Unemployment Rate Falls to 7.8%

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#51 Posted by cslayer211 (833 posts) -

[QUOTE="cslayer211"][QUOTE="GreySeal9"]

Of course the debarte ruined his week, but the fact that the unemployment rate is below 8 will have way longer legs than a mediocre debate performance, which can be rectified next debate.

GreySeal9

Yeah, but Romney will just counter with real unemployment/say Obama promised it wouldn't go above 8% if his stimulus was passed. It really doesn't feel like it's getting any better either with 1.3% GDP growth.

Regardless of Romney's counter statements, he lost a reliable attack line and this news undoubtedly helps Obama make the case that we are moving in the right directions. From now on, Romney's unemployment-based attacks are going to seem somewhat flatter.

Here's a good article on the subject.

His line of attack won't change. He will still claim it's above 8% with real unemployment plus say that the BLS unemployment doesn't paint the whole picture. There is also another jobs report in November before the election that could change the unemployment number.
#52 Posted by DevilMightCry (3495 posts) -

[QUOTE="GreySeal9"]

[QUOTE="cslayer211"] Yeah, but Romney will just counter with real unemployment/say Obama promised it wouldn't go above 8% if his stimulus was passed. It really doesn't feel like it's getting any better either with 1.3% GDP growth.cslayer211

Regardless of Romney's counter statements, he lost a reliable attack line and this news undoubtedly helps Obama make the case that we are moving in the right directions. From now on, Romney's unemployment-based attacks are going to seem somewhat flatter.

Here's a good article on the subject.

His line of attack won't change. He will still claim it's above 8% with real unemployment plus say that the BLS unemployment doesn't paint the whole picture. There is also another jobs report in November before the election that could change the unemployment number.

It doesn't matter what UE number is. It could be 3%, people know and feel the economy everyday.Talk to anyone and they will tell you of some who lost their job or is working PT, or had to downgrade in pay. People know that we owe too much debt and that the economy is fragile. We are gaining jobs at a recessionary rate and out money is worth less today than when Bush was President. We are gaining jobs. They are just not jobs you can feed a family with.

#53 Posted by Mafiree (3704 posts) -
Unemployment Rate is a far from perfect metric. But, this is a sign that the economy is continuing to grow slowly. The upward revisions for July and August really helped.
#54 Posted by sSubZerOo (43199 posts) -
[QUOTE="Serraph105"]

well that's surprisingly good news. Politics aside we have had an 8% barrier for far too long, and this could boost people's general moral.

LJS9502_basic
It just means some people were dropped from the unemployment rolls....not that they found jobs. You can only stay on unemployment for a specific number of weeks.

Actually people looking for work increased during this time..
#56 Posted by Serraph105 (28082 posts) -
[QUOTE="LJS9502_basic"][QUOTE="Serraph105"]

well that's surprisingly good news. Politics aside we have had an 8% barrier for far too long, and this could boost people's general moral.

sSubZerOo
It just means some people were dropped from the unemployment rolls....not that they found jobs. You can only stay on unemployment for a specific number of weeks.

Actually people looking for work increased during this time..

yeah I actually heard that on NPR today. Also this was part of looking back earlier in the year (which is something they do every year) and re-adjusting their original numbers. Also I got a job in August, but don't worry because I'm just a small part of a conspiracy.
#57 Posted by Nonstop-Madness (9477 posts) -
Part time employment is up and more and more people are leaving the job market, therefore lowering unemployment rates. The real number we should be looking at is the nnumber of unemployed people + the amount of underemployed people (people who are making less money at their current job compared to what they use to make) + the amount of people who have given up looking for work.
#58 Posted by MgamerBD (17550 posts) -

I love how people still try to kill good news. Stay classy politics.

#59 Posted by hydr0_32 (420 posts) -

This must mean Santa Claus is real too!!!

#60 Posted by Ace6301 (21389 posts) -
[QUOTE="GreySeal9"]

[QUOTE="cslayer211"]I figured that it would drop. Even though only 114,000 jobs were created, there were a ton of part time jobs also created. It definitely makes the president look better than he did, but I think his horrible debate performance ruined his week.cslayer211

Of course the debarte ruined his week, but the fact that the unemployment rate is below 8 will have way longer legs than a mediocre debate performance, which can be rectified next debate.

Yeah, but Romney will just counter with real unemployment/say Obama promised it wouldn't go above 8% if his stimulus was passed. It really doesn't feel like it's getting any better either with 1.3% GDP growth.

I really hope you guys aren't getting buthurt over promises made by politicians down there. Cause that would be hilarious. I really don't think anyone believed Obama could do that and I just as much doubt that either candidate's job plan is going to be responsible for 12 million jobs being created (they both promise that).
#61 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -
Yeah right. The real number is closer to 16 and those numbers don't take properly into account the number of people who left the workforce. So if lets say, 100k people left the workforce the unemployment would drop giving you the idea the situation is better than it is.
#62 Posted by dave123321 (34088 posts) -
Oh politics stuff
#63 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Here is a way better look.
#64 Posted by WhiteKnight77 (12018 posts) -

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Here is a way better look.TheWalkingGhost

I think these stats are more realistic as once people run out of unemployement insurance, they are no longer claimed as unemployed and there are still many people that haven't found work.

#65 Posted by surrealnumber5 (23044 posts) -

Exactly. Something smells here.

Not saying there is a conspiracy or the numbers are fudged, but something doesn't add up.

If you look at the entire set of numbers, the actual amount of people that are out of work went up from last month, it is just that more people have given up looking for work, a group which is NOT counted in the unemployment numbers. Another issue with this, is the reason the rate dropped is because most of the jobs produced are PART-TIME jobs, not full-time work.

I just love how Obama tanked the debates and now we get this. The only sector to produce jobs was government jobs. (I am sure the Obama faithful will hammer me for this)

I would love to see the real unemployment numbers, not the numbers that do not count those that have given up looking for employment.

Another thing I am sure will happem, Obama will take full credit for this. The real credit should go to the governers of the states that actually produced results...if any credit should really be given at all.

danjammer69
employment = (population * participation rate)* (1-unemployment rate) if you wish to know the employment rate set population to 1
#66 Posted by danjammer69 (4120 posts) -

[QUOTE="danjammer69"][QUOTE="Barbariser"]

This isn't decisive. All the Republicvnts have to do is come in with U6 figures and call it the "REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE" and the sad part is that they'll actually believe that bullsh!t because their economic knowledge is beyond terrible.

Barbariser

Yes, you are so right. Every Republican's knowledge of the economy is terrible. Brilliant. I openly admit my own bias, but I will rarely spout off complete nonsense about democrats like that. It just sounds outright stupid. You do know that not every conservative/republican is a gun toting, jesus preaching, close-minded evolution denying idiot right? The only reason I call myself a republican is because of the way I have voted the last 20 years. I am certainly not close minded and I will NEVER vote right down party lines., and there are many people just like me. I believe that abortion should be allowed in certain circumstances, a certain amount (although minimal) role of government is important, some social programs are vital (but I think any form of welfare should be short-term), poor people should not be neglected, that gun-control should not be non-existant, Embryonic Stem Cell Research should be funded heavily, Euthanasia & Physician-assisted suicide should be a DYING person's choice, I support gay marriage, and also keeping the church out of government and schools, ... I can go on and on. But there are also many other views I have that I truly believe in. What I find most important beyond just about anything is a strong military and national defense program. I believe in free market, LEGAL immigration, I despise Affirmative Action, believe in the death penalty, I also think that the School Voucher Program is a good idea as parents should have the right to choose good schools for their children. I think we should be drilling for oil on a much larger scale in order to create energy independence for our country, and I am completely against nationalization of vital industries (gas, electric). I would also like the government to stay the hell away from my private property and that of others, especially when it concerns Eminent Domain. Also, the Social Security System in the US needs some bigtime overhaul. What I am getting at by telling you all of this is that we are not all the same (Republicans) and do not all have the same identical views. So you can continue to lump us all in together like you do, since we are all stupid when it comes to the economy and pretty much everything else that does not correspond with your views.

I'm sorry you wasted so much time talking about something irrelevant to what I said due to miscommunication. A Republicvnt is a specific subset of Republicans, and in no way encompasses the entire party of the G.O.P., just an extraordinarily and frighteningly large portion of it.

My bad man. I just took it as a typical derogatory term for a republican. Which is I guess what I consider myself, since I am not exactly conservative based on my views. I am way to center/moderate to consider myself that.

My lengthy rant/explanation wasnt directed at you specifically. Its just a response to what alot, might I say the majority of what liberals tend to think of the GOP. That we are all far right, down the line voters with no heart who only care about guns, god, and keeping homosexuals from having rights. Honestly this 2 party **** is tiring anyhow. If I found a democrat that I actually liked I would not keep my party affiliation from voting for him/her.

Unfortunately I cannot speak for the rest of my "party"

#67 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -

[QUOTE="TheWalkingGhost"]http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Here is a way better look.WhiteKnight77

I think these stats are more realistic as once people run out of unemployement insurance, they are no longer claimed as unemployed and there are still many people that haven't found work.

Quiet you! These numbers are amazing! Obama is the savior!
#68 Posted by Abbeten (2898 posts) -
[QUOTE="WhiteKnight77"]

[QUOTE="TheWalkingGhost"]http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Here is a way better look.TheWalkingGhost

I think these stats are more realistic as once people run out of unemployement insurance, they are no longer claimed as unemployed and there are still many people that haven't found work.

Quiet you! These numbers are amazing! Obama is the savior!

rolleyes
#69 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -
[QUOTE="TheWalkingGhost"][QUOTE="WhiteKnight77"]

I think these stats are more realistic as once people run out of unemployement insurance, they are no longer claimed as unemployed and there are still many people that haven't found work.

Abbeten
Quiet you! These numbers are amazing! Obama is the savior!

rolleyes

 .
#70 Posted by Abbeten (2898 posts) -
What a clever image macro. Look at you, raking in all those internet points.
#71 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -
What a clever image macro. Look at you, raking in all those internet points.Abbeten
Quit while your behind.
#72 Posted by Abbeten (2898 posts) -
Behind? You're adorable. But maybe you're right. I should just make posts that substitute smugness in place of legitimate content. Then I shall have the respect of all the internet.
#73 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -
Behind? You're adorable. But maybe you're right. I should just make posts that substitute smugness in place of legitimate content. Then I shall have the respect of all the internet.Abbeten
Not very bright are you? But keep being a hypocrite, suits you well. Just move on.
#74 Posted by leviathan91 (7763 posts) -

Since when did everyone start caring about real unemployment rate? You do realize that includes people who don't want to work? You know, people like the elderly and house moms?

#75 Posted by TheWalkingGhost (5315 posts) -

Since when did everyone start caring about real unemployment rate? You do realize that includes people who don't want to work? You know, people like the elderly and house moms?

leviathan91
Because it also includes people who are of working age who want to work but aren't included in the official numbers? Look at the definition of it.
#76 Posted by Abbeten (2898 posts) -
We don't use U-6 because it's a new statistic which confounds comparison with with historical parallels.
#77 Posted by surrealnumber5 (23044 posts) -

Since when did everyone start caring about real unemployment rate? You do realize that includes people who don't want to work? You know, people like the elderly and house moms?

leviathan91
153% incorrect, unemployment number discount "discouraged workers" "Persons who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force. This category includes retired persons, students, those taking care of children or other family members, and others who are neither working nor seeking work. Information is collected on their desire for and availability for work, job search activity in the prior year, and reasons for not currently searching. See also Labor force and Discouraged workers." "Discouraged workers are a subset of persons marginally attached to the labor force. The marginally attached are those persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months, but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, discouraged workers were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them or there were none for which they would qualify. See also: Not in the labor force and Alternative measures of labor underutilization." http://www.bls.gov/ so if you have been unemployed for a year and are not telling the government you are looking for a job, you do not exist.
#78 Posted by surrealnumber5 (23044 posts) -

Since when did everyone start caring about real unemployment rate? You do realize that includes people who don't want to work? You know, people like the elderly and house moms?

leviathan91

actual employment is in the 50 to 59% rang. that includes everyone. why do you make sh!t up, if you dont know.... find out.

#79 Posted by Barbariser (6724 posts) -

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm" title="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm">http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Here is a way better look.TheWalkingGhost

I don't think people use the U3 figure to say "the economy is good", they use it to say "the economy has gotten better".

A U3 of 7.8% is terrible on its own, you don't need to know the U6 figure (which is inherently higher than U3 at all times) to say that. The important issue is the change in unemployment, and in that case it doesn't matter which figure you use, the unemployment rate has gone down by either 1.2 or 1.7 points since this time last year.


#80 Posted by mrmusicman247 (17577 posts) -
[QUOTE="Serraph105"]

well that's surprisingly good news. Politics aside we have had an 8% barrier for far too long, and this could boost people's general moral.

LJS9502_basic
It just means some people were dropped from the unemployment rolls....not that they found jobs. You can only stay on unemployment for a specific number of weeks.

this is what i was thinking
#81 Posted by -Sun_Tzu- (17384 posts) -
[QUOTE="LJS9502_basic"][QUOTE="Serraph105"]

well that's surprisingly good news. Politics aside we have had an 8% barrier for far too long, and this could boost people's general moral.

mrmusicman247
It just means some people were dropped from the unemployment rolls....not that they found jobs. You can only stay on unemployment for a specific number of weeks.

this is what i was thinking

Actually labor force participation went up last month.
#82 Posted by surrealnumber5 (23044 posts) -
[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"][QUOTE="mrmusicman247"][QUOTE="LJS9502_basic"] It just means some people were dropped from the unemployment rolls....not that they found jobs. You can only stay on unemployment for a specific number of weeks.

this is what i was thinking

Actually labor force participation went up last month.

sun is correct, if you want your foil hats chalk the change to the billion dollar political campaigns or shoot for the part time employment argument.
#83 Posted by mrmusicman247 (17577 posts) -
[QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"] Actually labor force participation went up last month.

i'm part of that statistic
#84 Posted by -Sun_Tzu- (17384 posts) -
[QUOTE="mrmusicman247"][QUOTE="-Sun_Tzu-"] Actually labor force participation went up last month.

i'm part of that statistic

Thank you for your economic patriotism.
#85 Posted by WhiteKnight77 (12018 posts) -

[QUOTE="WhiteKnight77"]

[QUOTE="TheWalkingGhost"]http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm Here is a way better look.TheWalkingGhost

I think these stats are more realistic as once people run out of unemployement insurance, they are no longer claimed as unemployed and there are still many people that haven't found work.

Quiet you! These numbers are amazing! Obama is the savior!

I wonder what you would say if someone disagreed with you. :o