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Analyst: Game sales up 7 percent in August

[UPDATE] Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter predicts the forthcoming monthly NPD report will bring more good news; lowers PS3, raises Wii hardware-sales estimates for 2006.

Though many predicted it would be a year of doom and gloom, 2006 has turned out to be not too bad for the game industry. Summer, in particular, saw robust game sales. In June, $444 million in US console software was sold, an increase of 15 percent versus the same period in 2005. In July, $386 million in console games was sold, an increase of 22 percent versus the year before. From April, console software sales have increased an average of 11 percent per month.

As for August, Wall Street analysts are predicting that it, too, will best the same period in 2005, albeit by a smaller amount that the previous two months. Today, Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities forecast that $360 million of console games were sold last month, 7 percent more than in 2005.

"Our estimate reflects $140 million in sales contribution from new platforms (Xbox 360, PSP, and DS) representing year-over-year growth of $108 million," said Pachter in a note issued today. "We expect current-generation software sales of $220 million, reflecting a decline of 28 percent (or $86 million) compared to last year."

And, with the launch of both the Wii and PlayStation 3 due by year's end, Pachter thinks the situation will only get rosier. "We now believe that declines in current-generation software sales will be more than offset by contributions from next-generation software sales," he said. "Much depends upon the launch timing and quantities for the PS3 and Wii, but should both consoles launch as represented by Sony and Nintendo, we expect overall 2006 US sales to be higher than 2005 levels."

As for third-party publishers, Pachter predicts that, percentage-wise, the month's big winners would be Midway ($4 million in monthly revenue, up 59 percent year-on-year), Take-Two ($20 million, up 31 percent), and THQ ($22 million, up 30 percent). By percentage, losers are pegged as being Majesco ($2 million, down 4 percent), Activision ($14 million, down 6 percent), Electronic Arts ($130 million, down 11 percent), and Atari ($4 million, down 33 percent).

But while widely respected, Pachter's predictions of the NPD August numbers are just that--predictions. The actual numbers are expected to be released later this week.

[UPDATE] Pachter also issued his revised estimates for game software sales for all of 2006. Citing "better-than-expected positive trends," he now predicts that combined US and European game sales will enjoy a 3 percent increase over 2005, versus the 3 percent decline he predicted in February. In addition, Pachter tweaked his 2007 US/EU software sales estimate to a 15 percent year increase (down from 16 percent), and 2008 estimate for both territories to 15 (down from 17 percent).

Furthermore, Pachter adjusted his combined US/EU sales forecasts for the PSP and DS. "We are lowering ... our forecast for PSP sales from 8.5 million to 7.4 million, and increasing our expectation for DS sales from 6.5 million to 8 million," he said. The analyst fueled further console fanboy flame wars by slashing his worldwide 2006 PS3 hardware sales estimate by a 1 million units to 3 million and raising his 2006 worldwide Wii hardware sales by 500,000 to 4 million.

70 Comments

  • metdevthegamer

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 9:43 pm GMT

    duque501 said:
    "From 500000 to 4 Millions? God, this guy change those predictions in a drastic way,"

    By 500,000 to 4 million, not from.

  • duque501

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 7:45 pm GMT

    From 500000 to 4 Millions? God, this guy change those predictions in a drastic way, Wiht this mega changes, the analyst are losing theyr credibility from 1 to 1000000

  • metdevthegamer

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 7:30 pm GMT

    Analysts...

  • comthitnuong

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 7:05 pm GMT

    cuz people buy 60 dollar games

  • gamer_10001

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 3:06 pm GMT

    jaggy_12: He said that he raised his Wii prediction by 500,000, his prediction for Wii sales is 4 million.

  • _Sam_

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 2:28 pm GMT

    the next-gen games cost too much

  • jaggy_12

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 2:18 pm GMT

    500 000 wii's? you mean 5 million. 3 million ps3s? You mean 0.

  • AKGermany

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 1:00 pm GMT

    Actually AKGermany, Sony announced that they expect to ship 2 Million units by the end of the year. The 500K number you are refering to is what will be available at launch. Furthermore, not sure if Pachter needs to get fired just because he didn't expect Sony to implode upon itself. Sony had been misleading everyone for months, denying that there was any production problems until just recently.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Your comments are appreciated, but in my opinion analysts are paid "to know better". If they just give us numbers based on official press releases, then what's the point? Anybody can look those up. There have been rumors of problems in PS3 production for quite some time, so if you take Sonys word for granted it's a big risk and a kind of a bet.

    Pachter was also wrong when he did his forecast of software sales for the last few months, so obviously his firms methods and predictions are flawed.

    My problem is not so much with Pachter as a person (although he is quoted here the most) but with analysts in general. Why are their guesses - and that's what they are, even if they're informed guesses more newsworthy than those of you, me, any Gamespot editor or video game blogger?

  • ValKilmerStyle

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 12:31 pm GMT

    I'm really not surprised at this. People like me (college student, part-time job) simply can't afford to pay $600 for a PS3, and that's the age group most game companies are targeting now. For that much money wouldn't you rather get a Wii or a 360 with a whole mess of games to go with it? Evidently the economy stiffs think so.

  • EddyPee

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 12:19 pm GMT

    500000 wiis sold?
    Crazy man.
    5 million or bust ^_^

  • klactose

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 11:00 am GMT

    AKGermany
    "When oh when will Michael Pachter get fired? He lowered his PS3 shipment expectation to 3 million when in fact today it was announced that it will only be 500000.
    I'm sorry, but if you have THAT little insider knowledge you should quit your job, because you don't know much more than almost anybody else!"

    ------------------------------------

    Actually AKGermany, Sony announced that they expect to ship 2 Million units by the end of the year. The 500K number you are refering to is what will be available at launch. Furthermore, not sure if Pachter needs to get fired just because he didn't expect Sony to implode upon itself. Sony had been misleading everyone for months, denying that there was any production problems until just recently.

  • PrinceAdam11

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 9:13 am GMT

    with all these delays, the ps3 will never come out...

  • Sundemann

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 7:14 am GMT

    Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii 4evah

    I wiill say no more...

  • t-roland

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 4:45 am GMT

    "The analyst fueled further console fanboy flame wars by slashing his worldwide 2006 PS3 hardware sales estimate by a 1 million units to 3 million and raising his 2006 worldwide Wii hardware sales by 500,000 to 4 million. "

    - That's it, I am not going anywhere near the system wars board the next 3 months.

  • AKGermany

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 4:04 am GMT

    When oh when will Michael Pachter get fired? He lowered his PS3 shipment expectation to 3 million when in fact today it was announced that it will only be 500000.
    I'm sorry, but if you have THAT little insider knowledge you should quit your job, because you don't know much more than almost anybody else!

  • jazzkid212

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 3:58 am GMT

    yea harry007 theres only 2 million ps3s worldwide at launch meaning only fanatics willing to pay a grand atleast on ebay will get one however the wii for what looks to be 200 will have about2 million just for the us alone which do you think is better a grand or 200 dollars i dont know about you but i work for my money and the less i have to spend the better

  • daqua_99

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 3:36 am GMT

    Lol .... why was the Wii only originally 500 000??

  • Lord_Regnier

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 3:32 am GMT

    HA! the Wii and DS will rule, plus sony have delayed the PS3 in Europe and the rest of the world until march 2007.

  • saosebastiao

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 2:12 am GMT

    you never know if ps3 will beat everyone...ps2 only kicked other consoles sales because of the hype(rip dreamcast).
    if the hype of the ps3 is still not at its best state...well...we'll see...

    "i'm not buying ps3 because is expensive as hell...sony please reconsider"

  • eiru

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 1:24 am GMT

    blahhh analyst crap

  • Ices100

    Posted Sep 6, 2006 12:39 am GMT

    Sure that's the same thing they said about the psp so called best system in the world lol, and at the e3 all everyone wanted to see was the wii. I mean they diodn't have 5 hour lines for it not to be sold out this year duh, and anyone to say other wise is stupid or blind.

    P.S playstation is not a computer and will never be so please don't confuse the two k.

  • jakeboudville

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 11:59 pm GMT

    very interesting

  • Nint3nd0_Fr3ak

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 11:58 pm GMT

    It is so hilarious how angry all of you sony fanboys get. I will be gettin a PS3 in 2007 btw. Its funny how insecure all of you are. The fact that the Wii will outsell the PS3 kills you inside. The DS Is beating the PSP in america by a ratio of 2.1:1 and in japan by a ratio of 5:1. I expect the Wii to follow suit.

  • sinceps1

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 11:13 pm GMT

    "" ALL" the casual gamers out there who may or may not have internet access or visit this site are waiting out for the PS3's launch! Im sure sales will pick up when all 3 console hit the market but Sony no matter what anyone say's is poised to win by a margin. It took Toyota & Honda 30 years to out sale Ford & GM! Thers no way in hell Ms or N can outsell Sony in a single gen.""

    LOL, all the casual gamers are waiting for the ps3-- all the casual gamers are P-o-o-r they won't be able to afford a super computer, and another thing, When ford was first making cars the communication of the time limited knowledge about Other companies cars.... With the internet oppinions change daily and like the wind.... DO NOT expect casual gamers to have a da*n clue about what they should buy. Kind of like most of today's US Voters :/ They don't know who to vote for so they stay home on election day

  • Kravyn81

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 10:20 pm GMT

    You know what? There's lady down the block from me that can predict the same thing, only she uses a crystal ball and only answers to the name Madame Floosey.

  • teknocack

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 10:16 pm GMT

    "harry007
    as always the US analysts are being paid by MS to talk trash against SONY.
    total BS..........3 milion ps3s would be sold by 2006 meaning 1 million would remain on the shelves.

    now do you want us to believe that?
    with a loyal fanbase of 100 million how could one expect that especially when ps3 is 5x superior to xbox 360 and can challenge the computational power of the supercomputers of the late nineties.

    Wii beating the ps3?????????????is tht even a prediction?????????

    total BS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

    Spoken like a true fanboy who either had no brain or completely disengaged it. US analysts being paid by MS, total BS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pristine Sony would NEVER try that, would they? If it weren't for the fact that you can actually put a passable sentence together I would say you should still be breast feeding. Thanks for keeping my faith in humanity at an all time low.

    As for the article, analysts have one of the best jobs in the world. If they are right they get to crow about it, if they are wrong, they eat crow which doesn't taste so bad over an open fire with a little salt, pepper, and basted with butter. Mmmmm, just like chicken. I happen to agree with Wii outselling PS3, but disagree with PS3 not selling out unless he knows something we don't about supply.

  • t-bag11

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 9:19 pm GMT

    not that i rely on analysts but i think the point the wii is going to sell more than the ps3 is apparent. $600 for a console + extra for cables = too high for most people. sony has lost support as of late from casual gamers.
    Myugenjin you're in denial. all it takes is one generation for one company to outsell the other. who used to be #1? that's right nintendo. who's making a big comeback? nintendo. the ds is a prime example of this, beating out the psp in sales. if even the competition (microsoft) praises the wii they must be doing something right.

  • Primenova

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 8:32 pm GMT

    Myugenjin, either Microsoft, Nintendo, or even both seperatly could outsell Sony for the next-gen. Sony has made more than enough blunders- remember that Nintendo made a few themselves that allowed the original Playstation to beat out the N64, which gave them lead market share for home consoles. While it may not be as drastic of a change due to the massive overall growth of the market since those days, history is about to repeat itself.

  • danishman87

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 7:54 pm GMT

    nintendo = sirfinkledork

  • Myugenjin

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 7:44 pm GMT

    Patchers an idiot, if the game indus. was doing so good how come everyones stock price is still in the red from 1-2 years ago! How come DS & PSP monthly sales nearly top that of 360's! Lets be realistic, im still getting a 360 & plan to upgrade my PC but " ALL" the casual gamers out there who may or may not have internet access or visit this site are waiting out for the PS3's launch! Im sure sales will pick up when all 3 console hit the market but Sony no matter what anyone say's is poised to win by a margin. It took Toyota & Honda 30 years to out sale Ford & GM! Thers no way in hell Ms or N can outsell Sony in a single gen.

  • hemakm3

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 7:31 pm GMT

    Just predictions.

  • Vodoo

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 7:28 pm GMT

    Wii WILL outsell PS3 THIS holiday season simply because it is easier to manufacture, therefore having more units available at launch

  • VegetaMaelstrom

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 7:23 pm GMT

    This clown could be right about the PS3 not selling as many units as he previously predicted because if I recall, Sony is behind where it wants to be when it starts manufacturing the actual consoles. So if Sony will only produce 3 million instead of 4 million then this guys prediction may be warranted.

  • N-DAWG88

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 7:18 pm GMT

    Look at that sweet Nintendo forecast, though I'm surprised he thought that the PSP would outsold the DS, but it seems he corrected himself. Obviously, though, this is just analyst banter, and should never be used as correct info.

  • Disciple_Gamer

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 6:53 pm GMT

    This message is for harry007.... sony does not have a 100 million loyal fanbase. 100 million ps2 were bought but how many were defeative? the Xbox360 is proving its buzz with consumers and people are enjoying it. The wii has tremendous momentum coming out of e3. the ps3 has to prove a point. i believe that is why the analyst lower the xpectation for the ps3. Please remember that the analyst is only giving an estimate and not the gospel truth.

  • SilV3RSix

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 6:46 pm GMT

    Harry007
    "with a loyal fanbase of 100 million how could one expect that especially when ps3 is 5x superior to xbox 360 and can challenge the computational power of the supercomputers of the late nineties."

    Just because 100 million units were sold, doesn't mean 100 million different people bought them. Plenty of folks bought 2 or 3 for different rooms of the house, etc etc. But since you couldn't figure that out, I don't expect you to realize that the PS3 will NOT be 5x superior to the 360 in any category remotely related to gaming power. It will be lucky to have 1.5X in a couple areas. Finally, before you have to change your shorts dreaming about the processing power of the PS3, remember we landed on the moon with the computational power of slide rules and hand calculators. Its all about what you do with the hardware. In this case its all about the games.

  • UmonDaisuke

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 6:45 pm GMT

    "That's right, according to you Microsoft is trying to rally support for Nintendo."

    Well harry's hippy conspiracy theory doesn't hold up being based on bias, but the funny this is, this was true. Remember that it was Moore who said you could buy a 360 and Wii instead of one $600 PS3.

  • atomD21

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 6:16 pm GMT

    harry 007, umm, why would MS pay Pachter to bash Sony and NOT lift up MS? Mikey boy was making a prediction based on the less than spectacular showing of the PS3 as of late and the big buzz surrounding the Wii, not because Bill Gates is paying him off.

  • GFreeman1998

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 6:10 pm GMT

    Really, harry007? Let's say that your conspiracy theory is right, and Microsoft is paying anaylists to say good things about the... Wii? That's right, according to you Microsoft is trying to rally support for Nintendo. Did you notice that the analyst didn't mention the 360?

  • harry007

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 6:00 pm GMT

    as always the US analysts are being paid by MS to talk trash against SONY.
    total BS..........3 milion ps3s would be sold by 2006 meaning 1 million would remain on the shelves.

    now do you want us to believe that?
    with a loyal fanbase of 100 million how could one expect that especially when ps3 is 5x superior to xbox 360 and can challenge the computational power of the supercomputers of the late nineties.

    Wii beating the ps3?????????????is tht even a prediction?????????

    total BS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • togo2828

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 5:35 pm GMT

    VIdeo Games are Gona RuLe the World

  • NFunspoiler

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 5:27 pm GMT

    Hm... he predicts a lot of good stuff for Nintendo. Which is good :p
    But what is someone has a price drop?

  • Slaveways

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 5:22 pm GMT

    ea the big loser after its best sales of madden? how?

  • wooooode

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 5:07 pm GMT

    Well I will have one of those 4 million Wii's.

  • awarriorofgamin

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 5:01 pm GMT

    mkeegs79 true well see what really happens when the time comes but things are looking up for the game industry hope the all the consoles do good though especially 360/wii sony well obvivously make sales

  • Mkeegs79

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 4:54 pm GMT

    Dont praise predictions. That is stupid.

  • SyluxElite

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 4:54 pm GMT

    GO WII!!!!!!!!!!!

  • joeamis

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 4:50 pm GMT

    An analyst now forecasts the DS to sell more than the PSP AND the Wii to sell more than the PS3 (in 2006)... Sign of the times I think, Nintendo is improving, Sony is being stupid.

  • Bathyj

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 4:43 pm GMT

    EA is so big. Its mind boggling. "Take-Two ($20 million, up 31 percent), Electronic Arts ($130 million, down 11 percent)." And thats for one month. Unbelievable. Everyone knocks EA but they must be doing something right.

  • peeweeshift

    Posted Sep 5, 2006 4:28 pm GMT

    time to invest in certain companies

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