I don't think any of the sequels that are coming out (Fable 2, GTA4, MGS4, DMC4, NG2, GT5, SSBB, etc) will win it and if they do, it'll be kinda sad that those games are winning in year 3 of the alleged "next-gen". Those games will probably be good, but they aren't mindblowing anymore. MGS, GT, GTA3... when those came out they introduced entirely new ways of viewing games, introduced new genres, or took an old genre and did something that you couldn't have imagined happening up until then.
The sequels to these games aren't really doing that. They are basically last-gen (or older) games with better graphics and maybe now the sound is 5.1 rather than stereo. I think a new game will come out and totally flip everything on its head and create an experience that simply wasn't possibly before or that nobody had ever thought of before. Or it will blend multiple genres that nobody thought to blend in a way that hasn't been successfully done.
Off topic and kinda ranting: I love RPGs, but I'm personally waiting for the genre to die. Why is that every other genre thinks character customization, a plot that the player helps shape and mold rather than just act out, emotional attachement to characters, etc is a waste of time and not worth persuing or creating. Every now and then you see someone try to incorporate that with another genre and the game usually ends up being AAA and a contender for game of the year... but then nobody else emulates it.
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