Analyst: 1m PS3s to hit US in November

Pacific Crest Securities expects Sony's next-gen console to arrive in force by Thanksgiving, pegs Euro-launch for 2007.

At the Consumer Electronics Show earlier this month, Sony executives delivered a keynote address about its vision for the "digital future." But although Sony touted the PlayStation group as one of the cornerstones of its plan, it gave few new details about the forthcoming PlayStation 3. The only concrete information came in the form of a brief aside from Sony Computer Entertainment America president and CEO Kaz Hirai saying that the PS3 is "a key pillar of Sony growth in 2006."

The death of official information from Sony has forced Wall Street analysts to once again put on their prognostication hats. The latest industry-expert augury comes from Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson, who believes the PlayStation 3 won't launch until November, versus the "spring 2006" window announced at E3 2005. Speaking to the Investor's Business Daily, Wilson also said the "the most likely scenario" is for Sony to ship around 1 million PS3s in North America by the end of the year. That's nearly three times as many Xbox 360s Microsoft sent to US and Canadian stores in 2005.

One reason for the delay--and the greater number of units--is that Sony is almost certain to wait until they gain a greater "chip yield" of its vaunted new Cell processor. In layman's terms, that means the company is waiting until it fine-tunes the manufacturing process to get a maximum number of usable processors possible per batch of silicon. Though such a move would delay the PS3 launch, it might not be such a bad idea. The Xbox 360's launch was marred by massive console shortages--shortages Microsoft executives have attributed to manufacturing issues.

As for other territories, Wilson predicts that the PS3 will follow the model of the PSP, debuting in Japan first, most likely in the summer, followed by the console's North American launch. He believes the PS3 will arrive in Europe last, sometime in early 2007.

203 Comments

  • 677325

    Posted Feb 3, 2006 8:21 am PT

    I was realy worried that I had made the wrong choice in buying a 360, but if this is true I am glad I did because there is no ****ing way I am waiting till 2007. If Sony do this I think we are gonna see Microsoft ruleing the gaming industry, because there is no way people are gonna wait a year for a next-gen console when they can get one right now.

  • Taryn-

    Posted Jan 22, 2006 10:51 am PT

    im not imortal im tired of waiting..ill be 17 by the time it comes out..

  • miiiguel

    Posted Jan 19, 2006 2:02 am PT

    I'll buy a PS3 but I dont "wait", I'm not addicted to any brand, so I can have fun with other consoles, such as my new X360 and PSP. It's nice to be "brand free".

  • miiiguel

    Posted Jan 19, 2006 2:02 am PT

    I'll buy a PS3 but I dont "wait", I'm not addicted to any brand, so I can have fun with other consoles, such as my new X360 and PSP. It's nice to be "brand free".

  • Kwzy

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 1:47 pm PT

    I will wait for PS3 anyway

  • racer360

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 1:17 pm PT

    i have a 360 so ill just laugh at sony fanboys when they have to wait till nov

  • boo_dat

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 12:38 pm PT

    again, I will wait for a next gen GTA until I purchase a PS3...360 can go to hell as far as I'm concerned

  • MaSt3RT57

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 11:45 am PT

    Whenever it come out, i'll be getting it. I definitely see it coming out in november of this year though, simply because as of now sony has not yet set a price, or at least let everyone know what it is. They're just dragging it out till summer, then they'll say it's another 6 months so everyone stick it out, before going to buy a 360.

  • Stenny_boy24

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 11:34 am PT

    cant believe sony sendin the ps3 to europe beginnin of next year its out of order
    least send it before america or same week make it a bit fair on us
    maybe britain(europe) shud make there own console then it will be fair

  • miiiguel

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 11:21 am PT

    initial411: Man..., english is not my first language, and I'm pretty bad at it, but yours suck even more. I have a word for you - "TBA"!

  • initiald411

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 11:09 am PT

    HALO is the most over rated game in the history of my life its good be daaamn calm down about halo is not gonna make me get roll over in bed never mind make me buy a 360 show me something other then a crap load of fps games and 1 rpg and i'll see what I can do till then my PS3 is on pre order and will stay that way till launch

  • adrianpolonis

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 10:46 am PT

    I hope so...

  • miiiguel

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 10:24 am PT

    I had problems with PSP (I'm at PSP nº 3 by now, and still has 2 dead-pixels), no problem whatsoever with X360, up until now though, the overall quality of the materials used in the X360 (at least "seems") top-quality.

  • Cloud3033

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 10:20 am PT

    WHATEVER IT AT LEAST BETTER COME OUT THIS YEAR... SO I CAN WAIT, ILL JUST STICK TO THE PS2!

  • masiisam

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 10:19 am PT

    1)If it is November 2006 or spring 2008 PS3 will still see the SAME shortages as the 360. NO company and I mean NO company is going to sit on units in a warehouse where they can be sold in the market place.

    2) Any new system is going to have bugs. And that’s it, nobody has ever had a clean launch of hardware, why is this so surprising that MS has had some problems. Every and all consumer electronic has problems. You just hear of few problems that are there. How many posts do you see saying my 360 works perfect and I have no problems. None.

  • FartSlash

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 10:16 am PT

    I'm fine with delays as long as the PS3 is better than the 360 was at launch

  • miiiguel

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 10:02 am PT

    Is there any shortage of X360 ? I had no problem buying mine... .

  • balindos

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:58 am PT

    I have read some good point in this form. Especially on how Sony is delaying there launch cause the 360 launch wasn't all that it was expected. But like everybody has been talking about, did MS do this on purpose to make Sony delay???? So now MS gets a full year ahead instead of 4 months. Something to think about. Especially that earlier this week the news came out saying all 360 orders to fulfilled and demand to be all caught up with. Sounds like these 2 companies are playing games with each other and messing with the consumers minds.

  • GamerDudeB3

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:50 am PT

    cool this will give them time to produce these PS3..... So there will be enough for everyone unlike 360

  • littlestreakier

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:48 am PT

    late 06 is a mor reasonable time frame thought. sony still has to work out a couple of issues with the cell and they still need to build a launch line up of good games. so the developers of the games need more time to. i'm sure the PS3 will be a killer system, but lets face it...a system isn't nothing without good games. not that i'm sayin PS3 won't have any, cause i know they'll have lots of good games, but launch in early to mid 06...doubt there'd be any good games at first.

    i'd rather have the PS3 launch late with everything worked out, then have sony rush it.

  • DaaawwwgggG

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:43 am PT

    If its november then .. Bye bye My money that i saved for ps3 and hello Xbox360

  • remmbermytitans

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:42 am PT

    this is all messed up.... PS3, XBOX 360, its just too much money.... i was impressed with sony's and M$'s ps2, and xbox, and i told myself that i would at buy at least one of those systems along with a rev, but i might not be able to b/c they are just too pricey... i cant afford a $400+ system... AND $60-$70 games.... theres just no way.... the only way i think gamers can go without going broke is nintendo... $200-$250 for the system... and games, (i hope) will stay at $50.... that seems somewhat reasonable..... this is what nintendo saw coming.... too pricey games, and consoles.... and sony and M$ played right into nintendo's hands.....

  • miiiguel

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:19 am PT

    Sony-only geeks must be tired of "TBA" acronym. LOL!

  • msalz1

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:12 am PT

    Meh....let's see how much they will charge for it and how much the games will be. I can't afford 5- 700 dollars for a gaming system and 70 bucks a pop for a game. Blue-ray was an expensive way to go Sony. Gamers don't have a money tree in their back yard....well maybe some but most don't.

  • Drakonis39

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:09 am PT

    The way I see it, the PS3 releasing that late and with only 1 million units, thats not looking so hot. Especially with that much extra time, why only 1 million? Further note, I'm still betting there's going to be a problem with defective PS3's, regardless what anyone wants to have happen. It's just the way technology is, first gen always has problems these days, except from maybe Nintendo. The 2 big names Sony and MS really need to key into the concept it's not the money, it's the games. Nintendo has that right, and in such hasn't released a faulty product. Not saying they have good support or anything, but at least their hardware is done right. Hopefully Sony doesn't have too many defective consoles but we'll have to wait and see. Also here's hoping for not another PS2 like release (stupid lack of units). My final note, 360 looks to be having some awesome games coming BEFORE September, and it won't take that long to fix the problem people have been having as well as getting more consoles on the shelf. I give it around April or May latest before we see a stable and constant flow of 360's on shelves. Good luck to all manufacturers, and hopefully an awesome gaming year for 2006!

  • GameGuy360

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 9:06 am PT

    Damn It! I was hoping it was in spring! Oh well, i'll just buy a Xbox 360 for now. But i'm still going to preorder the PS3!

  • neobita

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 8:51 am PT

    yay

  • mrhs84

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 8:43 am PT

    we will see.....................!
    for now Xbox 360 is more than great

  • brotherscampos

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 8:17 am PT

    So close but too far

  • yasso

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 8:16 am PT

    I don't think that Sony will worry too much about Xbox360 being the only next-gen console out there through 2006, mainly because there aren't too many next-gen attractive titles that are going to the shelves this year. At least not until late 2006, in which November 2006 fits perfectly. This basically means that PS3 hopefully will be available about the same time enough next-gen exciting titles are made available. Under normal circumstances, these predictions can make sense.

  • shefox

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 8:02 am PT

    i try not to listen/believe what people say other than sony itself when it comes to ps3 release date...just hoping it's not later than fall 06

    bump mapping suxxors

  • jaefrmbk2k

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 7:42 am PT

    gimme dat ps3 so i can sit it nexx to mah dual core/crossfire pc & i'm good-i'll be over your haouse if i wanna play w/a 360

  • kretyn

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 7:36 am PT

    Dont give a flying you know what. I could care less if they didnt release the system at all. This gives the Xbox360 plenty of time and a good lead to stablize the system properly in the markets. The PS3 will cost around $700 easily and the games will not be any better then they are on the Xbox360. Sony made a big mistake not launching around the same time as Microsoft.

  • Seraphim_24

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 7:35 am PT

    I think Sony has a very interesting dellema here. EIther they can launch early and risk shortages, and technical issues, as well as unpolished titles like the 360 had (Great games they are, but they don't even scratch the surface of what the 360 can do) and yet not have to worry about having M$ have a full year to themselves without next gen competition, or they can let M$ have the year to themselves but take the time to polish thier launch line up, and also make sure the manufacturing is going smoothly.
    Right now I don't feel that they are feeling pressed to launch the system any time soon simply because despite the Xbox 360 sellouts there are numerous complaints of shortages, faulty systems, and games that just aren't a huge leap over the old XBox. Even playing upscaled Xbox games on the 360 can help reveal that there really hasn't been a huge leap in performance, at least not out of the launch titles.
    Unless M$ starts flooding the shelves with 360s and gets some games that show off what the system can really do on the shelf to accompany the unit, and the system starts selling out in the millions of units I highly doubt we'll see the PS3 before Novemeber. Besides, a November launch may have another benifit, technology gets cheaper with age... perhaps given the extra time SOny could launch the unit and its games for a more reasonable price than what I see floating around the net.

  • del_boy56

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 7:23 am PT

    Spring 07! Thats quite good actually, means i'll defo be able to afford one at launch cause I just spent over £600 on 360 stuff and I'm planning on getting a Revolution when that comes out in July, maybe?

  • Catrinemarine

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 7:19 am PT

    i like my 360 and my gamecube and my psp i dont realy need something that expensive long live the 360!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!And yes im a microsoft fanboy

  • SavoyPrime

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 7:03 am PT

    I believe it will probably release here in North America in the Fall. I don't mind them taking their time as long as there will be plenty of PS3's to go around. It disgust me that some people who preordered their X360's STILL don't have them yet.

  • insane956dv

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 6:39 am PT

    silicon shortage, heck just go to vegas and they'll get all the silicon they need. PS3 Rocks. and yea 360 too (stupid name though)

  • bigboss_3zoz

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 6:36 am PT

    i will wait even for 100 years to get my ps3 .the ps2 still have great games.im looking forward for the rev. the 360 (what a name!!!) forget about it.

  • spacemonkey

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 6:22 am PT

    All I can say is that waiting shouldn't hurt Sony.... after all the Dreamcast was out over a year before any of the others, and look where that got them. When you get into the game doesn't affect the outcome, how good and well received your games are does.

  • netzenopt

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 6:19 am PT

    All I can say is that if waiting until November means a killer console than I;m all for the delay.

  • phoenix14

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 6:12 am PT

    I hope it's doesn't launch until November, but if it does then i guess it wont be that bad it will just give them more time to increase the shippment quantities and inprove the mistake....also give me more time to save up for a HDTV

  • adu_nye

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 6:09 am PT

    I don't want to wait

  • odiedodie

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 5:13 am PT

    I dont care when it comes, so long as the price is right

  • Panzer_scout

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 4:54 am PT

    Lol and relol!!! November??? Give me a break here! And of course Europe will have to wait till 2007. For sure, i say goodbye PS3 And HELLO XBOX360!!!

  • ocdog45

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 3:17 am PT

    can't wait. sounds about right. I expected a december run. either way one will be in my house on the release day

  • onlineps2player

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 1:35 am PT

    I WANT PS3 AS SOON AS POSSIBLE!
    and I'll wait for that.
    NO XBOX,
    NO REVOLUTION

  • onlineps2player

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 1:32 am PT

    Sony will be th loser,
    because no one would wait for that,
    XBOX 360 will be buyer's goal in summer!

  • menmau

    Posted Jan 18, 2006 12:27 am PT

    Tou ma vir cum caralho!!!!!
    So tenho que gastar todo o dinheiro que tenho no filho duma puta do banco.
    Prá ai 500contos na consola, mais 4000 contos por 2 tv de alta definição para essa merda, há e ja agora para alimentar essa merda tanho que mandar contruir um caralho duma central nuclear ao pe da minha casa, e tb um aputa duma barragem com umas ventoinhas eolicas integradas, e mesmo assim nao sei se aguenta...
    Vão~sa foder mais o caralho da PS2 e PS3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • mythrol

    Posted Jan 17, 2006 11:52 pm PT

    I was figured the PS3 would launch around November. Right in time for the holiday shopping season. Though the thing about 1 million units I find hard to believe. I have a feeling the PS3 launch will be close to the launch of the PS2. 500K units tops. Even that is pushing it. The PS2 used average computer components and launched with under 500,000 units. And they expect the PS3 to launch with 1 million units using a brand new chip? Eh. I dunno about that. We will see.

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