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DFC: Next-gen war potentially win-win-win

Xbox 360, PS3, and Wii are all viable systems no matter what, according to DFC Intelligence report.

Research firm DFC Intelligence released a game-industry brief providing its lay of the land heading into the PlayStation 3 and Wii launches this November, and the organization is abstaining from backing any particular horse in the race. The brief is titled "Win, Place, or Show: Does it Really Matter," and it suggests that there are more important considerations than who is going to sell the most consoles this year.

"The console hardware battle is a marathon, not a sprint, and will be played out over the next three years," the firm said. "It is unlikely that this holiday season will reveal any major surprises that would cause us to make a major market reassessment."

DFC has been vocal in the past about its opinion that Sony's pricing of the PS3 has left the door open for Microsoft and Nintendo to claim plenty of market share at the electronics giant's expense. To stay in the hunt, DFC thinks Sony needs to keep the PlayStation 2 market active to postpone consumers from making the leap to the next-generation systems and to make the PS3's price competitive by late 2007. One move the firm applauded was Sony's announcement that it would include an HDMI port in both versions of the PS3 hardware, noting that it should cut down on confusion and keep the cheaper bundle from being perceived as a "crippled" version of the system.

"Another key point is that under all scenarios the new game systems from Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are all viable platforms," the brief said. "In the past generation there was one platform, the PS2, that far outclassed the field. Going forward we do not see a scenario where any platform has that kind of dominance over the next five years. Even under the worst case scenario, Microsoft and Nintendo do better with the Xbox 360 and the Wii than they did with the Xbox and GameCube."

And while the differences in the three main hardware platforms will make porting games a challenge for developers, DFC believes those unique qualities each platform possesses may spur the industry's growth in the coming generation.

"Increasingly consumers own multiple platforms on which they play games," the brief said. "There are many opportunities to reach a growing consumer base. Unfortunately the market is also getting substantially more competitive and the pitfalls are growing just as fast. Even the largest companies risk becoming overextended as they try to be all things, to all people, in all places."

245 Comments

  • Ryo-Hazuki

    Posted Nov 17, 2006 12:01 pm GMT

    Then I think you'll be disappointed, because Wii will be last, IMHO. Time will tell.

  • cfamgcn

    Posted Oct 20, 2006 9:38 pm GMT

    It's a good point, but I want the Wii to win the next system war...

  • JROCCC

    Posted Oct 3, 2006 7:11 am GMT

    Anyway I am going to tell you why Sony isn't going to win this console war. SOny is being very cheap right now. It has nothing to do with them having production problems. They simply don't want to put out 2 million systems and take a mass loss all at once. This conservative will leave Sony behind because they aren't going to be able to keep up with systems that are being sent by the masses to stores. Someone said PS3 rocked TGS , I would hope they did it is only where the PS3 homeland. They have 100 percent support over their they should own TGS I bet MS owns in Europe and US though. Japan alone doesn't give you a victory in the war of the systems. PS3 probably won't start shipping mass units until around summer maybe fall because they want to save as much money as they can. This is going to leave sony in the dust on system sales. MS has more systems on release then they did and they weren't scared of the loss but Sony is terrified of loosing who knows how many dollars on a blu ray player and that chip.

  • artorius

    Posted Oct 3, 2006 6:20 am GMT

    I have owned an Xbox360 since it's release, and am thuroughly pleased with the system, Saints Row, Oblivion, GRAW, Dead Rising, DOA 4 are all great games and those are just a handful of great games available for the 360. What about games being released soon for the 360 titles like Splinter Cell Double Agent, Gear of War, Halo 3, Halo Wars. Blue Dragon, Lost Odysey, Phantasy Star Universe, Too Human, Mass Effect, Fable 2, Fear, Half Life 2 etc.
    I plan on buying a Wii because it is more geared towards the family, I will be playing wii games with my wife and kids and have a blast. As far as the PS3 it doesn't seem to offer anything as far as games that I want, MGS4 I never liked 1-3 so that's out, Final Fantasy XIII won't be out for 2 years or so, maybe by then the price of the PS3 will drop.

  • djlos04

    Posted Oct 2, 2006 9:56 pm GMT

    johndoe1893 is correct when he says PS3 just took its inventions from the 360 and the Wii. SInce when did it have motion technology, well after the Wii showed up. And now it doesnt have a rumble feature, wow not enough time after they stole ideas to perfect your work. And then the 360 has good ground in the market now, it will not be forgotten great games and even better graphics means more units sold. the winner of the next gen...not sony. Sorry blu-ray.

  • MacUser511

    Posted Oct 2, 2006 8:42 pm GMT

    This just in: Videogame Market cannot be predicted. More at 10:00.

  • JEEBUS_BOGONDO

    Posted Oct 2, 2006 6:25 pm GMT

    hey I like crack! who talking about crack? Where can I find some boogersugar around here??

  • johndoe1893

    Posted Oct 2, 2006 10:44 am GMT

    I kind of feel like the XBox 360 is in a tough place, similar to the problems of the Gamecube. Whereas the PS3 has the best hardware, and the Wii offers a new and different experience, what does the 360 bring to the table? It has solid hardware, but the PS3's is far superior. I'm sure it will boast a fairly solid library of games, but nothing with the intrigue or freshness of the Wii. I think it might wind up being the forgotten system in the cycle.


    metaldeath if you think the 360 is going to end up like gamecube well than ive got to say, please put down your crack pipe and step away from the ether. First of all Xbox 360 has more to offer than PS3, have you forgotten xbox live, and xbox aracade? And PS3 and the 360s hardware is pretty much the same in terms of preformance, but since 360 has been out longer devs have found out how to use its potential more, so games will look better for the 360 than the PS3 for sometime. And by the time PS3 comes out the xbox would of sold 10 million units, thats going to be a pretty hard console to forget. What does the PS3 offer thats so unique? They stole eveything from the 360 and wii. Go smoke some more crack fanboy.

  • metaldeath87

    Posted Oct 2, 2006 12:51 am GMT

    I kind of feel like the XBox 360 is in a tough place, similar to the problems of the Gamecube. Whereas the PS3 has the best hardware, and the Wii offers a new and different experience, what does the 360 bring to the table? It has solid hardware, but the PS3's is far superior. I'm sure it will boast a fairly solid library of games, but nothing with the intrigue or freshness of the Wii. I think it might wind up being the forgotten system in the cycle.

  • e1viento

    Posted Oct 2, 2006 12:03 am GMT

    Go buy a crystal ball.... rub it in circular motions... then you might get an analysis as accurate as these research firms...

    The future is hazy. There will soon be 3 awesome game systems, each with their own strengths and weaknesses, available to the masses. Who will the winner be???

    The consumer. Those who have a bias for one console, regardless of what reason, be it feasible or not... hey.. it's their opinion, as long as they don't infringe or try to put down other's opinions, it's all good. Otherwise, their bias comes off as blatant fanboyism.

  • darthhoush

    Posted Oct 1, 2006 7:21 pm GMT

    Whoa, whoa, time out! This is like the fourth report of what's going to happen. All of them find something different. Even the analysts don't know the outcome of this three-way fight. I think we all should just wait until 2007 to see the actual facts, not these guessing-games. I'm not bashing any system, but come on, these reports are pretty stupid. Overpaid office worker to analyze the outcome of the system war? WTHeck! GameSpot should stop posting these and stop giving some of you misleads of the unknown outcome! -Darth Housh, Dark Lord of the Sith

  • microwaveman

    Posted Oct 1, 2006 12:20 pm GMT

    if all the consoles do good, the companies can focus on making steps in a different direction. it would be great.

  • princeofgames90

    Posted Oct 1, 2006 7:02 am GMT

    Every one of them has something the other hasn't wich one wich one

  • HarrisKrishna

    Posted Oct 1, 2006 12:02 am GMT

    Wii60 will ROK

  • theKSMM

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 11:13 pm GMT

    This would be a great scenario if it truly plays out this way. Multiple successful consoles battling fiercely can only lead to more great games. I know it's difficult for lots of the rabid console fans out there to grasp, but it would be good for us all.

  • DWAI

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 10:36 pm GMT

    billy bob thornton is getting all of these systems

  • _Sam_

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 8:00 pm GMT

    I would get all of them if I could afford it

  • faidon5987

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 4:19 pm GMT

    WiiS60!!!! we all win!

  • johndoe1893

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 1:06 pm GMT

    Thank god for competition between PS3 Xbox 360 and the Wii, without it consoles would be very staleand boring. Look at communist countries, bussniess are owned by the goverment and there is never compentition, making products very uncreative un original and just bad. Its compentition that pushes companys to make there products better than the others. As long as there is compentition between Sony and Microsoft, we gamers will benifit and the companys will always work for us.

  • nev70

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 12:55 am GMT

    sieg6529
    WTF i just checked your home page and guess what 57 GAME REVIEWS AND 1 SHOOTER REVIEW ,GOLDENEYE PS2. You dont play shooters what are you on about ? You clearly dont know what a good shooter is like , so dont make VACUOUS BS STATEMENTS

  • nev70

    Posted Sep 30, 2006 12:45 am GMT

    sieg6529
    Now that Ninja Gaiden is coming out for the PS3, I see absolutely no reason to ever own an xbox in any form. If I want good shooters, I'll just buy for the PC
    ARE YOU FOR REAL thats mainly why i bought a 360 ,shooters on a huge hi def screen.NO GEARS OF WAR OR HALO FOR YOU THEN , and you claim to like shooters, bizzare logic !

  • Seraphim_24

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:20 pm GMT

    If the 20 Gig PS3 is only 40 gigs smaller than the $600 version and NO OTHER FEATURES ARE MISSING than I can possibly justify that kind of expense when and IF there's an absolute must have game for it. I am done buying Sony Systems right off the bat over what is looming in the distance. By the time the PS2 got anything worth playing I was well into my Xbox and GCN game collection and PS2 has been lagging. PSP in the mean time has only recently started getting titles I care about, that aren't just stripped down PS2 ports... PS3 has to earn my love because while the PS1 had it, the PS2 and PSP have both dissapointed me. (And please don't tell me PSP is da bomb cuz o' GTA. I think that series is horrible, and look at the trouble the series has gotten us into with the government!)

  • jimbo102671

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:06 pm GMT

    It looks like we'll be seeing the first major console war since the SNES/Genesis days, only on a larger scale as there are 3 consoles instead of 2 and each has unique ups and downs which would take me some serious space trying to explain, so I won't. (Besides, the blindly loyal fanboys would likely flame me regarding their system's downs if I did.)

    We gamers stand to win in the end, as this can potentially mean a lot of quality software in the forseeable future for all 3 consoles. Let's face it, no one wants to see a bunch of half-@$$ed games on a console that's effectively "the only game in town". That's what contributed to the fall of the Atari 2600 and the 1983 Video Game Crash.

  • -HCMF-

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 4:14 pm GMT

    well derrrrr..

  • flex49

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 2:16 pm GMT

    hey SolidFear, when you wake up from your "dreamy" PS3 fanboy hysteria please let everyone know.
    Everything you wrote has no basis on fact just your opinion.

    First of all, it's funny when people like you say why buy an xbox360 when you have a PC and can play the same game....NOT!
    You'll need a $1500 (at the least) high end PC to play the same games you can play on the 360. For that money you could buy the PS3, 360, PSP, DS and the Wii. Try playing GRAW and Oblivion on the PC.

    Secondly, all the great games you mentioned for the PS3 either have TBA tags ( which will probably mean 2008 ) or won't be out till late 2007...except Heavenly Sword which doesn't look great enough to buy a PS3 right now. I'll be getting my PS3 in Fall 2007 but I'm enjoying my 360 NOW! All you can do is talk about the future while I'm playing in the present.

    Third...the 360 is far from being all about Halo 3...and you know it! That's why I know you're a PS3 fanboy in the purest sense. You're in game console denial...LOL

  • ryokinshin6x3

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 2:04 pm GMT

    lmao theres always 2 much talk about a company failling when none of them are gonna fail

  • Slaveways

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 1:10 pm GMT

    not surprising

  • NND1

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 12:52 pm GMT

    I really don't care who wins, I just want great games on all three systems.

  • KickinIt_ftw

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 11:51 am GMT

    @Harry007:

    "after TGS whatever hype Wii and x360 had are simply gone............. ps3 owned TGS............the new ps3 demos clearly killed anything in sight "

    Assuming your argument is right - and that's a big, fat assumption judging by the usage of ellipses in this argument - how does PS3 supposedly "owning" TGS resolve the following factors: a) 100,000 japanese units, 400,000 North American units and 0 EU units at launch - and b) an ungodly high price point that has actually *angered* gamers.

    The PS3 could transform into a robotic french maid that cleans your house and doubles as combination of jetpack and bagel toaster, but if you can't afford it, you can't afford it. Sadly, it doesn't (...I might consider saving up for that.) Add to that a somewhat lackluster launch lineup, plus the real costs necessary to actually utilize the system to it's fullest - PS3 ($500 - $600), 1080p HDTV (~$1500), HDMI cables (~%40 - $70) and tax and you're looking at around $2300 for a game console. BEFORE you buy games for it.

    Sorry, but the Sony has rubbed an awful lot of consumers the wrong way by pricing themselves out of the mainstream market - and not just parents. Even many pro-Sony gamers are of the opinion that while they *can* afford a PS3, they *can't* justify blowing through 2.5k for one, myself included.

    @jalmodov:

    Yeah they really do have a pair. A big, brass pair that they've pretty much been clanging on the table since E3.

    Anyway, back to my previous point for sec... let's say that the DFC Intelligence report is spot on and that somehow the console war for this gen results in the global gaming market being EXACTLY 33% Sony, 33% MS and 33% Nintendo. MS has stated that they expect to turn a profit in 2007 at the earliest. Sony states that it will be 2008 or 2009 before they stop bleeding money. From Day 1 Nintendo is making profit. Who really wins?

  • Dualmask

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 11:29 am GMT

    I just found it kind of humorous when SolidFear said this: "As for the Wii. I will NOT be buying one. It does absolutely nothing for me. I don't care for a new controller, when I can get something similar, and with pure next-gen graphics and features with the PS3. And guess what? I think consumers would agree. They look at graphics first, and that is what sticks in their mind."

    Yeah, consumers look at graphics first. That's why the Nintendo DS is outselling the PSP everywhere.

    The first thing I think goes through a gamer's mind when they're picking a game out is "what do you do in this game?" not "how good does this game look?". I'm no analyst, but the way I see it, anyone who thinks the Wii is going to tank is deluding themselves. I personally believe that the Playstation brand name is strong enough that Sony is going to have a strong market share despite the PS3's ridiculous price, but I also believe the Wii is doing a great job of convincing folks that they're offering a new gaming experience, and that's going to be the only home console where you'll find Mario and Zelda.

    I personally want a PS3 and a Wii. I'm not going to bother with X360 because after a year I have yet to see anything I really want to play on that system. Never had an original Xbox either--strictly PS2 and Cube.

    It's good to know some folks recognize that there really aren't any "console wars". The industry is growing and there are good gaming experiences to be offered on all three of the next gen consoles.

  • CleptoPots

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 11:25 am GMT

    This is one of the best analysts I've ever heard. A good perspective, indeed.

  • agentkooper

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:46 am GMT

    I liked this report more when it was called "Carpool"....

    Staring Tom Arnold

  • jalmodov

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:37 am GMT

    Well said KickinIt_ftw, well said. I really admire what Nintendo has done. They have giant brass balls ever there.

  • Imavnas

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:37 am GMT

    About time an article on Gamespot speaks the truth. It's definitely all about games games games, and come this time next year, all 3 systems will have AAA titles supporting it. It's definitely a win for us gamers.

  • specialed

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:36 am GMT

    harry007 said, "as expected MS has paid analysts again to say ps3 is on par with x360........."under the worst case scenario x360 and Wii perform better than ps3"?????????????????

    after TGS whatever hype Wii and x360 had are simply gone.............

    ps3 owned TGS............the new ps3 demos clearly killed anything in sight"

    Are you blind, or just illiterate? If you quote something, quote it right...
    it SAID..."Even under the worst case scenario, Microsoft and Nintendo do better with the XBOX 360 AND THE WII than they did with the Xbox and GameCube." We know who loves Sony, dont we? Not the analysts...

  • harry007

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:22 am GMT

    as expected MS has paid analysts again to say ps3 is on par with x360........."under the worst case scenario x360 and Wii perform better than ps3"?????????????????

    after TGS whatever hype Wii and x360 had are simply gone.............

    ps3 owned TGS............the new ps3 demos clearly killed anything in sight

  • babycabra

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:02 am GMT

    all these fairweather fans are right. no matter what console you buy you're gonna have fun. even if you're one of those people who buys a ps3, you'll probably have some fun. does that mean you'll stop putting down everything you see related to the 360 or wii? no, not at all. but while you're sitting alone in the dark on friday night playin final fantasy you'll be enjoying it, because that's what playstation fans like. Us wii and xbox fans will also be having plenty of fun too, but at much less cost. to sum this all up, ps3 sucks. did my comment have any integrity or consistency? no. but i know it'll spark a sony fanboy riot and i just love reading their grammatically incorrect slander.

  • KickinIt_ftw

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 10:01 am GMT

    I think the real winner of this gen for consoles will be Nintendo, since their systems will be profitable *immediately*, versus in 2008 (potentially) for the 360 and 2009 by the earliest estimates for the PS3. The purpose of selling consoles and games isn't to get the biggest market share percentage, it's to make the biggest profit.

    That said, marketshare shouldn't be a stumbling block for Nintendo this time around either. Since nintendo's E3 showing, polls on websites such as GameFAQs have consistently shown that roughly 60% to 65% of gamers polled are planning on buying a Wii.

    These are huge numbers that reflect an unusual combination of consumers:

    a) Nintendo faithful, anxious to try a new, more interactive take on classics like Zelda.
    b) Gamers that intend to make the Wii their 2nd console i.e. "Wii60"-types.
    c) Traditional non-gamers. Ex. Your mom, who hasn't played a game since Duck Hunt.

    Hardcore gamer elitists can flame and "/sarcasm" all they want about group C... but the smart money is on casual gamers playing the role of wildcard in this generation of games. A solid barometer of this concept in motion is the massive success of simple, non-conforming games like Nintendogs or Brain Age. A non-nintendo related example is The Sims, which is far and away the highest selling series of all time.

    To me, the Nintendo Revolution is just that. A coup. Nintendo has turned convention on it's ear by refusing to participate in the hardware cold war. While Sony and MS are battling for gigaflop supremacy, Nintendo has quietly managed to steal gaming from elitists and give it back to the masses.

    Whether you like them or not, you have to give them credit for one of the most ballsy gambits in gaming history; going back to simple, approachable gaming in an era of ever increasing complexity.

  • wild_world_girl

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:37 am GMT

    drewt003:

    "PS3 model has all the features that the highend 360 has plus an HDMI port and an actaul blu-ray player built in"

    Umm.. I think you mean *hardware" features. I guess you forgot about the games. Isn't that the whole point? Remember? The GAMES?

    And you are a ranting fanboy. You have turned what could be read as good news for all of us into a fanboy screaming match. This is what people hear when they read your long-winded posts with conveniently tacked on with revelations that you are unbiased because you are buying all 3 systems:

    WAAAA! Sony rules!!! WAAAAA! WAAAA!

  • DuaneDog

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:36 am GMT

    I own a PS2 myself and have an Xbox 360 as well. The thing I really believe that is an unknown is the quality of Sony's online network and the software they use in general to power the PS3. I've bought a lot of Sony products and to be honest, their software is downright horrible. Sony minidisc player I have is ok for the player, but the software on the PC is downright pathetic. The software is like they had no clue on interface design or how to create an application that is fast and responsibe. Nearly unusable IMO. It is no wonder they are getting their asses handed to them by Apple in the MP3 player market. I own a Sony digital camera. Fine camera, HORRIBLE software and drivers that will not even function on some PC's. I know because I worked with an engineering department that had dozens of the Sony cameras, now they go with Cannon because the software sony provided was so bad. Much of PS3's credibility, for the serious gamers, will depend on Sony's ability to compete with Xbox live. I also believe the WII has a real opportunity with Sony's problems with production and now their high profile quality problems with batteries and other issues. I for one will be very suprised to see a level of quality in the PS3 OS that is seen in the Xbox360 given Sony's quality of software design in other areas. Guess we will see soon enough.

  • Smartiepants

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:35 am GMT

    SolidFear, you accuse other people of being fanboys, then you make a statement like, "The PS3's showing at TGS was far superior to X06. The PlayStation 3 has more impressive game by far." That sounds like fanboy talk to me; fanboys always state their opinions as if they're facts.

  • SupremeRoyalist

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:35 am GMT

    i plan to buy all 3, i already got the 360 so thats one down. i beleive all 3 are going to do good but microsoft is goin to have the edge because their system has been out for nearly a year and they are coming out with alot of interesting hardware for the system. sony is going to keep up because their powerfull platform and nintendo because of their price.

  • SnowFarmer

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:06 am GMT

    Isn't this the same ground of "experts" that were predicitng doom for the PS3 not that long ago?

    Humm... It must be nice to get paid to make stuff up. Even if this time their predictions seem more reasonable.

  • HXCDEW

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 9:05 am GMT

    PS3 FTW!

  • jcloverboy

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 8:55 am GMT

    I don't consider Wii as part of the next-gen war because their hardware is that of the generation we ar ecoming out of. This is not to say that the Wii won't do well.
    I will wait and see how much 3rd party support continues with the wii into it's 2nd and 3rd year b4 wasting money on another Nintendo console like I did with Gamecube.

    1 Mario platform title, 1 Zelda title, a mario kart and a super smash was not enough to justify the purchase of my Gamecube. I'm already opposed to the Wii-mote (I know many are in to the idea and many are not). I don't like the idea of have to keep my "controller" upright throughout gameplay. Sometimes I wanna lay back and play. PS3 and Xbox 360 are more than fine.

  • bobreturns

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 8:53 am GMT

    WII WII WII WII till i die lol im not a nerd

  • Lepuke

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 8:51 am GMT

    Ninja Gaiden is great and all, but to base your entire console loyalty to Sony based on a enhanced port of a 2 year old Xbox 1 game is kinda ignorant.
    I have a 360 now, and plan on getting a PS3 in fall 2007 when it actually has some good games I cant already get on PC or 360.
    Last generation of consoles I went with a PS2 and Gamecube. (because of Zelda and RE4) I skipped Xbox.

  • sieg6529

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 8:17 am GMT

    Now that Ninja Gaiden is coming out for the PS3, I see absolutely no reason to ever own an xbox in any form. If I want good shooters, I'll just buy for the PC.

  • zman1

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 8:08 am GMT

    i'll probably end up with all three consoles just like i did last generation. all three offer something that i want that the other doesnt have. microsoft has halo and gear of war. sony has mgs4 and ninja gaiden sigma. nintendo has zelda and mario. so i totally agree with the article. each company will have some kind of success.

  • Dr_Corndog

    Posted Sep 29, 2006 7:50 am GMT

    This is probably the most rational prediction anyone's made, although it admittedly doesn't attempt to predict too much.

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