I think Microsoft probably will.
Microsoft does have a much larger foothold in china already from things like Windows and Office that everyone knows and uses.
I think the gaming market in China will look a lot different than here. First of all, everyone games on PC and mobile (with tons of piracy). There is a good chance adoption of consoles will be very low.
Second, There is a good chance that the Chinese government will cripple both consoles severely in terms of features. It wouldn't surprise me to see China as the only place in the world that the Xbox One launches without kinect becuase it would be much easier than trying to make it comply with Chinese law.
My guess is that Microsoft and Sony will push the 360/PS3 more in China more than they will the PS4 and Xbox One. I think to break into the Chinese market, they will want something cheaper and more available.
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