How long will it take the Xbox One to outsell Wii U?

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#1 Edited by charizard1605 (55352 posts) -

Okay, so before we proceed, here are the current worldwide sales figures and standings:

  • Wii U: 5.9 million units
  • PlayStation 4: 5.3 million
  • Xbox One: 3.8 million

Now, if you have been following the industry, and if you have any feel for trends, you know the PS4 will eventually outsell the Wii U. I expect it to happen by March end, honestly.

But what about the Xbox One? With its sales having fallen off a similar cliff as the Wii U's did after it had a similarly successful launch, when can we expect it to outsell the Wii U's lifetime sales?

Note that I am not saying the Xbox One won't outsell the Wii U eventually.I know it will, sheer force of its third party support will ensure that. But I am asking when exactly will it happen? When do you expect it to happen by at the earliest?

*One minor disclaimer, the Wii U and Xbox One numbers are both as of December 31, 2013; the PlayStation 4 numbers are as of February 8, 2014. So keep that in mind as you extrapolate numbers.

#2 Posted by _Matt_ (8836 posts) -

I reckon it will have joint numbers or just overtaken the Wii U by end of April.

#3 Posted by Telekill (4325 posts) -

Yeah, I think PS4 will have overtaken WiiU by the end of March as you predicted OP.

As for X1, I'll say probably shortly after E3, maybe July by the latest. I'm sure some E3 announcements will boost sales.

#4 Edited by charizard1605 (55352 posts) -

@Telekill said:

Yeah, I think PS4 will have overtaken WiiU by the end of March as you predicted OP.

As for X1, I'll say probably shortly after E3, maybe July by the latest. I'm sure some E3 announcements will boost sales.

I mean, if we want to assume E3 announcements will do that, then we have to remember, Nintendo will probably have some big stuff at E3 too. For instance, what if they were to announce the next Zelda game?

Plus you are ignoring the Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros. factor as well.

#5 Posted by CrownKingArthur (4061 posts) -

in terms of the actual overtake, i suspect it would happen before or around christmas 2014.

and in terms of the dust settling, and being able to better assess how these consoles went, i'm waiting until around christmas 2015.

#6 Edited by Desmonic (13180 posts) -

@charizard1605: All Ninty needed was Cranky Kong lol Already made the top 10 software sales in the UK. Something even Mario failed to do :P Dat Cranky powah!

#7 Posted by tyloss (829 posts) -

Do you mean outship?

Because that 3.8 million isn't sold.

#8 Edited by Heil68 (43186 posts) -

Easily by Summer.

#9 Posted by charizard1605 (55352 posts) -
@tyloss said:

Do you mean outship?

Because that 3.8 million isn't sold.

So are the Wii U numbers, so it doesn't matter.

Shipment numbers are what we get, so we have to work with what we have.

#10 Edited by ninjapirate2000 (2998 posts) -

Probably by christmas 2014, unless the Wii U has a huge turn around.

#11 Posted by PurpleMan5000 (6828 posts) -

Probably by holiday 2015

#12 Edited by tyloss (829 posts) -

@charizard1605: by we, do you mean this Those two consoles in particular.

iirc PS4 #'s are sold. If there manufacturing 1 million a month, it's shipped numbers probably passed it by now or the following week/2.

As for the Xbox One, who knows Nintendo has big software coming up, kids eat that shit up. So maybe by end of year the Xbox One will surpass it.

#13 Edited by Allicrombie (25114 posts) -

@tyloss said:

@charizard1605: by we, do you mean this Those two consoles in particular.

iirc PS4 #'s are sold. If there manufacturing 1 million a month, it's shipped numbers probably passed it by now or the following week/2.

As for the Xbox One, who knows Nintendo has big software coming up, kids eat that shit up. So maybe by end of year the Xbox One will surpass it.

kids love stuff like Titanfall too. =P

#14 Posted by PurpleMan5000 (6828 posts) -

@tyloss said:

@charizard1605: by we, do you mean this Those two consoles in particular.

iirc PS4 #'s are sold. If there manufacturing 1 million a month, it's shipped numbers probably passed it by now or the following week/2.

As for the Xbox One, who knows Nintendo has big software coming up, kids eat that shit up. So maybe by end of year the Xbox One will surpass it.

When consoles don't sell, they stop getting shipped, so the distinction quickly becomes irrelevant beyond the launch window.

#15 Edited by locopatho (20112 posts) -

By Christmas I think Xbox will be a million or more ahead of WiiU and PS4 will be as far ahead as Sony's production lines can make it.

#16 Edited by charizard1605 (55352 posts) -

@tyloss said:

@charizard1605: by we, do you mean this Those two consoles in particular.

iirc PS4 #'s are sold. If there manufacturing 1 million a month, it's shipped numbers probably passed it by now or the following week/2.

As for the Xbox One, who knows Nintendo has big software coming up, kids eat that shit up. So maybe by end of year the Xbox One will surpass it.

Sony is the exception not the rule

More importantly, if the shipped consoles don't sell, then their shipments fall for the next quarter, so the distinction is holistically meaningless.

Probably by christmas 2014, unless the Wii U has a huge turn around.

Christmas 2014 sounds like a meaningful bet. I mean, there is only so much Mario Kart and Smash will do.

#17 Posted by glez13 (8559 posts) -

I expect XBONE sales to bounce back once more third party games get released which is something the WiiU doesn't have. So probably by the holiday season it should be done.

#18 Posted by k2theswiss (16598 posts) -

xbox has or is about surpass wii u sells in in NA. about month ago wii u had about 2.9 while x1 was at 2.4

#19 Posted by Telekill (4325 posts) -

@charizard1605: I actually was factoring those in. I don't think the tried and true Nintendo IPs are a huge crowd drawing group anymore. They are still fun, but it's my opinion they won't sell as many units as they used too.

#20 Edited by slimdogmilionar (431 posts) -

@ Eventually it will seeing as how wiiU sales have come to a slow crawl. I expect Microsoft to do pretty good with the one, despite being behind in hardware sales xbox lead in software sales last month 47% of all software sales came from xbox. With the price drop M$ has going on right now they could actually move a lot of units with Titanfall release, deal is $470 for xbox and Titanfall.

#21 Edited by Shewgenja (8301 posts) -

PS4 has already outsold WiiU. Quote me.

#22 Posted by Tlgersuperman (87 posts) -

Charzard those are shipped Wii u numbers, if I am not mistaken both consoles already passes base Wii U sales.

#23 Edited by I_can_haz (6551 posts) -

Xbone hasn't sold 3.8 million though, that's shipped. 3 million Xbones sold by December. They sold about 129k in January according to NPD and there's no way they sold 5 times that in Europe so the number is more like 3.2-3.3 million by now for total Xbones sold to customers.

To answer the OP, Xbone won't outsell WiiU till Fall-Winter. PS4 has probably outsold WiiU by now though considering Japan and Europe.

#24 Posted by Tlgersuperman (87 posts) -

Xbone hasn't sold 3.8 million though, that's shipped. 3 million Xbones sold by December. They sold about 129k in January according to NPD and there's no way they sold 5 times that in Europe so the number is more like 3.2-3.3 million by now for total Xbones sold to customers.

To answer the OP, Xbone won't outsell WiiU till Fall-Winter. PS4 has probably outsold WiiU by now though considering Japan and Europe.

The Xbox sold 3.6 million shipped 3.9. Wii U shipped over 5 million sold less than 3.5. In what world is the Wii u not in third place?

#25 Posted by Tlgersuperman (87 posts) -

PS4 has already outsold WiiU. Quote me.

Of course it those, that 5+ million is shipped wii u consoles. other sources have it at around 3.4 or X sold.

#26 Edited by super600 (30110 posts) -

@tlgersuperman said:

@I_can_haz said:

Xbone hasn't sold 3.8 million though, that's shipped. 3 million Xbones sold by December. They sold about 129k in January according to NPD and there's no way they sold 5 times that in Europe so the number is more like 3.2-3.3 million by now for total Xbones sold to customers.

To answer the OP, Xbone won't outsell WiiU till Fall-Winter. PS4 has probably outsold WiiU by now though considering Japan and Europe.

The Xbox sold 3.6 million shipped 3.9. Wii U shipped over 5 million sold less than 3.5. In what world is the Wii u not in third place?

I read smewhere that the WiiU actually sold around 4.9 million,but that number may be wrong and it's really hard usually to determine the amount of consoles sold unless the company that produced the product tells you the number sold. I think it was from the analyst firm that patcher works at.Now I just need to find the link for that.Just use the shipped numbers for now,

#27 Edited by charizard1605 (55352 posts) -

Charzard those are shipped Wii u numbers, if I am not mistaken both consoles already passes base Wii U sales.

We only have shipment numbers for all three consoles, the difference is for PS4 the shipment and sell through numbers are one and the same thanks to the PS4's rate of sales right now.

Wii U currently does lead the next gen sales war, but it's more a matter of technicality than anything else.

#28 Posted by Tlgersuperman (87 posts) -

@tlgersuperman said:

Charzard those are shipped Wii u numbers, if I am not mistaken both consoles already passes base Wii U sales.

We only have shipment numbers for all three consoles, the difference is for PS4 the shipment and sell through numbers are one and the same thanks to the PS4's rate of sales right now.

Wii U currently does lead the next gen sales war, but it's more a matter of technicality than anything else.

Close to one and the same.

The 3.2 million rumored Wii U sales were 3 weeks before the Wii U announcement when you look back at news articles from around that time. People did all kinds of math on it.

But i suppose I'll let it slide for now. Makes the Wii u look good, and will give it more sales, well, not sales, but, you see, uh, well It will make third parties think they should support that system more, oh that's not it either, what to say.

Oh of course, it will make 3DS sales better, there we go.

#29 Posted by Bukowski81 (242 posts) -

Why people still act like the X One is selling alot??

Its struggling bad, It is doing very poory in Europe, we all know what will happen in Japan and in the US is only decent.

Of course it is selling more then the Wii U, whose numbers are really really bad, but its not selling that much better than it will outsold its lifetime sales in a few months, It will take a while.

#30 Edited by cainetao11 (16473 posts) -

@Telekill said:

Yeah, I think PS4 will have overtaken WiiU by the end of March as you predicted OP.

As for X1, I'll say probably shortly after E3, maybe July by the latest. I'm sure some E3 announcements will boost sales.

I mean, if we want to assume E3 announcements will do that, then we have to remember, Nintendo will probably have some big stuff at E3 too. For instance, what if they were to announce the next Zelda game?

Plus you are ignoring the Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros. factor as well.

Understood, but I don't see those moving consoles to the mass consumer like Titanfall, Destiny, new COD by end of year. By july, WiiU is in third is my pic.

#31 Posted by jg4xchamp (47012 posts) -

Probably a little bit after this holiday season.

#32 Edited by Big_Pecks (5230 posts) -

The Xbone is getting the first price cut, so soon.

#33 Posted by charizard1605 (55352 posts) -

@charizard1605 said:

@Telekill said:

Yeah, I think PS4 will have overtaken WiiU by the end of March as you predicted OP.

As for X1, I'll say probably shortly after E3, maybe July by the latest. I'm sure some E3 announcements will boost sales.

I mean, if we want to assume E3 announcements will do that, then we have to remember, Nintendo will probably have some big stuff at E3 too. For instance, what if they were to announce the next Zelda game?

Plus you are ignoring the Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros. factor as well.

Understood, but I don't see those moving consoles to the mass consumer like Titanfall, Destiny, new COD by end of year. By july, WiiU is in third is my pic.

Also sounds like a reasonable assessment.

I just have one thing to say, I think you might be lowballing how much Mario Kart and Smash Bros will sell.

Then again, it might just be me hightailing it. We'll find out soon enough.

#34 Edited by mariokart64fan (19348 posts) -

what if mariokart comes out and wiiu sky rockets, then what would you say also lets not forget its still early you watch by the end of the gen x1 will be last like the 360

#35 Posted by Couth_ (9973 posts) -

@_Matt_ said:

I reckon it will have joint numbers or just overtaken the Wii U by end of April.

This. Titanfall is gonna move megatonnes

#36 Edited by big_mak523 (68 posts) -

I honestly think it'll be the PS2 era all over again. Less like a first, second, and third, and more like a First, last, and last...

The PS4 will dominate this gen, and because Mario Kart and Smash Brothers exist, I think it will be close between the Xbox One and the Wii U with the Xbox edging it out... So to answer the original question I think itll be awhile before it actually outsells Wii U