Enterbrain: PS3 will lead Wii by Q4 2007

Japanese newspaper cites study by Famitsu publisher as saying Sony's next-gen console will triumph in the end.

At the 2006 Tokyo Game Show, Sony announced that it was dropping the price of its lower-end-model PlayStation 3 in Japan. The drop will see the 20GB version of the next-gen console costing 49,980 yen (about $429) when it goes on sale in Japan November 11.

Following the announcement, analysts in North America--where the 20GB PS3 will still cost $499--were doubtful. UBS' Mike Wallace went as far as to call the move "a questionable business decision and a sign of weakness" on the part of Sony.

However, it appears that such price drops may only be the beginning. Over the weekend, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper cited a study by Enterbrain Inc., publisher of Famitsu magazine, as expecting "further price reductions" and a greatly expanded software catalog for the PS3 by the 2007 holiday season.

As a result, Enterbrain predicted that the PS3 will outsell its biggest next-gen rival in Japan, the Nintendo Wii, by the end of next year. However, in the near term, the company believes that the Wii will win out. It predicts that worldwide PS3 sales through the end of March will total 4.13 million units, while the Wii will move 5.47 million units during the same period.

Despite the delayed PS3 launch in Europe, Sony has a stated goal of shipping--not selling--6 million PS3s by the end of March 2007. Nintendo aims to ship 6 million Wiis in 2006 alone, and recent reports indicate it looks likely to surpass its target.

520 Comments

  • Ksharp1

    Posted Apr 26, 2007 6:09 pm PT

    megaman90210, your kidding right? ps2 and ps3 do look alike, but that has nothing to do with performance and the controllers are completely different, the menus are completely different. i dont know all the things it can do yet and ive had it for 4 days ^_^ not to mention the graphics and game performances(and just wait for the big realeases of games) i dont have a wii so i wont say anything about it, but i do know the ps3 is 100 times better then the ps2 in everything.. maybe you should atleast look up the specs on the ps3 before you put it down instead of just looking at it and calling it a remake of ps2..and ive always known the ps3 would outsell wii, its a no brainer.

  • Megaman90210

    Posted Nov 26, 2006 6:01 pm PT

    At my local Wal-Mart, they had a discription of the PS3 on a poster on the wall in the game section. It said something like "Go beyond Great graphics, sound, And main menu with the PS3." But the PS3 is only improving on those things. look at it: Same controller, similar system look, Sony's just trying to make the PS2 into a better version. Then there's the Wii.Look at it: New controller with motion sensing for a new way to experience game play, new counsil look that's small & therefore easy to carry around. How is it that the PS3 is expected to outdo the Wii when it's a slightly enhanced version of the PS2? I mean sure, the PS3 can connect to the Internet & play PS1 & 2 games, but the Wii can connect to the Internet & play Gamecube games....Among many other features.

  • shortychi6

    Posted Nov 21, 2006 2:07 am PT

    All I have to say is I told you SOOooo! I told you guys that the PS3 is gonna be way better than the Wii. Its not even a comparison. Ok...I have to admit that my Wii is pretty fun but at times the controllers arent' as responsive and so on. Lack of games on system is bad. Everyone talked trash about PS3 not having any launch games. 21 games in a 1month is more than any system period. I like my Wii but its just like I thought. I love my PS3. Look to the Sky, PS3 for the free world!!!!

  • Boomarley

    Posted Nov 18, 2006 6:32 pm PT

    No. Freaking. Way. The study was biased. They assumed that Wii would remain the same for the rest of the seventh generation, and based their decision on price and old habits. The DS succeeded over the PSP because of its innovative features and games, not necessarily because of sheer quantity of fanboys or lower price. I wouldn't be surprised if this trend carried over to consoles.

  • rabbittruns

    Posted Nov 14, 2006 12:19 pm PT

    the only thing that could possibly make me shell out the kind of change they are asking for the PS3 on release would be if it came out with the next exclusive grand theft in the series, and the previews from that game were beyond amazing... as it stands, the xbox360 and the PS3 have the same games, and have negligible graphical and performance differences (as stated by game developers).. i think it hurt PS bad when they lost the exclusive rockstar GTA liscense. as an older gamer, i am not interested in doing something i have done a thousand times before on PS and PS2. i don't play FPS's on consoles as i prefer the computer for those games. what i am interested in doing is rekindling the fun of the old classics such as mario, zelda, mario kart, chronotrigger, etc. i am also really excited about a new, more interactive control scheme. i have been using the standard control scheme since the original nintendo, and it is getting more than a bit tiresome.

  • James_Bond47

    Posted Nov 14, 2006 5:02 am PT

    I think the PS3s (not Sony, Sony still has electronics to live on) lifespan relies on the success of the Blu-ray format, which IMHO is not doing as well as the HD format. It is just too expensive, and too much (extra) memory on 1 disc will end up wasted and unnecessary. Sony is simply trying to push Blu-ray. Sony is actually losing money with this, they are relying on future sales of Blu-ray products to give them money. It is a cash cow that they are trying to milk.

    The PS3 is just too expensive and impractical for the casual gamer. Especially this Christmas season, many kids will want a console for Christmas. Parents will see the Wiis new, innovative and "something for everyone" mentality. They will probably get the console with a good, mass market price point rather than a console that costs more than 2 Wiis altogether.

  • MGSTTS00

    Posted Nov 13, 2006 7:44 am PT

    "the point is the one that makes the better games that everyone enjoys is the idea" (jakie91)

    You got the point, the only thing matters are the games, but we are still complaining about tech stuff.

    Thanks dude, I had forgotten that, but that don't mean I changed my opinion about my last post =).

  • Kcube

    Posted Nov 12, 2006 1:54 pm PT

    "GamerXTQ
    Nintendo better win if they dont they will have to drop out of the console business"

    What?

    Nintendo is the only Company that makes money.Its Handhelds and Card games still dominate the market.I fail to see how the Wii Taking 2nd or even third would hurt the company in the hardware buisness.

    Some of you don't study the full story of Nintendo and that isn't a good thing.

  • GamerXTQ

    Posted Nov 12, 2006 6:29 am PT

    Nintendo better win if they dont they will have to drop out of the console business

  • jakie91

    Posted Nov 11, 2006 4:04 am PT

    See in this Gaming race i dont really care who wins and who loses, the point is that all the companies dont waste their time and money on something that will do crap. I do love nintendo and sony i find them both good companies and i love their games, and i would hate for one of them to close down. But i dont find a problem with other companys stealin other idea, yeah nintendo did have the sensor in the controler then sony got something real close to it. But thats like when the PS2 had the dvd player first then xbox got one as well, also having two analogue sticks sony had them first then, the cube,and the xbox also got two as well but then stuck them on a different side of the controller. What i'am tryin to say i doesnt matter if sony did take nintendo idea and put it in their controller or one has blue ray and one doesnt the point is the one that makes the better games that everyone enjoys is the idea, not controllers, not cords, or wires, it the GAMES, so dont bad mouth sony for takin nintendo idea soon enough every company would have done it at the end. Enjoy the games, not the equipment

  • Ironfist66

    Posted Nov 9, 2006 2:28 pm PT

    if Nintendo doesn't win they are pretty much screwed

  • bobbetybob

    Posted Nov 9, 2006 12:28 pm PT

    "Everyone here knows that if sony made a wii and nintendo the PS3, Sony would win. Do you know why? Because Sony has tremendous third party backing, they advertise like mad and always make a product look good by that. And they hype a product alot."

    as does X-Box 360....thats why Sony won't win, if someone sees an advert for Call of dury 3 on PS3 and then one for it on X-Box and sees the prices they are gonna think, why should i buy a PS3 then?
    as for Wii it's already said it's not in the console war, which is between X-box and PS3 and is basically over graphics.
    as for PSP i think it was rushed....it don't think they'd even thought massively about handhelds until Nintendo announced the DS and then i think they decided to rush and make one, that's why it sucked...almost every game a port, good grpahics but hardly any games with anything different about them, and very expensive for handhled

  • MGSTTS00

    Posted Nov 8, 2006 10:44 pm PT

    It's funny to see how desperate is sony to win, and also is funny how PS3 is trying to look like Wii, sensor in the controler, download PS1 games in the PS3, what's next???, PS3 Channels??? lol.

    GO WII!!!

  • GrimBee

    Posted Nov 7, 2006 10:30 am PT

    "Everyone here knows that if sony made a wii and nintendo the PS3, Sony would win. Do you know why? Because Sony has tremendous third party backing, they advertise like mad and always make a product look good by that. And they hype a product alot."

    Yes! Absolutely correct! Just like they did with the psp!!

    oh.. wait... my bad.

  • razu_gamer

    Posted Nov 7, 2006 4:24 am PT

    Everyone here knows that if sony made a wii and nintendo the PS3, Sony would win. Do you know why? Because Sony has tremendous third party backing, they advertise like mad and always make a product look good by that. And they hype a product alot. You do know EA are making thirty games for PS3..why because sony made sure they do...IMO...

  • rikardo10

    Posted Nov 7, 2006 4:01 am PT

    spartan 175 im with u, but i dont hope, im sure the wii is goin to kick the ps3s ass. go WII!!!!!!

  • Spartan175

    Posted Nov 7, 2006 3:10 am PT

    Honestly i hate sony systems, after i got the 1st ps i never wanted anything to do with sony! I hope Nintendo kicks Sony's ass!

  • skoomaster

    Posted Nov 6, 2006 6:10 pm PT

    why do you need HD? It barely makes games look better..also HD TV's are really expensive

  • cammoule

    Posted Nov 5, 2006 6:10 am PT

    Hey, Wii Goes FIRST!!!

  • jimjim350

    Posted Oct 29, 2006 12:45 pm PT

    after i get my wii then all i need is a ps3

  • Lunatic_Monk

    Posted Oct 29, 2006 6:20 am PT

    It's not over until the fat lady sings. I really really hope Nintendo wins this time. I am not a fanboy I have GC, PS2, amd Xbox. I just want Nintendo win it this time.

  • saugh

    Posted Oct 27, 2006 10:33 am PT

    It's intresting to see other views on the same subject. Saying the Wii will win is very one-sided without having thought about PS3's buisness tactic.

  • Pious_Maximus

    Posted Oct 26, 2006 4:25 pm PT

    Well, i think PS3 will win the console war again, ćuz they cant accept defeut, so they will do anything to win. I would like to see Nintendo taking the crown this time, i really do, but there a more Sony fanboys than Nintendos =)

  • SaiyanDragoon

    Posted Oct 26, 2006 2:01 pm PT

    unamedslayer...You should probably think a little harder.

    I'm gonna have to agree with Enterbrain, come 2007 holiday season it's apparent PS3 will be on top espicallly with a nice catalog. After considering price reductions over time, Sony definetly has things planned out.
    For the Ninetendo Wii having it's price cuts to it's also apparent, but it might not happen for awhile could be a long, think about it.

    Although, I'm pretty eager to get my game on so I will probably get a Wii first. The prediction sounds pretty accurate though, so I'm not doubting that Sony will pick up over time.

  • unnamedslayer

    Posted Oct 26, 2006 9:39 am PT

    I don't think the PS3 will ever sell as good as the Wii because it costs twice as much

  • Zonelezz

    Posted Oct 25, 2006 9:11 pm PT

    lol woot !! nintendo!

  • jay_keno

    Posted Oct 25, 2006 7:32 pm PT

    I think this is true because in one of the articles it says that there will only be 400,000 units in the US on the release date were as Wii will have many more.

    Go Nintendo

  • WisdomLink

    Posted Oct 25, 2006 5:38 pm PT

    It's only a prediction.

  • sain_skywalker

    Posted Oct 25, 2006 12:32 pm PT

    sweet

  • jerenl

    Posted Oct 25, 2006 9:26 am PT

    well if there is one thing nintendo will not see shortage but i think it will be a nice competition. although people are looking for more exiting and entertaining ways to play with a cheaper price (the wii)
    the ps3 ofers u the same x360 with a blu ray drive which analist say will be very defective why? a high cuality blu ray player from sony costs 1000$ and the ps3 will be a blue ray player for under700$ think about it
    besides every other sony format has failed

  • Griffon2k4

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 9:23 pm PT

    Shortychi6, I think if HD-DVD wins the format war, the PS3 will go the way of the Dreamcast. It would only put Sony further in the hole to have to switch to HD-DVD two years or so down the line, and then, even if they did, they still have to deal with Microsoft, who'll be releasing an HD-DVD drive for around $200 this year. That means any of the millions of gamers out there who already have a 360 and want to watch Hi-Def movies will be able to do so for less than anything else on the market. And those who don't have a 360 already will be able to go pick one off the shelf now, pick up an HD-DVD drive and be able to do everything the PS3 can do. That just may be Sony's biggest issue right now. It'll be six months at least before they expect to have PS3 in a shelf stocking supply. That just gives Microsoft more time to expand their share. Bottom Line: Sony can't afford for Blu-Ray NOT to win the format war. Unfortunately, it just might be inevitable unless Blu-Ray suddenly becomes cheaper to produce. I was just in a Best Buy Sunday, and an HD-DVD player was demo'd right next to a Blu-Ray player. The crowd was around the HD-DVD player, mostly because of price. $999 just doesn't compare to $499. Sure the discs can hold a lot more, but movie studios can't utilize all of that practically. And even if they could fill it with 20 hours of special features, the average joe wouldn't care. I would say about a good 65% percent of the special features on DVD's aren't watched as it is. Most consumers who want HD movies are going to want it for less money, and HD-DVD will give them that.

    And that's the rub. If Blu-Ray doesn't perform well, neither will the PS3 overall. Personally, I think Sony should have left Blu-Ray completely out of the PS3. That way they could still survive without it. Microsoft considered building HD-DVD into the 360 at one point but erred on the side of caution and left it out. If Blu-Ray becomes the HD movie standard, it won't kill the 360.

  • shortychi6

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 3:11 pm PT

    Griffon, thats a good point you got with the WiiHD. If thats what if would be call. I get the point though. Do you think it would be cheaper if PS3 came out with the HD DVD later if the BLu-ray didn't work? From what I seen the HD DVD's go from 499-799. At least now thats the price. I say they could always switch if nessecary.

  • shortychi6

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 2:44 pm PT

    What up Party people! Its getting closer.....awwww...yeah!!!

  • encryptkeeper

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 10:45 am PT

    Besides, they said the same thing about the PSP vs the DS and there is *NO* trace of that happening soon. All three consoles will probably share the same number of consoles sold through their lifetimes (not counting those that buy 2 or 3 PS3s)

  • encryptkeeper

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 10:41 am PT

    Goddamn people just buy the console that has more of the games you want to play that you can't play on something else.

  • XerenX_Storm

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 8:07 am PT

    i will never buy a ps3 because it is too expensive for wat you get the ps3 is only expensive because of its blu ray drive which i dont even think is good

    i am gonna get an Xbox 360 for Graphics Power and a Nintendo wii for fun Gameplay.

  • kavadias1981

    Posted Oct 24, 2006 1:20 am PT

    Sure it's possible. Then again it is possible that the Xbox360 could be the most popular system, or the Wii might be. Or games consoles may not exist in 10 years due to insane production costs and poor sales. Who knows. Lets just buy the consoles we like and enjoy them while they are here.

  • Cretosdx

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 7:29 pm PT

    Why are we even discussing this. Shouldn't we, the gamer, want both consoles to do well, so we can play great games. Who cares who is in first place! I like all the consoles and hope to play great games on all 3 of them.

  • twilight_link9

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 6:58 pm PT

    Hasn't Sony thought Nintendo might make price cuts as well?

  • RavenBlade_9

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 5:12 pm PT

    PC technology is already starting to surpass that of the 360 and PS3, which we all knew would happen. I believe Nintendo has finally made true its stance that they are not part of the console war; because of the revolutionary gameplay mechanics presented by the Wii and its wide target audience, it has attributes a kin to both the PS3, and 360, as well as PC. Nintendo will rely on its own ability to produce quality Wii games, and technology; 3rd party support for the Wii is just a nice addition that is not required for sucess of the system. The reason the Gamecube nearly failed was because it had nothing unique about it compared to the PS2 (fisrt out the door) and the Xbox (Live, Halo). But obviously that won't be a problem for the Wii. A sucessful launch, and life span for the Wii is inevitable.

  • hamnut

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 3:39 pm PT

    Puh-leaaaseee. Better start dropping price Microsoft. I'm sure there will be a great price reduction during november, for the 360 of course.

  • ACDC19

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 2:40 pm PT

    Don't get me wrong I like Sony but who wants to pay $600when you could get the Wii($250) and the 360($400) for $650 all together. I would just pay $50 more dollars so that I could get 2 systems instead of one. That and I don't think the PS3 has that great of launch titles.

  • Griffon2k4

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 10:02 am PT

    There are some people arguing the PS3's potential life span and lack of a need for a system upgrade for 10 years. There are also arguments that the Wii will need a system upgrade to compete sooner than 5 years. A couple of points here:

    1) The PS3's potential life span is very likely to be cut short if Blu-Ray loses the format war to HD-DVD (and that is extremely likely to happen).

    2) Nintendo released the Gamecube at $200, then within 2.5 years was down to $150 and then $100. They still had some great exclusives that combined with so low a price point they still moved consoles and made good money doing it. 3) Nintendo released DS while the Gameboy Advance was still selling hot. Almost 2 years later, the DSlite came out and it's selling like hotcakes. Does anyone remember how many different Gameboy's there are/were?

    4) Any business man knows this saying: "Money now is worth money than money later".

    Let me add this up everyone:

    By tieing the PS3 to an experimental new disc format in the middle of a format war, there is NO ONE who can guarantee the PS3 will still be around in 3 years, much less 10. Nintendo doesn't have that problem because they aren't tied to either format (neither is the 360) and their selling point is a new way to play games (interactive next gen for all you "wii's not next gen" haters). Given Nintendo's history of successfully improving on existing hardware and still moving product, they could very well release a WiiHD in 2.5 years when the hardware to do so is cheaper and still move product profitably.

    The fact is with HD, we're getting immensely close to the threshold where the human eye won't be able to discern a graphical improvement. There is only so high you can go. That's the real reason Sony is shooting for 10 years before their next console. The problem is to manage that, they're selling the console at a high premium now on experimental technology and losing money now at the gamble of making money later. Nintendo on the other hand will make money out of the gates, and should they need to upgrade to HD, they can do so combining it with a tried and true new way to play video games. And since "Money now is worth more than more later", I don't think people would complain to much about shelling out another $250-300 in 2-3 years on a WiiHD, when they just spent $250 today on a Wii. They would still come out cheaper than buying a PS3 today. Keep in mind that this business model has already proven effective with the DS.

  • wolf360rev

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 4:06 am PT

    It would outsell the wii if the ps3 actually had games for it out by then.

  • 2TrickedOut

    Posted Oct 23, 2006 2:06 am PT

    What you pay is what you get Wii is a cheaper console and the graphics show that. im not dissing the wii its just not a powerhouse like the ps3 or 360. Hardcore gamers will have both a 360 and a wii or a ps3 and a wii or all 3 in some cases. wii will sell better because of price and the younger target market. Its also a more family friendly system. It will also be a great college student system. Imagine playing wii sports high or wasted. lol

  • Gamepro2421

    Posted Oct 22, 2006 4:24 pm PT

    I dont really think price matters too much on whether or not Sony will outsell Nintendo or visa versa. I think it matters more on who is buying nintendo systems. The majority of the systems are being bought by parents to give to their children for Xmass. The majority of the parents will want to buy the system with more kid-friendly games (ie. not rated T or M) and will therefore buy a Wii. Then if you look at the long run, by the time people who have only invested in a Wii are ready to purchase another console Blue-ray players will have dropped way down in price. So families will most likey already have a blue-ray player in their homes which would make them lean towards purchasing an XBox360 for (pending price drops) anywhere between 1 and 2 hundred dollars cheaper than a PS3....So in the long run I say the Wii sells more than the PS3.

  • ClaudeLv250

    Posted Oct 22, 2006 12:32 pm PT

    My ass. The most anticipated PS3 games probably aren't even going to come out until 2008.

  • limelight022

    Posted Oct 22, 2006 8:44 am PT

    Well put Shub-Niggurath.

    I agree.

  • Shub-Niggurath

    Posted Oct 21, 2006 9:21 pm PT

    I'm doubtful that the PS3 will truly outsell the Wii...ever. Price wise it's just too much of a deal to get a Wii. The PS3 may be "expandable" and all that jazz but so is a Dell or Gateway PC which can cost a whole heck of a lot less than $600. With the "base model" PS3 getting a price drop I think it was just Sony's execs removing their heads from their rectums and realizing "Holy over-priced consoles, Batman! This thing is too freaking pricey!" The Wii will remain strong and I think that, especially in Japan where the DVD market still isn't that old, people aren't ready to jump to Blu-Ray and buy the PS3 like they did the PS2. I think, in the end, entertainment per dollar value (base price, fudge your "future add-ons") the "under-powered" and "under-equipped" Wii will probably maintain a good solid hold in Japan. Yes, Sony will do well, too. But I don't think they'll be able to outsell the Wii in Japan. Remember the PS2 outsold everyone when it first hit Japan because it was a $300 DVD player in a land of $500-$1000+ players. I don't think that with the limited Blu-Ray disc support in the industry right now, people in Japan are going to be willing to make the switch.

  • ste90

    Posted Oct 21, 2006 2:43 pm PT

    Buy the system you want to buy. But in a sense the Wii will sell more in my opinion because they have more systems. But I dont think that this story is a console war kinda discussion. It will depend on either money, games, or what the console offers. But this year and maybe next year I think the Wii will sell more than the PS3 because the PS3 takes longer to create and has more development problems, while the Wii seems to be doing but im not sure. But if the PS3 has a steady shipments who knows. But i dont think anyone should really be bothering with this story its only a opinion. Face it though the Wii will ship and possibly sell more than the PS3 simply because there is more and it is cheaper. Once the PS3 is readily available and possible cheaper, who knows what will happen.

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