PS4 to lead all consoles with 51 million sold: 2016 - IDC

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#1 Edited by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

As I don't have any games to play on my Sony systems I invite you to play sales with me. Winner stays on.

International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.

Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.

That being said, total eighth generation console hardware revenue actually is projected to come in above the comparable seventh generation total thanks to higher average selling prices (ASPs). It's a different story, however, for the physical disc business, which IDC forecasts will see 45 percent fewer discs sold to retailers in the first six years compared to the seventh generation physical games sales.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...ld-by-2016-idc

Looks like lots of people feel as if Kinect is the problem. Discuss.

#2 Edited by super600 (30320 posts) -

After the prediction IDC made last gen I don`t trust them that much. The PS4 will sell 10-15 million lower than that by then most likely, but this will depend on the time period they are talking about. The rate of PS4 adoption in Japan will most likely cripple the amount the PS4 sells by then.

#3 Edited by lostrib (34657 posts) -

Dat IDC

#4 Posted by santoron (7692 posts) -

Lotta bold statements from an entity with a poor track record.

#5 Edited by charizard1605 (56082 posts) -

Remember this?

EDIT: damn it lostrib!

#6 Posted by ghostwarrior786 (3902 posts) -

well they are a company who spends money to make estimates so i trust them 100%. sony is going to dominate this gen, this much is fact. truth fact

#7 Edited by Couth_ (10016 posts) -

That's 16 million a year.. Not sure about that but it's POSSIBLE

#8 Posted by delta3074 (17906 posts) -

As I don't have any games to play on my Sony systems I invite you to play sales with me. Winner stays on.

International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.

Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.

That being said, total eighth generation console hardware revenue actually is projected to come in above the comparable seventh generation total thanks to higher average selling prices (ASPs). It's a different story, however, for the physical disc business, which IDC forecasts will see 45 percent fewer discs sold to retailers in the first six years compared to the seventh generation physical games sales.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...ld-by-2016-idc

Looks like lots of people feel as if Kinect is the problem. Discuss.

The same company that claimed the PS3 would shift 105 million units by 2012, the 360 would only sell 40 million units by 2012 and the PS3 would outsell the wii by 2012.

yeah, Not buyin it.

http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Analyst_predictions?file=ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif

#9 Posted by Desmonic (13454 posts) -
#10 Edited by TigerSuperman (1984 posts) -
#11 Posted by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -

51 million by 16? Sounds fox crazy.

More like 35 to 40.

#12 Edited by super600 (30320 posts) -

@TigerSuperman said:

So they believe in one year (estimating what the PS4 will be at by December of this year) that the PS4 will somehow sell close to 40 million?

Sig

____

New2: http://www.ebay.com/itm/161295749952?ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1555.l2649

They are probably counting until the end of 2016 or start of 2016. It will literally have to sell 22.5+ million in Europe,22.5+million in NA and like 6 million everywere else by 2016 to get anywhere near 51 million.It`s a lot more doable if they are talking about by the end of 2016, but I really don`t think the PS4 will have anywere near a 5 million LTD in Japan(2-4 million is likely for an LTD in Japan by then) to make this prediction even possible by the start of 2016.Smaller countries may have an ltd under a million.At the rate the PS4 is selling it will be at 6-9 million by the end of the year in NA,6-9 million in Europe and under a million in Japan(most likely). The only time the PS4 will be able to sell like crazy is during the holiday season, but it won`t be enough to put it at 51 million by the start of 2016 and maybe even the end of 2016.

#13 Edited by tonitorsi (8301 posts) -

I believe it.

#14 Edited by RR360DD (11620 posts) -

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

#15 Edited by tonitorsi (8301 posts) -
#16 Edited by RR360DD (11620 posts) -
#17 Posted by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LMAO! Lems can't play the sales, or games card.

bu bu bu

#18 Posted by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -

@ladyblue said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LMAO! Lems can't play the sales, or games card.

bu bu bu

And you are playing Putty Squad and Steamworld Dig? GTFO.

#19 Edited by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

#20 Edited by kuu2 (6971 posts) -

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

Thread/

Man I remember these projections last gen and laughing all gen. Now Sony Fan trots out another dumb prediction made by the same dummies that brought you this information last gen.

Sony Fan continue to be the clowns of SW.

#21 Posted by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -

@ladyblue said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LMAO! Lems can't play the sales, or games card.

bu bu bu

And you are playing Putty Squad and Steamworld Dig? GTFO.

Bwahahahahah sit down you salty lem.

keep the tears coming.
#22 Posted by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -


@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

#23 Posted by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

No future release dates for anything on the usual list wars either, hell even Driveclub has a release date now. Good job they liked Titanfall, they'll be playing it for a while. On top of that, inferior multiplats a plenty. I'm looking at you Watch_Dogs.

#24 Edited by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -
@ladyblue said:

@FoxbatAlpha said:

@ladyblue said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LMAO! Lems can't play the sales, or games card.

bu bu bu

And you are playing Putty Squad and Steamworld Dig? GTFO.

Bwahahahahah sit down you salty lem.

keep the tears coming.

Not even close. Keep living in that mad denial about playing crap filler. Someday you will get a 9/10 game to play that isnt a Facebook game.

#25 Edited by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

No future release dates for anything on the usual list wars either, hell even Driveclub has a release date now. Good job they liked Titanfall, they'll be playing it for a while. On top of that, inferior multiplats a plenty. I'm looking at you Watch_Dogs.

Yep, and while i have been playing the shit out of Forza 5 with new cars and tracks, cows have been watching 10 clips of DelayClub. WatchStation confirmed. Greatness hanging on by a thread.

#26 Edited by SolidGame_basic (16882 posts) -

I'm willing to entertain that idea. I think Sony is going to not make the mistake of releasing great games so late. They'll get them out the door this year and next and by then they'll have a price cut too.

#27 Posted by Gue1 (9513 posts) -

sony will dominate, there's no doubt about that.

#28 Edited by clr84651 (5367 posts) -

As I don't have any games to play on my Sony systems I invite you to play sales with me. Winner stays on.

International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.

Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.

That being said, total eighth generation console hardware revenue actually is projected to come in above the comparable seventh generation total thanks to higher average selling prices (ASPs). It's a different story, however, for the physical disc business, which IDC forecasts will see 45 percent fewer discs sold to retailers in the first six years compared to the seventh generation physical games sales.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...ld-by-2016-idc

Looks like lots of people feel as if Kinect is the problem. Discuss.

Where's Lost Rib the PC fanatic to tell you that you can't post sources like this? LOL

#29 Edited by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

@FoxbatAlpha said:

@misterpmedia said:

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

No future release dates for anything on the usual list wars either, hell even Driveclub has a release date now. Good job they liked Titanfall, they'll be playing it for a while. On top of that, inferior multiplats a plenty. I'm looking at you Watch_Dogs.

Yep, and while i have been playing the shit out of Forza 5 with new cars and tracks, cows have been watching 10 clips of DelayClub. WatchStation confirmed. Greatness hanging on by a thread.

lol less of the over compensation please. I know you like the game but c'mon. WatchStation, lems have been telling me about Cloud_Dogs for a good while now, loss of confidence, perhaps?

#30 Posted by lostrib (34657 posts) -

@clr84651 said:

@misterpmedia said:

As I don't have any games to play on my Sony systems I invite you to play sales with me. Winner stays on.

International Data Corporation (IDC) is preparing to publish its latest console forecast and the research firm has given GamesIndustry International an exclusive preview of the report. There are several key takeaways to note, including Sony's dominance of the new console cycle, Microsoft's need to unbundle Kinect, and a general decline in the physical retail side of the games business.

IDC predicts that Sony's PlayStation 4 will have the single biggest share of the market in 2016 with 51 million sold globally. Microsoft hasn't been faring quite as well, but IDC believes Xbox One will make a serious comeback, particularly in North America where it's forecasted to take the lead. This will be spurred on by unbundling Kinect, IDC said.

"The presumed unbundling of Kinect and Xbox One, which should facilitate rough price parity between it and the PS4, should lead to a spike in Xbox One sales; assuming the console and sensor are unbundled in 2015, IDC expects Xbox One to recover and emerge with the largest installed base of any console in North America by the end of 2016," the firm explained.

Meanwhile, Nintendo's Wii U is expected to finally receive "the equivalent of a $50 price cut worldwide in late 2014 or early 2015," but it won't make a serious dent in the installed base gap between Wii U and the competition.

Looking at the bigger picture, the retail component of the video game business is expected to see continued declines, IDC said. IDC's forecast states that, together, eighth generation consoles will generate about 10 percent less retail revenue from console hardware and disc-based games than seventh generation (Xbox 360, PS3, Wii) consoles did combined through their first six years on the market.

That being said, total eighth generation console hardware revenue actually is projected to come in above the comparable seventh generation total thanks to higher average selling prices (ASPs). It's a different story, however, for the physical disc business, which IDC forecasts will see 45 percent fewer discs sold to retailers in the first six years compared to the seventh generation physical games sales.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...ld-by-2016-idc

Looks like lots of people feel as if Kinect is the problem. Discuss.

Where's Lost Rib the PC fanatic to tell you that you can't post sources like this? LOL

...I would be the 3rd post in this thread.

#31 Posted by clr84651 (5367 posts) -

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

#32 Edited by lostrib (34657 posts) -

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

#33 Posted by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -

@FoxbatAlpha said:

@misterpmedia said:

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

No future release dates for anything on the usual list wars either, hell even Driveclub has a release date now. Good job they liked Titanfall, they'll be playing it for a while. On top of that, inferior multiplats a plenty. I'm looking at you Watch_Dogs.

Yep, and while i have been playing the shit out of Forza 5 with new cars and tracks, cows have been watching 10 clips of DelayClub. WatchStation confirmed. Greatness hanging on by a thread.

lol less of the over compensation please. I know you like the game but c'mon. WatchStation, lems have been telling me about Cloud_Dogs for a good while now, loss of confidence, perhaps?

No loss here. Meh all around with that one from jump street.

#34 Posted by clr84651 (5367 posts) -

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

#35 Edited by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

So what I've learned by the replies is that this website has a fantastic track record and that I should probably rely on them more for future predictions in the console space.

Good to know.

#36 Posted by lostrib (34657 posts) -

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

Tell who off?

#37 Posted by HaloinventedFPS (4713 posts) -

No way in hell it's going to hit 50mil by 2016, maybe by 2018

#38 Edited by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

Tell who off?

#39 Posted by clr84651 (5367 posts) -

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

Tell who off?

Never mind. I was just joking around.

#40 Edited by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

Tell who off?

I think he's using playground rules. I can feel the circle being formed already. Do you fight dirty?

#41 Edited by lostrib (34657 posts) -

@clr84651 said:

Never mind. I was just joking around.

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

Tell who off?

I think he's using playground rules. I can feel the circle being formed already. Do you fight dirty?

Yeah, I have no idea what the hell he is trying to get at

#42 Posted by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -

@FoxbatAlpha said:

@misterpmedia said:

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

No future release dates for anything on the usual list wars either, hell even Driveclub has a release date now. Good job they liked Titanfall, they'll be playing it for a while. On top of that, inferior multiplats a plenty. I'm looking at you Watch_Dogs.

Yep, and while i have been playing the shit out of Forza 5 with new cars and tracks, cows have been watching 10 clips of DelayClub. WatchStation confirmed. Greatness hanging on by a thread.

lol less of the over compensation please. I know you like the game but c'mon. WatchStation, lems have been telling me about Cloud_Dogs for a good while now, loss of confidence, perhaps?

Sad lem already got tired of Titafall, and went back to playing launch games. hahahahah

Meanwhile sony fans get to play

Infamous

MLB the Show

Bound By flames

All the excellent indies, that don't arrive on xbone, while they wait for Drive Club, the order, Uncharted, Rime, Last of US remastered(game of the forever, but better), Project Beast and the superior version of every multiplats.

Deal with it dirty lemming.

#43 Edited by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

@clr84651 said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

You gotta fight with this guy for using this source. You can't allow lies like this to be told! LOL!

What the hell are you talking about?

C'mon tell him off for using it.

Tell who off?

I think he's using playground rules. I can feel the circle being formed already. Do you fight dirty?

There is no damn good topics right now. We need Sony to fire someone or fully implement DRM. This shit is killing me. I am finally on my PC and not that hunk of shit iPad and this happens.

#44 Posted by StrongBlackVine (8418 posts) -

@super600: You have been a PSs4 pessimist from Day One so I taking any you say with a grain of salt, actually a lot of salt!.

I'm pretty sure all the increased sales in the US and UK will mitigate any damage from loss of market in Japan in which it still outsell Xbox One easily.

#45 Posted by misterpmedia (3363 posts) -

@FoxbatAIpha lol I agree. I'm in the mood for an argument.

#46 Posted by StrongBlackVine (8418 posts) -

Transistor and MLB The show are both going to be very good games. Lems lose again in May. Bound By Flame is meh, but better than NO game.

#47 Edited by FoxbatAlpha (6164 posts) -

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@FoxbatAlpha said:

@misterpmedia said:

@ladyblue said:

@misterpmedia said:

@RR360DD said:

@tonitorsi said:

@RR360DD said:

@lostrib said:

Dat IDC

And cows have be owned again.

LOL

LOL at all that indie filler

lol at that massive baron wasteland that is near future Xbone game releases.

They haven't had anything to play since the first week of March.

No future release dates for anything on the usual list wars either, hell even Driveclub has a release date now. Good job they liked Titanfall, they'll be playing it for a while. On top of that, inferior multiplats a plenty. I'm looking at you Watch_Dogs.

Yep, and while i have been playing the shit out of Forza 5 with new cars and tracks, cows have been watching 10 clips of DelayClub. WatchStation confirmed. Greatness hanging on by a thread.

lol less of the over compensation please. I know you like the game but c'mon. WatchStation, lems have been telling me about Cloud_Dogs for a good while now, loss of confidence, perhaps?

Sad lem already got tired of Titafall, and went back to playing launch games. hahahahah

Meanwhile sony fans get to play

Infamous

MLB the Show

Bound By flames

All the excellent indies, that don't arrive on xbone, while they wait for Drive Club, the order, Uncharted, Rime, Last of US remastered(game of the forever, but better), Project Beast and the superior version of every multiplats.

Deal with it dirty lemming.

I just played TitanFall on Sunday. How many achievements did you get playing it?

Oh and they are some real gems you listed there. Especially the one about the emo hipster.

I'm not mad at you though.

#48 Posted by Animal-Mother (26555 posts) -

@FoxbatAIpha lol I agree. I'm in the mood for an argument.

I'm in the mood to buy an Xbox one

I put away a lot of money last week so i'm kinda tempted to spend it

#49 Edited by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -

Transistor and MLB The show are both going to be very good games. Lems lose again in May. Bound By Flame is meh, but better than NO game.

Thats what they get for buying the bone. lol I almost feel for them, but then they post, and I put them in their place.

Bunch of angry lems. lel

#50 Edited by LadyBlue (3927 posts) -

@FoxbatAlpha: "I'm not mad" precisely what a mad lem would say. lmao