Michael Pachter: VR Gaming is a fad

GamingBolt spoke to Pachter about the potential of VR gaming going forward and whether it would be a mainstay in the industry or fad away like 3D gaming.

“Yes, I think it’s going to be a fad. I think that no one solved the vesticular motion problem which is where you get disoriented because your eyes are seeing something that the rest of your body isn’t experiencing. I think it’s an interesting concept, don’t get me wrong, and I think Facebook is right, there is potential for it beyond gaming…

“I mean, gaming is a fun reason to buy something, especially a device like Oculus Rift, but the truth is that maybe virtual surgery, or something like Ender’s Game or actually doing anything that way, there’s huge potential beyond gaming, but nothing as far as gaming goes.”

Would this be similar to the Kinect which has a multitude of applications beyond gaming? “Right, and just like there aren’t very many compelling Kinect games, other than maybe sports or dancing, that anyone actually says amount to much, similarly I think there will be a few virtual reality games that will be compelling and great, but a hundred?

“I doubt it. It’s hard to develop for, people aren’t going to develop for it unless there’s a large install base, and it’s too much of a niche for a large install base to ever show up without software. So I’d say fad is the right term.

SOURCE

This is just one of the things Michael Pachter told me in my interview with him- we talked about a lot of things, including who'll win E3, PS Now, Xbox Live, the potential for an Xbox One/Wii U/PS Vita comeback, cloud gaming, Valve's Steam Machines, and more. But the one thing that stuck out most to me was his opinion on VR gaming, which he thinks is a fad, similar to how 3D gaming was. That's the one we've posted as an individual news item right now, and more should be coming soon, including the full interview, but first...

What do you all think about that? About his opinion on VR gaming? I have personally held that opinion for the longest time, but the industry does seem to be going gaga over Oculus... what do you all think, though? Does the Pachter Law dictate that VR gaming will inevitably be a success now?

lol pachter

when he say something the opposite always happens

so morpheus succes confirmed

People still take Pachter seriously .? Lol , he is an idiot .

VR is the future as soon as the hardware is in place the tech will take off. I myself would like virtual vacations and fights and racing and porn.

I don't want gaming to change, never liked the idea of VR as I love just playing with a controller. Why fix what isn't broken? Maybe I'm not open-minded like the rest of you but I don't care.

People only listen to Pachter when he says what fanboys wanna hear.

plz stop quoting pachter

I hope he's wrong again. I think the odds are good.

Like motion controls, yes it is a fad.

He's really not. He's a very smart guy who makes his clients a lot of money.

Doesn't something have to be popular to be considered a fad?

I struggle to agree, because motion controls never created reactions like these --

I now look forward to VR becoming the dominant form of gaming in the near future.

yes it is.

I trust Pachter with his business analysis but when it comes to being a barometer for trends, he is not exactly batting 1000.

@musicalmac: LMAO VR gonne be insane cant wait! i want!

He didn't say it wouldn't be successful. He just said it would be a fad. Meaning it will only keep peoples interest for a limited time.

Gaming in General is a Fad :p

filled with Faddets ! Haha

VR is the future.

VR isn't being pushed like 3D was though, so I doubt it'll be that kind of fad. You can tell when something is going to be a fad because everyone suddenly sticks their hat in the ring to make as much money as possible before it dies out.

The points comparing it to Kinect are just weird to me too, VR DOES enhance games and provides a layer of immersion on top of standard controls so saying there's "nothing for games" is just silly. Kinect removes those controls and tries to use movement for input which just isn't a viable control method for 99% of games which is why it's failed so much which gaming.

So just because that reason he becomes a good analyst .? Tell me next time when what he says becomes reality (and makes sense) . His clients/Colleagues/Employers are as bad as he is .

LMFAO! Beautiful movie

Don't know about VR being the future, as it is now...hmm don't know if the general public will buy it. Oculus rift is a big thing to put on your head all of the time. I still think it needs some tweaking to be viable enough.

I'm fine with that

So Pachter believes virtual surgery will be bigger than VR gaming. His zero percent correct streak continues.

Well, not really. They said 3D and Sixaxis was a fad too for gaming. And.. they're pretty much gone now.

VR came out back in the late 80's and it could only be used at big arcade centers at the time. They had them at Battletech arcade centers. It was mostly a fad that lasted a few years and then died out. Now VR is back again and a whole lot better. The only way it won't turn out to be another fad is if it's supported with lots and lots of software. Zuckerberg will have to dole out a few more millions to get many developers to support the Oculus Rift. Sony will need to do the same thing. sure they will have some of their 1st party games support the Project Morpheus, but their need 3rd party to support it as well or it will end up like 3D and the Move. Pretty much DEAD.

On this subject, I agree with him.

I see VR being like the difference between gaming with a set of headphones on vs using a full audio set up.

Some people don't want to game with a bunch of shit on their heads.Anything larger than a pair of glasses and I'm really not interested. You can't get comfortable with all of that crap sitting on your head. It's definitely something I couldn't see myself using for more than an hour.

I think vr in its current form is a fad, but will undoubtedly become the standard within a few years.

I don't think virtual reality is going to have any impact on mainstream gaming or media consumption.

"Immersion" is a word that's thrown around all the time and it's usually mixed up with technology, graphics, sound and stuff. I disagree with that. You know what's immersive? Tabletop RPGs, and those don't have graphics or sound, and also have A LOT of metagame talking, jokes, and comments about the "real world" thrown in while the session is still going. After five or six hours of all that stuff that would appear to be the opposite of immersion, you go to bed and dream about the characters, what they said, how they interacted and that one nasty fight that almost got your character killed. Did you know, for example, that, before TV became a mainstream thing, some tech guys were afraid people wouldn't be as "immersed" while watching it as they were in the movies because the screens were not as big and the TV set's surroundings would distract them?

Immersion is a storytelling thing. It's all about the person's imagination. Technology is sweet and it does help, but we got past that point were you couldn't be immersed because the graphics couldn't even come remotely close to resemble what the game was supposed to be displaying SEVERAL generations ago.

Besides, nobody wants to wear that ugly and uncomfortable thing and look THAT nerdy.

Who is Pachter ?

I honestly agree with him. For it to ever really take off and become the norm they're going to have to figure a way around putting a bulky monitor on your face.

Still not as ridiculous as the 3d movement.

I agree. After trying Rift at comic con last year, I know I'll never buy it.

This whole VR talk makes me nostalgic about the time I tried on the head-tracking Sega VR-1 arcade game way back in the 90's. It was really cool and immersive back then, unlike anything else I had seen up until Oculus. However, it always seemed better suited for shorter arcade-like experiences rather than the longer adventures we have on home systems. VR doesn't seem to quite as effective for longer play times.

affordable tech isnt there yet. i think its a fad and will be for awhile....hell, they havent gotten anything useful out of motion gaming other than working out (pointless)

Wow, just wow :-D

Fanboys use his predictions when it fits their argument. There were a ton of Pachter threads before the newest consoles dropped.

"...people aren’t going to develop for it unless there’s a large install base, and it’s too much of a niche for a large install base to ever show up without software..."

Well, he has a point. People aren't going to pick it up without a good amount of software support. And developers aren't going to start developing for it unless there's a large userbase. And if this stuff is pricey it'll just be more niche. It might not be a huge hit right away, but if there's enough of a market to propel it to new and cheaper and better hardware over time, it could lead to more mass adoption over time. I just don't expect phenomenal appeal right away.

Yeah, I think that VR will ultimately end up being a fad. But unlike the motion gaming fad, it'll find a hardcore niche.

Pachter is right this time.

The rule of thumb for reading anything Patcher has to say:

The opposite of what he says is true.

So VR gaming is going to be huge. Better get some stock in Oculus Rift.

The future of gaming is creating a livable virtual reality (through the direct stimulation of the senses)... not sitting in front of a separate television screen.

I think it's going to be a think, but nothing more than an add on like Motion gaming and Kinect.

I'm with Pachter on this one. Vr has been attempted numerous times since the 90s. It'll catch on briefly, then die.

All I know is I want VR for Star Citizen. Everything after that is bonus.

As a sim gamer that uses TrackIR, I think VR has the potential to be huge in the proper genres. Head tracking is immensely useful in DCS sims but I wouldn't necessarily say it adds a greater sense of immersion. But as the Rift/Morpheus are completely covering the field of view I think it's going to elevate it to a completely different level. Being IN the cockpit as if you were there with headphones and surround sound is going to be great. I'm very excited for VR as decent enough tech to do it justice at an affordable price-point is at reach. I can't wait to be flying through an asteroid field in SC, looking up, left, and right to see them flying by. Dogfights are going to be incredible.

I don't think VR will ever acheive deep market penetration, but it will have a large enough base in gaming to justify investment from developers. And Patcher's wrong.....a fad is defined by mass consumption and later abandonment. VR's not going to be widely bought by tons of people. I could see the sim community adopting it, and FPSes.

Help me out here, and please tell me this is thick with sarcasm.