Is 2016 too early for the NX?

I think most of us agree that late 2016 is most likely going to be the launch of the NX and was wondering if you think its too soon? Why not just wait until 2018 to release the NX when that is most likely around the time Sony and Microsoft will announce and or release their next-gen consoles? Does anyone else think that Nintendo releasing this early will possibly put them in another Wii U situation, or will they release a future proof product this time around?

It's almost too late.

Yep pretty much. If Nintendo does it right they'll blow the competition out. But Xbox One and PS4 do have a 2 year jump from this system.

It's too late if they are trying to join gen 8 - they need to make something that blows those others out of the water. If they release a system that is only on par, or even just slightly better than, PS4 - they would be making the same grave mistake they made with Wii-U IMO.

If the timing is wrong for them to be able to do that, then indeed they are "too early" to release the NX. They should wait a year and make sure it actually does blow away the PS4/XB1. Honestly that shouldn't really be necessary, the hardware is already available... it's just a matter of them using it. Unfortunately, I suspect Nintendo will set the bar low as they have done with their last two systems.

As if the Wii U can survive until 2018.

@2Chalupas: I don't think it's actually too late. This is the same thing as Nintendo releasing "Wii HD" had they actually done so back in 2007-8.

If NX comes out in 2016 it has a good chance of getting the Next Call of Duty, the Next Final Fantasy, the Next Dragon Quest, the Next Assassin's Creed, the Next Far Cry, the Next Big 3rd Party offerings that will come out in the future.

2015 was the first year that The "Next Gen Consoles" (IE: Xbox One and PS4) actually felt like Next Gen Products and not a "Me Too" of previous gen. So it's not like the NX would be missing much. What Nintendo needs to do to get People on board is pretty much not give weak 1st Party offerings like what Microsoft did with Xbox One, or what Sony did with PS4, or even What they themselves did with the WiiU.

They Need to put out a game like Zelda or Smash or Mario Maker up there right from the get go to entice Gamers and the General Public to buy this system.

Depends on how they position this console. Is it just to catch up with the PS4/XB1, or is Nintendo gonna try to leap frog them?

The Wii U doesn't necessarily need to survive until 2018 for Nintendo to make money. They have mobile, 3DS and Amiibos to keep them afloat.

Nintendo must really be confident in the NX to release it mid gen.

It'll be a half step between those two options, which is why this might be too late.

So Wii U Mark. ll?

They gotta release it now so we can get Dragon Quest XI, Dues Ex, FF7/XV, Far Cry Primal, XCOM 2, Persona 5, Mass Effect 4 and Dark Souls 3. Ill be too bust playing Nintendo games, but i wouldnt mind playing a couple third party games in between. Madden would be fun, but i get bored usually and jump to NBA2K.

I bet you it will be announced this year and then released in 2017

Surviving is used in terms of becoming obsolete rather than from a financial p.o.v. The Wii U is on the verge of oblivion right now. In two more years?

Using your own comments, if the NX released in 2018, Nintendo would still have a home console on the market that would be completely outclassed and w/o much demand. By this time I would also hope for a new and improved hand held.

It will be released this year if the rumors are true of production starting in Q1 - Q2 of this year.

It just feels like Nintendo is out of the rhythm and whatever they do is just kind of wrong atm. I mean those who are interested in third party games for this gen will go for a Ps4/X1 anyway. Doesn't matter if NX will be slightly more powerful. The player base is allready so large on Ps4/X1 that new players will gravitate towards them.

I think we will see Japan getting the handheld first and then we get the home console. Nintendo sees the declining interest of dedicated home consoles in Japan, so they probably won't release the NX Home Console SKU there unless the demand calls for it.

@emgesp: A bit better- Wii U was barely better than the X360/PS3, I think NX will be a fair bit better than PS4 and XB1, but not enough.

I actually think they will continue to go for PC, i mean just look at the games and support they have, its amazing. PC and NX will make an epic combo. And it will all be FREE, freedom baby, true freedom. Apple gaming console can come play too, i like their plans.

ewwwww. i-ouya in the making

@shalashaska_: Its easy though, you can take all your phone games your have and play them on the big screen if your want for free. It will also use motion controls using a remote like device, which means NX might can share some motion third party game support.

Im praying Nintendo will do the same, allow people to play their handheld games on the TV for free without having to buy another copy of the game. Or buying one copy of Kirby Squeak Squad and playing it on both devices without being charged for each copy.

@mesome713: I dont think NX is going to want apple's mobile games... They will hopefully get AAA third party support with the NX and make it a true console to be contended with

@shalashaska_: I just mean like Indie games, like we get from PC already. I dont think Apple will be getting AAA third party, or not much that is. Maybe they get Lego games, or third party support like Wii U gets.

Too soon, the current console owners will have a more expansive library and community. If Nintendo doesn't have all their big first party franchises lined up for steady releases at and within the first year after launch, it will fail because games and it's library are the key to gaming success. Having a Mario game and then waiting 3 + yrs for another or sporadic and tentative launches of their other well known IP's leaves little reason to invest in yet another console other than hope for future titles. 3rd parties will still target their game designs on the current consoles so they likely won't implement the full hardware power of the NX for a while anyway and at this point it's questionable how many 3rd parties they'll be able to secure for first year launches.

I think for a 2016 launch, they need to hit the market hard and heavy with several of their best IP's ready at launch and promises of yearly launches like what Ubisoft does. Since their first party titles are what make the system, gamers don't want to wait to the end of the system's life cycle for a sequel. The Wii and the Wii U launch titles relied heavily on 3rd parties which won't work for a 2016 release since all those will very likely be on the Xbox and PS4 as well.

It also wouldn't hurt to harken back to the old NES days by giving a free game with the system. Perhaps a New SMB's sequel and some other toss in game would certainly delight potential system buyers. Or even an HD remake of an older SMB's game would suffice. Perhaps do the same with a Zelda system version as well...so you can cater to hardcore fans as to which pack in system they can choose.

It's releasing too late. They should have released this last year. At this point they're playing catch-up and that didn't work with the Wii U, and there is no reason to think it will work now.

Also, it's highly unlikely we'll see the NX grossly outclass the current systems. It'll be better but only marginally. The last time, if memory serves correct, Nintendo did so is with the N64, and that was when they were the leading the industry. Even then, they didn't do as well as many expected. Nintendo is a profit machine, they will not release something too expensive for the consumer, which limits how much more powerful this machine will be over the current systems.

Also, they like to keep the TDP very low in their consoles so that will limit the performance as well. I can't see Nintendo releasing a console that consumes 150 watts like the PS4.

2016 is now or never for the NX. WiiU is a sinking ship, why wait?

You want to see WiiU until 2018-2019? PS4/Xbone are having a hard time and those are 5x more powerful...

No, seemed they pulled the plug on the Wii U at the tail-end of 2014 and we going to spend two years coasting to the finish line, so possibly having a 2016 NX release date would be very welcome.

Nintendo is in a tough situation. The Wii U has bombed with 10.9 million in just over 3 years, All of Wii U third party support is all gone. A great as Nintendo's first party games are, Nintendo just cannot support a console just by themselves. Nintendo is arguably the greatest creator of videogame software, But when it comes to designing Hardware Nintendo missed the mark.

So Nintendo has the Nintendo NX waiting in the wings, It is already begun manufacturing with a possible November 2016 release, Nintendo had hoped for 20 million NX consoles to be ready at launch, Now they hope to have 15 million NX machines for Launch. Which means if Nintendo NX sells out at launch then Nintendo will vault past the entire Wii U lifespan which will end up at 4 years.

Microsoft Xbox had a 4 years lifespan and MS was able to find success with the Xbox 360, So Nintendo looks to pull a Microsoft. If NX is a huge hit all will be forgiven and Nintendo will return to greatness. But if NX does not live up to it's promise. Then Nintendo will be up Zhit creek with out a paddle and a hole in the canoe. The big N will be stuck with a stop gap Machine that will be not future proofed when the 9th Generation of Videogame consoles begins.

So Nintendo NX has to be good. Since Nintendo could be headed for Extinction. Microsoft is to large to fail, But Nintendo is not. So Nintendo has to be careful when pulling a Microsoft and doing a 4 year lifespan on a console.

@2Chalupas: in a console perspective the hardware to blow the ps4/xb1 out of the water is not currently available. On the AMD side the only gpu that is more capable than the ps4's pitcarin that would fit into the power requirements of a console would be a tonga chip(r9 380x). And that chip is basically the same bump in performance as ps4 is above xb1. On the Nvidia side the gtx 970 and 980 would fit the power envelope of a console, but those cards are $300 and $500. But in terms of performance the 970 is just marginally better than a tonga chip from AMD. I wouldn't even consider the difference between ps4's pitcarin to a 980ti/titan x to be big enough to justify a new gen. The tech just simply isnt there. Later this year with pascal chips from Nvidia and artic islands chips from AMD, we might have a pretty good leap in a chip that could be in a console to make the ps4 and xb1 be outclassed, but then I dont see it.

On the cpu side of things, it would be really easy to outdue the 8core jaguars. A Skylake i3 6100t @ 3.2Ghz murders the jaguars and it only draws 35watts. Its only a dual core with hyperthreading. But that would be a good part to pair with either a 970 or 980 right now in a console.

Nintendo will most likely go with AMD because thats what all the rumors dictate. If it does launch in 2016, I dont see any artic islands chip being a possibility, unless Nintendo wants something more powerful than a tonga chip that would fit into their tdp. And in that scenario, nintendo would have to be important enough to AMD to allocate millions of their brand new artic island chips to nintendo. Cpu-wise, they might go with ibm again and cripple the chances of getting mny multiplats, or they may go with Arm to make cross compatibility with their new handheld easy...or that may be part of the package. If they do go x86/x64 like the ps4/xb1, then itll probably be puma cores which are the new low power cores that replaced jaguar cores. Which are only marginally better than jaguar.

My bet is 8 puma cores in an apu with a tonga chip. This will outperform the ps4 but not by much. And it wouldnt justify a new gen from sony until 2020. Then nintendo could release a successor to the NX in 2021. That would give the NX 5 years. Every Nintendo console has only had a 5 year gen except wii which was 6 and a 2016 release of NX would give the wii u 4 years. All this isnt out of the norm. I dont see ps4's numbers stalling because of the nx. But when/if the nx surpasses the xb1 and if sales of the xb1 stall, we will probably see microsoft jump the gun and release theirs in 2019.

I feel like Nintendo can survive with the Wii U until Q3 of 2017 (releasing NX at that time) with their current software lineup and let the slow burn take its toll. NX, however, is going to enter a vicious marketplace at that time and will likely face new PS/Xbox iterations in 2019/2020. Between balancing software expenses for a system that isn't selling and positioning themselves to be strategically viable, I believe waiting is more detrimental than not. Making a console that can at least achieve some level of parity - even if only for 4 years - is a far better route than to allow Wii U a longer lifeline and allow the NX to be outclassed 2-3 years later by newer devices.

If they had to wait until 2017 to launch to insure an artic islands chip that outperforms tonga at a lower tdp then I could see them waiting until 2017, but as far as timing goes, 2016 needs to be when it releases to keep the NX from going up against ps5 and XB(4). If 2020 is on mark for ps5, then Nintendo should be fine with a 2021 release for the nx successor. Launches arent too great anyway, in 2020 they could have some killer "swansong" releases for the nx that are goin up against launch ps5 games. You have to look at the future roadmap. You cant keep waiting, that would continually cripple future generations for nintendo.

^ This.. It seems as if they're releasing a system that's either on par or slightly more powerful than the PS4. What is the purpose? They'll still struggle with Online (because Nintendo just doesn't "get it"), They'll still struggle with 3rd parties (because Nintendo gamers simply don't buy them on Nintendo platforms), and They'll still have some silly "gimmick" that is the focal point of their new platform. This may be the end of Nintendo in the console arena if they screw this up.

Too late to join this gen, and too early to start the next gen.

Nintendo is in a tough spot no matter what, but I agree with this:

Sounds about right.

If they have a shitload of games releasing at a steady rate, and some very classy titles at launch, they might have a chance. But make people wait for decent games and trickle feed us and they will have no chance. Great must have games, right off the bat...is a necessity.

I will gladly give them my money...but first they need to give me a reason to.

They kinda have to since they abandon Wii U already, when they announce the NX, I am sure they have already move all their future games (intended for Wii U) to NX *contrary to whatever PR* they release.. 2018 would be too late. :P

^ ^ This.

I say either way they are screwed. This is a desperation move for them. The WiiU is pretty much dead and is forcing them to do launch a new console so soon.

PS4's GPU was based from mobile 7970M (20 CU) with about 100 watts. PS4's GPU has 18 active CU with 2 CU for yield issues and AMD Hawaii's 8 ACE units.

E8950/mobile R9-M390X(32 CU) replaced 7970M in the 100 watts segment.

E8950/mobile R9-M390X was built on the same 28 nm process tech as PS4's GPU.

That's not correct. Desktop 970 doesn't have 100 watts TDP. On AMD side with similar TDP as desktop 970 is R9-Fury Nano with 175 watts at 64 CU.

AMD didn't bothered updating Hawaii with Fury Nano's TDP improvements i.e. no Hawaii Nano SKU with 44 CU.

There are two factors with consoles i.e. chip area size and TDP. YOU only factored in TDP.

Btw, 35 watts are no where near tablet ULV level TDP i.e. 15 watts.

PS4's ~150 watts are for the entire system i.e. CPU/NB/SB, GPU and GDDR5 memory chips.

GeForce 970/980 chip size is 398 mm^2 which exceeds PS4's SoC(System-on-Chip) 348 mm^2 chip budget.

Xbox One's SoC chip size budget is 365 mm^2 which is enough to fit two R7-260X/7790 type GPUs i.e. 28 CUs without 32 MB ESRAM.

PS4's SoC allocated about 212 mm^2 for the GPU.

The NX should've been what they put out 2-3 fucking years ago to compete with the PS4/XBone.

The Wii U never should've seen the light of day.

Hardly anyone is going to buy this thing a year or two from now besides NIntendo fanboys. The PS4 and XBone combined will have made their way into the homes of 60+ million people by then. And the vast majority of gamers don't buy multiple consoles during a single given generation.

Nintendo needs to quit kidding themselves and focus on becoming a 3rd party developer while also keying in on the mobile market.

This has N64 timing on it. Not a very good way to make an impact and kind of puts a sour taste in the mouth of people who invested in the Wii eww only to have their system dropped like a bad habit just for Nintendo to release a new one.

How many Nintendo fans are going to drop another 3 to 4 hundred dollars to buy Nintendo's next system after having the one they already invested in dropped mid gen? Wasn't that one of Sega's problems?

The timing is bad, PS4 and x1 are just getting their legs under them are releasing some really awesome titles. That aside, outside of the DELAYED wii eww games that Nintendo shifted to NX most of the games it will get will all be coming to the PS4, a system that already has a large library.

Samsung's 14 nm process technology is a generation jump from TSMC's 28 nm.

Wii U's IGP was build from TSMC's 40 nm process tech, hence a generation behind 28nm based AMD GPUs.

TSMC's 20 nm is a mid-generation jump and both AMD and NVIDIA has skipped TSMC's 20 nm process tech.

AMD focused on second generation 28 nm process tech to improve TDP for some of their GPU SKUs.

After 14 nm process tech (2016 for AMD) is 10 nm process tech (perhaps 2017/2018 for AMD). The improvements between 14 nm and 10 nm are minor. After 10 nm process tech is 7 nm.

GPU designs are being influenced by process technology.

It would be a generation jump from PS4 IF Nintendo specs a NX hardware with PS4's 348 mm^2 chip size and 14 nm process technology.

IF NX used ~150 mm^2 chip area size target with 14 nm process technology, it would not be a generation jump from PS4.

I think they should wait. Not sure it is a good idea to do a mid term console release. But I could be wrong here. I will say that if they release something next year, and it is only on par with the PS4 and Xbox One then this will sink Nintendo for the home console market, and will predict they will end up as a handheld only company.

@ronvalencia: when I was considering nvidia, it would not be in an apu, so chipsize is irrelevant.

In both the ps4 and xb1 the gpu chips are power limited compared to the desktop counterpart and underclocked. That reduces tdp significantly. The fury nano is already power limited and underclocked. Its basically the same principle as with the console gpus but they did it to the furyx. The fury nano doesnt have the wiggle room that other gpus in that power segment have.

You mentioned 35watts of the i3 to be too much, but you fail to realize that 1 quad core jaguar is 15 tdp not 2. The apu has 2 quad core jaguar components in ot, so there is no way both of them pull 15 watts combine...more like 30, which is very close to the skylake i3, so there is no reason to chose puma cores over a skylake i3 if you are building something for gaming.

Nintendo is a joke for only supporting their system for 3 years.

**** 'em.

No, the Wiiu was hot garbage and the PS4/X1 are leaving it it their rear view mirror. Nintendo better release it this year and hopes the what 30-40 million X1/PS4 owners decide to buy another console. I'm not a pessimist, but I really think the Wii was a fluke and it appealed to non gamers, like my bother who ought it for Wii Sports. He wont buy Wiiu or NX and for that matter he hasn't bought any consoles from MS/Sony. In my opinion that situation covered a good portion of Wii sales. It appealed to people ho normally dont buy video games. I dont think the NX will appeal to them, even if its some hybrid handheld/console.

Nintendo needs to move units and provide adequate hardware so 3rd part developers dont pass on them like they have on Wiiu.

Agree, except for the last words as I have outgrown using those. But they should support it longer than they appear to be doing.

The only way I see this working out, besides having impressive hardware, is by porting over the Wii U games that made it, and having them ready at launch. Even launching with a "Smash 4: Complete Edition" with all the DLC would be a great boon for the system. If they don't have anything to show at launch, and/or if the system's hardware is unimpressive, this system is dead on arrival.

I think marketing for the Wii U is to blame for a fair portion of Wii U's failure. If they had named the console something clearer, like the WII (Wii 2), or marketed it more clearly as a new system rather than an add-on for the Wii, more people certainly would've bought it. Would it have saved the system? Probably not, but it would've been helpful. I just hope to dear God that the next system moves away from the "Wii" name altogether.

I love Nintendo to death, but they shoot themselves in the foot with half of the crap they do.