Forbes: X1 will outsell PS4 at launch slightly.

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#1 Posted by Jakandsigz (4512 posts) -

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2013/10/28/analyst-expects-xbox-one-to-outship-ps4/?partner=yahootix

and quote:

Conventional wisdom in the gaming community says that Sony is still riding high on a massive wave of goodwill garnered by maintaining the status quo on used games at E3, and the PS4 is only bolstered by coming in a full $100 cheaper than the Xbox One. One analyst, however, disagrees. Baird’s Colin Sebastian expects the Xbox One to outship the PS4 within the launch window, if only slightly.

“While many forecasts still give an edge to Sony/PS4 in North America sales, we continue to expect similar or even slightly higher sales of Xbox One by the end of the launch window,” Sebastian told investors, according to Games industry International.

Sebastian expects both consoles to move between 5-6 million units, but expects the Xbox One to edge out within that range. He cites the fact that while both consoles are seeing healthy price margins on Ebay, Xbox One’s are averaging a 60 percent increase over retail prices, whereas the PS4 averages 50. That’s even more noteworthy because the Xbox One is more expensive to begin with.

Considering the aforementioned Ebay markups, I’d expect this initial phase of the console race to come down to one thing and one thing only: manufacturing. Demand is already outstripping supply by a good margin, so both Sony and Microsoft should be able to move a majority of the consoles they’ve made by the time Christmas rolls around. Whoever makes more consoles, sells more consoles in this case, even with the $100 price difference. I can’t see many holiday shoppers drawing a big distinction between the two.

I don’t expect the launch window to really tell us anything about the long-term viability of either of these consoles, much less which one will end up more popular. These pre-orders and initial sales are being dominated by the core gamers who were going to buy one no matter what, and the real test will be whether or not the Xbox One or PS4 will become established enough to sell to people who won’t buy new hardware by default. No must-buy next-gen exclusives are on the horizon yet, and that will be what ultimately drives mass adoption.

So basically in the real wolrd these two consoles are even despite their horrible launches. But also that Pre-orders don't matter and that these business people are looking at the big picture Sony and MS fans, so why don't we all also look at the big picture?

#3 Posted by ManInFlames-77 (291 posts) -

You realize this is just some random blogger, right?

#4 Posted by KellyKelly (377 posts) -

LOL, no way in hell sorry

32 countries vs 13 countries, and in those 13 countries PS4 is far more popular as well

#5 Posted by Jakandsigz (4512 posts) -

@maninflames-77 said:

You realize this is just some random blogger, right?

What does that have to do with the Source being from Forbes? I always do it this way how it it confusing. It does not say "forbes says."

#6 Posted by LJS9502_basic (151504 posts) -

Sorry the math doesn't add up. MS isn't launching in as many countries.

#7 Posted by dreamdude (4615 posts) -

Why is everybody so focused on the launch? Let's just wait three years to see who's ahead.

But I suppose system wars would loss a topic to talk about.

#8 Posted by kingoflife9 (1987 posts) -

Forbes contributor. AKA random blogger paid by MS so investors don't dump all their stock.

It pains me how little people know.

#9 Edited by Jakandsigz (4512 posts) -

@LJS9502_basic said:

Sorry the math doesn't add up. MS isn't launching in as many countries.

Your second sentence is way too stupid to be believed. But either way, that's just what's reported go with it or disagree.

#10 Edited by danabo (2474 posts) -

"I’d expect this initial phase of the console race to come down to one thing and one thing only: manufacturing. Demand is already outstripping supply by a good margin, so both Sony and Microsoft should be able to move a majority of the consoles they’ve made by the time Christmas rolls around. Whoever makes more consoles, sells more consoles in this case, even with the $100 price difference."

Pretty much.

#11 Posted by MonsieurX (30484 posts) -

@kingoflife9 said:

Forbes contributor. AKA random blogger paid by MS so investors don't dump all their stock.

It pains me how little people know.

But all other rumors are usually true

Silly cows

#12 Edited by Nike_Air (18341 posts) -

Makes some sense to me. Just an example of what could happen.

PS4 shipments = 1.5 - NA , 1.5 rest of the world

Xbone shipments = 1.8 - NA , .7 rest of the world

  • PS4 = 3 million
  • Xbone = 2.5 million

It's really up to Sony on how important gaining the NA headlines are for 2013. They could stiff many of the smaller countries Microsoft isn't even releasing in I suppose , but know knows.

#13 Edited by I_can_haz (6551 posts) -

Dat damage control. In his rush to DC the latest negative XBone rumors OP didn't notice his article was from a Forbes contributor and not actually a statement from Forbes themselves.

#14 Posted by LJS9502_basic (151504 posts) -

@Nike_Air: Your post makes no sense....

#15 Posted by FoxbatAlpha (7428 posts) -

@kellykelly said:

LOL, no way in hell sorry

32 countries vs 13 countries, and in those 13 countries PS4 is far more popular as well

oH YEAH. the PS4 just has all kinds of fans in Brazil these days. Im not made at you though.

#16 Posted by danabo (2474 posts) -

@LJS9502_basic said:

@Nike_Air: Your post makes no sense....

Because you didn't read the article.

"I’d expect this initial phase of the console race to come down to one thing and one thing only: manufacturing. Demand is already outstripping supply by a good margin, so both Sony and Microsoft should be able to move a majority of the consoles they’ve made by the time Christmas rolls around. Whoever makes more consoles, sells more consoles in this case, even with the $100 price difference."

3 million manufactured = 3 million sold.

1.5 shipped to NA = 1.5 million sold to NA

1.5 shipped "elsewhere" = 1.5 sold "elsewhere"

The amount of territories you release in makes no difference. It's purely the amount they can manufacture. Shipping to the markets they expect to sell the most consoles in, i.e UK & NA = headlines.

#17 Edited by TruthArisen (385 posts) -

Wonder Woman shakes her head, chuckling to herself. "You men and your silly Forbes blog posts."

#18 Posted by Vatusus (4699 posts) -

In america? Probably

In the rest of the world? lol no chance in Hell

#19 Posted by wolverine4262 (19397 posts) -

They are both going to sell out at launch. All that matters is who can manufacture them faster at this point.

#20 Edited by SonofK (1066 posts) -

Probably just talking about NA which is really the only market MS cares about.

#21 Posted by AmazonTreeBoa (16745 posts) -

lol a blogger said so, so it must be true. *rolls eyes*

#22 Posted by AmazonTreeBoa (16745 posts) -

@Jakandsigz said:

@LJS9502_basic said:

Sorry the math doesn't add up. MS isn't launching in as many countries.

Your second sentence is way too stupid to be believed. But either way, that's just what's reported go with it or disagree.

His second sentence is a fact kid. Wake up.

#23 Posted by jimmypsn (4425 posts) -

Once China and MS has their partnership finalize. Game over in regards to numbers. So I'm not too worried in this front.

#24 Edited by lamprey263 (24232 posts) -

quite simply he's basing this off the supply and demand forcing prices above their retail price and X1 is averaging higher percentage'wise

regardless of supply and demand, I think both will be in enough demand to sell out past the end of the year, with that the advantage goes to who can simply manufacture them quicker

#25 Posted by KarateeeChop (4652 posts) -

damn even forbes is betting against sony. rip ps4.

#26 Edited by Douevenlift_bro (5223 posts) -

Doesn't even add up...less territories/unpopular/higher price = more sales? LMAO. That cloud magic

#27 Posted by navyguy21 (12970 posts) -

@kingoflife9 said:

Forbes contributor. AKA random blogger paid by MS so investors don't dump all their stock.

It pains me how little people know.

LMAO Awesome.

Cow Math:

Random blogger/Site + positive Sony news = True, everybody knows the truth.

Random blogger/Site + negative sony news = False, obviously paid by MS

Random blogger/Site + positive Microsoft news = FALSE!!!!!!

Random blogger/Site + negative Microsoft news = HOLY GRAIL!!!

I love Math :)

#28 Posted by SonofK (1066 posts) -

@navyguy21 said:

@kingoflife9 said:

Forbes contributor. AKA random blogger paid by MS so investors don't dump all their stock.

It pains me how little people know.

LMAO Awesome.

Cow Math:

Random blogger/Site + positive Sony news = True, everybody knows the truth.

Random blogger/Site + negative sony news = False, obviously paid by MS

Random blogger/Site + positive Microsoft news = FALSE!!!!!!

Random blogger/Site + negative Microsoft news = HOLY GRAIL!!!

I love Math :)

Hahahaha they pulled the same crap with Crytek. Crytek says the XB1 and PS4 are similar, cows call BS. Crytek praises the PS4, Cows start to suck their ****

#29 Edited by darkspineslayer (19811 posts) -

Meanwhile, my blog says otherwise.

Since both sources are just as credible, we have a paradox.

Steam machine to sell more.

#30 Posted by princeofshapeir (14277 posts) -

Wii U will outsell both once everyone realizes it's the only one with games worth playing this holiday season

#31 Posted by blackace (20890 posts) -

@maninflames-77 said:

You realize this is just some random blogger, right?

Yup, just like every rumor posted on here about the XB1. All bloggers with their own opinions.

#32 Posted by hippiesanta (9901 posts) -

forbes??? eww .... yuppies

#33 Edited by FragTycoon (6430 posts) -
@blackace said:

@maninflames-77 said:

You realize this is just some random blogger, right?

Yup, just like every rumor posted on here about the XB1. All bloggers with their own opinions.

The difference is most of the rumors we see about XBO is backed by understanding of hardware and leaked info from insiders. It also usually turns out to be true. (like the differences in battlefield)

This, on the other hand, is a blogger who is guessing on sales based on gut feelings.

He basically disregards pre-orders when market trends clearly prove they have merit in projecting long term sales.

Cutting through the coy veil of the blog (that's loosely associated with Forbes) it's clear that it's more what he would like to happen then what all the market info points to.

#34 Posted by handssss (1837 posts) -

@kellykelly said:

LOL, no way in hell sorry

32 countries vs 13 countries, and in those 13 countries PS4 is far more popular as well

the ebay argument is stupid as well. even the ps3 when it launched sold for monsterous prices and quicklty on ebay as so many scalpers targeted it.

#35 Edited by nervmeister (15272 posts) -

@Jakandsigz: I can see this happening only if MS pours an ungodly amount of money and effort into advertising.

#36 Posted by SKaREO (3161 posts) -

This just in, the sky will change color to red when the X1 is launched. Also, it will rain candy and the ocean will be turned into chocolate milk. Take from that what you may.

#37 Edited by Mr-Kutaragi (1967 posts) -

Forbes blogger predict xbone to sell more because ebay price and claims $100 difference is not big, in America. Desperate time for lemming.

#38 Posted by GrenadeLauncher (5155 posts) -

Old.

Also debunked. This has no chance of happening unless you're a mathematically challenged Xbot.

#39 Posted by k2theswiss (16599 posts) -

Cows would blow up and die if that happen

#40 Posted by xxyetixx (1296 posts) -

I am a little curious about the ebay thing though if X1 is seeing a 60% increase in price and PS4 is only seeing 50% especially with X1 being $100 more expensive. That was the only thing that cause my eye! Not only are people ok paying $100 they are paying way more to get their hands on one at launch, why???

#41 Edited by Heil68 (45224 posts) -

Dont care as long as I get my PS4.

#42 Edited by danabo (2474 posts) -

The extra $100+ must be for the superior Xbox One graphics.

#43 Posted by LJS9502_basic (151504 posts) -

@danabo said:

@LJS9502_basic said:

@Nike_Air: Your post makes no sense....

Because you didn't read the article.

"I’d expect this initial phase of the console race to come down to

one thing and one thing only: manufacturing. Demand is already outstripping supply

by a good margin, so both Sony and Microsoft should be able to move a majority of the consoles they’ve made by the time Christmas rolls around. Whoever makes more consoles, sells more consoles in this case, even with the $100 price difference."

3 million manufactured = 3 million sold.

1.5 shipped to NA = 1.5 million sold to NA

1.5 shipped "elsewhere" = 1.5 sold "elsewhere"

The amount of territories you release in makes no difference. It's purely the amount they can manufacture. Shipping to the markets they expect to sell the most consoles in, i.e UK & NA = headlines.

I was talking about your post where you agreed with the topic title but then posted numbers saying the opposite. The fault is yours....not mine.

#44 Posted by AtariKidX (6282 posts) -

Good luck with that.....lol

#45 Edited by StormyJoe (5497 posts) -

@Sweenix said:

Forbes contributor

You idiot.

LOL. Do you know what a "contributor" is in journalistic lingo?

#46 Posted by lamprey263 (24232 posts) -
@Mr-Kutaragi said:

Forbes blogger predict xbone to sell more because ebay price and claims $100 difference is not big, in America. Desperate time for lemming.

he's basing his info of supply and demand claiming because it's going for 60% more on Ebay or whatever that it has higher demand than the PS4 which are selling online for 50% of their retail price; thus he's saying there's more demand based on the prices people are willing to pay

I don't think he's saying one will perform better on the market after launch, he's only focused on launch, in that case $100 would make a difference but at launch it doesn't since the console will be in high demand at the time

#47 Posted by lhughey (4243 posts) -

As the guy above said, I don't know why you are criticizing his method of prediction. It seems more credible than any other source because the guy is basing it on factual numbers and not feeling.

The company that will sell the most this holiday is going to be the company that gave AMD the most lucrative deal. Supply is likely be limited due to splitting resources for the production of these APUs.

#48 Posted by tonitorsi (8481 posts) -

I don't really think so. Even with MS's advertising power, what diminishes their chances of ever getting ahead initially, is the multitude of countries Xbone isn't getting released at..

#49 Edited by BlbecekBobecek (2689 posts) -

So the best case scenario for MS is that it will be a deuce in NA and roflstomp everywhere else, I guess.

#50 Posted by danabo (2474 posts) -

Now we know the Xbox One outperforms the PS4 graphically it may be more like 2:1 in favour of MS.