Analyst: Xbox One Will Overtake PS4 in US by 2015

"This change will be enough to push the Xbox One installed base higher than PS4 in the U.S. and Canada in 2015 rather than 2016. It kind of reminds me of Microsoft's evolution on Windows and IE. The initial design needs some serious help (i.e., last summer's DRM 'Xbox 180') and then improves to point of being a serious contender (this Kinect unbundling) and then vies for market share dominance (although I continue to believe PS4 will have the largest global installed base of any console at the end of 2016)," he explained.

Independent analyst Billy Pidgeon added, "This is a good competitive move for Microsoft. Price is an important factor at this point in the console cycle and in the consumer market, and Kinect lacks strong value for most gamers. Xbox One without Kinect should sell strongly at $399 and could out-perform PS4 at the same price on a month to month basis, although I think market share competition between Xbox One and PS4 will remain tight for most of the cycle."

Furthermore, unbundling the camera gives Microsoft more room to maneuver and stay competitive with Sony. "With two SKUs in the market, Microsoft has reverted to its Xbox 360 strategy. This gives the company some better flexibility with pricing, bundling and product positioning. Microsoft has already described the Xbox One with Kinect as the premium offering," Harding-Rolls noted.

Ultimately, the move sets the stage for an even more heated battle at E3 and the months ahead in 2014. "Sony will need to re-group to maintain its momentum in the market with the E3 press events taking on even more significance for both companies now," Harding-Rolls added.

SOURCE

That might actually just happen, although I do think the US is the only place where the Xbox One will eventually manage to outsell the PS4.

Any prediction pachter makes=Piece of shit

Any other analyst= It may just happen.

It's not Pachter.

In the US? I could see that

Not a chance. They may be the same price but the PS4 is still the better gaming console. Microsoft took the only thing that made the Xbox One unique out of the box. If M$ wanted to gain ground or take the lead they needed to drop the price below $399.

I'm just sayin char. That's all.... :D

I agree xD

Still needs games

I'm leaning toward getting an X1. I can't think of any must have games Sony will have down the line that demand me getting a PS4, except for maybe Persona, and given the history of the Persona games I figure the first Persona game on the PS4 will arrive probably a year after the PS5 launches, so I got time.

Anyhow, the last few weeks the X1 has steadily been outselling the PS4 in North America on a week by week basis, according to "LOL VG Chartz". The PS4 lead in the area isn't that huge, if it continues to outsell the PS4 then the regional totals could possibly be surpassed by the end of next Christmas. Right now the difference is only 350K consoles in North America.

The overall question is does this mean MS has gone back on their "We want the living room" mantra?

Sure the one is more competitive now, but in reality how competitive is it? It was priced at $450 with a free game (The Ones biggest game of the year) no doubt and still didn't outsell the PS4.

So what does everyone think? Does the one start to sell more? Or does it still trail behind the PS4?

@GoldenElementXL: what does ps4 do better or different than xbox1 now that they are same price? If u say it's got better hardware I'd say not enough to make 99% of people who buy consoles notice or care. It will have all the big name games and be the same price.

nope. the bundle deals last month were better. june npd should be good, hopefully lems give it the talk like they did in march, would be good to own them again

Well, to answer the points you raise one by one:

• Nah, I think the overall strategy to make the Xbox One the living room equivalent of the iPad (a media consumption box) still exists, and is part of a larger, future proofed strategy at Microsoft, and they will continue to push for that. Especially given how much money Microsoft is pouring into Xbox Originals, and the fact that Kinect's exclusion really does not affect the living room strategy much, I don't think this indicates much of a larger change.
• It's all about the consumer's psyche, my friend. The 'sub $400' mark is psychologically a good place to be at. Sure, $450 for Xbox One with Titanfall was in fact a better deal than a $399 Xbox One by itself, but it was still over $400, which is psychologically a lot of money to spend in one go- the price drop should see an uptick in sales now, especially given the other, friendlier policy changes Microsoft are implementing (such as the new Xbox Live Gold).

This will not doubt happen to be honest, it's the only place I expect MS to be a head in at some point. MS will market the kinectless and now price matched Xbone like rabid dogs. Still, it would be hilarious for Sony, even after these bombshells, to continue to outsell them by a long shot. June & July NPD should be a riot.

Speaking of NPDs actually, t's going to be a fun day 2moro when NPDs are released, apparently Xbone hasn't done so hot...

So they think Xone won't close a less than 400k gap until the end of the year when the gap had not widened and they just announced a cheap kinect-less version?

Someone needs to explain this. With the bundles bring offered as of late, x1 was actually "che a per" in the US and still got out sold.

Sunset Overdrive Bundle would move consoles I think

All Sony PR would have to do is continue the 1080p "experience (insert game here) in a way that only PS4 can provide" campaign they have used to this point. Multiplats sell better than exclusives on both consoles. So why wouldn't the average consumer buy the console that plays multiplat titles the best?

Sony needs games, they just don't have any and their first party looks dire.

It's all gonna depend on games and marketing. It's gonna be hard to overcome the ps4.

@GoldenElementXL: but they pulled that 1080 from watch dogs and probably other games in future. All the have to say is HD experience or something and that could mean 720p and most people wouldn't care that aren't on internet message boards.

All I am saying is price and games matter most. Now even is ps4 has better hardware they are on same playing field. Xbox is like US for video game. I have heard parents refer to their kid playing video game as playing Xbox even if it wasn't an xbox kind of like needing a Kleenex when that's the brand it's really tissue .

Yes and that is nothing more than your opinion, which holds no ground at all.

Well I hope you're right. I just feel like price may not be enough to even things up. I think games are what matter most and when ALL games are better on one console it's gonna be tough for the other to break through.

Who knows? Analysts tend to give too much weight to brand loyalty when the evidence consistently shows only a minority of gamers are beholden to one brand and most of those purchase early. It's why analysts couldn't see the 360 emerging in NA last gen. It's why none of them saw the Nintendo implosion this gen. Real people don't make console purchases the way analysts imagine, and that's why so much of their analysis is s$%^.

Quoting a video game analyst is like parroting a parrot.

Ya, that's a load. When they go to the register to pay, that is what they care about.

@Chutebox: You ask for an explanation, I give you one based on what I think, and then you dismiss it right off the bat. Okay.

It's possible, but not likely. Sony has a lot more momentum. At this point, MSFT is sending mixed signals to consumers and the product looks like a questionable investment. However, this will definitely help move more units.

If it moves enough, I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony counter with a price reduction after the holidays. At that point then, MSFT would be at another price disadvantage.

I didn't dismiss anything, I disagreed with it. You going to be ok?

I think so, but my self esteem really took a beating there.

Larger upfront cost are harder for some people to deal with. Yea the 499 or 450 at most places x1 with titanfall was better deal. But 399 cost of entry seems better to some. Then maybe a few weeks later they buy titanfall at 60. Sure they paid 460 for x1 and game with no kinect but some don't think like that.

It's like rent to own a 800 dollar tv and instead of 800 up front they pay 100 a month for a year and spend 1200 on same thing.

Hey OT,

The analyst group referenced for this study, the IDC, also put out this gem in '06:

@theshensolidus said:

Hey OT,

The analyst group referenced for this study, the IDC, also put out this gem in '06:

Well they at least got one of them right xD

Wow lol xfail

Takes that long with a 300,000 unit gap? Top lel.

Is IDC which is worse they failed big time with last gen prediction..

If they are smart they make a next COD bundle like they did with MW2 back in the day.

Because of course the PS4 won't sell a single unit from now on in the US, right?

2015 will be year of the Xbox!

Perhaps in the US, but not anywhere else

You say is not enough many don't think like you,also PSN+ is $10 cheaper and proven already,and when it comes to supporting its platforms sony is second to non.

On march the xbox one was been sold for $449 with titanfall,that is $10 cheaper than a PS4 with with 1 game,and still failed to outsell the PS4.

Also the PS4 allows you to change your HDD the xbox one doesn't without voiding your warranty.

Come on the PS3 at $600 dollars sold more units to retailers in its first 4 months than MS did,in fact 400K more than MS 5.5 million units vs MS 5.1 t he PS3 was $600 and $500 and most of the models were in fact $600 premium.

$399 sound better but when you have another $399 console alone side you that play the same games in better form,cost $10 less to play online and even let you change your HDD like you want you may be face with a tough challenge,No matter what the PS4 is stronger hardware and will always be.

Most people buy consoles with games how in hell $399 + 60 for 1 game sound better than $449 with one game.?

People no one will buy an xbox one to take it home without freaking games,they need 1 or 2 games + xbox live,it was cheaper last month than it will be now..lol

@charizard1605 said:

@theshensolidus said:

Hey OT,

The analyst group referenced for this study, the IDC, also put out this gem in '06:

Well they at least got one of them right xD

Always makes me chuckle. On a serious note, I read the study the IDC put forth this time around, and there are a ton of things I just don't agree with.

See, i'm not like a lot of people out there within the industry who believe the Xbox One's problems were a matter of price.Sure, hitting lower price-points will generate more demand, but I think the value offered in the $499 Xbox One was justified. Instead, the main issue with the Xbox One that has held it back from enjoying ever increasing demand and sales is a matter of perception.

The Xbox One just has poor marketing, not because of what it offers, but because of how marketing & overall vision for the device has been sold to consumers. I think even with the $499 box, the right marketing angle would've resonated greatly with consumer audiences in the US & UK, and the sales would've reflected that. Saying that they are going to focus on games now, while nice, is a bit confusing - even by Mehdi's own reasoning, they have had a very strong lineup of games, with the company not backing down on games ever since E3 of last year, so the library isn't the problem here. I don't think there is anything they can announce at this year's E3 that will change the current situation, simply because that would imply their lineup has been weak, when it totally hasn't.

Just looking at where the pre-orders are for the $399 sku on Amazon after 24 hours here in the US, I expected pent-up demand for a Kinect-less, lower priced box to put this console nearing the top of the charts. But, it hasn't. And all it did was reinforce that the Xbox One's main problem, much like the Surface had, is a problem of marketing, PR, and perception, and until they find a way to properly sell this console, the sales result aren't going to change.

I am thinking about getting one. Sunset looks cool and I haven't played Dead rising yet. I got just what I asked for: a kinectless bundle for $399. Sony better pull out all goodies at e3 because they are going to lose some momentum imo.

@charizard1605: Don't know if that will be the case or not, but I'd like to see the June NPD numbers in July.

In the U.S. it's plausible, but other countries prefer Sony. As Americans we should stick to our American products....LOL.

When Halo 5 comes out, I predict the cheaper One will move many units. Will it catch up to the PS4? Probably not anytime soon. I think 2015 is incredibly optimistic - even if just limited to Canada and the US. But this gen just got a whole hell of a lot more interesting... it's gone from being a forgone conclusion that the PS4 will win bigtime to the possibility that they will be neck and neck as they were last gen. The PS4 sold great in the latter half of it's lifespan despite it's often sub-720p multiplats, and I think the One can sell well without having the best looking versions too. Software sales will be in Sony's favor, but console sales may equal out.

Supposedly this prediction was offered before Kinect got axed. Anyway, I just don't see his reasoning the momentum behind the ps4 right now is downright Beastly.

...I don't remember you criticizing them when they predicted the PS4 would lead with 51 million sales

Meh, whatever. As long as none of them pull a Dreamcast and go belly up, I win.