Analysts expect modest growth for June

By Brendan Sinclair, GameSpotPosted Jul 20, 2007 4:41 pm PT

A trio of industry watchers offer their expectations for the NPD Group's US retail sales tally; software sales expected to grow between 8 and 20 percent.

The last few months have been a bit of a retail roller coaster for the game industry, with domestic game sales actually declining year-over-year in April, followed by a 33 percent sales surge in May, according to the industry-tracking NPD Group. With NPD set to release its US retail sales data for June 2007 on Monday, a handful of analysts have made their predictions on the results, and it appears they expect the roller coaster to even out somewhat.

In a note to investors, Pacific Crest Securities' Evan Wilson pegged software sales to be up about 10 percent over last year's $444 million take, bringing the total close to $490 million. Wilson names Transformers, Harry Potter, Pokémon Battle Revolution, and Resident Evil 4 Wii Edition as the best-selling new releases, with the DS and Wii leading the hardware pack with up to 425,000 and 400,000 systems sold, respectively. He expects the PlayStation Portable to have sold around 225,000 units, with the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 topping out at 175,000 and 100,000 respectively.

Wedbush Morgan Securities' Michael Pachter was slightly more pessimistic on software sales growth for the month, telling investors to expect a tally of $480 million, up 8 percent from the year before. He also warned that gaudy growth rates will be harder to come by, given that strong sales in the back half of 2006 will make for tough comparisons. As for the console wars, Pachter predicted Wii sales to have totaled 435,000, while the Xbox 360 will have sold 200,000 systems compared to the PS3's 100,000.

Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian was more upbeat than his peers, predicting a software sales bump of 15 to 20 percent. While his numbers skewed higher than consensus expectations, he acknowledged that hits from June 2006 like THQ's Cars and Take-Two Interactive's Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories made for a tough comparison. As for hardware sales, Sebastian said the Wii and DS remained in strong demand, while the PSP is expected to see a bump in units sold.

The NPD Group released its Canadian retail game sales data yesterday, reporting a 31-percent jump in software sales, and a 60-percent spike for industry sales when factoring in accessories and hardware.

65 Comments

  • delcidanddarth

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 5:50 pm PT

    @Ninjeti

    I know that list you are referencing about "exclusives" for each console. Unfortunately, the 360 list is bloated with many "console exclusives", but are also offered for the PC. If the point of an exclusive is to attract new gamers to buy your console, you have to take the 360 list with a grain of salt, since anyone with a computer could choose to play the PC version and not buy a 360. If you remove those, you end up with fewer exclusives than nintendo.

    Of course, none of this means anything because what counts is GOOD exclusives, not just number of games. I'd rather have 5 great exclusives than 50 crap exclusives (which is what I think of all the consoles' line-ups... a whole bunch of crap with a few gems sprinkled in).

  • ebookerd1

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 1:30 pm PT

    That is good for the industry growth means more jobs and quality games. And that about raps up all my feelings toward this topic. no fan boy crap from thank you.

  • Humorguy_basic

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 10:36 am PT

    Cheap old gaming (that's what I call it!) is the fastest growing gaming genre on practically every gaming machine (except handheld and the Wii)

    People want cheap retro gaming cvomplilations, they want cheap retro gaming available for download. On PC they want casual games that are cheap and although not old are designed for older PCs. So with retro growing I would say that is a sign on console that modern games are now too shallow and with too little content for the cost, and on PC they go for retro and casual games because they run on their current machine and they are going down that road as they have no intention of upgrading their PC in the next 12 months.

    This all tells me something is happening in video gaming, whether PC or console. There is a very fast moving trend away from modern games to either older or simpler games. This is why retro is growing on the PS3, 360 and PC and why the DS and Wii are both doing so well. The bigger the retro market the more likely a large down turn in modern game sales. The roller coaster we are going through now with regard sales is just the start of it. I expect game sales for the PS3, 360 and PC to have half the total sales in 2 years time that the PS2 XBox and PC had in game sales 2 years ago.

  • Jaioxung

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 9:38 am PT

    @ Ninjeti

    Lets look at it this way; The last XB produced maybe 4 good exclusives through its entire lifespan, Halo 1&2, KOTOR and Fable. I'm willing to bet that of the 91 X360 exclusives coming up, 50 of them are going to be the same dull, FPS crap we've all played 900,000 times before, just with shinier graphics. 2 are racing game that came along as an answer to Gran Turismo. 9 games might be something new, but most likely will tread the same stale ground we've all traveled for the past 5 years. And 30 of them will be utterly deplorable, unplayable steaming turds. So I'd peg the "must-play experiences you can't get anywhere else" at around 0.

    Check out the hightest rated 360 games here on gamespot. You'll notice that only three of the top ten games are exclusive.

  • typester

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 9:10 am PT

    kid below me says lair will be great while halo 3 isn't. lol blind fanboys

  • ACbomber

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 6:53 am PT

    PC gaming is dead: stealing a pc game is far too easy.... i think 1 in 10 of my friends actually buy their PC games... then again i'm in canada, which was threatened to be put on a black list.....

  • NinjaMunkey01

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 6:32 am PT

    the ps3 will pick up pace. I believe that developers need to take real advantage of the technology it offers. I have all 3 consoles (yay) and I can see that the ps3 will soon be on everyones wish list. Ido not see the great nee for the 360. It was just out first and everyone rushed to buy it. now the consoles just crash all the time having to be replaced. Cant wait for games like lair. 25 gigs of space was needed to create that game! 25gigs! sorry but all of the games exclusive to the 360 are limited to 9 gigs and that is a joke compared to the blue-ray. I cant wait for all the good exclusives coming for the ps3! halo is the only 360 exclusive I want but even that is not great.

  • Makhdoom82

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 3:03 am PT

    Well a good reason for modest sales this maybe that consumers are all waiting for some kind of price drop on everything ... but for PC gaming it has been modest sales for about a year now .... good titles are very scarce and nobody knows when is that going to change !!!

  • Olly464

    Posted Jul 23, 2007 3:01 am PT

    Arthur470, You are right, thats what i've done too. But the actual building of it is actually quite difficult, and if you don't know what your doing you could end up in hospital! Didnt happen to me though.

    Oh and yeah nghtwlr821 is also correct, grow up!

  • Ninjeti

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 11:38 pm PT

    stu_godd

    "it seems like every one is confused to why the ps3 is doing badly and paniking about it.and yea its just lack of games.i predict sales will dramaticly increase wen gta/mgs4/haze/asassins creed are released"

    the only ps3 exclusive there is mgs4 and i wouldn't be suprised if that went to the 360 too, like almost every other game. i'd rather get the 360 and have the exclusive gta4 extra content. i don't have a 360 year but i'm getting one when the new 65nm is released. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Double Agent,Alan Wake (from the makers of Max Payne 1 & 2), Halo 3, Full version of GTA4 (PS3 is getting a inferior version)
    Ace Combat 6, Mass Effect, Bioshock, Too Human, Eternal Sonata, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Gears of War, Project Gotham Racing 4, Forza Motorsport 2, dead rising, fable 2. they also confirmed ninja gaiden 2 for the 360 but not for the ps3. This year PS3 has 41 exclusives, Wii has 76, and 360 has 91

  • DiscGuru101

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 11:26 pm PT

    Until GTA:4 comes out, not much new software coming... Especially for the BS3 -@SonyRulzU: No, Sony rules you. Undeceive yourself kid.

  • nghtcrwlr821

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 10:27 pm PT

    All the fanboys (Nintendo, Sony, PC, and Microsoft) all need to grow up and realize that gaming politics is a waste of time. Play games on all systems. Until you do that you'll never be a true game player. ( I hate that damn "Gamer" word)

  • XBASX

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 6:06 pm PT

    Predictions predictions.
    Tommorow I'l be rich

  • Arthur470

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 3:04 pm PT

    Just one thing for all you people out there who say PC costs a lot of money:

    PC GAMING COSTS ABOUT THE SAME AS CONSOLES, because if you know what you are doing, it is possible to build $2000 PC for half of that money. That's what I did last year, and now I have PC that will play any game I want. The key is to buy parts separatly, and then put the computer togeter yourself. It is really not that hard, anybody with a brain should be able to do it. Here is the breakdown of what i did/bought:

    Pentium Dual Core 3.4 Geg processor/motherboard combo -$340
    G-force NX 6600 256 mb videocard- $150
    DVD-ROM - $50
    Soundcard supporting 5.1 channel sound- $50
    2 GB RAM - $200
    430 Watt powersupply - $70
    Case- used one from my old PC, lol
    80 GB 7200 RPM hard drive - $60
    Total: $920 plus tax

    Then, there is also keyboard/mouse (cheap. $50 for both), and monitor,
    but if you already have a computer, you should have those too.
    And, if you are into online gaming, a network card- but those are cheap too, for $50 it's possible to get a really nice one.

    So, there we go - about $1000 for a computer that will play anything.

    Now, the consoles:
    One has to consider, that to experience next-gen console to its full capacity high-def TV is a must. Those TV's alone cost close to $1000, even some of the smaller ones. Plus, the consoles themselves- 360- $400 (I personally think that the Elite is not worth getting), PS3 - $500, plus the games are more expensive, $60 per game, vs $40-$50 for a computer game. That's at least $1500 just to buy a console and a decent TV to play it on. Except for Wii, of course, but Wii is the sort of thing that people ether love or hate- I've known people that can't put it down, and people who got rid of theirs within two weeks, because they were bored. I appreciate Nintendo for trying something new, though, I totally plan on getting myself one, ones they become available.

  • stu_godd

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 1:48 pm PT

    it seems like every one is confused to why the ps3 is doing badly and paniking about it.and yea its just lack of games.i predict sales will dramaticly increase wen gta/mgs4/haze/asassins creed are released

  • R3V3N4N7

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 1:05 pm PT

    This time is always slow with only one or two must buys out.

  • arbiter1024

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 11:33 am PT

    @rpgisforme, "Analysts don't have a clue and I bet none of these guys who predict the gaming sales even own a system. Ask the gamers and we'll tell ya how it's gonna go and that is simple"

    You should try playing the simExchange then. Its a prediction game for video games driven by gamers and developers. In the past three months, predictions from the simExchange have been more accurate than analysts for predicting NPD console sales.

  • tristangreer

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 10:56 am PT

    Mixmasta,

    If PC companies could standarize their machines like consoles do to keep the average player from having to upgrade every six months to a year, then maybe PC gaming would be a bigger market.

    The fact is that the majority of gamers are not hardcore gamers, and are just looking to have a fun time with some good games. The consoles are delivering on this. Plus, casual to moderate console gamers don't have to worry about compatibility and such, which appeals to those who want to pop a disk in, play for a while, and call it a day.

    Hardcore PC gaming might be cool for those who have upwards of $2K to spend on a rig, but not everyone enjoys blowing quite that much money on a machine that will be obsolete in a couple of years.

  • dantesergei

    Posted Jul 22, 2007 9:52 am PT

    i wish i could have BOTH consoles that way i can play all the best games i dont even have a ps3 or 360

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