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BioShock buoys Take-Two shares

Gushing reviews for 2K Boston's submersed shooter float stock price, analyst questions whether flood of hype will precipitate sales.

On Friday, Take-Two Interactive stock ended the day's trading at $12.02. The same day, glowing reviews began to pile up for the publisher's Xbox 360 and PC game BioShock. While critical acclaim doesn't always translate into commercial success, investors took note of the praise and pushed the stock up in anticipation of the game's Tuesday release. By the close of trading yesterday, the stock was up more than 21 percent to $14.55.

While that jump is welcome news to a company whose stock has been down since it announced the delay of Grand Theft Auto IV into 2008, not everyone is feeling the enthusiasm over BioShock.

"Bioshock looks great, but its not the next GTA," warned Nollenberger Capital Partners' Todd Greenwald in a note to investors. "While we were impressed by the quality of Bioshock, we are concerned that investors' expectations may be getting carried away. While many initially expected Bioshock to be a modest hit and sell 500,000 to 1 million units, it now seems clear to us that it may sell in the 1.5-2.0 million unit range. However, with the stock up over 20 percent in the last few days, we have heard of expectations in the 3-4 million unit range, which we believe are unrealistic."

Greenwald mentioned the "unbelievably strong" Metacritic average of 97 for the game, but pointed out that it is being released on only one console so far, and that the first-person shooter style of play is traditionally suited more to hardcore gamers.

"The game is very dark, very complex, and will have a hard time penetrating the mass market, in our view," Greenwald said.

While Greenwald noted that Gears of War was a fairly hardcore Xbox 360 exclusive that found commercial success (2.4 million copies sold in the US alone according to the NPD Group), he thinks BioShock's situation is significantly different. Specifically, Greenwald said Gears of War was more accessible, and benefited from better marketing support and a holiday release window. Finally, Gears of War didn't have to compete with Halo 3, which is set for release in five weeks on September 25.

97 Comments

  • RaiKageRyu

    Posted Aug 28, 2007 7:52 pm GMT

    The power of one game!

  • gangsterjc

    Posted Aug 26, 2007 4:11 pm GMT

    dukem nukem 4 ever big fan of duke HERE HAIL TO THE KING BABY! WOOO

  • osxgp

    Posted Aug 26, 2007 2:57 am GMT

    Halo 3 has some serious competition with Bioshock. I love this game.

  • AzureLivesOn

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 7:30 pm GMT

    BioShock is, IMHO, one of the greatest games this generation has seen. It proves that an FPS CAN have a truly gripping storyline, in-depth characters, and lack an online multiplayer and still be absolutely amazing. The first night, I literally had to tell my wife to shut off the Xbox 360 via the DVD remote to get me to stop playing.

    Monumental. Simply monumental.

  • jsratm

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 3:38 pm GMT

    "Duke Nukem forever thats were the real money is"

    word.

  • playstation_wii

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 3:30 pm GMT

    I'm going to guess 1.5 million copies sold

  • feld3d

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 12:36 pm GMT

    they have no faith in there own company. bioshock is great im sure the next grand theft will be great but if they really want the stock to go up they will get 3drealms to finish Duke Nukem forever thats were the real money is

  • pidow

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 11:09 am GMT

    Excellent game, it's more than I expected,unbelievable,super!.

  • Sam_Lowery

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 10:18 am GMT

    a 9 out of 10 is a high score any way you look at it, but it is kinda funny that gamespot's score was the lowest score this game got out of every other review site. Well I guess a 4.5 out of 5 is the same as a 9 out of 10, so I guess a few other review scores are tied with GS for the lowest score given to Bioshock.
    .
    And I'm not complaining about the review or saying they should have given it a higher score. The review was fine, I just wonder what score it would have gotten with the old review system instead of the five point block system they have now. I mean come on, is Perfect Dark Zero really equally as good as this game?

  • nobeaner

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 9:34 am GMT

    THIS IS THE UBER GAME! Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't recall a better game released in August ever.

  • blackace

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 9:17 am GMT

    The game is fantastic and will definitely sell over a million copies. I don't know if it'll sell over 2 million however. That may be a stretch, but anything over 1 million copies is considered to be a huge success. That's usually the measuring stick for console games. If you haven't picked up a copy of Bioshock yet, go and get it now. I got mine at Fry's Electronics for $50.

  • sonofabear17

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 8:59 am GMT

    I got Bioshock last night I only playd for a couple hours but its SOOOO AWESOME...and it can get freaky when you are playing it in a pitch black room at 2:00 in the morning i was like then i was like then i was like

  • TheUnionFrag

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 8:51 am GMT

    Buy teh b10shock peeps [or something].

  • miiiguel

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 7:43 am GMT

    Bioshock among other things brought "class" to the video-game community.

  • ebookerd1

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 6:30 am GMT

    This game is hotter than Crack in the 80's!!! This game is really an experience i can picture over a million for the real hardcore gamer. The analyst isn't a gamer and probably has only played a game at Toys R Us. GTA should not be compared. This game is past mindless violence and is more indept than any game I have ever scene. This game does need more TV spots it would sell an extra 1 million easy. Considering that would push the console and game to the "Wii" market. Sorry Wii fans, If you wanted die-hard action and indepth gameplay you wouldn't buy a Wii. Sorry I have never really been a mario fan That cartrige was only used for Duck Hunt.

  • asdfpo

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 5:20 am GMT

    demoralizer

    Buy this game people.

    if they fix the problems they have i will

  • -HCMF-

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 3:38 am GMT

    this game truly is a masterpiece and I hope they get to reap the rewards of such an acomplishment.

  • Irve

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 1:33 am GMT

    i agree , a quality game doesn't equal large sales figures ... just look at stranger's wrath and Psychonauts on the Xbox ! What Bioshock does have in it's favour is word of mouth .. this could be a slow burner .. top the charts for 1 maybe 2 weeks and then people look at it and think .. hey ... this is selling well .. it must be good .... then people will start to tell their friends about it ... looking great has it advantages !! Still it should bode well for future developments

  • SalarianChemist

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 1:32 am GMT

    The three games that have been winning all of the Awards at trade shows, ever since the 2006 E3, are Gears of War, Mass Effect, and Bioshock.

    Bioshock is AWESOME!!!

    Bioshock is a different kind of game than Gears of War is, but that just goes to show that the Xbox 360 is BY FAR the #1 console in EVERY Genre of gaming this generation!!!

    I mean, even in genres such as Real Time Strategy, Puzzle, Party, Family, Platform, RPG, and Extreme Sports, the Xbox 360 has a HUGE list of games to make sure that everyone is happy!!!

    Microsoft is saying that their 2007 Holiday lineup of games is the best the game industry has ever seen during the Holiday shopping season. I think there is an excellent chance that 2007 will end up breaking the records of the 2004 shopping season that currently holds the records.

    The reason I say that is because of great games like Halo 3, Mass Effect, Call of Duty 4, Madden 2008 (and all the other awesome Xbox 360 Football games), and of course....Bioshock!

    Bioshock is one of the highest rated games in history, and I think that regardless of the competition, Bioshock has a great chance of selling millions of copies, because it has lots of replay value, is almost perfect in length to beat the game, has multiple endings, and has incredible graphics and sound that create a scary atmosphere.

    There is an Xbox 360 game called Crackdown that I think is BETTER than Grand Theft Auto!!! Crackdown has a LOT more things to do than Grand Theft Auto ever did...and somebody should tell this stock analyst guy that Grand Theft Auto 4 likely will not be rated as highly as Bioshock!

  • deltaacid

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 12:49 am GMT

    MASS MARKET GAMERS ARE MINDLESS WHO CARES

    The gamer that sits around playing solely madden games, nba/nhl/nfl/xyz 2Kx (fill in the variables), movie based trash, and of course has a copy of GOW with 100 achievement points or less isnt the market your shooting for with a game like this and they dont need them to sell the game. Im about halfway through, so far its a really stand-out title to me and will SELL A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF COPIES with or without your average-joe-madden gamer contributing. Everyone under the sun is going to buy Halo 3, if you can afford 360 you can afford to pick-up Bioshock five weeks earlier and play the currently highest rated game on 360 during the rest of the painful wait. As of an hour ago the game was at #2 overall top rated based on review averages for all systems ever at gamerankings, I have a feeling I wouldnt want advice from that d-bag analyst.

    ITS GREAT TO SEE ORIGINAL, CREATIVE, GORGEOUS GAMES LIKE THIS BEING BROUGHT TO LIFE IN THE WAKE OF THE INCREASING PUSH TOWARDS THE "EA POLICY" - GET THAT SH** OUT ONCE A YEAR NO MATTER WHAT SUFFERS ITS COOL ITS ALL ABOUT THE $$

    Kudos to 2K and Irrational

  • SmallPower

    Posted Aug 23, 2007 12:16 am GMT

    Bioshock is an amazing game.

  • BigDaveyDogz

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:57 pm GMT

    Bioshock baby WHOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

  • MarineXXII

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:55 pm GMT

    Bioshock is awesome, i hated it at first but once i played it and gave it a chance it truly blew me away, im not suprised this game is making so much $$

  • BlueBirdTS

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:52 pm GMT

    I have closely been following Bioshock for over two years, and after playing it for several hours today, I have to say that it completely meets my very lofty expectations.

  • thee_Decider

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:37 pm GMT

    The ease of controls + "easy" difficulty setting makes this a possible 2 million seller.
    For those considering CE, Big Daddy figurine is awesome and hefty, "soundtrack" is a crappy 3-song EP. Haven't watched "making of" dvd, waiting 'till I finish the game...
    I love this game almost as much as Oblivion... I love that the enemies trash talk like in RE6 Vegas...

  • wando77

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:35 pm GMT

    Stop going on about halo 3............funny thing is I own a 360 and neither me or any of my buddies on my friends list like halo. We've all played the second one and purchased crackdown to play the beta and we only tried it a few times then slipped gears and R6 back in. Halo sucks balls.

  • YukoAsho

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:29 pm GMT

    I'm sure analysts thought GTA III wouldn't do that well either. The analyst population has proven to be more wrong than right.

  • Dill-Man

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 9:02 pm GMT

    there is no way bioshock is gonna sell that much, its not very appealing to the mass market of people, still a really awesome game though that deserves the reviews and hype

  • Disciple_Gamer

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 8:54 pm GMT

    selling 2 million copy by years end is possible for this game.

  • destructiontalk

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 8:44 pm GMT

    Gears of war was a good game because of the graphics and core and multiplayer. Bioshock is good becuase its ORIGINAL halo is overated yes halo geeks I said it Halo and then Sequels are overrated games.

  • xJanciox

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 7:44 pm GMT

    u cant compare this game to gtaIV its totally different game

  • Pete5506

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 7:21 pm GMT

    BioShock will do well

  • Yuck_Too

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 6:38 pm GMT

    --DJSMITH007 --
    Bioshock just needs ti be advertised....Like Gears of War was
    ~~~~~
    Needs a catchy song to go with it.

  • DJSMITH007

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 6:11 pm GMT

    Bioshock just needs ti be advertised....Like Gears of War was.

  • tresdizzle

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 6:02 pm GMT

    I disagree that Bioshock is just for hardcore. If a casual gamer plays on easy and keep the help stuff on (arrows), they will have no problem jumping right in and enjoying this game. Its so helpful sometimes I feel guilty and dont want to look at the hints. My girlfriend even plays, and she's not a true gamer.

    Also if they some how release this for the PS3 and possibly a dummed down version for the wii, stocks will sky rocket!

  • timothyt

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 5:26 pm GMT

    I'm not sure 3-4 million is unrealistic. It's the only "must-have" game until Halo3 next month, and there are about what, 11 million 360s out there? That would be 1 out of every 3 system owners and the game really is that good (just got it this evening and OMG!). Halo3 will probably be a 1:1 seller with the system, but BioShock is probably more on par with Gears in terms of audience (bloody, darker than Halo). I could see it happening... I have a friend who's buying a 360 mainly to play Bioshock.

  • demoralizer

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 5:20 pm GMT

    Buy this game people.

  • mkurts

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:54 pm GMT

    Not the next GTA ? Who cares ?

    GTA isn't the only game that sells - and people are recognising the potential of Bioshock. The game is no more complex than GTA 4, which actually has more side missions and controls, while lacking in originality like SA. Bioshock is no doubt an enjoyable game even for the mass market, and for a guy who knows nothing, perhaps he should shut his mouth and stop trying to make stupid predictions.

    GTA sells more than it should only because of rampant brainless support for its unorthodox and often disgusting content, which helps its hype and appeal - maybe if they made Lara Croft fully nude and include a 'minigame' as a reward, TR would sell way more copies than GTA.

  • theh8er

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:53 pm GMT

    Bioshock is off the Hook. I just finished another two hours of it. One of the most original games I have played. Its like a 1960 Resident Evil FPS with great controls. It looks ridiculous too.

  • InnerHeaven_X

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:52 pm GMT

    I was rather sceptical of Bioshock but now that I have it I think that it will deffinatly help pull me through the wait till Halo 3. same to go with Two Worlds. Great job 2K truely a great game!

  • lamprey263

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:47 pm GMT

    ^_^ yay, just got my copy today!! Can't wait to get off work.

  • okassar

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:40 pm GMT

    I'm expecting like 1.8 million to be sold in the U.S,maybe evwen less since there wasn't alot of marketing and the timing isn't right,but I guess Take-Two didn't want Bioshock to be an un-heard-of-hit.There was though some modest hype,so it's not going to sell like Gears of War,but it,at most,could get pretty close.The game,by the way,is amazing,the combat system is so original and the storyline is one of the best storylines ever put into a game.It would be good to invest in Bungie before Halo 3 comes out .

  • Selfdestruct9

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:35 pm GMT

    I wanna buoy gamespot!

  • Funkyhamster

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:32 pm GMT

    Hmm... that's not really surprising considering Bioshock's hype.

  • xfan-atic

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:22 pm GMT

    I am a Halo fan, a diehard Halo fan. And Bioshock is so good, I want it alittle bit less than Halo 3, and thats a big deal for me...

  • jim_sk8er_201

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:21 pm GMT

    i love this game

  • dragonbattousai

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:17 pm GMT

    BioShock is a definate game that will be remembered as a classic for generations to come. This game has everything someone that likes to read books with mystery and bizarre things. I know marketers worry about competition with other games such as Halo 3, but I believe that it wouldn't make a difference for people that want to try this game out.

  • HK-47-M4

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:17 pm GMT

    Good for 2k, they needed this after the GTA Fiasco. Still though, they should release a PS3 Version as well sometime down the road.

  • lovemuscle13

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 3:43 pm GMT

    Bioshock is the closest I've come to having the same experience of playing an amazing game and reading an equally amazing novel. Underestimating the selling power of a game like that is a huge mistake. Sure, the first person shooter genre is geared more towards a genre of hobbyist gamers over the casual, the game is still amazingly simple to pick up and play, while at the same time being very complex in what you can do while playing the game. I see Halo 3 as being competition only for the fact that it is so heavily reliant on both its multiplayer campaign and competition and really not holding it's ground as far as story is concerned. Sure, it's Sci Fi, that makes little to no sense, with huge plot holes and unbalanced weapons, but Bioshock draws heavily from fine literature that it's hard to imagine that it's not going to be a huge success. Or I completely underestimate ADD.

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