Analyst halves PS3 shipment expectations

Japanese firm cuts its expectation of 6 million systems shipped by April to 3 million, Sony shares slide on news, company releases new console pics.

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Sony shares slid almost three percent on the Tokyo Stock Exchange yesterday after an industry analyst dropped his rating of the company and halved his PlayStation 3 shipment expectations for the fiscal year, according to the Reuters news service.

In a note to investors, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities analyst Masahiko Ishino expressed doubt in Sony's ability to reach its goal of 6 million units shipped by the end of its fiscal year, March 31, 2007, the report said. Ishino instead offered a new projection of 3 million units, saying that Sony would fall short of its goal because it wouldn't be able to obtain enough of the high-tech parts it needs.

While such a shortfall in systems could damage Sony's game business in the short term, Ishino was also concerned with its longer-term effect on the company. If Sony can't get the units out the door, it will take longer for the company to recoup its substantial investment in developing the system. That was the reason Ishino gave for lowering his rating of the company's stock, Reuters reports.

Last week, Sony Computer Entertainment America president Kaz Hirai told GameSpot he was expecting to ship 2 million PS3s by the end of 2006. That was quickly followed by clarifications from Sony saying that the company was still planning to have 2 million systems ready for the November launch and another 2 million shipped by year's end.

When asked by GameSpot to address the analyst's note, a Sony rep said the company does not comment on each analyst report, speculation, or rumor that surfaces. However, he did reiterate Sony's previous position.

"SCE has not changed its shipment schedule and is still on target to ship 2 million by launch window, 4 million by the end of this year, and 6 million by the end of FY 06," the representative said. However, the company did release a new batch of photos of the PS3, showing it and its controller up close and personal.

Sony's shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange fell 150 yen ($1.29) to close Thursday at 5,100 yen ($43.78).

249 Comments

  • theKSMM

    Posted Aug 26, 2006 12:52 pm PT

    To those who think the PlayStation 3 "stole" the Spider-Man movie font, both properties are owned by Sony, and many think it was done intentionally to promote a sort of cross-over unity between the divisions.

    I wouldn't be surprised if Spider-Man 3 on Blu-Ray was one of the freebies thrown into the initial shipment of PS3s (much like Spider-Man 2 on UMD was shipped with the PSP).

  • theKSMM

    Posted Aug 26, 2006 12:46 pm PT

    I guess the PS3 is going to have to be used standing up vertically, because nothing is going to sit on top of that curved surface (i.e. stacking components will be difficult).

    The PS3's looks take some getting used to, but that PS2-style controller next to it looks absolutely retro. The "batarang" controller might have been too much, but to just pack it in and use the old controller seems specious to me. The PS2 controller might have been familiar to most console gamers, but it's far from the pinnacle of gaming's user interfaces.

  • boocreepyfootdr

    Posted Aug 26, 2006 6:43 am PT

    Sad news. This launch is going to be hella violent.

  • ewjim

    Posted Aug 26, 2006 2:18 am PT

    I'm too doubt Sony will ship 6 millions... But 5.999 for sure!

  • Oni

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 2:28 pm PT

    I will wait for a price drop .. by then all the kinks will be worked out and plenty of games will be out. I might pick up a Wii Wii at launch, but probably not.

  • ShadoweaverCode

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 12:57 pm PT

    MAKE THE MOST OF YOUR POS3!

    you could...

    drop it off very high buildings onto unsuspecting 360 and nintendo fanboys..

    try to sell it on ebay as a 'cheap blu-ray player' and hopefully they wont realize its just a ps3...

    give it your g/f to use it a vibrator... oh wait.. no rumble nevermind..

    make pancakes with it...

    put a 360 game in it and cross ALL your fingers hoping it works...

    use it as a sled down steep snowy hills...

    use the FFXIII and MGS4 discs as ninja stars against brick walls.. (this one works VERY well)

    put bombs in them and try to smuggle some onto an airplane...

    you could put it an empty 360 box and sell it on ebay

    try to tell people its just a wii and a 360 combined..

    last but not least you could try to get your $$ back by explaining to the cashier that your only 13 and you thought PS3 WAS TEH F*CHKIN SH!~T but you were sadly mistaken..

  • buckybuckster

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 12:54 pm PT

    If this comes as a shock to any one, you haven't been a gamer for very long. Dissapointing?.... yes.....a surprise?....no. For those who reserved at Gamecrazys that took 'em , start sweating.

  • Mr_Bodywave

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 12:37 pm PT

    "Moas_GS
    i wonder if spiderman knows that sony stole his font... "

    I thought the same thing!

  • yasae

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 12:34 pm PT

    If it's true:

    PREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDICTABLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    FTW

  • vicious_scorpio

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 12:17 pm PT

    these analysts don't know anything... they aren't working on the production lines so how can they something like this... keep trying microsoft

  • GoddBless

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 11:59 am PT

    "popopopo_2
    ApisBee
    "As long as I get on for Christmas, I'll be happy."



    m2 "

    So what happens if you can't get one for Christmas or the one you get is defective? Are you willing to wait a little longer if necessary?

  • nicholasnavarro

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 11:30 am PT

    all game consoles are computers.
    a pc is personal computer

  • Moas_GS

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 10:51 am PT

    i wonder if spiderman knows that sony stole his font...

  • PMC11

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 10:36 am PT

    Sony are well and truly stuffed. everyobdy knows that there are gonna be major hardware problems with the ps3 like the ps2, and there definately going to rush the production, again causing further problems.

    I think the 3 million mark is to low myself, but 6 million is definately pushing it, maybe 4/5 mil. sony will not be able to take control of the market until they have dropped the price and ironed out the hardware problems they will no doubt have.

  • e1viento

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 10:35 am PT

    bartflykyte401
    Nintendo has always put out a solid machine hardware-wise for gaming. I have yet to replace either my NES, SNES, N64, or Gamecube. On the other hand, I have gone through 3 PS1s, and 2 PS2s. Now I have a PS2 that doesn't support multitap play (slim PS2) and probably never will. Also, the folks over at Nintendo know what a "home console gaming system" is supposed to be. Sony has already said that their new system will be "more like a computer". Look, if I wanted to play games on a PC, I'd go in the other room and play them on my PC, but I don't. I want a machine that plays video games and costs around $250. Not a computer.

    ---------------------------------------

    Funny you say that: coz the NES in Japan was called ----surprise!!---- The Famicom short for --- Family Computer

    I can't wait for the PS3 and the Wii

  • e1viento

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 10:30 am PT

    amdemartino
    amdemartino
    Looks like something you can make pancakes with...

    ----------------------------

    LOL

    The George Formeman Lean Mean Video Gamin' Machine! Part of a healthy undiet!

  • kb8618

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 10:05 am PT

    theres no way theyll ONLY ship 3mill PS3s by march, cuz that would mean they would only ship another 1mill in 4 months after the release, but i do think 6mill might be hard to do so i estimate they will ship atleast 4.5mill by march

    Futureshop listsPS3 games for $69.99Can, same as the xbox360 games (this isnt expensive considering PS2 games use to be that much back when the system louched and some games were even $79.99can)

  • amdemartino

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 9:57 am PT

    Looks like something you can make pancakes with...

  • Ryodude

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 9:14 am PT

    No matter how grim the news on PS3 is or how high the price point of the PS3 console or its games (have they given a price point for PS3 games?), you have to admit that the PS3 does look oh so pretty!

  • wolvklaw

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 9:14 am PT

    Is the 2-3 million mark worldwide? Is this going to hurt? Yes and no, depends on who is forsure getting one. Alot of people are on the fence or say no I am not getting one right now. So since we don't know those figures, it might be fine for those who want a PS3 on launch day to be able to pick one up..goodluck! The problems though is that the holidays are the hottest time to sell, if the PS3 is not in stores sitting on the shelf next to the Wii and 360, that could hurt. If the PS3 isn't on the shelves untill next summer or so, specially with the mass amount of tripple AAA titles hitting on the other two systems...that will hurt. To have patience in this day in age, is a talent. How many people are going to wait another XXX months after March 07? Specially when they pop into Gamespot and see the majority of the same games on the PS3 sitting on the 360 shelf, combined with their exclusive games, they will ask "gosh is Metal Gear or Final Fantasy" worth the wait? I am happy with the 360, I know I will have fun with the Wii, so for those who have to have a PS3 you don't have to worry about me snagging one up, I do hope everyone who wants one gets one though, talking as a man who lacks patience himself.

    The only reason for me to grab one would be to ebay it, and although this would probably fund my kids christmas, I still find the action petty and rude to those who want one to take home and play it.

  • GrimBee

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 8:50 am PT

    "the ps3.. its so expensive.. i put my NAME on it"... lol

  • LosDaddie

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 8:46 am PT

    First the shipments are halved, next come anotther delay!!

  • nev70

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 8:43 am PT

    THOSE PICS OF THE PS3 LOOK AWSOME !!!!! IS THIER A TIMER FOR THE GRILL & WHERE DOES THE FAT RUN OFF TOO?? ANYONE KNOW?? THANKS

  • ubj007

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 8:39 am PT

    There is nothing to worry about.

  • Sundart

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 7:11 am PT

    I wish that they kept the original controller that was going to come out with the PS3. It looked cooler and more comfortable than the PS2 controller that they're releasing with the console.

  • barflytke401

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 6:21 am PT

    Mark Unix...First of all I'm not a Nintendo Fanboy. I grew up on he NES so yes, I do have a soft spot for Nintendo, but I cannot deny the market share and quality of games that Sony has placed on the market since their entrance into the gaming arena. Problem is, the PS2 had so many problems with its hardware (not to mention poor customer service support) in the past 6 years that I can't help but to pull out my tried and true grey machine that is officially 20 years old now and fire it up whenever my Sony problems get me down....

    Nintendo has always put out a solid machine hardware-wise for gaming. I have yet to replace either my NES, SNES, N64, or Gamecube. On the other hand, I have gone through 3 PS1s, and 2 PS2s. Now I have a PS2 that doesn't support multitap play (slim PS2) and probably never will. Also, the folks over at Nintendo know what a "home console gaming system" is supposed to be. Sony has already said that their new system will be "more like a computer". Look, if I wanted to play games on a PC, I'd go in the other room and play them on my PC, but I don't. I want a machine that plays video games and costs around $250. Not a computer.

    While I do agree that Nintendo's library of games since the SNES has been lacking, (aside from Goldeneye, Resident Evil, and Mario Kart,) and Sony has definitely ruled the roost so to speak in that area, I believe that Nintendo's latest library of upcoming games looks great and is really going to give Sony a run for their money. I'm not a Fanboy, but I do recognize quality when I see it.

  • mturbyfill

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 5:49 am PT

    At one point I couldn't wait for the release of the PS3, but my interest is really starting to dwindle. Waiting for the PS3 I have picked up PC gaming and am not really convinced that the quality of the games available on the 360 and the PS3 are superior enough to warrant adding them to my collection. Have always been a console gamer, but I officially may have crossed over to the PC side.

  • Mr_Bodywave

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 5:46 am PT

    You what makes me laugh at Sony's prediction? They haven't started making the PS3 yet. That gives them less 3 months to get the 2mil for launch. and from there they have 1 and a half months to get the second 2mil they want by years end. So about 4mil in about 4 months (assuming they start NOW) or about a mil a month. Then from Jan-March they only expect to ship 2mil. So why the drop in production efficiency? Their numbers just don't jive. So let's look at both cases:
    1) They will have a total of 4mil by end of Dec. That means they will have at least 7mil by end of March.
    2) They will only ship 2mil in Jan-March (or 667k/month). WIth 4 months left in 2006--they can make at most 2.67mil. Of which 1.67mil will be ready at launch and 1mil from launch to years end.

    For some reason I can't believe they expect their consoles/month to DROP--so I gotta believe that they are full of it regarding launch and through Dec.

    So even believing their 2mil from Jan-Mar only gives a total of 4.67mil. I, like the analyst, just don't believe they will be able to pull that off. There are just too many parts and a logistical nightmare to pull off.

    The funny part to me? That the xbox360 will supposedly have about 10mil units out before PS3 launches. End of March--2007-probably will still have about a 10mil lead.

    Shortages, high prices, etc. Doesn't look like it will be a smooth launch.

  • SoraTheExtreme

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 5:35 am PT

    I'm kinda tired of all the bull about Sony...
    so what? problems at the release? everyone has had that once...
    and every little Nintendo Fanboy who's having fun saying Nintendo is perfect in every way I can only mention two things: N64, crap of craps. it's a halfmade console with the worlds worst controller... and then we have the fact that they have halfed their winnings with every console they've made.

  • mark_unix

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 5:33 am PT

    barflytke401 your fanboy wishes....
    NEVER COME TRUE, DID IT HAPPEN WITH THE PS2?
    even the PSP is selling quite OK compared to the PS1/PS2, so stop being a kid and claim sony will go under for no apparent reason...

  • barflytke401

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 5:02 am PT

    Sony's fall from the heavens is imminent.

    Much like Sam Beckett, Nintendo will finally put right what once went wrong and make their final leap home.

  • Dreski83

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 3:50 am PT

    keeperofgames - very funny but truthful point about comparing the cars to the machines, no matter how silly it may sound, the concern of just how much a gaming machine the PS3 really does linger...

    Chainblast - just in case no one has said it, I deeply appreciate your observation of the dreadfully obvious. Overall, Sony has never been my favorite game company (but they sure make awesome electronics) simply cause they have what feels like a real detatched approach to this whole gaming thing. I understand its all about the business now a days, look at what has become of E3, but in all respects would you want a person who is passionate about making great games or making the big score on yer hard earned cash?

    I wish the best for Sony and their fans, yet I'm kinda weary at the idea that even when the console does make its way into homes what does it really have to offer that is so worth while... a controller that resembles the 360 without rumble... expensive tech that is a lil above the common consumer... games that may not even hold the attention of the truest fan longer than a week... its looking bleak for Sony indeed.

  • Col-Neil

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 3:44 am PT

    This is why i never ever buy a console at launch no matter what company thats doing it theres all ways going to be problems

  • Dav_id83

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 2:58 am PT

    Could you imagine the price people will be doing to get this eBay better have it's fraud security up. Cause I read when 360 was out people where paying upto £1000 for a console and some paid £800 and got a picture of it sent through there door.

    I won't buy one not until I see a game(s) that will get me hooked for more than an hour. My mate will buy one he dosn't care wether it's £600+ or not he just burns money.

  • thekey

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 2:34 am PT

    Valen_Ca You got that right! LOL!!! No suprise here especially when Hakuri last week was saying that they haven't even started manufactoring them yet. Stupid stupid Sony.

    This thing looks quite huge, and noisey.

  • soulknight63133

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 2:29 am PT

    shame on you Valen_Ca...lol

  • Britesparc

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 2:24 am PT

    Anyone else a bit worried for Sony? Not that I like one company lording it over the entire industry in such a fashion, but in my opinion and the opinions of my friends, the omens aren't good for Sony.

    I now think the Wii will rule the world!

  • Lord_Regnier

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 2:16 am PT

    im not surprised.

    Those pics of the PS3 are amazing!

  • Carpe_Noctum

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 1:32 am PT

    Most people I know are waiting for a couple of price drops. Maybe because of the price there will be SOME units available. Hope all you guys that want one find one.
    And I am pretty sure that the PS3 isn't really big but in that one picture it looks huge.

  • metdevthegamer

    Posted Aug 25, 2006 12:29 am PT

    More negative outlooks on the PS3, kind of feel sorry for Sony.

  • jakeboudville

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 11:20 pm PT

    Interesting...

  • Blinblingthing

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 11:10 pm PT

    @ mike_mgoblue

    PS2 has been outselling xbox 360 since launch, so 360 can't be the fastest selling console

  • Igwababa

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 10:50 pm PT

    like who didnt expect a hard to manufacture machine to be in short supply

  • nintendorocks

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 10:42 pm PT

    I sure hope that this doesn't happen. There was enough chaos with the Xbox 360. I can't imagine what this will be like. I had such high hopes that Sony wouldn't make the same mistake Microsoft made. Ah, man...I'm worried.

  • mike_mgoblue

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 10:33 pm PT

    Even the people of Japan are no longer interested in the Playstation 3. The Famitsu magazine polls say that the people of Japan are simply not interested in the Playstation 3 due to its high price and lack of good games. Games like Metal Gear Solid 4 will not be available until the fall of 2007, and Final Fantasy XIII will not be available until sometime in 2008!!! Plus, there is a good chance that both of those games may actually see a release for the Xbox 360 due to the fact that the Xbox 360 is the fastest selling system ever in 40 of the 41 countries it has been released in. Japan is only 15% of the market now, but the major factor is that the Playstation 3 is something that consumers are not looking forward to playing anymore...mainly because it was such a HUGE disappointment at the 2006 E3, due to the announcement of high pricing and such disappointing games. It wouldn't surprise me if Sony sold even less than 3 million systems by March of 2006.

  • kcarlson1130

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 10:13 pm PT

    did the ps3 always have that chrome in the front? i never noticed it before. it looks good

  • UltraWoody

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 10:08 pm PT

    That's too bad.

    XBox360 and Wii will devour PS3. What they're offering is not worth what they want for it. You want powerful and beautiful games that will be cheaper than PS3 but do the same thing? Get a 360, people! Or at least a high-end PC.

  • Chainblast

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 9:08 pm PT

    Why don't you just stand out on the street with an apocalypse sign hanging off your shoulders? Jeez, some analyst makes a statement and the crap hits the fan. Seriously though, it would not surprise me in the least if Sony didn't make their initial projections due to shortage of systems. Remember the PS2 fiasco?

    Anyway, I'm sure it's just an elaborate plan to generate hype for the machine. It's like "Hey, we are now only expecting half the initial units. Better run out and get one while you can!". Then like sheep hundreds of thousands of people run out under the recomendations of SCEA.

    PS. It's too bad they ruined the look of the system with that silver trim crap. It looks more like a toaster.

  • marioman50

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 9:06 pm PT

    Some people think that sony will fail, most likely because of the huge price. but there are way to many die hard fans out there for it to fail. Plus these shipment expectations mean that even if nobody buys them, the stores already bought so many of them that sony will make a huge profit anyway. I am not diehard enough to buy it at launch but that doen't mean I don't want it. Obviously if it fails I won't buy it because of the lack of games being released. I think I will first buy a wii. then later on, buy a PS3. Oh, wait, I have to have money first.

  • Myugenjin

    Posted Aug 24, 2006 9:03 pm PT

    Damn,... Im usually against this but as my finances aren't as what I expected as of late I may buy 2 PS3's at launch to sell on ebay!

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