Freaking idiot, why do these idiots even exist? Getting all of his predictions wrong 5 years in a row is telling
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Freaking idiot, why do these idiots even exist? Getting all of his predictions wrong 5 years in a row is telling
Didn't watch the video, but I'm assuming it's about inflation. I'm also assuming none of you have any idea what the fvck you're talking about when it comes to monetary policy, economics, and finance.
There is indeed a risk of inflation beyond the Fed's 2% target. The monetary base has expanded to a point that has never been seen before over the past half decade while the velocity of money and the money multiplier are at extreme lows. Not to mention, banks are keeping excess reserves at the Fed to an extent that's never been seen before (in 2008 they enacted a law which allows banks to collect on reserve deposits). That means that banks are keeping more money than legally required in reserves due to the risk of the credit market not matching the rewards (record low interest rates means extremely low returns on lending, obviously). What happens when interest rates rise? The money that's currently sitting idle is going to be injected back into more liquid mediums.
In order for inflation to occur, the velocity of money has to increase. As previously stated, it has been and is very depressed. Inflation isn't just caused by an increase in the money supply. The monetary base is the kindling, the velocity of money is the fuel, interest rates and increased borrowing demand will be the spark.
The Fed is trying to cause inflation as central banks are scared shitless of ending up like Japan, then reel it in by hiking up interest rates at the exact right time. If they mistime it, rates would have to be hiked to an extreme level to brink back price stability (ie Volcker era). This is very difficult to do and the Fed has an awful history of telling where the economy currently is let alone where it is going (ie. Big Ben stating there's no cause for concern in the sub prime mortgage market in 2007). The indicator for inflation is also lagging. I mean, reaaally lagging, as are many of the Fed's indicators for which they put weight on. By the time the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate based on outdated data it could be too late.
As soon as you see reliable and non-noisy data come out about inflation you're going to see the stock market react very negatively, as they know rate hikes are coming.
I'm not saying there's going to be hyper inflation but it will be relatively high.
With that being said the US is currently the best positioned compared to the rest of the world, especially the Eurozone and Asia.
Also, LOL at CNBC. They're a joke. No one that works in finance watches that shit.
Didn't watch the video, but I'm assuming it's about inflation. I'm also assuming none of you have any idea what the fvck you're talking about when it comes to monetary policy, economics, and finance.
There is indeed a risk of inflation beyond the Fed's 2% target. The monetary base has expanded to a point that has never been seen before over the past half decade while the velocity of money and the money multiplier are at extreme lows. Not to mention, banks are keeping excess reserves at the Fed to an extent that's never been seen before (in 2008 they enacted a law which allows banks to get paid based on reserve deposits). That means that banks are keeping more money than legally required in reserves due to the risk of the credit market not matching the rewards (record low interest rates means extremely low returns on lending, obviously). What happens when interest rates rise? The money that's currently sitting idle is going to be injected back into more liquid mediums.
In order for inflation to occur, the velocity of money has to increase. As previously stated, it has been and is very depressed. Inflation isn't just caused by an increase in the money supply. The monetary base is the kindling, the velocity of money is the fuel, interest rates and increased borrowing demand will be the spark.
The Fed is trying to cause inflation as central banks are scared shitless of ending up like Japan, then reel it in by hiking up interest rates at the exact right time. If they mistime it, rates would have to be hiked to an extreme level to brink back price stability (ie Volcker era). This is very difficult to do and the Fed has an awful history of telling where the economy currently is let alone where it is going (ie. Big Ben stating there's no cause for concern in the sub prime mortgage market in 2007). The indicator for inflation is also lagging. I mean, reaaally lagging, as are many of the Fed's indicators for which they put weight on. By the time the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate based on outdated data it could be too late.
As soon as you see reliable and non-noisy data come out about inflation you're going to see the stock market react very negatively, as they know rate hikes are coming.
I'm not saying there's going to be hyper inflation but it will be relatively high.
With that being said the US is currently the best positioned compared to the rest of the world, especially the Eurozone and Asia.
Also, LOL at CNBC. They're a joke. No one that works in finance watches that shit.
actually the video was mostly just some guy yelling
@lostrib: It was Rick Santelli. He's usually shown in the pits and gets very passionate (obviously too passionate haha). He's not really a Tea Party person, just a libertarian/fiscal conservative type. One of his mains concerns was inflation, which the other guy said he's been wrong about among other things. I actually heard him mention money velocity through his screaming, which he has been right about. The Fed has been unable to do anything about the low levels of money velocity, which is needed for inflation to occur. That's why the whole world, especially Europe and Japan, are taking extreme measures to increase it, including negative deposit rates.
The only thing that he's been wrong about is the timing of inflation. It's very, very difficult to predict when, obviously. However, is wrong about the USD. Thanks to central banks around the world and other countries' fiscal policy, the dollar is going to be relatively strong.
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