GameSpotting

Craig Beers
PC Video Editor

Now Playing: Warcraft III: The Frozen Throne, Advance Wars 2: Black Hole Rising
Will Upgrade Computer For: Half-Life 2, Doom 3

The G-Man's Half-Life 2 Release Conspiracy Theory

I find this whole situation surrounding Half-Life 2 to be quite amusing. There is an appearance of miscommunication at every turn regarding the release date, with a hint of unlikely but still possible backstabbing. Speaking of backstabbing, there's that whole spectacle with video card manufacturers. Valve is putting on a good show here, and all I can do is sit back and laugh.

When is Half-Life 2 going to be released? That's the question on everyone's mind. It was originally scheduled to come out on September 30, 2003. I'm sure there was an "or when it's done" clause, but everyone has been expecting it September 30 anyway. I think it's a safe bet that we won't see it on store shelves at the end of the month. So why are Valve employees still saying September 30? Judging from forum posts, people think this is the word of God: "Half-Life 2 will be released on the 30th. Mr. X at Valve said so!"

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Only the G-Man knows the truth.
But Valve is only a developer; the game will never be put into production without the publisher, Vivendi Universal Games. This actually makes me very curious, because Vivendi has remained tight-lipped so far. Vivendi appears to be talking to retailers, because companies like EB have it listed for a November release. Yet Vivendi still says nothing to the consumer, not one press release smacking down Valve's claims. As successful as Valve is, the company can't go against its publisher.

Or can it? Valve has been developing Steam, its streaming content delivery platform. Valve will use Steam to authenticate CD keys, update its game, and even let you purchase games over the service. What's to keep Valve from giving Vivendi the big middle finger and just releasing the game on Steam? Current numbers from Valve say 500,000 people have already subscribed to Steam in just four days. It's a totally viable option. I'm sure there are agreements between the companies, and any breach of contract will incur huge penalties. Though perhaps Valve has some accounting monkeys figuring out whether it's possible that if they pocket the revenues for self-publishing Steam they can cover this cost and still make a big profit. I don't think it's likely though. I just thought I'd throw that out there because it is an interesting concept that may come into play in the future. Who knows where we'll go with Internet delivery. All I know is that Valve is doing a cool job of being a pioneer with the Steam system.

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The masses await Half-Life 2 like rabid animals.
I also threw that theory out there because some other company got shanked in the back by Valve recently--at the Valve/ATI event where Radeon cards outperformed Nvidia cards in tests. The focus has been between the card manufacturers, but Valve is in the center of everything. They knew that Nvidia hadn't released new drivers yet and would be at a disadvantage. Valve may have seen a strategic move here considering ATI's rise in market share in the past year. Just because Nvidia is at the top right now doesn't mean it's invincible. Look what happened to the former king, 3dfx. Of course, there's also a deal with ATI to bundle Half-Life 2 with video cards. Valve is no stranger to maneuvering to better position itself, so it may try to strike out on its own if it suits the company.

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All these forum posts have more appeal than any billboard advertisement.
Returning to the actual release date, I think the more likely explanation is that the secrecy and controversy is manufactured. Let's face it--you are going to buy Half-Life 2. No matter what happens, Valve and Vivendi know they aren't going to alienate fans. In fact, Vivendi is no stranger to loyal fans who patiently wait out release dates. Warcraft III sold lots and lots of copies despite delays. Their main goal now is to attract customers who aren't quite sure about the game. What's a great form of marketing? Why, word of mouth. Look at any forum. Half-Life 2 is like every other topic. These people unwittingly become free marketing tools for Vivendi. By not announcing a definitive release date, threads everywhere ask questions and draw in readers. It sounds like a sure plan to me. I guess I'll have to join the ranks and post more threads about how Gabe said this and Gabe said that.

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