12:17 am PT

    Nintendo need to expand the use of this popular peripheral by lining up a series of harcore and casual games. for example, having a proper snowboarding or skate boarding game or having a FPS or sword fighting game that uses the board for dodging maneuvers. IF they do something like this, it WILL be great, if not, well then...im not buying it...nuff said.

  • PS_Family

    Posted Apr 2, 2008 12:12 am PT

    That happens when you don't let natural selection run its course.

  • FreakingScreame

    Posted Apr 1, 2008 11:55 pm PT

    First and foremost I love my Wii... Although the massive predictions of this games sales are a good representation of what the Wii represents to most of the people that were not already gamers. That being that the Wii is a fun thing to have around the house because its a good conversation piece, and activity when I have people over. The main problem is that these people are basing their entire opinion of video games off of a silly little activity. Now I do know that there are quite a few "serious" games of high quality for the Wii, but I work in a game store and know from personal experience that these fledgling gamers are not picking up "serious" games (excluding Smash Bros.) they are instead opting for crap like "Carnival Games", and "Wii Play" (and not just for the controller because they buy it used without the controller half the time). It just pains me to see people with an already low opinion of video games having a new opinion of it being a marginally fun but still silly hobby.

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