Pachter Believes The Nintendo NX Will Cost Around $299

@mesome713: you know mesome I kinda sorta like you and I sometimes admire your loyalty, passion and dedication to Nintendo

BUT........

I just can't help but picture you in a dark room some where staring at a Nintendo logo while choking your chicken and busting all kiiiiinds of nuts while screaming out nintendooooo!!!!

Could be, who knows. Personally, I expect a machine releasing in 2016-2017 to top hardware released in 2013.

The problem is the NX should be equipped to handle the PS5/Xbox 4, not to set the bar so low to match the 2013 PS4/Xbone. That's the kind of thinking that got Nintendo in this position in the first place. Of course, gimmicks cost money and tech matches that. We don't know the NX gimmick.

Not sure why you quoted me or why you mentioned a specific machine as my post didn't talk about any other machines.

It could be a lot of things depending on what Nintendo decides (if they shoehorn a gimmick as they've done the last two machines, that takes funds away from the tech).

Its important for gamers to keep their gaming hands in top condition you know.

haha nice one!! I can't argue with you there my friend ;-)

I didn't say install base, I said audience. They can be one in the same, but in this sense they are distinct. The Wii had a massive install base, yes, but it didn't matter because the audience that would've bought ME and AC wasn't among them. It was comprised of casuals (for lack of a better term) like soccer moms, retirees, and granny and grandpa. In turn, the install base for the U is paltry, but the audience is mostly all comprised of people who buy Nintendo games, not only that, but audiences that only desire those type of games. Nintendo's done nothing to try to expand their demographics: no cinematic games, realistic shooters or racers, barely any open world. The audiences aren't there. Had the Wii been more powerful, the only benefit it would've granted would've been cost effective ports, but so what? To an audience that's elsewhere? Again, that is not the only (nor most important) element.

So aside from Nintendo doing everything in their power to make their machines essentially Nintendo boxes that neglect whole genres and tastes outside their own comfort zone, online is also now a major factor in audiences' decisions to purchase and also for a developer to place them there (I've touched on this before). Players have become invested in PSN or Live, they pay for it, it's where they have their trophies, streaming, voice/party chat, etc. To make it all the worse....it's where they play with their friends. So in order for Nintendo to uproot those people and bring them on board, they would be undertaking a massive plural effort, but first they'd actually have increase their cultural appeal and start to compete with Sony and MS offer in terms of online, and as they've said, they don't like/"are poor" at competing. It will lead to their downfall or ultimate niche appeal, as we are seeing happen.

Gamers have found their homes online, so have publishers and developers, who are comfortable with Sony/MS's infrastructure that enables them to offer their services. And that's essentially the gist of why, even given power, third parties will be hard pressed to bother with Nintendo: online has blossomed and gaming has evolved somewhat into a service and not just a product and Nintendo has failed to keep up. Not only in software that fails to appeal to all audiences, Nintendo simply doesn't provide that service up to the standards people demand today due to philosophical differings, and they let (through numerous instances of shortsightedness) their audiences be snatched away by Sony and MS when online was in its infancy.

Now they will pay the price because that infrastructure is what third parties want. IF they and audiences come back to Ninty, it will be an undertaking that encompasses years. They have a lot to fix, and that's due to inaction and stubbornness from the past.

This is a hybrid-console. $300 would be very hard to go for, I call bullshit.

Pac-man is ignoring or just ignorant of the leaks about the high-end specs for the NX graphics demos.

It's pointless to try and design NX to be price-aggressive when the low-end market will be covered by 360, PS3, and WiiU; and the mid-range market will be supplied with X1 and PS4. If NX is to attract existing PS4/X1 owners as well as the 50% of the market that will still be uncommitted to a new console when NX launches, then Nintendo must design it as a $400 new-gen console with NEW hardware.

Should the NX be $199 and have some power added or be $349 and be very powerful? Or should it be somewhere in between that range?

What do you mean "and have some power added"? Genesis type add ons are a horrible idea.

It should be $299, minimum. Any less and they'll start to compromise power.

He predicted the prices for Xbone and PS4 100% correct. I'd trust him on this.

Assuming NX can & will run all games at (1080/60fps) at medium-high detail quality settings no compromise & using new tech ...Nintendo would sell it at $350USD minimum & max I see $400 even $425. I don't see Nintendo selling lower than $350 if it can do *Assuming* bit. :P

Misspoke, I meant Super Mario Sunshine was the last openworld Mario game

I mean built into the system if possible. No add ons. If not then it could be priced at $249.

I think it should be $349. I would like for it to have good 3rd party support.

@superbuuman:

My comments are only estimates for AMD's year 2016 products. Nvidia's road map also has similar large FLOPS(floating point per second) gains with thier future products.

Not including the failed Wii U, current generation consoles are semi-customised from similar generation AMD PC products.

Like any fleet OEM PC builder, the minimum for Nintendo is to follow AMD's 14 nm process tech PC APU products. Both Sony and Microsoft followed 28nm based AMD GCN PC product stack e.g. 7790 and 78x0 models.

AMD/Nvidia performance jump would be less if PC market has TSMC's 20 nm process tech after 28 nm process tech. Both AMD and Nvidia has skiped 20nm process tech.

In terms of basic concept, building computer chips is similar to dark room photography, hence my optical 28 nm to 14 nm picture example.

AMD would need HBMv2 to effectively maximize their next 14nm based PC APU.

In case if you've missed this or forgotten this, here is this news.

Rumor: Nintendo NX Tech Demo Can Only Run On PCs With ‘Cutting-Edge’ Chips

I heard that a handheld unit will be packaged with the console. I don't just don't think it will be $300.

With 14nm process tech, 240 mm^2 size AMD APU/SoC chip can contain 44 CU GPU

AMD Carrizo APU/SoC has ~240 mm^2 chip area size.

PS4's APU/SoC has 348 mm^2 chip area size with about 212 mm^2 20 CU GPU.

The rest of 110 mm^2 chip budget can be allocated for the mobile part.

From very mature 28 nm process tech, 14 nm (Global Foundry) and 16 nm (TSMC) process technologies are large jumps for PC GPUs.

Staying with 28 nm process tech from December 2011 (7970 original) to December 2015 is too long. TSMC was late with 20 nm and there's not enough manufacturing slots with additional Apple and Qualcomm contracts.

It wont be $299. I would be more than shocked. Nintendo wont sell at a loss, and at $299 there isn't any possible way if the console is noticeably stronger than the PS4.

It is going to be 499.

AMD 14 nm APU replaces 28 nm APU around the current price segment e.g. AMD A10-5800K APU is priced at $88.75 retail and chip size is 246 mm^2.

AMD Carrizo APU/SoC has ~250 mm^2 chip area size.

With 250 mm^2 chip size and 14 nm process tech, AMD can fit 44 CU GPU in it which is Radeon HD R9-390X class GPU.

With 14 nm process tech, Radeon HD R9-390X's 438 mm^2 is optically scaled to 109 mm^2.

Radeon HD 7770 has a chip area size of 123 mm^2 with 10 CU.

My 14nm process tech enabled 240 mm^2 APU with near top end Radeon HD R9-390 class PC GPU estimate fits with Rumor: Nintendo NX Tech Demo Can Only Run On PCs With ‘Cutting-Edge’ Chips

funny if that includes a handheld and a console as some rumors indicate, I see little issue with that price.

but yeah they do need 3rd party support, meaning they need a x86 architecture. Would not really mind a pricetag like that if those things were in order.

@SolidTy: Remember, building a console with competing specs to the Ps4 and Xbox One for a 2016 release is going to be cheaper than doing it in 2013, as technology becomes increasingly cheaper over time. I'd imagine the profit margins on the ps4/xbone have increased considerably since launch.

A nintendo console with third party support, a decent online infrastructure with achievements and all the things the competition has, whilst not charging for online would be really bad news for sony and microsoft, more so sony because while ps has been the go to for third party japanese games, with nintendo back in serious business, japanese third party will flock to the nx, all you need is to look at the japanese market where the wiiu is the market leader on first party alone, if they include that handheld at 499 as well it might the highest selling console of all time in japan where handhelds and mobile is very strong, it might do wii numbers worldwide ( it has the potential admiteddily), but will sell gangbusers nonetheless.

Remember what?

I know and I've explained 'tech prices go down over time' point over the years here in SW. Didn't I already say something to that effect? I'm not sure if the reply was supposed to be to me? Making the NX with comparable specs in 2016/2017 would CLEARLY be cheaper than the 2013 PS4/Xbone machines, but that's not the only thing Nintendo does.

Looking at the 2012 Wii U vs. 2005/2006 PS360. You can see the Wii U was more in the same range with some extra juice to spare when comparing the last gen PS360 older machines, but the 2012 Wii U was in a poor position when the 2013 PS4/Xbone machines released, again losing out to a ton of multiplats.

Looking at the 2006 Wii vs. 2001 Xbox/GC/PS2/DC. Again, you can see the newer 2006 Wii was on the same playing field as those 2000/2001 machines with again more power than those old machines, but not enough juice to get the majority of PS360 multiplats.

Was the Wii and Wii U enough power to woo the majority of PS360 3rd parties big multiplats? Nope. In the end, the next wave of 2019 PS5/Xbone machines will release could once again overpower the NX.

The problem isn't just price with Nintendo, it's their grand objective including any gimmicks they may try to shoe in for the NX and eat away at their tech budget. Of course, there is also profit as they tend to release machines at a lower price point and yet still rake in profit on day one due to going with lower specs.

I'm not worried that Nintendo are NOT going to release a PS4/Xbone equivalent machine, history shows that they will make a current gen machine with some extra juice to spare (how could Nintendo not? After all, the prices are lower today than they were in 2013 machines). My fear is that they ARE going to release a PS4/Xbone equivalent machine and that simply won't be enough power for a 2016/2017 NX console to survive the storm of the next wave of 2018-2020 PS5/Xbox 4 machines. Nintendo needs to plan for the PS5/Xbox 4 to break this cycle they created.

Of course, anything can happen with the NX. Nintendo could make a more PS4/Xbone styled machine with more power and drop all gimmicks, but will they? Even if they did that, would developers even use the extra juice or just slap PS4/Xbone ports on it and call it a day? Would it be fair that Nintendo fans have to buy two home consoles within a generation to buy Nintendo games (like it looks like I'm doing)? Will the NX machine be able to stand up to the force of the next PS/Xbox consoles? That means, it's possible the NX will be underpowered a few years after release and again Nintendo would have to release a new console after the NX or risk losing multiplats like we saw with the Wii and Wii U. The life-cycle of the Nintendo consoles is shrinking which is more costly for the consumers.

I agree with what you are saying but I'm not sure why I was quoted in the first place since what you said is my sentiments as well. I just articulated my thoughts more to prevent more misunderstandings.

For PS5/Xbox4 vs NX, it depends on process tech improvements from TSMC and Global Foundry.

Relative to Xbox 360 and PS3, 2006 Wii has hardware feature issue i.e. Wii's GPU wasn't in the same class as DX9c++ GPU and it's worst than my year 2004 laptop's Radeon 9600M. Wii's CPU is a weak single core PowerPC 750 with 64bit SIMD (it's not even PowerPC's 128bit VMX SIMD). The fault is with Nintendo's selections.

My year 2010 DELL Studio 1645 laptop with first gen Intel Core i7-740QM (8 threads, 1.73 Ghz base, 2.93 Ghz turbo) + Radeon HD 5770M (400 stream processors, DX11) can still play current game generation at reduced graphics level. Intel Core i7-740QM still has the CPU power to play unmodified game play modeling from PS4/XBO era games. Radeon HD 5770M is just DX11 version of Radeon HD 4670M (320 stream processors).

With XBO/PS4 games, Wii U's weak CPU (with 64bit SIMD hardware) can cause XBO/PS4's CPU side game play modeling software has to be rewritten i.e. CPU side game play modeling being design for 6 core/6 threads AMD Jaguar with each CPU core equipped with 128 bit SIMD hardware at around 1.6Ghz.

Intel Core i7-740QM has 128bit SSEx SIMD hardware.

Project Cars on Intel Pentium G2030 (3Ghz, 2 threads) and Radeon HD 5570/6570 (desktop version of 5770M)

Project Cars on Intel Core i3-3220 and Radeon HD 6670 (480 stream processors, DX11).

Radeon HD 6670 is slightly faster than 5570/6570 with the same DX11 feature set..

Without sufficient CPU power, Wii U can't run PC style reduced scaled games.