difficult to say.
the cost of making such a game now could be 10X or more as what crysis cost to make. crysis cost $22million to make according to dinternet. so looking at 110million or more (probably more...PCs have gotten a crap ton more poweful since then and we are taking about a game that will bring the highest core I7 with titanXs and buckets of ram to its knees).
thats a lot of money for a production budget. thats GTA5 type money...we are not taking anything trivial here. hell by movie budgets thats not small either. that's "ok..we could sink the company of this goes south" money.
to be honest i dont think there is any one platform that could support such a risk. sure..maybe itll hit GTA type success and maybe it will turn out well. or maybe itll tank and a crap ton of money is lost.
crysis did a lot of things to lift the bar. it wasnt just graphics. the scale of the physics system had no equal. nothing, not even HL2, was as interactive as crysis. even the AI was a lot of sophisticated than what we saw (and see) in games. sure it was buggy in places (im sure there are plenty of videos of player exploiting a weakness in the AI) but it was still a big step up.
i think the cost is too high now (the wallet, not the consoles, is the biggest bottleneck in the industry at the moment). i dont think it would make the money back on retail sales alone...or at least the risk is too high. it would probably need to sell (assuming the standard 60 quid release price) around 7-8 million units to break even.
it could, perhaps, pay off in less tangible ways.
if i was EA for example i could use such a game to build my PS5 and X2 tech off of for example. i could essentially release a PS5 game now, before its release, realease it on the PS5 when it is released and i will be further along in R&D for making the best out of next gen hardware. i can then use this tech and knowledge to release next gen multiplats faster and refine the tech as needed rather than using a PS4 engine for the PS5. this has worked for EA this gen. say what you want about the quality of their games but they look absolutely stunning and clearly take advantage of what current hardware can do better than pretty much any other developer. star wars looks better than first party efforts for example.
bugatti (well VW basically) created the bugatti veyron many years ago and they sold the car at a loss. it was a technical exercise..a peeing contest. they spent a fortune on R&D and they sold the car at a loss. on the face of it it made no sense. but it gave the brand a bump in recognition, associated it with quality and excellence and who knows what lessons learned from it were applied elsewhere?
but i dont think any one platform can support that kind of budget really....the risk is just to high. hell even with 3 its high enough that AAA development is creatively dead at the moment.
star citizen is not an example. that money raised is the production budget. in terms of revenue and profit the game has made 0. bupkis. it's not released so of course it hasn't made anything. the sales could also be depressed when it does arrive simply because most people who want it will have already bought it before release. it may never be profitable...it could just be an exercise in constant reinvestment in the game based on revenue generated (which is not a bad business model has to be said) so the balance sheet may still read 0. they have no shareholders and are not publically traded so why not?
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