Analyst: PS3 to win next-gen war

The Yankee Group predicts 30 million PS3s, 27 million Xbox 360s, and 11 million Wiis sold in North America by 2011.

If you're a game-industry analyst looking to get some free publicity, the easiest way seems to be to issue a provocative press release predicting the victor of the next-gen console war. Case in point: The Yankee Group, a Boston-based firm that today made a bold forecast about which of the big three console makers will come out on top.

Who's the lucky company? Despite widespread unhappiness with the PlayStation 3's high price, the Yankee Group predicts that Sony will come out on top. "Microsoft is off to a fast start, launching the Xbox 360 nearly 12 months before the PlayStation 3," the company said in a statement. "However, by the time third-generation consoles reach market maturity in 2011, the PlayStation 3 will once again be the market leader."

How badly does the firm think Sony will beat its competitors? The Yankee Group is forecasting that Sony will sell 30 million PS3s over the next five years in North America, attaining a 44 percent market share. It sees Microsoft coming in second with 27 million units, or a 40 percent market share, which it will attain by "put[ting] significant price pressure on Sony during the PS3's lifecycle." As for Nintendo, the company predicts the Wii will keep the same roughly 16 percent market share it currently holds by selling 11 million Wiis over five years.

"With a growing installed base of connected consoles, content owners are beginning to recognize the potential video game consoles offer as a distribution channel," said Michael Goodman, Yankee's senior analyst for media and entertainment strategies. "Additionally, these platforms will serve as a strong medium for advertising, validating the growing market for in-game and around game advertising."

991 Comments

  • jono2

    Posted Jul 1, 2009 4:33 am PT

    epic fail

  • RippleLaser

    Posted Jun 8, 2009 11:35 am PT

    Yankee Group, you fail, epic fail.

  • olthof

    Posted Jan 9, 2008 7:24 pm PT

    LOL......... idiot!

  • kingtrewq

    Posted Jan 7, 2008 8:37 pm PT

    wow this looks dumb now, 11 million wiis by 2011, lol it like 19 million and its 2008

  • SanitarySewer27

    Posted Sep 1, 2007 3:16 pm PT

    Sony: Stops making PS3 and remake PS2, Xbox 360: 45 Million, Wii: 53,320,866... Just a wild guess

  • mcomeau10

    Posted Aug 22, 2007 4:44 pm PT

    Ok, I wanna play at forecast too. Here's my predictions: Sony: close Playstation division because not profitable Microsoft: 35 millions WII: 40-45 millions

  • Silicon_Noob

    Posted Aug 21, 2007 1:04 am PT

    Lol check this site out if you wanna see how hindsight can make tools of people. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/3544039.stm

  • chansaet

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 11:01 pm PT

    Boy I bet this guy sounds dumb right about now

  • PikaPerson

    Posted Aug 19, 2007 2:50 pm PT

    Lol, this article is full of epic failure. What a difference a year makes. The Wii's about to reach 11 million, just on it's first year.

  • nextgenisps3

    Posted Mar 31, 2007 11:55 pm PT

    "The new Xbox 360 Elite will be priced at $479.99, putting Microsoft pretty high up there in terms of pricing nearing the PlayStation 3’s $599.99 mark. If I were a consumer comparing two consoles and I saw one at $599.99 and one at $479.99, knowing the Blu-ray capabilities of the PlayStation 3 and the superior technology, it would almost be a no-brainer at this point. Microsoft failed to pack in an HD-DVD drive in this model as many thought they would to combat the Blu-ray technology the PlayStation 3 uses, another sign that it is looking like Blu-ray may be heading towards a knockout victory over the HD-DVD format in the next-generation format wards. Things are beginning to look better and better every day for Sony who has a much more powerful machine and at the new price point Microsoft has set, a much better value for the money as well."

    from a web site

  • nextgenisps3

    Posted Mar 31, 2007 11:42 pm PT

    i think it will be like this:

    PS3: 35-40 millions

    XBOX360: 19-23 millions

    Wii: 12-16 millions

    this is only in north america.

    all over the world it would be like this:

    PS3: 80-85 millions

    Wii: 35-40 millions

    XBOX360: 30-35 millions

  • dragonwiz0d

    Posted Feb 27, 2007 1:31 pm PT

    sony is only gonna win from ffxiii and mgs4

  • the_godfather_1

    Posted Feb 16, 2007 6:57 pm PT

    360 first to 10 million

  • Limonadi

    Posted Jan 17, 2007 5:57 am PT

    wii 30 mil
    PS3 35 mil
    xbox 360 25

  • Jammaren

    Posted Jan 6, 2007 12:46 am PT

    i think it's gonna be like this

    wii 35 million
    x360 25 million
    ps3 10 million

  • Cellien

    Posted Jan 4, 2007 2:49 pm PT

    @Rawstorm: For one, the PS3 is $600... consoles are more expensive all across the board too.

  • RawStorm

    Posted Dec 21, 2006 5:47 pm PT

    didn't the ps2 sell like over 100 million units. why would less consoles be sold this generattion than the last generation?

  • blackldragon

    Posted Dec 17, 2006 8:49 pm PT

    You x-box fans are so pathetic and you ps3 and wii fans arent' far behind. All your doing is just trying to have some justification that you bought the better system and are consistantly trying to get people to dislike the competetion simply for you to feel good about yourself. Honestly its said that the gaming industry has turned people so desperet that the kill people over them. I have to say right now X-box is looking really good and im more of a sony person, but don't get you A$$ to far up your head because the PS3 was just released and we'll see how it will do and be REALLY IN THE CONSOLE WARS!!! next year. The Wii also seems like it will do real well because of the fact that alot of people can get into it more young and old. And about the MGS4 and FF coming to X-box don't talk crap until you have 100% real proof. And one more thing how old are you people really cause you sound like a bunch of pre teens. Sorry for the long post and if you got something to say to me don't use anger in your words because ill blow up on you.

  • majestikk

    Posted Dec 16, 2006 9:30 pm PT

    How can PS3 win the next gen war, when it doesn't have anything truly innovative. Their controllers don't even have a rumble feature.

    Blu-ray will be the next UMD.

    And all of their bonafide exclusives are turning to the 360. Don't be surprised if MGS4 eventually sees the light of day on the 360.

    I can't even picture a New Metal Gear without the standard rumble feature.

    How could Sony's rip-off controller make MGS4 more fun? I don't think the name "Sony" alone is gonna win the Next Gen War.

  • strue14

    Posted Nov 26, 2006 3:18 pm PT

    About right ps3 will own eventually...

    PS3-29 million
    X360-27million
    Wii-16 million

  • iaag784

    Posted Nov 20, 2006 3:34 pm PT

    BlackandWhite0, Yeah I'd like to see the PS3 only sell 10 million units in five years. Come back when it wins and clear your statement.

  • PolishPunisher

    Posted Nov 5, 2006 2:36 pm PT

    I could see that, maybe a little bit more Wiis but close.

  • MoldOnHold

    Posted Oct 29, 2006 10:40 am PT

    I can't believe these guys get PAID for churning out crap like this!

  • Yuall

    Posted Oct 11, 2006 7:52 am PT

    Sony just irritates me. They are in love with themselves. during the entire history of video game consoles any company could have asked 1000 dollars for their consoles to offer the most advanced technology but none did because being THAT advanced doesnt really mean much in a few years. It will be the games that matter. But sony is determined to dominate every market so that we're forced to buy a blueray with our console at our expense. The only reason they can do this is because of their dominance of the last generation so everyone will recognize the brand of playstation and buy one reguardless. So we pay 1000 dollars ? That just bugs me. Im not buying a ps3. Im getting a Wii and i already have a 360.

  • BlackandWhite0

    Posted Sep 21, 2006 12:27 pm PT

    Bullsh** More like:
    Wii - 30,000,000
    360 - 24,000,000
    PS3 - 10,000,000

  • dms5031

    Posted Aug 23, 2006 11:09 am PT

    I believe that these people know what they are talking about. The only thing that X-box 360 has going for itself is the Halo series coming up with 3, which from what i heard isn't going to be that impressive, they'll just add on a few maps and weapons no biggy! The truth is that I buy a system based on what games series are available on it, as I think that is track of thought of many other gamers. So once again X-box doesn't stand a chance against PS3 in long run.

    Final Fantasy VII forever!!!,
    Altimazion, Fenrir Server

  • FlashNovice

    Posted Aug 22, 2006 12:55 pm PT

    Buy all except for Ps3 (or until I can buy it for about 300 dollars)
    :-)

  • FlashNovice

    Posted Aug 22, 2006 12:50 pm PT

    Case in point: If the Yankee Group employees takes cocaine at least twice a day.

    According to their bull****, they not only take it twice a day, but they live and BREATHE in it!!

    I just dont like what they says, that is all. This is more like it...
    Ps3 will smell like dung fresh from the oven after 5 years
    Microsoft will be bought by some guy in Australia for alot of money
    And Wii will rule the Planet side by side with Bungie!!!1111111

    If not... I will buy all the consoles a year after they are made to public (to wait for some sweet games to come out)
    --
    I am a FlashNovice

  • skhellitor

    Posted Aug 22, 2006 11:02 am PT

    wii selling as much as the gamecube? these guys aparently missed this thing called e3, i agree ps3 will probally win the console wars , just as nintendo is winning the handheld wars, as in ps3 will dominate but the wii will have a healthy market, if nintendo can claim number 2 spot i think microsoft might think twice about there aproach.

  • ToOkie-TOokie

    Posted Aug 22, 2006 12:15 am PT

    i don't dig the whole microsoft point system... for this patch you need 100 points... footsack man, give me faulty game that needs a patch that i must pay for, nooit... i see ps3 being a better choice in the long run, xbox 360 might be good and all, but playstation has always had a better selection in my opinion, and seemed alot more stable... hence the saving and craving will be the way for ps3.. i ask you why get a ham sandwich when you can get a ham sandwich with cheese.... Peace.

  • Tremblay343

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 10:09 pm PT

    I can easily be called a sony fanboy, i mean i love everything sony puts out, and i think the PS3 will be amazing. But the fact that these analysts say the the PS3 will win by the amout is a little obsene. I mean I think the wii is waaaaay better than the 360 and it hasn't even come out yet. Just look at how cool the controller is, Like the new metroid and zelda will obviously be good, just like every other game in those series. But i mean i can live without gears of war and halo. Cause i don;t own the original xbox, and im doing fine. i just go over to my friends house and play it over there if i really feel like it. And for the PS3, it has metal gear solid, grand turismo, assassins creed, and definatly GTA4 as a launch title. Plus it was always better on the PS2 anyways. so i tihnk a close race between the wii and PS3, the wii most probably winning, ps3 close behind and the 360 not that far behind either. I mean when halo comes out they're going to dominate in sales, so theres no way this race isn;t going to be a close one.

  • YUNGlink

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 3:05 pm PT

    Do these people not realize that common citizens are poor? More people will get the wii just for price alone... ps3 will sell low because average gamers will either have to save up for a while just to get it or spluge their money quickly on a cheaper system
    Analysts are worth nothing

  • videogamegeek75

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 2:33 pm PT

    Ugh... I hate it when analyzers try to predict sales of video game consoles. You can't really know anything until you actually PLAY THE GAME! Wii is certainly going to win because of its cheap price, innovative games, free internet play, and its Virtual Console feature. PS3 will be second because of its awesome power and graphics, but for a 500 dollar price at minimum. Xbox 360 will certainly be third because it came out a little too early, not enough to address the flaws gamers would see in it in the future.

    Ask your parents or some other person that gives other people video games for gifts. Would they buy a $199 Wii, a $499 (at minimum) PS3, or an antique Xbox 360 for $299 (at minimum)?

  • gamefantasy

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 12:49 pm PT

    no proof or any real statistics...

  • ac1983fan

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 9:46 am PT

    Idiots! PS3 will lose.

  • B-HunterX

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 8:25 am PT

    haha i just cant wait till these guys gets proven wrong. when Nintendo has most of the market it will be a slap in the face for them especially if one of their kids has a Wii as well.

  • hsmyth

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 6:09 am PT

    They guys are totally bias, they cant predict that the Wii wont do better than its last console.. weres the proof? Its far more affordable for the normal people, aka the people who dont live in the Whitehouse, and it has much better games and I think will do better over all the other consoles.

    Nintendo Rule, Sony S**k.. simple as that.

  • HelotheHunter

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 5:10 am PT

    LordelX, I love your prediction. That's mine. However, as much as that would be the ideal percentage, it just won't happen. And I think that prediction dude is a totally biased fanboy. Only the spoiled little rich kids who will hate their parents forever if they don't get the PS3 or the people who are willing to pay $1000 for a system and 2 games will be able to afford a PS3. I seriously think that it might be easier on their bank accounts if they buy cheaper system like the Wii or even the X360! As for Nintendo becoming 11% AGAIN, how stupid is he? Hasn't he seen how well the DS did? People didn't think that would do nearly as good as it did. So why does he really think that about the Wii?

  • Terami

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 4:09 am PT

    I love how these predictions always change.

    I for one, don't care what system I own, as long as it has games that I would like to play. Having said that...

    I will not be owning a PS3 until there is a significant price drop. I make good money, but not enough to justify spending $1000 Canadian funds on myself before my kids.( PS3 is supposedly going to cost $750 Can. funds before taxes or games or what ever, according to EBgames.)

    Like so many others, I've seen the light and have already purchased a 360 as they have some killer aps already and many more coming.

    The Wii... Well, we'll see what it has to offer but I "predict" I'll own one of those for my kids long before I even look at PS3.

  • waraga

    Posted Aug 21, 2006 1:18 am PT

    one thing i think sony will win the console war is blue ray the ability for game developers to produce longer game play and high definition content to the highest degree ble ray optical drive is the next chapter of entertainment, as for 360 dvd optical storage.The second thing i think sony will win the console war is cell the processor is very power full HD defention out put till 1080p in which the 360 doent have .One other thing is the blue tooth and motion sensing engine the controler has its the next level of game play.Good luck sony.

  • d0njuan

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 11:03 pm PT

    now these guys know what they're talking about

  • coolman437

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 6:43 pm PT

    the smart thing is to either buy the Wii if you cant afford the ps3 or get the ps3 becasue xbox 360 will cost the same price with the attachment u will need to work the newer games VI HD-DVD attachment running for $150+ making it the same price as the ps3 big pack or more then its less pack makign the ps3 the smart choice

  • iceyyyy

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 5:40 pm PT

    $1000 (Aust) for PS3? not thanks. For that price you can get Wii60, or Wii with 6-8games, or PS2 & Wii

  • Desi-Gangsta

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 4:09 pm PT

    the 360 is more affordable than the ps3, and it also has almost the same capabilities as the ps3 in terms of graphics, online, etc. So the smart choice would be to buy a 360 over a ps3, and that's exactly what i'm going to do.

  • vassalofodin

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 1:34 pm PT

    I really like my PS2 so I'm not buying a PS3 at launch. I'll probably buy it eventually, because I am somewhat of a Sony Fanboy. Still, I'm most excited for the Wii, I just hope it's more immersive than gimmicky.

    As for who will sell the most systems...I'd say Sony. We get calls in all the time at Gamespot about when one can reserve a PS3, hardly anyone has called to ask about the Wii or even games for the 360. Still, it's too early to start guessing and throwing numbers around. I think these analysts are getting desperate.

  • confederate_t3

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 12:07 pm PT

    OK...First of all There is no argument that the PS# isn't the most advanced system. but is it the most practical, no. It's graphics looks the same as 360's and some of the Wii games I've seen have looked better than some of the Ps3 games.
    ok
    PS3: Console $600+ Games $100
    360: Console $400 Games $50-$60
    Wii: Console $150+- Games $30-$60

    I Personally have a 360 and I love it, the few sports games are good, It has a load of fun FPS ( halo3, Prey, Farcry) and not to mention with Halo 3, Gears of War, and with a Oblivion all which I think to have killer app status.

    The Wii is good but the games are too kiddy for my taste but a great console for most people. but with PS3s expensive games and concole I think it's riding itself into the ground, and I think it is losing is console exclusiveness like Grand theft auto is jumping ship and releasing GTA 4 for the 360, and there are rumors that Asassins creed is also coming out for the 360. The PS3 is going to be a great machine, but it's high cost doesn't give that much better graphics, just a assload of unnecessary storage space.

    The Xbox 360 will be king I believe cause it's graphics, price, accessories, and most of all the games. here is a quick run down of great games for the 360: Oblivion, Codemned, Kane & lynch, Dead Rising, Halo 3, FarCry, Gears of War, Ghost Recon: Advanced war fighter, Grand theft Auto 4, and Asassins Creed (possibly). I think there will be many good titles to come for the 360

  • Lafitte

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 9:34 am PT

    I'm sorry but I've asked many of my friends and we can't afford a PS3. Actually most middle class gamers can't. I guess this is the generation that I won't be able to buy a playstation.

  • Pices

    Posted Aug 20, 2006 6:03 am PT

    Sony sux !!!

    Nintendo will rule the market

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