E3 06: Analysts offer mixed view of future

  • By Dan Tochen, GameSpot
  • Posted May 12, 2006 12:39 pm PT

China is poised to pop; US and European markets have room to grow; Japan a challenge, say analysts at E3 panel.

LOS ANGELES--E3 is best known for the gaming frenzy that fills the show floor, but that's only part of the story. There's also a three-day program of conference sessions and panels, where some of the game industry's best-known figures dish the dirt and share their insider perspectives.

One of the most interesting entries in this year's conference program was yesterday's roundtable discussion titled "World view: Analysts take measure of the global marketplace." Publishers and developers packed the house, eager to hear six equities analysts discuss global-gaming prospects for the next few years.

Oft-quoted game equities analyst Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities served as the roundtable's master of ceremonies. He took the conversation to Europe first, asking David MacQueen of Screen Digest to describe the market and share his forecast. MacQueen described a market with strong regional differences between its component countries and annual software sales expected to hit $7 billion this year. As he noted, that figure would make the European market two and a half times larger than the Japanese market and almost as large as the US.

MacQueen said that the European market peaked in 2004, driven by the maturing PlayStation 2 console, before slumping in 2005. He predicts that handhelds will play a key role in driving the market to the $7 billion mark in 2006, erasing last year's decline and matching the peak seen in 2004.

According to MacQueen, the Xbox 360 stumbled in its European launch. In fact, the PS2 outsold the 360 in the first quarter of 2006, partially due to the chronic shortages that also affected the US. Expanding on his theme that "Xbox could do better," he quipped "in Japan you can see why it's called the 360--I think that's the number of units that were sold."

Nonetheless, MacQueen expects European sales during the next-gen console cycle to hit a higher peak than current-gen sales. He believes the market will be worth $9 billion in 2007, partially thanks to strong growth in casual, online, and mobile gaming.

Anita Frazier of market research firm The NPD Group took the mike next. She grabbed the audience's attention by describing the current state of the US market in unabashedly negative terms, saying "the sky is falling."

Despite an installed base of over 100 million current and next-gen systems, total sales of PC games and console hardware and software have been flat over the last four years. Moreover, because of a high incidence of dual-console ownership, game-console penetration in US households is lower than the large installed base suggests: Frazier estimates penetration of less than 40 percent of US households.

Though Frazier takes a negative view of the current state of the market here in the US, she's optimistic for the future. She notes that female gamers and cell-phone games represent largely untapped markets, and more parents of gamers are also likely to be converted as the industry moves into the next generation of hardware.

Hiroshi Kamide of KBC Securities followed Frazier with another gloomy assessment--this time of the Japanese gaming market. In his view, "traditional" gaming is struggling in Japan. Kamide is not the only person holding this opinion: a respected Japanese developer said the same thing in a different workshop earlier this week, going so far as to say that he feared for the continued existence of the industry in Japan.

Kamide, however, is not quite that negative. He believes that Nintendo's deployment of the DS and Wii in an effort to attract noncore gamers is exactly the right move, the "saving grace for Japan."

He looks to Wii to perform "much better" than the GameCube, and notes that while it's always possible to cater to the core gamers, which is the approach of most Japanese game firms, targeting the broader casual market is the best way to guarantee growth.

After Japan, the conversation turned to the other key East Asian markets, China and Korea. Lisa Hanson of Niko Partners shared her thoughts on China, while Antonio Tambunan of Bear Stearns Asia spoke on both countries, supplementing market statistics with qualitative data garnered from his Korea-based 2,000-member online gaming guild.

In a nutshell, China is a challenging but high-growth market, while the mature Korean market is facing much slower growth. Because the market in Korea is saturated, most growth is the result of cannibalization, and Tambunan believes that 2006 will see many gamers drop longtime favorites for newer titles. Games like Lineage and Ragnarok Online, which ignited the Korean MMORPG boom, are getting long in the tooth (in fact, Lineage has 2D graphics), and he believes that account holders are ready to switch to new games offering better graphics and improved gameplay. Bottom line? He believes the population of online gamers in Korea will increase incrementally in the next few years, from 16 million in 2004 to 20 million in 2007.

Tambunan's forecast for China over the same period is much rosier. He sees the market increasing from 20 million online gamers in 2004 to 36 million in 2007--almost doubling in just two years. But Tambunan also warns that the extremely high rate of piracy poses a challenge for publishers.

Hanson of Niko Partners agreed with Tambunan's warning. She illustrated the depth of the problem by noting that China's top-selling PC game in 2002 was Half-Life: Counter Strike, with 450,000 copies sold. But last year, the top seller sold just 50,000 copies: the rest of the market vanished, lost to pirates. Another challenge is China's regulatory maze--foreign publishers struggle to gain entry to the market. Still, Hanson believes the potential payoff is worth it: her data shows that the Chinese gamer population will grow from 27 million in 2005 to 63 million in 2010, with a majority playing online games.

Not only is the market primed for growth, it is also very fluid. In Hanson's estimation, there is no truly "world-class" domestic game firm blazing a trail for other firms to follow. As a result, the market is very dynamic, and it's easier for a new entrant to gain market share than in a more established market.

The upshot? For a company eyeing a move into Asian markets, China looks like the most interesting bet. Game regulation and unbridled piracy pose steep challenges, but the potential payoff is worth it. Meanwhile, the European and US markets are also likely to grow, albeit at a lower rate than China. The next-gen consoles, especially the Wii, are the key to unlocking that growth, most of which is expected to come from expanding the audience beyond the traditional hardcore gaming demographic.

74 Comments

  • jakeboudville

    Posted Aug 26, 2006 9:24 pm PT

    interesting

  • DevJin

    Posted May 15, 2006 9:55 pm PT

    I know M$ is so greedy. But, who want to buy that rubbish from m$?? you can burn your house with that overheathing rubbish.

  • rbarahona

    Posted May 15, 2006 6:08 pm PT

    China has a lot of potential, and so Latin America. I hope that with the next generation consoles, and speciall y Wii, the game industry can continue it's grow. I'm sure that more and more people will start buying and playing games.

  • TheGrandMiG

    Posted May 14, 2006 6:58 pm PT

    so basically everything sucks now but it will get better. yay

  • chrisdojo

    Posted May 14, 2006 11:12 am PT

    publishers making games for Wii are almost sure to make some $$$ since development costs are much less.

  • Humorguy_basic

    Posted May 14, 2006 10:14 am PT

    PC gaming is on death's door - and I am NOT HAPPY about it! Thank goodness I have a collection that has been built up over the last 10 years, so will have something decent to play.

  • Linkman25

    Posted May 14, 2006 9:28 am PT

    "MGS4 will be awesome, sure, but Kojima has been hinting at a 360 release for the game..."
    _____________________________________________________________

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but Kojima has no plans to bring MGS4 to Xbox 360 in any foreseeable future. In his previous interview with GameInformer, Kojima constantly states that he hates ports in any fashion. This means that MGS4 will remain permanently exclusive for PS3.

    Really? Hmm, I always thought MGS4 would get ported in a Subsistence or Substance sort of way...

  • i_love_my_ds

    Posted May 13, 2006 10:04 pm PT

    the only console thats going to get some new people playing is the Wii......... the other consoles are way too expensive for non-gamers to even consider buying them

  • MysticGenie

    Posted May 13, 2006 8:54 pm PT

    Linkman25

    "MGS4 will be awesome, sure, but Kojima has been hinting at a 360 release for the game..."
    _____________________________________________________________

    Sorry to burst your bubble, but Kojima has no plans to bring MGS4 to Xbox 360 in any foreseeable future. In his previous interview with GameInformer, Kojima constantly states that he hates ports in any fashion. This means that MGS4 will remain permanently exclusive for PS3.

  • Taoweixiong

    Posted May 13, 2006 4:07 pm PT

    Well that's the point of the race and war. Analysts are used as figureheads to be firestarters. Every system has an exclusive franchise they hold on dearly. Sure, there are exceptions (ie. Resident Evil, Final Fantasy, etc) but there are exclusives. We should be spending money on the games, not bicker on whichever console is better or whatnot strategies.

    With that being said, I would buy the latest consoles. How awesome is it to play yet another Mario title with some innovation on the wii? What about the recent announcement of the confirmed Halo 3 on the 360? Lets not forget always PS first releases of the Metal Gear titles?

    A gamer concentrates on the games. A fanboy can stay loyal to the brand of the console or brand of the title. Which are you? I make $116,000 a year but at the end of the day, I don't hesitate in front of eb games and segregate my choices because of the brand or console. I can however finalize quality factors. (Ie. Burnout for xbox vs. Ps2)

    I'm sure that developers play a variety of games as well. Imagine if Hideo Kojima were to only focus on playing Konami games and only on the Playstation console. Where's the motivation for innovation in his already creative mind?

    Two of my colleagues were bickering once between the xbox and ps2. Eventually, this lead to heated debates within the office. It wasnt until I purchased 13 units of xbox,ps2, & gc for them did these arguments stop. Not only were they grateful for the charity, but their perspectives had entirely changed. The same colleague that had insulted Microsoft does not complain about his free xbox. Neither did the one complaing about Sony's competitive nature. Now we have healthy discussions regarding games and not console segregation.

    So in the end, work hard, earn some money, buy the consoles, and have fun playing all sorts of games! Best to you all!

  • masteroftheps2

    Posted May 13, 2006 3:16 pm PT

    That Narroo guy is just talking out of his @** have you ever been to china? the two most popular games by far there is CS and WC3 and now WoW is catching up

  • thepeter

    Posted May 13, 2006 1:16 pm PT

    linkman25 kicked some ass

  • jon112290

    Posted May 13, 2006 9:35 am PT

    Well, china is edging more and more towards a capitalist ecnonmy more and more every year. The main reason, to my knowledge, as to why theres little foregin buissness in China is because of the value of the yuan. Around 8 yuan equals one american dollars. Because of this, a foeign business must sale 8 times more in China to make the same profit as they would in the US. Then theres the domestic competion which makes things even worse. This is about the economy in general. For video games (or software for the matter) I find it almost impossible to maintain sales because of pricacy. I've been to China a couple of times now, being Chinese myself, and never have I seen any "real" software. Every software is priated. 40 yaun (5 dollars) for Call of duty 2 when compared to 50 bucks? Kinda obvious isn't it?

  • GMAN32X

    Posted May 13, 2006 6:33 am PT

    Its too bad China is a communist country...can you imagine that population in the hands of a democratically elected government? A capitalist economy in China would mean major ramifications for the gaming industry (not to mention the US economy)!!!

  • xanst

    Posted May 13, 2006 6:19 am PT

    The 360 has been out for almost a year, they could have added more RPGs then just Oblivion. It's good that they are bringing Fable 2, but the other RPGs are few and far between.

  • miiiguel

    Posted May 13, 2006 4:56 am PT

    I don't know how it's said that 360 is doing not so god in Europe as it was the fastest selling console on the UK, the 3rd biggest market. But I'm not much onto economy, they should know better.

    Anyway, some gamers take this too seriously, and mainly now that PS3 conference was a joke. Sales numbers don't affect my gameplay.

    And, many people were expecting too much for a brand new console like the 360, and in a (supposedly) near future PS3, by complining for instance the lack of RPG (for the Japan market) what's do yiu expect to have +8000 titles, like the PS2 after 6 (six!) years had ?

  • Linkman25

    Posted May 13, 2006 4:16 am PT

    To Deathbringer, at the end of page 4:

    "Ps3 will sell better than Xbox360 and Wii!!! The price tag means nothing to most people anyways." This is absolutly not true, the price tag does matter, a lot in fact, and a 600$ price tag matters even more. Unless you are spoiled and rich you can surely see how the price matters.

    "Sony is reliable and in the end always gives the gamers what they want....a large variety of games pertaining to everyone is the way to go" First off, gamers want low prices. Then, can you honestly say that the other consoles (either from the current or the next gen) have no titles that appeal to all gamers?

    "instead of having almost all FPS, sports and racing games like the XBox360, or mostly kids games like Wii, sony is there to bring you all of the obove and more" The 360 has a lot of FPS, Sports and Racing games true. But they have good ones. And they'll keep on having better games. Plus, with it's low incursion in Japan, it'll also have some nice RPGs to appeal to them. Also, Wii's stuff is mostly for kids? Have you seen the line-up? It appeals to gamers of all ages, from a spongebob game to Red Steel and the upcoming Sadness. Plus a new RE. Finally, sony offers all of the obove? It's above and they all do.

    "adding in Final fantasy and all the huge RPG's that will be released in the next year and a half, devil may cry4, warhawk, MGS4, the list goes on" All the great RPG's for the next year and a half? What are you psychic or something? FFXIII might be good, but what makes you so sure DMC4 and Warhawk will be? MGS4 will be awesome, sure, but Kojima has been hinting at a 360 release for the game...

    "microsoft has halo3 as there one game to go on and on about" The 360's only game? Have you watched E3? And it's their, not there.

    "while the Wii will have Zelda, other than that they have mostly mediocre games" again, i applaud you for your ability to see the future. According to you, Super Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime 3: Corruption, WarioWare, Red Steel and Super Smash Bros. Brawl (to name a few), will all be mediocre... You say this dispite the fact that the Wii currently seems to have a stronger first 6 months in terms of games then the PS3...

    "the fact is that sony hits you with classic after classic non stop, where as the other consoles will be few and far inbetween" I repeat, have you seen the Wii's line up? Plenty of first party strong titles, in a very "non stop" manner. Also, how does Sony hit you with classic after classic nonstop? You mind giving some examples?

    "If the price is what your worried about, then your not a real gamer, real gamers go for 1 thing, reliable games that you will want to play." Well, if being a real gamer means being a financial idiot then ok. I'm not gonna stop paying my electric bill just bacause I want a Ps3. It's not like I have my parents to beg to.

    "I'm not saying that there will not be many fans of the other consoles, but what i am saying is that sony will keep streaming in amazing innovative games that this world has never seen" Uuuuhh... According to your sense of innovation, a brand new coat of graphics is innovative, but a totally new, fresh concept of control and gameplay isn't?

    "it took developers almost 5 years to put Shadow of the Collosus out on shelves" how is this even relevant? Source please.

    "if Ps3 is anything like Ps2, in 2 or 3 years we'll see things we would of never dreamed of, where as Micromoney and Nintenot will still be stuck with there lowgrade crap games that keep showing up...If your a gamer you will get Ps3, i guarentee it" the perfect conclusion to the perfect commentary. I like your original approach to grammar, as well as the fact that, even though you never played any off the PS3's or the Wii's games, you are able to qualify one as quality and the other as "lowgrade crap". Bravo. Observe this post as an example kids. One to never live by.

  • Incomplete

    Posted May 12, 2006 9:36 pm PT

    Optimusv2 said:
    "The 360 is NOT doing poorly in japan..."

    And you're not in denial... really. You realize that the Gamecube has sold more units so far this year? THE GAMECUBE FFS

    Latest Media Create figures:

    GC sales this year: 47,340
    X360 sales this year: 46,143

    The X360 might pass the GCN next week though not that it matters much. I'm sure you get the point that the X360 is a joke and it's doing even worse than the XBox 1.

    For the record, they made it sound like the X360 is doing worse than it really is in Europe.

  • Omihalcon

    Posted May 12, 2006 9:32 pm PT

    regardless of potential sales at this point i think its a miracle that nintedo has, to a large degree, put itself back in the game with wii; like 6 months ago a lot of people had written it off and i myself (longtime nintendo fan) was contemplating forgoing the revolution. Now im looking forward to seein wat it can do and cant wait for the release

  • Omihalcon

    Posted May 12, 2006 9:31 pm PT

    regardless of potential sales at this point i think its a miracle that nintedo has, to a large degree, put itself back in the game with wii; like 6 months ago a lot of people had written it off and i myself (longtime nintendo fan) was contemplating forgoing the revolution. Now im looking forward to seein wat it can do and cant wait for the release

  • UntoldDreams

    Posted May 12, 2006 9:28 pm PT

    Japan again? Give it a rest... Count how many RPG's are on the Xbox. Then count how many RPG's are on the 360 RIGHT NOW. RPG's are what Japanese love the most. Tell me again why you prescribe racism to the fact that Microsoft simply didn't GIVE them any RPG's. What I'm surprised about is the fact that you are assaulting Japan for it. What, should they switch in love Halo because it will make you personally happy?

  • UntoldDreams

    Posted May 12, 2006 9:25 pm PT

    Well actually Japan loves the iPod which is well known as an American company...

  • kaito2

    Posted May 12, 2006 9:16 pm PT

    simbasa-as someone who lived in Japan for over six years, I completely agree with your comments about racism and Japan.

  • comthitnuong

    Posted May 12, 2006 8:25 pm PT

    w00t for china

  • simbasa

    Posted May 12, 2006 7:52 pm PT

    oh and the comments about japan and gaijin are correct but any 'pc' people will deny it. don't buy into the politically correct idiocy that is ruining the u.s.a. racism is a big problem in japan...largely because they deny it exists. do a search if you don't believe it...racism and elitism but it is different than here in the us. i love japan but it has as many problems as anywhere else. they just don't talk about it freely like the u.s.a.

  • simbasa

    Posted May 12, 2006 7:45 pm PT

    wii is a great idea. i will buy 1 before a ps3. some of the graphics were so-so but the PRICE is right. you fanboys forget that the mass consumer is what makes or breaks a system. there are not as many hardcore gamers as there are casual. 600 bucks is alot of money for ps3 and to be honest the games looked just like 360 games. nothing special. good ...not great. most people are not willing to spend that kind of money on games. expect ps3 sales to be hot as all the hardcore gamers snap them up and then cool way down after a month or two..provided they have enough at first. i think the game industry here is going downhill for now. nintendo should be able to still compete with the hd consoles. blu-ray? or toshiba's? well we shall see about that

  • binzryu

    Posted May 12, 2006 7:39 pm PT

    i doubt 50 dollar games are gonna go up well against the same game for 1.50 in china lol

  • pianoman0723

    Posted May 12, 2006 7:16 pm PT

    That is very interesting. Proffessional analysts are predicting that the Wii will save the industry. Very interesting indeed...

    Now I want to show a non-gamer the Wii demonstration footage and the PS3 demonstration footage to see which one they would buy. That is the market that we are all forgetting. Despite the negative rap some people online are giving the system, we still do not know what non-gamers will think.

  • Oni

    Posted May 12, 2006 7:14 pm PT

    [This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

  • bh_icecold

    Posted May 12, 2006 6:47 pm PT

    Nintendo is the only company that could get China... too bad they have like 1 "American" game... (Red Steel). for America, i'm going to say 360... maybe PS3 if i give up eating for a year and can afford it... and PS3 is down from $800 to $600. maybe it will get down to $500.

  • NeoJedi

    Posted May 12, 2006 6:07 pm PT

    I guess you shoot for the non-hardcore gamers in China, Korea and Japan with MMORPG's... as for the US (and Canada), you go for the hardcore gamers with stupid sequels or FPS after FPS...

  • mhorbatuk

    Posted May 12, 2006 5:04 pm PT

    wow thats some pretty hard-core fanboyism by deathbringer

  • Ereph

    Posted May 12, 2006 4:57 pm PT

    Eh, re: China- There've been a couple of really good points raised about it. Pricing disparity is going to be a pretty big issue from a casual glance, as you do have an enormous population but an extreme rift of income/equity distribution. Consequently, yeah, you could say that there's a large potential market, but is it a mass market for $600 USD consoles? Not so much. You're going to have people selling knockoffs for better, as it's been pointed out, and in this way the market really isn't as close as it may seem to maturing into a big cash cow. Best bet is more of the innocuous/casual gaming, where you've got a rapidly spreading/necessary technology (namely, cell phones) that might not be as easy to pirate and might not be worth it. The others will also depend in part on this similar idea of accessibility, where the PC arguably has the edge: you can wander into any net cafe and play for however long you want and can. Consoles, with their costs and orientation towards more Western-style living aren't quite there yet, and aren't quite as simple as the other technologies like the TV that exploded in popularity/ubiquity in Asia long ago. That's my ramble.

  • D3athbr1ng3r

    Posted May 12, 2006 4:51 pm PT

    Ps3 will sell better than Xbox360 and Wii!!! The price tag means nothing to most people anyways. Sony is reliable and in the end always gives the gamers what they want....a large variety of games pertaining to everyone is the way to go, instead of having almost all FPS, sports and racing games like the XBox360, or mostly kids games like Wii, sony is there to bring you all of the obove and more, like adding in Final fantasy and all the huge RPG's that will be released in the next year and a half, devil may cry4, warhawk, MGS4, the list goes on....microsoft has halo3 as there one game to go on and on about, while the Wii will have Zelda, other than that they have mostly mediocre games, the fact is that sony hits you with classic after classic non stop, where as the other consoles will be few and far inbetween, If the price is what your worried about, then your not a real gamer, real gamers go for 1 thing, reliable games that you will want to play. I'm not saying that there will not be many fans of the other consoles, but what i am saying is that sony will keep streaming in amazing innovative games that this world has never seen, it took developers almost 5 years to put Shadow of the Collosus out on shelves, if Ps3 is anything like Ps2, in 2 or 3 years we'll see things we would of never dreamed of, where as Micromoney and Nintenot will still be stuck with there lowgrade crap games that keep showing up...If your a gamer you will get Ps3, i guarentee it

  • kid_icarus

    Posted May 12, 2006 4:50 pm PT

    Others have said the same thing, but since I am currently sitting in China and have lived there for the past two years, I wanted to say that no one will sell any consoles here anytime soon because piracy is everywhere here--there would be no point. Until you come here, you really can't understand how much piracy there is: it's everywhere. Recently, people have even started "pirating" oranges by putting fake labels on them. You can't walk down the street without being offered pirated DVDs or software. My friend went to an authorized Sony retailer in a local mall looking for a PS2, and not only did they have them for sale (despite the fact PS2 is not supposed to be for sale here), the ones they were selling already had mod chips put in them. Honestly, I don't think that you could buy a console here that wasn't modded--people look at you like you are insane if you ask. And since a pirated PS2 game will run you about 75 cents at an expensive store, who can blame them? Maybe some day the government will crack down and put a stop to it (anything you hear about the government cracking down now is just garbage) but until they do, there's no point in trying to sell anything here.

  • FuguNabe

    Posted May 12, 2006 4:30 pm PT

    Truely as they say the existing market is stagnating and for further growth Nintendo took the risk to try to capture the oppotunities. Smart move IMO but will it be enough in the west as most western casuals still are wowed about graphics. I applaud them for their effort. Still these forecast are mainly based on info before the E3 me think. Now that the gaming world are more informed about all three next-gen consoles anything could happen. I have a feeling that in Japan where I'm at it will be neck and neck between Wii and PS3 though somehow I feel the Wii is going to expand the market and get a pretty big chunk of the pie this time around here. People making income are looking at value for their money. Still with many having more than one system these days it looks like Wii will have an advantage there too. China are more into PC gaming for all I know (considerinf counterstrike being so popular) so I don't know how the next-gen consoles will do there but there is certainly huge potential there to be tapped. I must say that all these analysis make points but are rather non-conclusive. I should've became an analyst after graduating business so I can just get $$$ for educated guessing......

  • Linkman25

    Posted May 12, 2006 4:05 pm PT

    I like how people say analysts know nothing, or that they're always wrong, when in fact, they studied this, it's their lives and jobs to analyse data and process it.

    That said, I'd really like to say that I don't understand the reason why the 360 does so poorly in Japan or here in Europe. Well, actually, I can get Japan, since it's a very niche market, but Europe? The games that sell well in America usually go the same way in Europe. But, in spite of this, the numbers for the last gen are something like a ton of PS2's, some GC's and few Xbox's. I don't have one myself, but it's simply because it came out too late for me.

    Frankly, I think I know why the Xbox didn't sell very well. Because of 2 games:
    GTA and Pro Evolution Soccer (Winning Eleven).

    These came out for the PS2 before the Xbox (and PES didn't even come out on the Xbox) and are the games that the majority of PS2 owners have here. In fact, if you ask someone if they have a console, they'll answer PS2 most of the times, but they don't even have Final Fantasies or Metal Gear Solids. No. They have GTA for single player fun and PES for several player parties. And that's it. The few gamecube's sold were either to children (although I have one myself) and hardcore Nintendo fans. Which left MS out in the rain.

    Naturally, Europeans are biased towards the PS3 here, but casual gamers are not yet aware of the price (they will when the game magazines for June come ot) which will divide them. On one side, the GTA, PES loving ones, on the other, the people who find unreasonable to spend so much money on a console. Besides with the announcement of GTA for the 360, this splits them even further!

    Splitting the Sony fanbase will have a double effect. Either the 360 takes over, with games casual gamers are used to, and a lower price tag, or the Wii takes over both casual and non-gamers, opening the market up for new gaming visions. Sony comes out losing with both events. Even though I'm sure people will buy the PS3 at launch, the main problem is non-gamers find 500/600 euros for a console a huge excess, further stagnating the market as the analysts predict it is now.

    As for people saying the 360 should only sell in the US... Well, that's just dense. Even if everyone on the US got a 360, the outside market, including only Europe and Japan, are still bigger. If that happened, sony and nintendo would rush the European market and flood the Japanese one, leaving MS high and dry.

    I find these analysts predictions to be fairly accurate, and one of the biggest problems on the industry is piracy. Out of everyone I know here in Europe that have a PS2, only 2 of them have a non-hacked one. They get top games at launch for 10 bucks, which hurts the market.

    I think companies should focus A LOT on the non-gamers and on preventing piracy. We know one console that does the first one, but do any of them have valid anti-piracy?

    Also, something which is very untapped (besides Nintendo) is the handheld market. With Nintendo dominating it, and Sony pretty much failing at their attempts to break Nintendo's lock on the whole market (it's the number talking people, the ammount of individuals who have PSP's on the net does not reflect its real value in terms of units sold) it would make sense for companies to start out their progress there instead of on the home console one. One thing I love about the handheld market is that a new competitor always appears for Nintendo. So Nintendo has to work hard to boost the quality of their handheld games and systems. If you add their veterancy to the equation, you end up with competitors coming and going and the quality of the games always increasing (NSMB, Castlevania DoS, y'know, those nice DS releases).

    I agree with these analysts nice job.

  • crazy_boy166

    Posted May 12, 2006 3:24 pm PT

    article way too long i dint read so hhhhhhuuuuuummmmmm....
    i guess i should invent something........yeah sound good as long as it is not
    frekin politicians trying to screw up the industry of game

  • LordBrittish

    Posted May 12, 2006 3:14 pm PT

    AFT_lizard01,

    You are right, the PSP would have a distinct advantage against the GBA. I just wish there was something Nintendo could have done to better mask their plans.

    I think Nintendo still could have pulled ahead if they would have givin PSP a 3 - 5 month lead. That might have put them at an advantage around October.

    It's pretty much a "What if?" argument.

    I just hate how Sony and MS have to copy Nintendo just to get it right, ya know?

    Oh well, Nintendo will blow us away either way.

  • josh_b

    Posted May 12, 2006 3:14 pm PT

    I think microsoft should focus on us here in the U.S. and Europe since that's the only places where the console actually sells well.Forget China and Japan.. they don't want the 360 anyway.

    I like Sports and FPS and Racing and RPG's . The 360 caters to American gamers. It's one of the main reasons i don't like the ps2. I can't stand Jpn. Rpgs and most of the other games they produce except Resident Evil and Metal Gear Solid.

    If Microsoft focused on us and us only then they would have way better sells and possible come out on top in the console war.... here anyway. hell they might actually make a profit on the system if it was U.S.only.

  • assassinX01

    Posted May 12, 2006 3:08 pm PT

    has anyone else noticed the descrepency between the reports on success from third parties and those from microsoft?

  • aft_lizard01

    Posted May 12, 2006 3:05 pm PT

    Lord_Britain,

    So you think the DS would be able to catch up to the PSP, after giving them a year headstart, that quickly?

    Nintendo did the exact right thing by releasing the ds when they did.

  • cmapp

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:58 pm PT

    Sounds great, and Wii is the future..

  • Sudland

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:53 pm PT

    I dont listen to this. I rather wait to year 2010

  • LordBrittish

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:37 pm PT

    Honestly, I think it was a bad move for Nintendo to release the DS as early as it did. Sure, Sales jumped through the roof, but now Sony and MS are quick on Nintendo's heels trying to steal it's shine. They realize that nintendo's stance on "innovation" is the right way to go and now they are going to try their hardest to screw Nintendo over by copying their moves and adding their $$$ support to wash em out.

    If nintendo would have waited till...say...this month to release the DS and Sales blew up around October, the Wii would be PRIME and the only innovating console and Sony and MS would be frozen in shock at the Success of both the DS and the Wii.

    But, seeing as how Nintendo chose this strategy, Sony and MS now have almost a half of a year to plot against them.

    Sometimes I wonder if E3 and the showcasing your Arsenal is good for the Big N. Hell, Look at Sony. They Ripped Nintendo off in two weeks time. Now they have 4 months to sit back and innovate even more.

    I am worried, but excited.

  • adroitone

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:36 pm PT

    Optimusv2, wow, do you understand that the 360 is doing worst than the Xbox when it first launched? If you remember the xbox, then yeah, it's doing very poorly. And please don't make me prove it, because it'll be embarrassing, trust me.

  • btnheazy03

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:33 pm PT

    Let's lure new gamers by selling them $600 consoles!

  • Optimusv2

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:27 pm PT

    The 360 is NOT doing poorly in japan... he just pointed out there were shortages in europe so how the hell can the 360 outsell a ps2 if its short on supply? 360s sold out in europe as well.

  • StrikerGold

    Posted May 12, 2006 2:20 pm PT

    'Expanding on his theme that "Xbox could do better," he quipped "in Japan you can see why it's called the 360--I think that's the number of units that were sold."'

    Ba-ziiiing! I don't agree with alot of what he said, but its cool seeing lines like this coming from non-Sony fanboys. Course he could be for all I know. Still, its probably one of his more accurate statements.

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