ME3, Uncharted 3, GeoW3, etc. don't have a shot. They're all going to be incredible but they're nothing new. They're simply refinements on on already established formulas.
No sequels (save for sequels to games from the prior gen) have won Game of the Year here at Gamespot this gen. 2006 was Gears which essentially revolutionized a genre. 2007 was Super Mario Galaxy, this one speaks for itself. 2008 was Metal Gear Solid IV, a sequel yes, but to a last gen game. It upped the ante on all fronts. 2009 was Demons Souls, even over Uncharted 2 which scored higher. 2010 was RDR, essentially a sequel only in name and to a last gen game. It won over SMG2, an AAAA.
Gamespot looks for unique new features and worlds, though you'll find this is true on many other sites. A sequel in a franchise that has already been established at some point this gen won't win, guarantee it. That being said, I'd say L.A. Noire has the best shot as of right now. Game looks to blend open world gaming, storytelling, and story altering decision making in a marvelous way. Easily the most unique game I've seen thus far.
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