Analyst: Wii shortages could last until 2008

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian thinks Nintendo is producing nearly 1.5 million systems a month, but that might not be enough to meet demand.

With the Nintendo Summit wrapped up, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian dropped a note to investors to recap what he saw as key takeaways from the event. One of those takeaways was a "good news, bad news" situation for gamers still on the hunt for a Wii.

"We believe that Nintendo may be near its targeted monthly Wii production of approximately 1.5 million units per month, based on comments made by Nintendo, as well as retailers such as GameStop," Sebastian said. "Based on our retail channel checks, demand still appears to exceed supply, and we believe that shortages could persist through the remainder of the year, including the key holiday period."

Sebastian also said that the third-party titles "confirm a casual game focus for Wii/DS." He additionally suggested that Nintendo was more aggressively pursuing third-party support for its systems than it has in the past, based on conversations he had during the summit.

308 Comments

  • theKSMM

    Posted Jun 11, 2007 11:58 pm PT

    I have no trouble finding Wiis, which has led me to believe that I spend way too much time in electronics / gaming stores.

  • yman173

    Posted May 31, 2007 9:51 pm PT

    I had to hunt mine down for weeks. Thankfully I have enough time on my hands to make the phonecalls & track the websites locally to have gotten one. Still, I had to drive 50 miles from my hometown in a snowstorm back in Feb, and when I got there mine was one of 4 in stock. I figured by now, the shortages wouldve eased-up. Im SO glad I didnt wait for that to happen, though. Im lovin my Wii...the VC games alone make it worth the price. And when some more quality Wii-Specific games come to market later this year...Im so loving it!!

    For those of you yet to get your system, stay persistant. It IS worth all the hype, unlike a certain Sony machine that's gathering dust everywhere. (Northern Illinois, fyi)

  • hesel

    Posted May 31, 2007 3:21 am PT

    Finding Numchucks and controllers is a pain in the arse, there still out of stock in are town, and when they are wii's we get signs saying "In stock hurry" then they go in a few hours, lucky I got mine on launch, bit lame for everyone who doesn't have one, but you would think they would be able to make more machines, for such a small simple console.

  • razu_gamer

    Posted May 30, 2007 1:47 pm PT

    Typical Nintendo. Can't even make more factories to produce more Wii's. AS for those who say shortages are artificial. That is probably better as when big titles come out gamers will go out and rush to buy a console so an increase in supply is needed.

  • zhane12

    Posted May 30, 2007 12:52 pm PT

    I have a Wii. Had to stand in line for 14 hours for one, but I still got it.

  • Symphonycometh

    Posted May 30, 2007 12:16 pm PT

    The need for Wiis are finally slowing down on demand here in good ole Missouri...

    Or is that everywhere?

  • jcp234psu

    Posted May 30, 2007 9:28 am PT

    well its good to know the wii is still selling like chocolate.
    "I saw run and russy from run's house playing the wii!" i never seen run being so interested in it,lol"
    _________________________________________
    I saw it too!!!! It got memore hyped to by a Wii! It tickled me seeing them enjoying themselves on the Wii. Especially considering Run was supposed to be reprimanding his son, but instead got in on the Wii-goodness.

  • brianpoetzel

    Posted May 30, 2007 7:51 am PT

    @yukoAsho
    I don't know about that. They are producing 1.5mil per month. If every retailer in the world gets around 5, or even less, that would easily account for the units produced. And I think it's safe to say that Japan is getting a larger % compared to the rest of the world.

  • Chef_Bretz

    Posted May 30, 2007 7:24 am PT

    In the UK they are STILL 'none'. One day maybe m friends & I will have one of these little consoles. Until then we will read about continuing reviews/previews about a console none of us have.

  • TensiNothing

    Posted May 30, 2007 3:59 am PT

    Targets and Wal-Marts in Tennessee seem to have Wii Accessories, Nun-Chuck & Remote.
    but still, to this day I have not seen a Wii in store yet, I've seen plenty of PS3's, so if your looking for one, we've got plenty.

  • NeoNavarro

    Posted May 30, 2007 12:25 am PT

    I have a X-Box 360 and PS3 now all thats missing is the Wii to complete the collection. My are they a pain in the butt to find. My buddy finally got one after several weeks of looking. The good news is he got the Wii ....the bad news is now he has to now find some extra controllers. Just like the system the controllers are also a pain in the butt to find. I'm not too worried though I'm hopping that when i do pick mine up there will be more games available to fufill my gaming needs. I wish I waited on purchasing my PS3 ...

  • Gamer6534

    Posted May 29, 2007 8:16 pm PT

    I just got mine, its awesome, sucks alot more people wont be able to experience it.

  • hoodedshyguy

    Posted May 29, 2007 7:09 pm PT

    Makes sense to me. I love mine. Best system, high-def graphics or no.

  • YukoAsho

    Posted May 29, 2007 6:01 pm PT

    SemiMaster - Oh I agree. When Gamestops are barely getting more than 5 at a time (in major metropolitan areas like Miami, FL and Jacksonville, FL), you know there's a problem. I do think that at least some of it is artificial, but when you consider how Japan has just unilaterally rejected everything else, one has to wonder if they're not getting 80-plus-percent of the shipments.

    Either way, I doubt Nintendo is unhappy about the hype this "shortage" generates.

  • surferboy2177

    Posted May 29, 2007 4:58 pm PT

    Man I'm glad I pre-ordered mine at launch. I still wouldn't have one if I didn't.

  • Nin10doFan44

    Posted May 29, 2007 4:40 pm PT

    It sucks for you guys who doesn't have a Wii yet because I already own one !!!

  • mhder

    Posted May 29, 2007 2:53 pm PT

    I was at the Futureshop online site on Monday. They were showing 0 Wii on Sunday, but had that changed to about 20 the next day (shipment just arrived). I refreshed the page twice and it was down to 0. The demand still seems to be strong in most areas. I'm sure they'd love to make more but that's easier said than done.

  • Jestarius

    Posted May 29, 2007 2:25 pm PT

    It never ceases to amaze me how, even with the internet at their disposal to compare with other areas, how ignorant people can be of everything outside their own living space. Everybody I see decrying an artificial shortage tends to say the same thing: "They aren't where I live, so they must not exist!". Ever possibly think there are thousands of other stores in the country that might, just possibly, be getting them instead of you? Now, I would agree that that is a bad supply decision. But just because you haven't seen the Wii on shelves, and have had a slow supply in your store(s) of choice, does not mean that everywhere is suffering from the same problem, as you could tell if you simply looked at other people's posts.

  • superjon6

    Posted May 29, 2007 12:05 pm PT

    Why don't they just increas production to 2.3 million a month, and this would not hurt profits, because they would also sell more games tho fans who have not got a wii yet. Or 3 million! And haven't they only sold 2.5 million and are making 1.5 million a month, it doesn't make sense, or that is only in the US.

  • lil-maxy

    Posted May 29, 2007 12:01 pm PT

    I might buy my wii in the next two mounths

  • NND1

    Posted May 29, 2007 11:46 am PT

    Wii is the BoMB System... I had to wake up at 3:00am 11/25/06 to buy one, but it was well worth it...

  • casinater

    Posted May 29, 2007 11:46 am PT

    go to the wal-mart in myrtle beach, south carolina and get your wii....nobody buys them there because all of the shoppers are tourists...those were the first wii's i had personally seen on a shelf lol

  • lithus

    Posted May 29, 2007 11:05 am PT

    MarcusMaximus04 "I think you're failing to notice how many wiis have sold so far. They are almost catching up to the total number of xbox 360's sold since launch even though it's been out a year longer. And Ithus: just look at the numbers, it's pretty clear that the wii really IS in that high of demand."

    I've seen the numbers. I'm talking about the current supply, from the past few months. Not since launch. Normally production and shipment increases as the months go by, after the initial influx. Not so with the Wii. If they're making 1.5 million units a month..than where are they?! Exactly...

  • MarcusMaximus04

    Posted May 29, 2007 9:58 am PT

    To all the people saying the shortage is artificial(especially lithus):
    I think you're failing to notice how many wiis have sold so far. They are almost catching up to the total number of xbox 360's sold since launch even though it's been out a year longer. And Ithus: just look at the numbers, it's pretty clear that the wii really IS in that high of demand.

  • Get_Shorty

    Posted May 29, 2007 9:58 am PT

    Hellooo it clearly says up above that Nintendo is making it's targetted production confirmed by retailers. They're doing all they can it just isn't enough. They wouldn't purposely not have enough consoles to sell for the key holiday period.

  • Pedro7_2000

    Posted May 29, 2007 9:08 am PT

    I played my first Wii this weekend...it's ok. The control scheme is cool for sports games (everyone's playing Wii sports because it's the only thing out and works the best with the controller). But I think most people are buying the Wii because they think it's trendy. But if they don't get the strong 3rd party support, the trend will end soon. I’m still bitter about my Cube purchase.

  • SemiMaster

    Posted May 29, 2007 8:51 am PT

    YukoAsho : Well, I went and got my own Wii yesterday, why? Because it was the weekend of graduation and Memorial Day, the only reason I was able to get 1 out of 3 units they got in the past 3 weeks is what the woman at customer service said to me. Now 3 units in 3 weeks is REALLY weak in my opinion. And true, Japan may be getting the majority, but I still believe that this shortage is artificial and the fact that I was able to get one yesterday was nothing short of a miracle and straight up dumb luck. Just because I now have one doesn't mean I still don't believe this shortage is artificial.

  • lithus

    Posted May 29, 2007 7:31 am PT

    A marketing ploy by Nintendo. They're producing less units to give the illusion that they're in high demand. Reminds me of the story about Circuit City managers being told by corporate to keep the majority of PS3 stock off shelves and in the warehouse to give the appearance of them selling out. Just like Sony is saying they're pulling the 20 gig because the 60gig is selling "so well". Bah! Wrong! It's because no ones buying the 20gig at all due to it being completely inferior. Nice try Sony and Nintendo. We're on to you.

  • brianpoetzel

    Posted May 29, 2007 6:54 am PT

    I'd like to get a wii. But they'll need to get more games out that appeal to me first. right now their catalog is pretty sparse.

  • ChitoKiryoku

    Posted May 29, 2007 6:46 am PT

    glad I already got mine. But seriously, they're producing 1.5 mill a month and it's still not enough, looks like nintendo's doing well

  • merch

    Posted May 29, 2007 6:10 am PT

    glad i got mine at launch lol i told everyone this would happan this is how nintendo is gonna beat 360 with system sales christmas time armageddon of wiis.

  • Kerridan_Kaiba

    Posted May 29, 2007 5:31 am PT

    I'm glad I went ahead and got my cousin a Wii for his birthday months ago.


    I really can't believe the shortage will last that long. Many Best Buys in my area are advertising they have Wiis and enough of them to go around. I guess it depends on where you live.

  • rottenjoe

    Posted May 29, 2007 3:38 am PT

    Wii seems like a nice little machine.. i might get one b4 then.

  • ThePhilatron

    Posted May 29, 2007 1:38 am PT

    I guess I have little choice but to wait and see.

  • InSoMnIaK604

    Posted May 29, 2007 12:36 am PT

    I want my Wii.

  • keeperofgames

    Posted May 28, 2007 11:18 pm PT

    hovan316
    "Get a Gamecube and you won't see a difference..."

    Spoken like a true fanboy/graphics whore/non-Wii owner

  • hovan316 posted May 28, 2007 10:05 pm PT (does not meet display criteria. sign in to show)

    hovan316

    Posted May 28, 2007 10:05 pm PT (hide)

    Get a Gamecube and you won't see a difference...

  • YukoAsho

    Posted May 28, 2007 9:18 pm PT

    SemiMaster - I wonder about that. More than likely, the VAST majority of them are going to Japan. Their sales make ours seem tame for Nintendo, and considering their downright obsession with brain training clones, I don't see Nintendo's popularity wavering there.

  • rey06

    Posted May 28, 2007 8:31 pm PT

    well its good to know the wii is still selling like chocolate.
    "I saw run and russy from run's house playing the wii!" i never seen run being so interested in it,lol"

  • Lightchaos

    Posted May 28, 2007 8:09 pm PT

    go Nintendo! The wii is selling great!!!

  • MiketheOtaku

    Posted May 28, 2007 6:45 pm PT

    @QueefGiblet


    Yeah, the Wii is more or less of a "wait-and-see" kinda thing.
    Which sucks, but doesn't....however that works. With promising titles like Smash Bros., Mario Galaxy, H.A.M.M.E.R., Sadness, and all those other ones, it gives you a reason to get one now, before the second rush comes.

    Mind you, it also sucks because their just taunting you with "Looky here!" and you try and get it just to be rejected....y'know "You've gotta wait for another year!"

  • Dark_Link87

    Posted May 28, 2007 6:42 pm PT

    stop buying the wii it sucks geez,............(''thinks'' muahaha ounce everyone stops buying the wii, ill be able to go buy one myself, HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!)

  • Somini

    Posted May 28, 2007 4:49 pm PT

    At least from where I'm sitting, I saw shortages until about a month ago, but now it's easy to get a hold of a Wii. I don't know how it is in the rest of the world, but I have a hard time believing that the shortages will last that long.

  • Nitrobrain07

    Posted May 28, 2007 3:40 pm PT

    2008? That sucks

  • Pajuan

    Posted May 28, 2007 2:51 pm PT

    So that means I won't find for Christmas a $200 Wii or a $250 Wii with two games bundled? (Sight...)
    I don't know if I can wait too much more to get one of those little machines, but every nickle I can save makes me feel so good... Yeah, I'm cheap.

  • MadGamer132

    Posted May 28, 2007 2:32 pm PT

    if try to get one, i still go to GameStop, EB Games, Best buy,etc. IT DOESN'T MATTER.

  • 8_19_basic

    Posted May 28, 2007 2:30 pm PT

    we all know the only reason wiiis selling is because its 250 dont lie to urself god

  • jaredcrazy3232

    Posted May 28, 2007 1:52 pm PT

    KickinIt_ftw.. i like your comment but this shouldn't reprsent all major chains... i work in the electronics dept. of Zellers (comparable to k-mart but better) and we have an entire 4' section for ps3... yes most of it is being used for psp (even though the psp has its own 4' cabinet) and yes the ps3 space right now is small... but i have been getting many more games recently and am in need of more shelves to put the games (we have 16 facings available right now) so i don't believe we can compare it to the dreamcast just yet...

  • QueefGiblet

    Posted May 28, 2007 11:45 am PT

    I'd consider buying one if it had games worth buying it for.

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