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GameSpot Video Games, PC, Wii, PlayStation 2, GameCube, PSP, DS, GBA, PS2, PS3, Xbox 360, PlayStation 3

Shrinking January game sales predicted

Analysts point to shortened reporting period, weaker release schedule as reasons for lowered expectations.
By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpot
Posted Feb 11, 2008 1:16 pm PT

After months of exuberant gaming growth expectations, analysts are bracing for this week's release of the NPD Group's January US retail sales figures, expecting game software sales to shrink year over year.

In a note to investors, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson predicted that last month's software sales will wind up down 5 percent from the $549 million posted for January 2007, due to a combination of factors. One main reason for the expected decline is that the NPD Group's reporting period for last month was four weeks long, whereas the previous year's reporting period encompassed an extra week. If the two reporting periods had covered the same stretch of time, Wilson believes last month's figures would actually show growth for the industry of a little more than 10 percent.

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter also the shorter reporting period to turn what would have been a growth month for the industry into one in which it lost ground. Projecting that the NPD Group will report a sales shortfall of 9 percent for the month, Pachter said that the figure, when adjusted for the four-week reporting period, would actually show sales growth of 14 percent.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian was similarly reserved about the market's prospects. While he didn't put a concrete number on his expectations, he did warn that software sales would be "flat to up slightly," again noting the truncated reporting period as a main factor.

The "wisdom of the crowds" is siding with the professional analysts this month, as the simExchange prediction market is expecting game sales to be down a little more than 5 percent for the month. However, in his NPD preview note, simExchange analysts Jesse Divnich suggested that had the January reporting period been the same five weeks as it was last year, software sales likely would have been up 18 percent.

The shorter reporting period wasn't the only culprit mentioned for a projected software sales slide. Pachter pointed to a lighter early release schedule this year, and Wilson also suggested that this year's lineup doesn't measure up to that of January 2007. While both analysts expect Burnout Paradise to take the checkered flag in new release sales, Wilson said it can't compare against last year's slate of big new releases like Lost Planet on Xbox 360 and WarioWare: Smooth Moves for Wii.

On the hardware side, Pachter put the Wii first with the DS a close second, while the simExchange had the same pair topping the charts, albeit in a reversed order. Pachter placed the Xbox 360 atop the rest of the field, followed by the PlayStation 3 and the PlayStation Portable. On the simExchange side, the Xbox 360 still takes third, but the PSP outsells its console counterpart to round out the field.

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62 Comments

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truenextgen

Yea by me lol. I said If we try and keep the 360 in front as a consumer. And these freak fans for no reason. Will get bored of gaming and it wil fall. If we push gaming to its new leaders and except them as programmers and gamers. Wii and PS3 for power.W would be gaming at a much higher level now. But the developers did not have the Wii, or cell "True Next Gen" games done yet. Or they gave them no attention. So this was bound to happen.

Posted Feb 16, 2008 8:02 am PT
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theKSMM

Some of us need these gaps in the release calendar to allow us to catch up with the games we couldn't afford to buy when they first dropped.

Posted Feb 14, 2008 6:09 pm PT
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red-orc

The problem is, that x-mas brought us countless good games you can now buy used for half price. Distributors should spread their big-budget-releases wisely over the whole year. If we know what to expect, we can save our money for that.

Posted Feb 13, 2008 2:17 am PT
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ghost867

*Waits for PS3 to overtake 360 sales*

It's coming, it's just taking a damn long time, lol.

Posted Feb 12, 2008 3:25 pm PT
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Chief_Kuuni

well as long as good games are made, people will buy them, nomatter what month it is

Posted Feb 12, 2008 1:39 pm PT
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darknferno12

So whats a day in the life of an Analyst hanging out at gamespot.com for a few hours

Posted Feb 12, 2008 12:56 pm PT
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TTDog

@VenomRitual

Seems they do, but the analysts predict they'll bark less once they're asleep.

But thats only a prediction.

Posted Feb 12, 2008 10:07 am PT
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VenomRitual

can the NPD tell me if dog's bark?

Posted Feb 12, 2008 9:20 am PT
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speedjunkie4

In other news...this article is really not needed.

Posted Feb 12, 2008 8:11 am PT
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bradly_2795

Awesome, some more information that is basically meaningless....

Posted Feb 12, 2008 7:54 am PT
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/ (+1)
BigDaddy973

Cause nothing good is coming out...

Posted Feb 12, 2008 7:39 am PT
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RockaWuzHur

The NPD just announce things that the public already knows and gets paid for it. That must be an awsome easy job.

Posted Feb 12, 2008 6:39 am PT
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Homerj

Well duh. Holidays are over, so a lot of disposable cash was already spent and many gamers had multiple titles to play through. And the biggest factor, no top-shelf games released in Jan, just filler like BP. The numbers will upturn again for Feb, with a few high quality titles like DMC4 and LO releasing.

Posted Feb 12, 2008 6:32 am PT
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Rect_Pola

@ TTDog
Worse, they get paid to randomly guess stuff too. We give away for free.

Posted Feb 12, 2008 6:09 am PT
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TTDog

Seriously... do people get paid for spouting the bleeding obvious like this?

Posted Feb 12, 2008 5:49 am PT
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LosDaddie

hopefully another victory for the Xbox360

Posted Feb 12, 2008 5:34 am PT
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sickside6

thats already expected

Posted Feb 12, 2008 12:16 am PT
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mariokart64fan

we all know wii and ds are continuing to dominate as nes and snes dominated segas consoles wait and they always have dominated sega lol from its begining nes till t he end of sega - gc

Posted Feb 11, 2008 11:50 pm PT
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plaestic

In other news... the sun will rise yesterday.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 10:53 pm PT
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jsmoke03

i don't know if its down by that much. dmc4 came out and burnout. i think its not as down as everyone says it is. turok probably garnered couple copies as well

Posted Feb 11, 2008 9:07 pm PT
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saintsrowCS

How seriously should you take a prediction at the end of the month, a few days before the sales figures are released?

Posted Feb 11, 2008 9:02 pm PT
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/ (+7)
OCMarshjen

And in other news... the sun is probably going to rise tomorrow!

Posted Feb 11, 2008 8:53 pm PT
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PumpkinBoogie

Wow....a report that tells us that the gaming industry didn't fair well in sales for the month of January....

No freakin' duh, analysts.....any gamer after the (finance breakin') holiday season coulda told you that. Every gamer knows not much comes out in January and even if it did--after December you're too damn broke to buy it anyway.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 8:53 pm PT
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BoobyUnger

after christmas people dont usually have the money to be spending on games... you dont need to waste money on surveys to know this

Posted Feb 11, 2008 8:31 pm PT
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Newsboy

Hmm. I did a lot of video game purchasing in january. What the hell is wrong with the rest of you?

Posted Feb 11, 2008 8:22 pm PT
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Adam_the_Nerd

With the US port of Super Smash Bros Brawl, Grand Theft Auto IV and other big titles around the corner, it makes sense that Jan sales would slump

Posted Feb 11, 2008 8:08 pm PT
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Extreme124

Thats why Dark Sector is out in March.

I watched the Special on Gamer TV of Dark Sector showed how they made it also lots of other things.

Def getting Dark Sector NOW!!!

Posted Feb 11, 2008 7:26 pm PT
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musicaz70

This is like watching those hour+ long Pre-Super Bowl reports... Although this information was a bit more obvious, all in all it was pointless... And, quite uninteresting.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 7:19 pm PT
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Javier

Gee, I can come up with the same "predictions" just by looking at Gamestops release list.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 7:19 pm PT
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BigSmitts07

when hasnt january been a sucky month...everyone realses everyting during christmas that january is pretty much always dead and then march or so things start to pick back up again

Posted Feb 11, 2008 6:45 pm PT
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Pete5506

Nothing good came out in Jan, only thing that was good was burnout

Posted Feb 11, 2008 6:45 pm PT
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Generic_Dude

When Burnout Paradise is the big game of the month, yeah I expect that January sales will be down. But March and April will be pretty solid.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 6:20 pm PT
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Merl57

i got paradise in jan i think

Posted Feb 11, 2008 5:19 pm PT
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stillereize

Here's a thought: How can I buy games when my freaking Xbox 360 keeps coming back "repaired" yet still broken? Maybe if I had a console to play I'd buy one or two games, but Microsoft likes keeping McAllen Texas on the map instead of actually fixing the problem. God forbid they fix the Xbox 360's overheating and RROD issues or else India would fall into the Indian Ocean never to be heard from again. I pray everyday for this. Amen.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 5:11 pm PT
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Zoard

Its been a slow month. Without much games coming out so its kinda obvious.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 4:39 pm PT
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HellRazer360

wait what did this article say....it confused me...what are game sales lower or something???

Posted Feb 11, 2008 4:22 pm PT
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DocGonzo1971

So, is it because of the shorter reporting period or the fact of US recession fears?

Posted Feb 11, 2008 4:14 pm PT
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lamprey263

meh, an article about the NPD figures would be more interesting than people making predictions a couple days before the monthly report comes out

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:53 pm PT
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DravenLaVitt

hahaha..oooookay then.

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:47 pm PT
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Smoky_Hill

Wii DS
360
ps2
psp
PS3

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:36 pm PT
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Vardofire

Am I the only one thinking this is very uninteresting news?
Seriously, give us something exclusive or insightful and no more of that economic prediction crap we seem to be getting more and more often. Also, did you notice that a lot of the other articles seem to be written by gamespot.uk...

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:32 pm PT
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ocdog45

compared to the last couple months, I guess so

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:24 pm PT
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RAWeber

does anyone really care about their ****

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:20 pm PT
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Fat_Boy_PT

In other news, the sky is blue, britney spears is a psycho and the world will end in 2 hours!

Posted Feb 11, 2008 3:15 pm PT
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DevilMario54

Lost Odyssey might spark some life into these sales, maybe not much, but maybe some, at least for 360, not sure of any other big name games coming out for the ps3 or wii

Posted Feb 11, 2008 2:51 pm PT
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JackfnBurton

So...basically...nothing...really happened. Just like the last few seasons of the X-Files!

Posted Feb 11, 2008 2:51 pm PT
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VolcanoMan001

Ok, so do these people get paid to think up the obvious or what?

Posted Feb 11, 2008 2:23 pm PT
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Michaelas10 Posted Feb 11, 2008 2:13 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. login to show)
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