Conventional wisdom in the gaming community says that Sony is still riding high on a massive wave of goodwill garnered by maintaining the status quo on used games at E3, and the PS4 is only bolstered by coming in a full $100 cheaper than the Xbox One. One analyst, however, disagrees. Baird’s Colin Sebastian expects the Xbox One to outship the PS4 within the launch window, if only slightly.
“While many forecasts still give an edge to Sony/PS4 in North America sales, we continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window,” Sebastian told investors, according to Games industry International.
Sebastian expects both consoles to move between 5-6 million units, but expects the Xbox One to edge out within that range. He cites the fact that while both consoles are seeing healthy price margins on Ebay, Xbox One’s are averaging a 60 percent increase over retail prices, whereas the PS4 averages 50. That’s even more noteworthy because the Xbox One is more expensive to begin with.
Considering the aforementioned Ebay markups, I’d expect this initial phase of the console race to come down to one thing and one thing only: manufacturing. Demand is already outstripping supply by a good margin, so both Sony and Microsoft should be able to move a majority of the consoles they’ve made by the time Christmas rolls around. Whoever makes more consoles, sells more consoles in this case, even with the $100 price difference. I can’t see many holiday shoppers drawing a big distinction between the two.
I don’t expect the launch window to really tell us anything about the long-term viability of either of these consoles, much less which one will end up more popular. These pre-orders and initial sales are being dominated by the core gamers who were going to buy one no matter what, and the real test will be whether or not the Xbox One or PS4 will become established enough to sell to people who won’t buy new hardware by default. No must-buy next-gen exclusives are on the horizon yet, and that will be what ultimately drives mass adoption.
So basically in the real wolrd these two consoles are even despite their horrible launches. But also that Pre-orders don't matter and that these business people are looking at the big picture Sony and MS fans, so why don't we all also look at the big picture?