Feburary NPD Prediction thread (ps4 wins!!!!)

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#1 Edited by ghostwarrior786 (4614 posts) -

its that time of the month again, make your predictions people. i will update the thread with results which are due to be released 13.03.14 at around 18:00 EST

things to take into considerations for feb predictions: ps4 supply has been abysmal due to japan launch and chinese new year which lowered production capacity. feburary usually sees a slight increase in sales compared to jan.

jan npd thread

january 2014 results, u may use this for reference (~ means estimates):

1. ps4 ~ 271 (supply constrained)

2. x1 ~ 143k

3. 3ds ~ 70k

4. Ps3 ~ 53.5k

5. wii u ~ 49k (wii fit u sold ~15k)

6. X360 ~ 48k

7. Wii ~ 20k

8. Ps vita ~ 10k

my prediction is ps4 will win again despite the low stock allocation to us. ps4 sells around 250k and x1 around 150k.

feb 2014 results:

ps4 - 286k

x1 - 258k

3ds ~ 170k

x360 - 114k

ps3 ~ 85k

wii u - 82k

wii ~ 38k

vita ~ 10k

total consoles sales in us:

PS4: ~2.56 million

Wii U: ~2.23 million

Xbone: ~2.22 million

software:

  1. Call of Duty: Ghosts (360, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, Wii U, PC)
  2. The Lego Movie Videogame (360, PS3, 3DS, Wii U, Xbox One, PS4, Vita)
  3. NBA 2K14 (360, PS4, PS3, Xbox One, PC)
  4. Thief (PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3)
  5. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3)
  6. Battlefield 4 PS4, Xbox One, 360, PS3, PC)
  7. Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag (360, PS4, PS3, Xbox One, Wii U, PC)
  8. Lightning Returns: Final Fantasy XIII (PS3, 360)
  9. Minecraft (360)
  10. Bravely Default (3DS)

#2 Edited by kuu2 (7317 posts) -

I will say both consoles sell around 130k. MSoft gets a pack in coming up so it could see a big drop though.

#3 Posted by misterpmedia (3387 posts) -

My prediction is that Sony will still be stomping on MS, despite the upcoming Titanfall. Will gladly eat crow if wrong.

#4 Edited by Kjranu (1005 posts) -

1st PS4, 200k

2nd 3DS 100k

3rd XB One 90k

#5 Posted by Kjranu (1005 posts) -

@misterpmedia said:

My prediction is that Sony will still be stomping on MS, despite the upcoming Titanfall. Will gladly eat crow if wrong.

That's for March predictions, not February.

#6 Posted by finalstar2007 (25182 posts) -

PS4 will dominate.

3DS in second place

Xbox One in last place

#7 Posted by misterpmedia (3387 posts) -

@Kjranu said:

@misterpmedia said:

My prediction is that Sony will still be stomping on MS, despite the upcoming Titanfall. Will gladly eat crow if wrong.

That's for March predictions, not February.

That's why I said 'upcoming'. People can still buy the box knowing Titanfall is coming out next month. For the amount of 'hype' it has I expect a steep increase in xbox sales, but that's not what we'll see.

#8 Edited by ghostwarrior786 (4614 posts) -

@kuu2 said:

I will say both consoles sell around 130k. MSoft gets a pack in coming up so it could see a big drop though.

ps4 has pretty much sold what it allocated and from the numbers we know sony had to split around 400k between europe and us in feb, i think sony will give the lionshare to us to try and take m$ out of the game. after titanfall flops as a system seller (expect no more than 30% increase in sales) i think m$ will drop price again. in the uk, unofficially of course, x1 are available for £350 brand new from retailer which is same price as ps4. thats how much stock retailers have of x1.

#9 Edited by lglz1337 (3728 posts) -

only thing i know is ps4 will stomp the Xbone the F out

#10 Posted by I_can_haz (6551 posts) -

Xbone is gonna get knocked the F out in February and possibly March NPD. Lems are going to go into hiding.

#11 Posted by stereointegrity (10720 posts) -

I predict things will be sold

#12 Posted by -CC- (1893 posts) -

@kuu2 said:
MSoft gets a pack in coming up so it could see a big drop though.

Glad to see what the DC is going to be for this month.

#13 Posted by LanceX2 (305 posts) -

I expect close to same as January but march will be different.

Id like to think 200k for X1 but people probably held out for titanfall bundle

#14 Posted by Desmonic (14036 posts) -

I suppose the numbers shouldn't be much different than January's numbers. If anything they'll all drop a bit. February was a bit of slow month.

#15 Edited by PinkieWinkie (1363 posts) -

Ps4 numbers will drop due to supply being sent to Japan, so ps4 around 190k, xbone 110k, and WiiU, LOL.

#16 Posted by iloveatlus (259 posts) -

Lemmings didn't buy any games January. I hope things are different for feb. I hope lemmings bought Plants Vs Zombies: GWF; it's a really good game and deserves to be on the top 5 NPD software sales.

#17 Posted by Dire_Weasel (16000 posts) -

Playstation 4: 250k

Xbox One: 110k

I have no idea about handhelds or last generation.

Sony continues to sell literally ever console they ship, while the Xbox One is still clogging up the retail channels worldwide. I'm guessing that Sony was able to ship about 250k Playstation 4s into North America in February, so that's what they'll sell.

#18 Posted by Nike_Air (18328 posts) -

I'm thinking Sony probably dropped the ball on manufacturing / shipments. I haven't heard of any stores getting quality shipments like I did in January.

  • PS4 - 170K
  • Xbone - 150k
  • Wii-U - 60k

#19 Edited by mbrockway (3485 posts) -

@finalstar2007 said:

PS4 will dominate.

3DS in second place

Xbox One in last place

Pretty much this. Assuming Sony keeps the PS4's coming (I never see more than one on a shelf, and never for more than a day) its definitely over 200k for February. XBone maybe 100k. Maybe. 3DS probably a little above XBone. Funny enough WiiU seems to be sold out too in the stores near me. Might be a Nintendo surprise for February.

#20 Edited by KratosYOLOSwag (511 posts) -

Xbone will be around the same as it was in Jan. The Quad will see a drop but will still be ahead. lol Wii U

Sony said the PS4 supply will be limited until April.

#21 Posted by clr84651 (5446 posts) -

PS4 outsells X1 again. I don't know what the difference will be.

#22 Posted by Xaero_Gravity (8737 posts) -

1) PS4

2) X1

3) Wii U

Bold predictions I know, but hey, taking risks is a hobby. :cool:

#23 Edited by kuu2 (7317 posts) -

@ghostwarrior786: If Sony is smart they concentrate on Europe where MSoft is weakest. Giving the lions share to the US is not a bad strategy its just not the best in my eyes.

#24 Posted by MisterXMedia (230 posts) -

@kuu2 said:

@ghostwarrior786: If Sony is smart they concentrate on Europe where MSoft is weakest. Giving the lions share to the US is not a bad strategy its just not the best in my eyes.

Dumb post from a lemming.

Xbone is already dead in EU. No one in the EU is going to buy Xbone because PS4s aren't available. The Xbone consistently sells 10k/week regardless of the PS4's availability.

#25 Posted by kuu2 (7317 posts) -

@MisterXMedia: Coming from someone not clever enough to come up with their own screen name that is a compliment. The dumbest comment is the one that says after 4 months of being on the market a product or service is dead.

Keep hope alive Sony Fan keep hope alive.

#26 Posted by MisterXMedia (230 posts) -

@kuu2 said:

@MisterXMedia: Coming from someone not clever enough to come up with their own screen name that is a compliment. The dumbest comment is the one that says after 4 months of being on the market a product or service is dead.

Keep hope alive Sony Fan keep hope alive.

The Xbone is dead. Microsoft doesn't have the guts to do what it takes to save a sinking ship unlike SONY.

If MS wants to save the Xbone, they're going to need to admit XBL is inferior to PSN and offer free multiplayer this gen just like what SONY did last-gen. They're going to need to actually invest in new IPs, which will cost billions in dollars. They're going to have to abandon their target of making a profit this gen and concentrate on saving as much marketshare as possible so they come back strong next-gen. That's what SONY did.

The fact of the matter is, MS is too greedy and myopic to do that. This is why Xbone and, consequently the Xbox division will fail.

#27 Posted by kuu2 (7317 posts) -

@MisterXMedia: "The Xbone is dead. Microsoft doesn't have the guts to do what it takes to save a sinking ship unlike SONY.

If MS wants to save the Xbone, they're going to need to admit XBL is inferior to PSN and offer free multiplayer this gen just like what SONY did last-gen. They're going to need to actually invest in new IPs, which will cost billions in dollars. They're going to have to abandon their target of making a profit this gen and concentrate on saving as much marketshare as possible so they come back strong next-gen. That's what SONY did.

The fact of the matter is, MS is too greedy and myopic to do that. This is why Xbone and, consequently the Xbox division will fail."

You have to be a fakeboy coming with this............... PSN better than Live; hahahahahaha. New IPs; hahahahahahaha. Really this is not a for real post. Cows, one has strayed from the herd and needs serious help.

#28 Posted by MisterXMedia (230 posts) -

@kuu2 said:

@MisterXMedia: "The Xbone is dead. Microsoft doesn't have the guts to do what it takes to save a sinking ship unlike SONY.

If MS wants to save the Xbone, they're going to need to admit XBL is inferior to PSN and offer free multiplayer this gen just like what SONY did last-gen. They're going to need to actually invest in new IPs, which will cost billions in dollars. They're going to have to abandon their target of making a profit this gen and concentrate on saving as much marketshare as possible so they come back strong next-gen. That's what SONY did.

The fact of the matter is, MS is too greedy and myopic to do that. This is why Xbone and, consequently the Xbox division will fail."

You have to be a fakeboy coming with this............... PSN better than Live; hahahahahaha. New IPs; hahahahahahaha. Really this is not a for real post. Cows, one has strayed from the herd and needs serious help.

I'm not a fakeboy. I was a lemming for the most of last-gen. I converted after playing the GOAT The Last of Us.

XBL was better than PSN last-gen. For some reason, DL speeds on PSN were slower than on XBL.

However, the roles are reversed this gen. DL speeds on XBL are even slower than PSN on PS3. Just goes to show you how little MS actually cares about their gaming division. Bet they're running XBL on just 1 of their 300,000 servers. LOL

#29 Posted by nutcrackr (12598 posts) -

surely the xbone couldn't sell less than 100k. That would be disastrous.

xbone 120k. PS4 at about 240.

#30 Posted by StrongBlackVine (8418 posts) -

Major Nelson makes a statement about the Xbox* family and says something about Titanfail to damage control.

#31 Posted by super600 (30644 posts) -

Here are my predictions

XB1:120K(May be less than 100K if the console is unlucky

PS4:200K(May be greater or higher if the PS4 is unlucky or lucky this month

WiiU:60K-80K(Because of Donkey Kong tropical freeze)

3DS:100K

I'm not including the vita in this prediction because we obviously already know it's an even worse failure than the WiiU in the US.

#32 Posted by Boggle_Dragon (109 posts) -

Xbone: 135k

PS4: 225K

I just don't see the Xbone picking up sales until a new Halo releases. If there was a Halo game at launch the bone would have sold much more.

#33 Edited by Sweenix (5399 posts) -

PS4 - 212k

Xbone - 101k

Wii U - 34k

#34 Edited by misterpmedia (3387 posts) -

@StrongBlackVine said:

Major Nelson makes a statement about the Xbox* family and says something about Titanfail to damage control.

10K Titan's dropped in 24hours. Fastest Titan droppage in the history of the game.

#35 Edited by jsmoke03 (12897 posts) -

ps4 selling 2x than the bone isnt going to happen every month lol.

im seeing a 200k ps4 and 160k for xb1.

march is going to be a different story though imo. i think xb1 outsells ps4. i just see titanfall being a bigger hit that resonates to gamers than infamous ss. hell i even bought xboxlive for the first time to play that game on the 360

#36 Edited by Heil68 (44450 posts) -

PS4 keeps rolling at #1, followed by Xbone then WiiU.

#37 Posted by StrongBlackVine (8418 posts) -

@jsmoke03: You could be right, but it would only be a one month jump. I say it won't happen though based on what we've seen so far in March.

#38 Posted by ghostwarrior786 (4614 posts) -

@kuu2 said:

@ghostwarrior786: If Sony is smart they concentrate on Europe where MSoft is weakest. Giving the lions share to the US is not a bad strategy its just not the best in my eyes.

sony have europe on lock, they released a year later and still dominated that region, so i think its pointless to give it the lionshare. the battleground are the 2 regions where x360 beat ps3, uk and us. i think sony should have delayed the japan launch a few months and try to build a lead in us to really hurt m$. even if x1 releases first in japan it wont matter because its going to flop regardless. but obviously sony know something i dont and they have been making the right moves lately

@jsmoke03 said:

ps4 selling 2x than the bone isnt going to happen every month lol.

im seeing a 200k ps4 and 160k for xb1.

march is going to be a different story though imo. i think xb1 outsells ps4. i just see titanfall being a bigger hit that resonates to gamers than infamous ss. hell i even bought xboxlive for the first time to play that game on the 360

titanfall is going to flop as a system seller. the hardware bump will be no bigger than 30%, multiplatform online only game isnt going to have a big an impact as people think

#39 Posted by TheTruthIsREAL (761 posts) -

XB1: 110k

PS4: 220k

Wii U: 50k

#40 Posted by nyzma23 (929 posts) -

ps4 250k

xbox one 175k

#41 Posted by Chutebox (37211 posts) -

PS4 will win by around the same margin as both consoles will drop. PS4 because of JP launch and X1 because lack of interest.

#42 Posted by tyloss (829 posts) -

PS4 dominates.... Again

#43 Edited by TigerSuperman (2355 posts) -

@ghostwarrior786 said:

30%, multiplatform online only game isnt going to have a big an impact as people think

30%? So you think it will move 1.2 million consoles?

#44 Posted by chikenfriedrice (10405 posts) -

It's going to be closer this month

I will say PS4 = 160K and X1= 140K

March NPD will be interesting, we will see how much Titanfall helps the X1.

#45 Edited by ghostwarrior786 (4614 posts) -

@TigerSuperman said:

@ghostwarrior786 said:

30%, multiplatform online only game isnt going to have a big an impact as people think

30%? So you think it will move 1.2 million consoles?

not 30% of total x1 sales, the increase of 30% will be on month to month sales. so if x1 sells 150k in feb in us expect a increase of 45k in march.

#46 Posted by Vatusus (4616 posts) -

I'm just curious to see what was the weight of TitanFall in the Xone sales... or is that just next month?

#47 Posted by Nike_Air (18328 posts) -

Michael Pachter's predictions -

  • [360] 45K
  • [3DS] 105K
  • [PS3] 50K
  • [PS4] 225K
  • [WIU] 47.5K
  • [XB1] 130K

#48 Posted by monson21502 (8066 posts) -

xbox one will be in first in the next few months and probably keep the lead in the usa till next gen

#49 Posted by Chutebox (37211 posts) -

@Vatusus said:

I'm just curious to see what was the weight of TitanFall in the Xone sales... or is that just next month?

Both

#50 Edited by Sweenix (5399 posts) -

@monson21502 said:

xbox one will be in first in the next few months and probably keep the lead in the usa till next gen

lol